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  1. phil

    SPX WEEKLYGood morning and WTF????

    Futures are up 1% thanks to BOJ raising their asset purchase target to 80 TRILLION YEN – TRIPLING their purchases of stock and property funds.  WTF???

    Japan’s Inflation, Job Creation Slowdown a Blow to AbenomicsJapan’s inflation rate fell to its lowest in nearly a year and a measure of job creation worsened for the first time in more than three years, highlighting the divergence between developments in the economy and policy makers’ optimistic projections.

    FXY WEEKLYThat announcement shot the Nikkei up 5%, yes 5% (there should be a rule about that) in a single session!  That's 16,665 on /NK – the mark of the Blankfein!  All I can say is WOW!  Also, what a great example of how you should never leave Futures trades overnight (or unattended) as this move came so quick – there was no way out.  

    Tempting though it may be to knee-jerk go short here (17,227, 2,007, 4,141 and 1,163) – those moves are coming against a Dollar that just flew up to 86.70 (0.5%) so best to stick to our plan and stay neutral for the moment.  

    Perhaps we will have an opportunity to buy out some SQQQ or DXD short callers to lean a bit more bearish into the weekend – we'll have to see.  

    It's now 110 Yen to the Dollar so 80Tn Yen ain't what it used to be ($727) and it's "only" a $15Tn Yen ($136Bn) increase from their previous target but all the papers are headlining 80Tn and that is just a stunning-looking amount of money – especially with the huge boost towards the markets and not bonds.  On the whole, they raised the stock-buying portion of the 80Tn from 8% to 25% so the real impact to stocks is 17% of $727Bn or $124Bn so, essentially, the entirety of the boost is directed at the market.  

    NYMO  DAILYSo, if you are caught too short, not much to do but ride it out.   This is like a huge wave hitting your ship, unless you are very unbalanced, you may tilt but hopefully you won't capsize and this too shall pass.  

    Along with Japan's 5% pop (and they closed there so maybe more to come on Monday), the rest of Asia was up 1.25%

    Oil, meanwhile, dove to $80.50 on the strong Dollar with gold $1,175, silver $16.05 (and  I like a long on /SI off the $16 line with tight stops below), copper $3.08, nat gas $3.88 and gasoline also diving to $2.14 and I like /RB long over that line too.  See, there's always something to play…

    Another stock exchange glitch, but no trading halt

    Fed Exit Could Spark Slump in All Markets, ATP CEO SaysThe head of Denmark’s biggest pension fund says his main concern now is how to ride out what may turn into a simultaneous slump across asset classes as central bank liquidity is withdrawn.

    Jim Grant On Complexity: The Hidden Cost Of Central Bank Actions

    Goldman(GS) Warns Midterm Elections Raise Risk Around Fiscal Deadlines

    Cash-Strapped Americans Are An Ominous Threat To Retailers

    Shadow Banking Assets Increase By $5 Trillion To Record $75 Trillion, 120% Of Global GDP

    US-based stock funds attract $8.8 bln over week, all in ETFs

    Big Banks Brace for Penalties in ProbesCiti Restates Earnings as It and Other Lenders Reserve Cash for Deal in Forex Investigation. Big banks in the U.S. and Europe are stockpiling billions to pay for a potential trans-Atlantic settlement of allegations that they manipulated foreign-exchange rates as talks heat up with regulators on both continents.

    Algos Please Ignore: Citi(C) Slashes Previously Reported Net Income Due To "Legal Investigations" Over FX Rigging Probe

    OPEC Boosts Oil Output as Prices Slide to Four-Year Low. OPEC countries boosted oil output to a 14-month high in October as crude futures sank into a bear market, a Bloomberg survey showed yesterday. Production by the 12-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries climbed by 53,000 barrels a day to 30.974 million, led by gains in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Libya, according to the survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. Last month’s total was revised 14,000 barrels a day lower to 30.921 million because of changes to the Iraqi, Kuwaiti, Nigerian and Qatari estimates.

    Emerging-Market Currencies Hurt by Oil, Metals: Chart of the Day

    ConocoPhillips(COP) Becomes First to Cut Spending on Lower OilConocoPhillips became the first major oil company to announce plans to reduce spending due to falling crude prices as drilling in some emerging North American fields becomes less profitable. The third-largest U.S. energy producer can meet its target to boost production by as much as 5 percent a year even as it reduces annual spending to below $16 billion, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Ryan Lance told investors today. U.S. oil prices have declined 24 percent from a high of $107.26 a barrel in June because of increased North American supplies and reduced global demand forecasts.

    Iron ore price forecast to fall to $US75/tonneAnalysts at research house Morningstar have become the latest to significantly lower their iron ore forecasts with more pain to come for local miners.

    Starbucks(SBUX) Tumbles After Reporting Weak Earnings

    LinkedIn(LNKD) revenue jumps 45 pct as companies hire moreCorporate networking site LinkedIn Corp reported a 45 percent rise in quarterly revenue as more businesses used its services to hire staff.

    GOPRO(GPRO) SHARES SPIKE AFTER EARNINGS BEAT

    Obamacare Faces New Threat as Supreme Court Weighs AppealThe fate of President Barack Obama’s health-care law is again in the hands of the U.S. Supreme Court. Two years after upholding the law by a single vote, the justices are weighing whether to hear a Republican-backed appeal that would block people in 36 states from getting tax subsidies to buy insurance. The justices are scheduled to discuss the matter tomorrow, with an announcement coming as soon as Nov. 3. ?

    Chinese Authorities Are Shocked By The Results Of The Relaxed 'One Child' PolicyFar fewer Chinese couples applied to have a second child than expected after a relaxation of the country's "one child" policy, state-run media reported Thursday, highlighting the ageing nation's demographic challenges.

    Merkel Downplays Incursions as Russia Probes NATO DefenseGerman Chancellor Angela Merkel played down the significance of incursions by Russian jets as Vladimir Putin probed Europe’s air defenses for a third day. “In the last few months I’ve seen very robust exercises with the Russian army, but I’m not acutely concerned about grave airspace violations,” Merkel said at a press conference in Berlin yesterday. Allied jets tracked Russian fighter aircraft along Europe’s fringes, bringing the number of interceptions so far in 2014 to 100, three times last year’s total, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization said in a statement.

    Russia Weaponizes The Arctic: Will Build 13 Airfields And 10 Radar Stations To Meet "Unwelcome Guests"

    Russia Agrees to Terms With Ukraine Over Gas SupplyRussia agreed to terms for restoring natural-gas exports to Ukraine, laying the groundwork to prevent residents going without heat as temperatures drop. The gas negotiations, brokered by the European Union, came as pro-Russian rebels stepped up attacks on Kiev government forces. European leaders said they hoped the deal would help improve ties between the two countries. 

    Poland Is Preparing For A Potential Russian Invasion

     

    Russia Seen Raising Rates as Ruble Plunge Feeds Inflation. Russia’s central bank will probably increase its benchmark interest rate for the fourth time this year, bringing it to the highest level since it was introduced 13 months ago, to halt a currency run that’s stoking inflation. The Bank of Russia will raise its key rate to 8.5 percent from 8 percent, according to 22 of 31 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Two predict a move to 9 percent, with increases of a quarter-point and 75 basis points forecast by one analyst each. Five economists see no change. The central bank will announce its decision at about 1:30 p.m. in Moscow today. ?

    Here's a great photo for those of you who don't believe in evolution:

    98% genetic match to humans!  





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Phil's Favorites

Congress is considering privacy legislation - be afraid

 

Congress is considering privacy legislation – be afraid

Courtesy of Jeff Sovern, St. John's University

Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis called privacy the “right to be let alone.” Perhaps Congress should give states trying to protect consumer data the same right.

For years, a gridlocked Congress ignored privacy, apart from occasionally scolding companies such as Equifax and Marriott after their major data breaches. In its absence, ...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Key Events This Week: Trade War, EU Elections, Durables, PMIs And Fed Minutes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Looking at this week's key events, Deutsche Bank's Craig Nicol writes that while the unpredictable nature of US-China trade developments will likely continue to be the main focus for markets again next week, we also have the European Parliament elections circus to look forward to as well as various survey reports including the flash May PMIs which may offer some insight into the impact of trade escalation on economic data. The FOMC and ECB meeting minutes are also due, along with a heavy calendar of Fed officials speaking.

The European Parliament elections will kick off next Thursday with voting continuing into the weekend across the continent, with results expected on Sunday. With the elections surrounded by internal and external challenges for the EU, members di...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will S&P 500 Double Top Derail The Rally?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The rally off the December stock market lows has been strong, to say the least. The S&P 500 rallied 25 percent before hitting and testing the 2018 high.

The old highs proved to be formidable resistance and ushered in some volatility in May… and a 5 percent pullback.

In today’s 2-pack, we look at that resistance level – could that be a double top? We can see similar patterns develop on the S&P 500 Index and its Equal Weight counterpart.

Both indexes are testing short-term Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent decline at point (2).

What takes place here after potential double top highs will be important. Stay tuned...



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

Morgan Stanley Upgrades Target After Recent Pullback

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT)’s recent pullback is more on the mark for Morgan Stanley, which upgraded the stock.

The Analyst

Morgan Stanley’s Simeon Gutman upgraded Target from Underweight to Equal-weight with a $67 price target.

The Thesis

Morgan Stanley sees less downside follow...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.

...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



more from Bitcoin

Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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