Archive for November, 2014

Swing trading portfolio – week of December 1st, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here


Swing trading virtual portfolio

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UPDATE: Jefferies Upgrades Ashland As Oil Volatility Increases

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related ASH
UPDATE: Jefferies Upgrades Ashland
Stocks Hitting 52-Week Highs

In a report published Monday, Jefferies analyst Laurence Alexander upgraded the rating on Ashland (NYSE: ASH) from Hold to Buy, and raised the price target from $123.00 to $147.00.

In the report, Jefferies noted, “The recent downdraft in oil prices implies a flatter petrochemical cost curve, less demand for NGVs, a downshift in energy infrastructure capex, and a margin tailwind for downstream chemicals. Tilt towards the consumer, away from the cracker, and stay wary of whipsaws in soy (biodiesel) and corn (ethanol).”

Ashland closed on Friday at $114.05.

Latest Ratings for ASH

Date Firm Action From To
Dec 2014 Jefferies Upgrades Hold Buy
Nov 2014 Monness Crespi Hardt Maintains Buy
Aug 2014 UBS Initiates Coverage on Buy

View More Analyst Ratings for ASH
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Jefferies Laurence AlexanderAnalyst Color Upgrades Analyst Ratings

Jefferies Comments On 3D Printing Companies Following Industry Conference

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DDD
Bank Of America Comments On 3D Systems & Stratasys Amid Euromold Fair
Benzinga's M&A Chatter for Monday November 24, 2014 Debuts First 3D Printer for 3D Systems (Fox Business)

Jason North of Jefferies recently attended Euromold, the largest 3D printing industry conference in the world. The analyst met with management teams from many notable 3D Printing companies and detailed his findings in a note on Monday.

According to North the entire industry is gaining momentum in metal 3D printing, but is experiencing “limited visibility” into SLS speed improvements. The analyst adds that the runway for prototyping is longer than consensus expects, but the ramp of full manufacturing for 3D printing is "likely further away."

North states that Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ) now has a "bigger seat at the table" and that he is "incrementally more positive" on the company's 3D printing efforts.

"We do not see fundamental technical issues and think Hewlett-Packard's main hurdles have more to do with execution of its go-to-market strategy, product commercialization and ecosystem development," North wrote.

Notable Company Mentions

Arcam's (OTC: AMAVF) product offerings represents a "mixed plate" as its 10kW new product may not be as fast as initially expected and may not launch in the second quarter. On the other hand, the analyst notes that his checks suggest General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) has recently started full testing of the EBM-produced low-pressure turbine blades which are "going well so far."

Proto Labs Inc (NYSE: PRLB) continues to "clean its plate" as the company's management identified areas where it could assume additional investments in marketing to accelerate growth.

Stratasys, Ltd. (NASDAQ: SSYS) detailed its product announcement prior to the conference but did expand on expanded distribution agreement with Staples and Home Depot for its MakerBot.

3D Systems Corporation (NYSE: DDD) new ProX 400 was "by far the largest printer" at the show, according to North. The analyst suspects that the company is "gradually shifting" the sourcing of its jetting nozzles from an external supplier to the technology it recently acquired from Xerox.

Latest Ratings for DDD

Date Firm Action From To
Nov 2014 Jefferies Maintains Buy
Nov 2014 Imperial Capital Maintains Outperform
Nov 2014 Citigroup Maintains Neutral

View More Analyst Ratings for DDD
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: 3D Printing Arcam Euromold Jason North JefferiesAnalyst Color News Analyst Ratings

Options Outlook Amid Heavy Week Of Economic Events

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The scoreboard was somewhat bearish as last week came to a close, even though the Nasdaq 100 closed +0.46 percent, the Dow was flat and S&P 500 came in at -0.25 percent. Small caps were hit hardest at -1.46 percent. Crude oil's price crash was the focus of the day on Friday.

The exuberance in the retail trades led names like Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) to close higher.

Bystander victims of the drop in oil included stocks like Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) that benefit from higher oil. Conversely, airlines benefited from the prospect of low oil prices for longer.

The overall price action in S&P and Nasdaq was dome-shaped intraday Friday, which is not bullish (see charts below).


Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) stood on the sidelines closing flattish. Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) shrugged off the EU break-up decision.

A Note About Oil

A few weeks ago, the market chatter was that low oil prices was a result of a deal between Saudi Arabia and the United States to hurt Russia. It's looking now like it was more of an OPEC move to hurt United States; Russia was collateral damage.

NDX Note

At this recent run rate, the Nasdaq could soon approach a dotcom bubble, and with that, the level of conviction from new buyers here is fragile at best.


This week is heavy with economic events that are potential market movers, most notably on Thursday and Friday when traders will be looking for two things to move markets even higher.

These include economic reports from the United States to show continued strength and further fuel the theory that money will flow into U.S. equities as the dollar remains strong.

And the eurozone to show continued weakness to further strengthen ECB President Mario Draghi's argument for QE sooner rather than later. Thursday markets will have the chance to decide on that front.

Looking Ahead

Traders should be on the lookout for continued bullish sentiment. The bears have not been as…
continue reading

Mid-Day Losers From December 1: Tesla, Best Buy, 3D Systems, Big Lot, CTC Media

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related BBY
Global Equities' Chowdhry On Apple Flash Crash: 'I Would Not Read Too Much Into It'
Wedbush: Best Buy Lost Out On 'Few' Purchases During Mobile Site Outage
Making Money With Charles Payne: 11/25/14 (Fox Business)

CTC Media, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTCM) -11% – The decline may be a result of the appointment of the company's new Chief Legal Officer Maxim Bobin announced Monday.

Big Lots, Inc. (NYSE: BIG) -6% –  J.P. Morgan analysts downgraded the stock to Neutral and lowered the price target to $51.

3D Systems Corporation (NYSE: DDD) -5% – Shares are lower following negative commentary from analysts at two firms.

Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE: BBY) -5% – Wedbush analysts commented on Best Buy saying it lost a few sales due to its mobile site outage.

Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) -5% – Shares dropped following a report that BMW is not interested in acquiring a stake in Tesla.

Posted-In: Intraday Update Movers

US Stock Futures Down; Crude Oil Tumbles Over 1%

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DE
Barclays Lowers Deere & Company Price Target
Deere & Company Defended At Credit Suisse Following Lowered Guidance
Some Firms Will Benefit from Falling Corn Prices (Fox Business)
Related TRMB
Trimble Acquires UK-based Amtech Group To Expand Its Global Presence In The Mechanical, Electrical And Plumbing Market
Midday Losers From October 31: Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Bottomline Technologies, Digital Globe

Pre-open movers

US stock futures traded lower in early pre-market trade. The Markit PMI manufacturing index for November will be released at 9:45 a.m. ET, while the ISM manufacturing composite index for November will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET. Crude oil futures fell 1.10% to trade at $65.41 a barrel. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 70 points to 17,742.00, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures fell 9.40 points to 2,056.90. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index declined 9.50 points to 4,328.75.

A Peek Into Global Markets

European markets were lower today, with the Spanish Ibex Index dropping 0.89%, STOXX Europe 600 Index falling 0.45%. German DAX 30 index slipped 0.41%, French CAC 40 Index declined 0.56% and London’s FTSE 100 Index dropped 0.96%. The eurozone’s manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.1 in November, versus 50.4 in October.

In Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average rose 0.75%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 2.58%, China’s Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.10% and India’s Sensex declined 0.47%.

Broker Recommendation
Analysts at JP Morgan upgraded Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) from Underweight to Neutral. The price target for Deere has been raised from $83 to $90.

Deere’s shares closed at $86.62 on Friday.

Breaking news

  • Trimble (NASDAQ: TRMB) announced today that it has acquired privately-held Nexala, a provider of enterprise solutions for the rail transport industry, headquartered in Dublin, Ireland. To read the full news, click here.

continue reading

UPDATE: Bank Of America Upgrades Groupon As Recent Progress Validates Turnaround

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related GRPN
Groupon Gets A Look At More Coupon Competition
UPDATE: Barrington Research Reiterates On Groupon On Marketplace Transition Progress
Yodle Faces Hurdles in Bid to Conquer Local Ad Market (Fox Business)

On Monday, analysts at Bank of America upgraded shares of Groupon Inc (NASDAQ: GRPN) from Neutral to Buy and raised the price target from $8 to $9.50.

Paul Bieber finds the recent progress the company has made validates its turnaround and feels "the downward estimate revision cycle could be ending."

Bieber highlighted positives moving forward:

  1. The company has a large and growing customer base.
  2. E-mail headwinds are diminishing, which should aid local billings growth.
  3. New disclosures indicate stable cohort spending.
  4. Easy local billings comps and potential fourth quarter acceleration.
  5. Ticket Monster growth acceleration over the last several quarters has increased its value.
  6. Groupon has strategic asset value. With the stock down 36 percent year-to-date "vs. NASD +14 percent," Bieber feels sentiment is poised to turn more positive in 2015.

Shares of Groupon recently traded at $7.84, up 4 percent Monday morning.

Latest Ratings for GRPN

Date Firm Action From To
Dec 2014 Bank of America Upgrades Neutral Buy
Nov 2014 Brean Capital Maintains Buy
Nov 2014 UBS Maintains Neutral

View More Analyst Ratings for GRPN
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Bank of America Paul BieberAnalyst Color Upgrades Price Target Analyst Ratings

Lions Gate Entertainment Shares Trending Higher On M&A Chatter

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related LGF
The 5 Best Finance Movies Made Since The Great Recession
Top 4 NYSE Stocks In The Movie Production, Theaters Industry With The Highest Dividend Yield
SEC Charges Lions Gate Over Disclosure Issue (Fox Business)

Shares of Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (USA) (NYSE: LGF) were trending higher Monday morning amid M&A chatter.

Early Monday, the Dalian Wanda Group Chairman Wang Jianlin announced the firm has been in discussion with Lions Gate about acquiring a stake in the company.

The Chinese firm currently owns a majority stake in AMC Theaters.

Shares of Lions Gate were recently up 2.8 percent at $34.85 on Monday morning.

Posted-In: Dalian Wanda Group Wang JianlinNews Rumors M&A Pre-Market Outlook

JP Morgan Initiates Antero Midstream At Overweight

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related AM
A. M. Castle: United Tech's Preferred Supplier – Analyst Blog
Zacks Rank #5 Additions For Friday – Tale Of The Tape

Analysts at JP Morgan initiated coverage on Antero Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE: AM) with a Overweight rating.

The target price for Antero Midstream Partners is set to $35.

Antero Midstream’s shares fell 1% to close at $27.69 on Friday.

Latest Ratings for AM

Date Firm Action From To
Dec 2014 JP Morgan Initiates Coverage on Overweight
Dec 2014 Credit Suisse Initiates Coverage on Outperform
Dec 2014 Barclays Initiates Coverage on Overweight

View More Analyst Ratings for AM
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: JP MorganInitiation Analyst Ratings

Jefferies Upgrades Ashland To Buy

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related ASH
Earnings Scheduled For November 5, 2014
Ashland To Sell Elastomers Business To Lion Copolymer Holdings, LLC

Analysts at Jefferies upgraded Ashland (NYSE: ASH) from Hold to Buy.

The price target for Ashland has been raised from $123 to $147.

Ashland shares have jumped 23.77% over the past 52 weeks, while the S&P 500 index has surged 14.81% in the same period.

Ashland’s shares rose 0.48% to close at $114.05 on Friday.

Latest Ratings for ASH

Date Firm Action From To
Dec 2014 Jefferies Upgrades Hold Buy
Nov 2014 Monness Crespi Hardt Maintains Buy
Aug 2014 UBS Initiates Coverage on Buy

View More Analyst Ratings for ASH
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: JefferiesUpgrades Analyst Ratings


Zero Hedge

Belgian F-16 Pilot Ejects Before Fiery Crash, Gets Caught In High Voltage Power Lines

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

A Belgian F-16 fighter jet crashed in Northwestern France on Thursday, leaving one of its pilots hanging by his parachute from high voltage electricity lines, according to the BBC

Both pilots had minor injuries after they ejected from the plane, which clipped the roof of a house and crashed in a field near Pluvinger. The pilot stuck in the 250,000 volt power lines was brought down after a two hour rescue operation by French emergency ser...

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Phil's Favorites

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin


Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

Recent revelations about the lack of privacy protections in place at the companies involved in Facebook’s new Libra crytocurrency raise concerns about how much trust users can place in Libra. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Alfred Lehar, University of Calgary

Facebook, the largest social network in the world, stunned the world earlier this year with the announcement of its own cryptocurrency, Libra.

The launch has raised questions about the difference between Libra and existing cryptocurrencies, as well as the implications of private companies competing with s...

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Digital Currencies

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin


Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

Recent revelations about the lack of privacy protections in place at the companies involved in Facebook’s new Libra crytocurrency raise concerns about how much trust users can place in Libra. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Alfred Lehar, University of Calgary

Facebook, the largest social network in the world, stunned the world earlier this year with the announcement of its own cryptocurrency, Libra.

The launch has raised questions about the difference between Libra and existing cryptocurrencies, as well as the implications of private companies competing with s...

more from Bitcoin

Lee's Free Thinking

Look Out Bears! Fed New QE Now Up to $165 Billion

Courtesy of Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.

In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.

That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...

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The Technical Traders

Is A Price Revaluation Event About To Happen?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Skilled technical traders must be aware that price is setting up for a breakout or breakdown event with recent Doji, Hammer
and other narrow range price bars.  These types of Japanese Candlestick patterns are warnings that price is coiling into
a tight range and the more we see them in a series, the more likely price is building up some type of explosive price breakout/breakdown move in the near future.  The ES (S&P 500 E-mini futures) chart is a perfect example of these types of price bars on the Daily chart (see below).

Tri-Star Tops, Three River Evening Star patterns, Hammers/Hangmen and Dojis are all very common near extreme price peaks and troughs.  The rea...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

India About To Experience Major Strength? Possible Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

If one invested in the India ETF (INDA) back in January of 2012, your total 7-year return would be 24%. During the same time frame, the S&P 500 made 124%. The 7-year spread between the two is a large 100%!

Are things about to improve for the INDA ETF and could it be time for the relative weakness to change? Possible!

This chart looks at the INDA/SPX ratio since early 2012. The ratio continues to be in a major downtrend.

The ratio hit a 7-year low a few months ago and this week it kissed those lows again at (1). The ratio near weeks end is attempting to...

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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Credit Suisse raised IHS Markit Ltd (NYSE: INFO) price target from $68 to $76. IHS Markit shares closed at $67.75 on Thursday.
  • Wedbush boosted Restoration Hardware Holdings, Inc (NYSE: RH) price target from $170 to $185. RH shares closed at $169.49 on Thursday.
  • Mizuho lifted Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ: STX) price target from $46 to $50. Seagate shares closed at $52.94 on Thursday.
  • UBS raised the price target for Weight Watchers Intern... more from Insider

Chart School

Crude Oil Cycle Bottom aligns with Saudi Oil Attack

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!

These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:

1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.

2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.

3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted. 

We shall see. 


more from Chart School


The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:


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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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