Archive for November, 2014

Swing trading portfolio – week of December 1st, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

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Swing trading virtual portfolio

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UPDATE: Jefferies Upgrades Ashland As Oil Volatility Increases

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related ASH
UPDATE: Jefferies Upgrades Ashland
Stocks Hitting 52-Week Highs

In a report published Monday, Jefferies analyst Laurence Alexander upgraded the rating on Ashland (NYSE: ASH) from Hold to Buy, and raised the price target from $123.00 to $147.00.

In the report, Jefferies noted, “The recent downdraft in oil prices implies a flatter petrochemical cost curve, less demand for NGVs, a downshift in energy infrastructure capex, and a margin tailwind for downstream chemicals. Tilt towards the consumer, away from the cracker, and stay wary of whipsaws in soy (biodiesel) and corn (ethanol).”

Ashland closed on Friday at $114.05.

Latest Ratings for ASH

Date Firm Action From To
Dec 2014 Jefferies Upgrades Hold Buy
Nov 2014 Monness Crespi Hardt Maintains Buy
Aug 2014 UBS Initiates Coverage on Buy

View More Analyst Ratings for ASH
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Jefferies Laurence AlexanderAnalyst Color Upgrades Analyst Ratings





Jefferies Comments On 3D Printing Companies Following Industry Conference

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DDD
Bank Of America Comments On 3D Systems & Stratasys Amid Euromold Fair
Benzinga's M&A Chatter for Monday November 24, 2014
Will.i.am Debuts First 3D Printer for 3D Systems (Fox Business)

Jason North of Jefferies recently attended Euromold, the largest 3D printing industry conference in the world. The analyst met with management teams from many notable 3D Printing companies and detailed his findings in a note on Monday.

According to North the entire industry is gaining momentum in metal 3D printing, but is experiencing “limited visibility” into SLS speed improvements. The analyst adds that the runway for prototyping is longer than consensus expects, but the ramp of full manufacturing for 3D printing is "likely further away."

North states that Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ) now has a "bigger seat at the table" and that he is "incrementally more positive" on the company's 3D printing efforts.

"We do not see fundamental technical issues and think Hewlett-Packard's main hurdles have more to do with execution of its go-to-market strategy, product commercialization and ecosystem development," North wrote.

Notable Company Mentions

Arcam's (OTC: AMAVF) product offerings represents a "mixed plate" as its 10kW new product may not be as fast as initially expected and may not launch in the second quarter. On the other hand, the analyst notes that his checks suggest General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) has recently started full testing of the EBM-produced low-pressure turbine blades which are "going well so far."

Proto Labs Inc (NYSE: PRLB) continues to "clean its plate" as the company's management identified areas where it could assume additional investments in marketing to accelerate growth.

Stratasys, Ltd. (NASDAQ: SSYS) detailed its product announcement prior to the conference but did expand on expanded distribution agreement with Staples and Home Depot for its MakerBot.

3D Systems Corporation (NYSE: DDD) new ProX 400 was "by far the largest printer" at the show, according to North. The analyst suspects that the company is "gradually shifting" the sourcing of its jetting nozzles from an external supplier to the technology it recently acquired from Xerox.

Latest Ratings for DDD

Date Firm Action From To
Nov 2014 Jefferies Maintains Buy
Nov 2014 Imperial Capital Maintains Outperform
Nov 2014 Citigroup Maintains Neutral

View More Analyst Ratings for DDD
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: 3D Printing Arcam Euromold Jason North JefferiesAnalyst Color News Analyst Ratings





Options Outlook Amid Heavy Week Of Economic Events

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The scoreboard was somewhat bearish as last week came to a close, even though the Nasdaq 100 closed +0.46 percent, the Dow was flat and S&P 500 came in at -0.25 percent. Small caps were hit hardest at -1.46 percent. Crude oil's price crash was the focus of the day on Friday.

The exuberance in the retail trades led names like Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) to close higher.

Bystander victims of the drop in oil included stocks like Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) that benefit from higher oil. Conversely, airlines benefited from the prospect of low oil prices for longer.

The overall price action in S&P and Nasdaq was dome-shaped intraday Friday, which is not bullish (see charts below).

today.jpg

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) stood on the sidelines closing flattish. Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) shrugged off the EU break-up decision.

A Note About Oil

A few weeks ago, the market chatter was that low oil prices was a result of a deal between Saudi Arabia and the United States to hurt Russia. It's looking now like it was more of an OPEC move to hurt United States; Russia was collateral damage.

NDX Note

At this recent run rate, the Nasdaq could soon approach a dotcom bubble, and with that, the level of conviction from new buyers here is fragile at best.

ndxhighs.jpg

This week is heavy with economic events that are potential market movers, most notably on Thursday and Friday when traders will be looking for two things to move markets even higher.

These include economic reports from the United States to show continued strength and further fuel the theory that money will flow into U.S. equities as the dollar remains strong.

And the eurozone to show continued weakness to further strengthen ECB President Mario Draghi's argument for QE sooner rather than later. Thursday markets will have the chance to decide on that front.

Looking Ahead

Traders should be on the lookout for continued bullish sentiment. The bears have not been as…
continue reading





Mid-Day Losers From December 1: Tesla, Best Buy, 3D Systems, Big Lot, CTC Media

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related BBY
Global Equities' Chowdhry On Apple Flash Crash: 'I Would Not Read Too Much Into It'
Wedbush: Best Buy Lost Out On 'Few' Purchases During Mobile Site Outage
Making Money With Charles Payne: 11/25/14 (Fox Business)

CTC Media, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTCM) -11% – The decline may be a result of the appointment of the company's new Chief Legal Officer Maxim Bobin announced Monday.

Big Lots, Inc. (NYSE: BIG) -6% –  J.P. Morgan analysts downgraded the stock to Neutral and lowered the price target to $51.

3D Systems Corporation (NYSE: DDD) -5% – Shares are lower following negative commentary from analysts at two firms.

Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE: BBY) -5% – Wedbush analysts commented on Best Buy saying it lost a few sales due to its mobile site outage.

Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) -5% – Shares dropped following a report that BMW is not interested in acquiring a stake in Tesla.

Posted-In: Intraday Update Movers





US Stock Futures Down; Crude Oil Tumbles Over 1%

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DE
Barclays Lowers Deere & Company Price Target
Deere & Company Defended At Credit Suisse Following Lowered Guidance
Some Firms Will Benefit from Falling Corn Prices (Fox Business)
Related TRMB
Trimble Acquires UK-based Amtech Group To Expand Its Global Presence In The Mechanical, Electrical And Plumbing Market
Midday Losers From October 31: Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Bottomline Technologies, Digital Globe

Pre-open movers

US stock futures traded lower in early pre-market trade. The Markit PMI manufacturing index for November will be released at 9:45 a.m. ET, while the ISM manufacturing composite index for November will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET. Crude oil futures fell 1.10% to trade at $65.41 a barrel. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 70 points to 17,742.00, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures fell 9.40 points to 2,056.90. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index declined 9.50 points to 4,328.75.

A Peek Into Global Markets

European markets were lower today, with the Spanish Ibex Index dropping 0.89%, STOXX Europe 600 Index falling 0.45%. German DAX 30 index slipped 0.41%, French CAC 40 Index declined 0.56% and London’s FTSE 100 Index dropped 0.96%. The eurozone’s manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.1 in November, versus 50.4 in October.

In Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average rose 0.75%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 2.58%, China’s Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.10% and India’s Sensex declined 0.47%.

Broker Recommendation
Analysts at JP Morgan upgraded Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) from Underweight to Neutral. The price target for Deere has been raised from $83 to $90.

Deere’s shares closed at $86.62 on Friday.

Breaking news

  • Trimble (NASDAQ: TRMB) announced today that it has acquired privately-held Nexala, a provider of enterprise solutions for the rail transport industry, headquartered in Dublin, Ireland. To read the full news, click here.
  • IMRIS (NASDAQ:


continue reading





UPDATE: Bank Of America Upgrades Groupon As Recent Progress Validates Turnaround

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related GRPN
Groupon Gets A Look At More Coupon Competition
UPDATE: Barrington Research Reiterates On Groupon On Marketplace Transition Progress
Yodle Faces Hurdles in Bid to Conquer Local Ad Market (Fox Business)

On Monday, analysts at Bank of America upgraded shares of Groupon Inc (NASDAQ: GRPN) from Neutral to Buy and raised the price target from $8 to $9.50.

Paul Bieber finds the recent progress the company has made validates its turnaround and feels "the downward estimate revision cycle could be ending."

Bieber highlighted positives moving forward:

  1. The company has a large and growing customer base.
  2. E-mail headwinds are diminishing, which should aid local billings growth.
  3. New disclosures indicate stable cohort spending.
  4. Easy local billings comps and potential fourth quarter acceleration.
  5. Ticket Monster growth acceleration over the last several quarters has increased its value.
  6. Groupon has strategic asset value. With the stock down 36 percent year-to-date "vs. NASD +14 percent," Bieber feels sentiment is poised to turn more positive in 2015.

Shares of Groupon recently traded at $7.84, up 4 percent Monday morning.

Latest Ratings for GRPN

Date Firm Action From To
Dec 2014 Bank of America Upgrades Neutral Buy
Nov 2014 Brean Capital Maintains Buy
Nov 2014 UBS Maintains Neutral

View More Analyst Ratings for GRPN
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Bank of America Paul BieberAnalyst Color Upgrades Price Target Analyst Ratings





Lions Gate Entertainment Shares Trending Higher On M&A Chatter

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related LGF
The 5 Best Finance Movies Made Since The Great Recession
Top 4 NYSE Stocks In The Movie Production, Theaters Industry With The Highest Dividend Yield
SEC Charges Lions Gate Over Disclosure Issue (Fox Business)

Shares of Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (USA) (NYSE: LGF) were trending higher Monday morning amid M&A chatter.

Early Monday, the Dalian Wanda Group Chairman Wang Jianlin announced the firm has been in discussion with Lions Gate about acquiring a stake in the company.

The Chinese firm currently owns a majority stake in AMC Theaters.

Shares of Lions Gate were recently up 2.8 percent at $34.85 on Monday morning.

Posted-In: Dalian Wanda Group Wang JianlinNews Rumors M&A Pre-Market Outlook





JP Morgan Initiates Antero Midstream At Overweight

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related AM
A. M. Castle: United Tech's Preferred Supplier – Analyst Blog
Zacks Rank #5 Additions For Friday – Tale Of The Tape

Analysts at JP Morgan initiated coverage on Antero Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE: AM) with a Overweight rating.

The target price for Antero Midstream Partners is set to $35.

Antero Midstream’s shares fell 1% to close at $27.69 on Friday.

Latest Ratings for AM

Date Firm Action From To
Dec 2014 JP Morgan Initiates Coverage on Overweight
Dec 2014 Credit Suisse Initiates Coverage on Outperform
Dec 2014 Barclays Initiates Coverage on Overweight

View More Analyst Ratings for AM
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: JP MorganInitiation Analyst Ratings





Jefferies Upgrades Ashland To Buy

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related ASH
Earnings Scheduled For November 5, 2014
Ashland To Sell Elastomers Business To Lion Copolymer Holdings, LLC

Analysts at Jefferies upgraded Ashland (NYSE: ASH) from Hold to Buy.

The price target for Ashland has been raised from $123 to $147.

Ashland shares have jumped 23.77% over the past 52 weeks, while the S&P 500 index has surged 14.81% in the same period.

Ashland’s shares rose 0.48% to close at $114.05 on Friday.

Latest Ratings for ASH

Date Firm Action From To
Dec 2014 Jefferies Upgrades Hold Buy
Nov 2014 Monness Crespi Hardt Maintains Buy
Aug 2014 UBS Initiates Coverage on Buy

View More Analyst Ratings for ASH
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: JefferiesUpgrades Analyst Ratings





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

How Does the Stock Market Bottom?

 

How Does the Stock Market Bottom?

Courtesy of 

Despite the recent selloff, things are still relatively fine. I know nobody wants to hear this right now, but the S&P 500 is still up double digits over the last year and 36% over the last three years. What has people shook, understandably, is the speed of this decline.

Depending on where stocks close today, we could be looking at a 10% haircut in just five sessions. Over the last 20 years, this only happened during the Yuan devaluation in 2015, the Eurozone crisis in 2011, the GFC (global financial crisis) in ’08 and ’09, and the dotcom bubble in ’00, &rsqu...



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Zero Hedge

NYSE Announces Disaster-Recovery Test Due To Virus Fears

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

In a somewhat shocking sounding move, given administration officials' ongoing effort to calm the public fears over the spread of Covid-19, The New York Stock Exchange has announced it will commence disaster-recovery testing in its Cermak Data Center on March 7 amid coronavirus concern, Fox Business reports in a tweet, citing the exchange.

During this test, NYSE will facilitate electronic Core Open and Closing Auctions as if the 11 Wall Stree...



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ValueWalk

Cities With The Most 'New' And Tenured Homeowners

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Homeownership is a major investment. Not just financially, but when a person or family purchases a home, they’re investing years – if not decades – in that particular community. 55places wanted to find out which real estate markets are luring in new homebuyers, and which ones are dominated by owners that haven’t moved in decades. The study analyzed residency data in more than 300 US cities and revealed the top 10 cities with the most tenured homeowners – residents who’ve lived in and owned their home for more than 30 years – are sprinkled across ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Financial Crisis Deja Vu: Home Construction Index Double Top?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Most of us remember the 2007-2009 financial crisis because of the collapse in home prices and its effect on the economy.

One key sector that tipped off that crisis was the home builders.

The home builders are an integral piece to our economy and often signal “all clears” or “short-term warnings” to investors based on their economic health and how the index trades.

In today’s chart, we highlight the Dow Jones Home Construction Index. It has climbed all the way back to its pre-crisis highs… BUT it immediately reversed lower from there.

This raises concerns about a double top.

This pr...



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Insider Scoop

A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Plunge Amid Coronavirus Fears

Courtesy of Benzinga

Pre-open movers

U.S. stock futures traded lower in early pre-market trade. South Korea confirmed 256 new coronavirus cases on Thursday, while China reported an additional 327 new cases. Data on U.S. international trade in goods for January, wholesale inventories for January and consumer spending for January will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Chicago PMI for February is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET, while the University of Michigan's consumer sentime...



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Biotech & Health

Could coronavirus really trigger a recession?

 

Could coronavirus really trigger a recession?

Coronavirus seems to be on a collision course with the US economy and its 12-year bull market. AP Photo/Ng Han Guan

Courtesy of Michael Walden, North Carolina State University

Fears are growing that the new coronavirus will infect the U.S. economy.

A major U.S. stock market index posted its biggest two-day drop on record, erasing all the gains from the previous two months; ...



more from Biotech

The Technical Traders

SPY Breaks Below Fibonacci Bearish Trigger Level

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our research team wanted to share this chart with our friends and followers.  This dramatic breakdown in price over the past 4+ days has resulted in a very clear bearish trigger which was confirmed by our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We believe this downside move will target the $251 level on the SPY over the next few weeks and months.

Some recent headline articles worth reading:

On January 23, 2020, we ...



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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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Chart School

Oil cycle leads the stock cycle

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Sure correlation is not causation, but this chart should be known by you.

We all know the world economy was waiting for a pin to prick the 'everything bubble', but no one had any idea of what the pin would look like.

Hence this is why the story of the black swan is so relevant.






There is massive debt behind the record high stock markets, there so much debt the political will required to allow central banks to print trillions to cover losses will likely effect elections. The point is printing money to cover billions is unlikely to upset anyone, however printing trillions will. In 2007 it was billions, in 202X it ...

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Members' Corner

Threats to democracy: oligarchy, feudalism, dictatorship

 

Threats to democracy: oligarchy, feudalism, dictatorship

Courtesy of David Brin, Contrary Brin Blog 

Fascinating and important to consider, since it is probably one of the reasons why the world aristocracy is pulling its all-out putsch right now… “Trillions will be inherited over the coming decades, further widening the wealth gap,” reports the Los Angeles Times. The beneficiaries aren’t all that young themselves. From 1989 to 2016, U.S. households inherited more than $8.5 trillion. Over that time, the average age of recipients rose by a decade to 51. More ...



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Digital Currencies

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

 

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

‘We have you surrounded!’ Wit Olszewski

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, Manchester Metropolitan University and Richard Whittle, Manchester Metropolitan University

When bitcoin was trading at the dizzying heights of almost US$2...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

more from M.T.M.





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.