Archive for 2014

Comment by David Ristau

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  1. David Ristau

     Oxen Report Morning Levels

    ERX/ERY – ERX has lost a lot of its value and now ERY is actually up. Not too concerning because we are interested in movement post-report, but if things continue to dwindle away for ERX, it could present a situation where ERY may not have a lot of increase if inventories are weak. A more sideways movement would be better for us. ERY does have a lot of upside due to getting killed the past two days, however.

    HELE – Still at 21.22 in pre-market trading. We are not going to adjust our entry range, but be careful to readjust down to a lower entry price if this one opens down much more significantly than we had anticipated.

    Happy Investing!

Comment by flipspiceland

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  1. flipspiceland

    The truth has been struggling for visibility for as long as its cries have been heard.   Many people either know the truth, or don’t want to know the truth.
    I can’t have a conversation about the FED, Hank Paulson’s trillion dollar ripoff of the people to pay his friends and associates, Bernanke’s egregious rape of the dollar, the Bamster’s unholy alliance with thieves on Wall Street, like Dimon, Blankfein, Rubin, O’neal, Gensler,  —you name it—with anyone who is not on line.
    As soon as I to ask if anyone is interested in what is happening to them, the anal screwing they are getting from elected and unelected royalty,  each and every day,  they turn the conversation away to Kim Kardashian, latest sports trivia, or some innocuous complaint about their kids teacher.
    If we are being buried in a tomb of lies, it is because most people want only to ‘be happy’, and do not understand that life has a way of draining away their happiness like the frog in the pot on a gradually hotter flame.  Not until Stage Critical and then Stage Fail! is reached, (and of course any thing that could have been done to prevent it) is now too late to deploy.
    Our people are digging their own graves with this interminable, all too human characteristic  of getting something for nothing, avoiding the pain of dealing with the miscreants  that have engulfed us on all sides.

Illegal Immigrant Can Practice Law in US Says California Court

Courtesy of Mish.

Those looking for absolute absurdity in California at the start of the new year did not have to wait long.

CNN reports No green card? No problem — undocumented immigrant can practice law, court says.

Sergio Garcia’s parents brought him to the United States from Mexico nearly two decades ago. He’s been waiting for a green card ever since.

But there’s one thing the undocumented immigrant no longer has to wait for, according to a California Supreme Court ruling on Thursday: his law license.

Garcia can be admitted to California’s state bar and legally practice as a lawyer there, the court ruled.

“How is Garcia supposed to uphold ‘the laws of the United States’ when he is, by his mere presence in this country, in violation of federal law?” CNN contributor Ruben Navarrette asks in an opinion column he wrote on the case in September. “How does he pledge to show respect for ‘the courts of justice’ when, for most of his life, he has lived here in defiance of the rule of law? And how can he claim that he won’t ‘mislead’ a judge or judicial officer when living in the United States illegally requires deception on a daily basis?”

“With today’s ruling, the California Supreme Court reaffirms the Committee of Bar Examiners’ finding as not a political decision but rather one grounded in the law,” California State Bar President Luis J. Rodriguez said in a written statement Thursday.

Case could set precedent

Critics have argued that giving Garcia a license wouldn’t make sense. How can someone without legal status become licensed as a lawyer, whose job entails upholding the law?

Larry DeSha, former prosecutor for the State Bar of California, said Garcia shouldn’t be given his law license because his immigration status would be in violation of a civil immigration statute and could affect his ability to represent his clients.

“In the immigration debate, we must separate the individual from the idea. The individual — Garcia — looks like a keeper. The idea — that one who has lived most of his life outside the law can practice law — is problematic,” Navarrette wrote in his September column.

The Obama administration originally opposed Garcia’s admission to the bar, saying that federal law demanded that legislation be enacted

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Comment by OptionSage

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  1. OptionSage

    SBUX – how can I add anything to Phil’s detailed analysis! BillBigD as Phil pointed out the big challenge with the trade is evaluating the contingency should something go wrong and having more time is always going to yield easier trade modifications. In general I like those plays a lot…you still have a reasonable time remaining before expiration so personally I would be surprised if it didn’t do well. Although a correction may occur short-term the likelihood of it lasting thru to 08 and causing the position to lose overall is improbable in my view.

    China – agreed! If things really do get ugly Paulson should perform some hocus pocus and save us!

Comment by Phil

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  1. Phil

    SBUX – my only issue with that trade (as with all bull call spreads) is that anything can happen in a short-time-frame. I suppose if the market maintains itself during Aug then I could relax about the rest of the year but even pre-beaten SBUX would not be immune to a major crash. For the same $1.60 at risk I can sell the same Jan $27.50s against ’09 $30s, giving me 12 additional months to be right but, of course, my favorite is always to take the same leaps and sell the Sept $27.50s for $1. While there is, of course an appeal for low-budget investors to tie up less money, the sale of 3 $27.50s at $1 yields 25% more over 4 months which equals 100% more over the course of the 16 months you hold the leap ($2.40) which is exactly what the expression penny-wise and pound-foolish means!

    China I don’t take too seriously. It’s kind of like you have a store and your number one customer (about 1/3 of your business) threatens to take his business elsewhere if you don’t fix some policies he doesn’t like so your response is: “Oh yeah, well I’ll show you, I’m going to throw the money you gave me down the toilet, knocking off perahps 20% of my total wealth (which is held in that money) and I’m going to make sure that any additional money you give me or owe me buys 20-30% less for me than it did in the past. Then I’m going to slow your entire economy, which can knock another 20-30% off half my future sales while I foolishly hope my erratic behavior doesn’t cause you to seek more reliable suppliers.”

    There are close to 1Bn Africans who dream of one day having a fraction of China’s standard of living and the Chinese need to be mindful of the ancient wisdom I just made up which goes: “People who live in grass huts will work for stones!”

Comment by BillBigD

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  1. BillBigD

    I know Phil likes SBUX and will be doing more spreads trades so I thought you could look at this one for the group.
    Buy SBUX Jan 25 at $3.85

    Sell SBUX Jan 27.50 at $2.25 Net debit $1.60

    Close above $27.50 .90 profit 56.25% Return
    If you don’t like told hold back

Comment by CMan

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  1. CMan

    I have learned a lot from your site in the last few days (Less than 15 days) – more than what I learned from visitng other sites / books / seminars and subscriptions in a year. Keep up the good work and hope to hear from you soon concerning the fund / club you are planning to start.
    THANKS again

Comment by sloane

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  1. sloane

    Dr. Tantillo did a short post on Madoff on his marketing blog when this story first hit, explaining how Madoff’s success can be attributed to knowing his Target Market (not that he condones his behavior…).

    "He knew not to promise sophisticated people unsophisticated (read “extravagant”) returns.  In other words, he knew people would walk away if he promised them the sun and moon, but 10 to 15% seemed about right.  He was also reportedly very selective —not everyone could become a client— and that kind of exclusivity, if exerted by a credible party (like Madoff seemed to be), can have real power."

    Madoff was simply supplying a demand: dreamily consistent returns to those who were content to stick their heads in the sand.

Comment by ajaytoo

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  1. ajaytoo


Comment by Alex

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  1. Alex

    That is what I´m looking for, too.
    I also have a full time job and I´m missing the first 1-2 hours. I too want to have a bit more from my friday because of travel and so.
    I have a few LTP positions in my portfolio integrated, but the first 2 positions were financials that are hurt a bit, now I´m looking for MCD and more PEP, a bit of TM, AMZN, VZ, WFR. And also searching for stable stocks who are trading in small ranges and don´t burn me on the caller.
    K1 thanks much and let us know more…
    P.S. 25% I think a very Easy goal for the year, since you have many LTP spreads that gains you 10% or more in just one month, but it´s only the math, so we must check this out.


Zero Hedge

Will The US Slap Sanctions On Nord Stream 2?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Nick Cunningham via,

There is a growing push in the U.S. Congress to slap sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

The pipeline under construction would carry Russian natural gas to Germany, and has been a lightning rod of controversy both in Europe and across the Atlantic. Many governments and officials from Eastern Europe fear deeper dependence on Russia for gas supplies, a sentiment echoed by the U.S. government. Meanwhile, many in Western Europe are less concerned,...

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Phil's Favorites

US is already fighting a conflict with Iran - an economic war that is hurting the wrong people


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US is already fighting a conflict with Iran – an economic war that is hurting the wrong people

Courtesy of David Cortright, University of Notre Dame

Many are worried about the risk of war with Iran after the Trump administration leaked discussions of a troop deployment in response to claimed threats to U.S. warships in the region.

And in r...

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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ... more from Insider

Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...

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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!

Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!

Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control


Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...

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DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University


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More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism


The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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