Archive for 2014

Comment by David Ristau

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  1. David Ristau

     Oxen Report Morning Levels

    ERX/ERY – ERX has lost a lot of its value and now ERY is actually up. Not too concerning because we are interested in movement post-report, but if things continue to dwindle away for ERX, it could present a situation where ERY may not have a lot of increase if inventories are weak. A more sideways movement would be better for us. ERY does have a lot of upside due to getting killed the past two days, however.

    HELE – Still at 21.22 in pre-market trading. We are not going to adjust our entry range, but be careful to readjust down to a lower entry price if this one opens down much more significantly than we had anticipated.

    Happy Investing!

Comment by flipspiceland

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  1. flipspiceland

    The truth has been struggling for visibility for as long as its cries have been heard.   Many people either know the truth, or don’t want to know the truth.
    I can’t have a conversation about the FED, Hank Paulson’s trillion dollar ripoff of the people to pay his friends and associates, Bernanke’s egregious rape of the dollar, the Bamster’s unholy alliance with thieves on Wall Street, like Dimon, Blankfein, Rubin, O’neal, Gensler,  —you name it—with anyone who is not on line.
    As soon as I to ask if anyone is interested in what is happening to them, the anal screwing they are getting from elected and unelected royalty,  each and every day,  they turn the conversation away to Kim Kardashian, latest sports trivia, or some innocuous complaint about their kids teacher.
    If we are being buried in a tomb of lies, it is because most people want only to ‘be happy’, and do not understand that life has a way of draining away their happiness like the frog in the pot on a gradually hotter flame.  Not until Stage Critical and then Stage Fail! is reached, (and of course any thing that could have been done to prevent it) is now too late to deploy.
    Our people are digging their own graves with this interminable, all too human characteristic  of getting something for nothing, avoiding the pain of dealing with the miscreants  that have engulfed us on all sides.

Illegal Immigrant Can Practice Law in US Says California Court

Courtesy of Mish.

Those looking for absolute absurdity in California at the start of the new year did not have to wait long.

CNN reports No green card? No problem — undocumented immigrant can practice law, court says.

Sergio Garcia’s parents brought him to the United States from Mexico nearly two decades ago. He’s been waiting for a green card ever since.

But there’s one thing the undocumented immigrant no longer has to wait for, according to a California Supreme Court ruling on Thursday: his law license.

Garcia can be admitted to California’s state bar and legally practice as a lawyer there, the court ruled.

“How is Garcia supposed to uphold ‘the laws of the United States’ when he is, by his mere presence in this country, in violation of federal law?” CNN contributor Ruben Navarrette asks in an opinion column he wrote on the case in September. “How does he pledge to show respect for ‘the courts of justice’ when, for most of his life, he has lived here in defiance of the rule of law? And how can he claim that he won’t ‘mislead’ a judge or judicial officer when living in the United States illegally requires deception on a daily basis?”

“With today’s ruling, the California Supreme Court reaffirms the Committee of Bar Examiners’ finding as not a political decision but rather one grounded in the law,” California State Bar President Luis J. Rodriguez said in a written statement Thursday.

Case could set precedent

Critics have argued that giving Garcia a license wouldn’t make sense. How can someone without legal status become licensed as a lawyer, whose job entails upholding the law?

Larry DeSha, former prosecutor for the State Bar of California, said Garcia shouldn’t be given his law license because his immigration status would be in violation of a civil immigration statute and could affect his ability to represent his clients.

“In the immigration debate, we must separate the individual from the idea. The individual — Garcia — looks like a keeper. The idea — that one who has lived most of his life outside the law can practice law — is problematic,” Navarrette wrote in his September column.

The Obama administration originally opposed Garcia’s admission to the bar, saying that federal law demanded that legislation be enacted

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Comment by OptionSage

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  1. OptionSage

    SBUX – how can I add anything to Phil’s detailed analysis! BillBigD as Phil pointed out the big challenge with the trade is evaluating the contingency should something go wrong and having more time is always going to yield easier trade modifications. In general I like those plays a lot…you still have a reasonable time remaining before expiration so personally I would be surprised if it didn’t do well. Although a correction may occur short-term the likelihood of it lasting thru to 08 and causing the position to lose overall is improbable in my view.

    China – agreed! If things really do get ugly Paulson should perform some hocus pocus and save us!

Comment by Phil

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  1. Phil

    SBUX – my only issue with that trade (as with all bull call spreads) is that anything can happen in a short-time-frame. I suppose if the market maintains itself during Aug then I could relax about the rest of the year but even pre-beaten SBUX would not be immune to a major crash. For the same $1.60 at risk I can sell the same Jan $27.50s against ’09 $30s, giving me 12 additional months to be right but, of course, my favorite is always to take the same leaps and sell the Sept $27.50s for $1. While there is, of course an appeal for low-budget investors to tie up less money, the sale of 3 $27.50s at $1 yields 25% more over 4 months which equals 100% more over the course of the 16 months you hold the leap ($2.40) which is exactly what the expression penny-wise and pound-foolish means!

    China I don’t take too seriously. It’s kind of like you have a store and your number one customer (about 1/3 of your business) threatens to take his business elsewhere if you don’t fix some policies he doesn’t like so your response is: “Oh yeah, well I’ll show you, I’m going to throw the money you gave me down the toilet, knocking off perahps 20% of my total wealth (which is held in that money) and I’m going to make sure that any additional money you give me or owe me buys 20-30% less for me than it did in the past. Then I’m going to slow your entire economy, which can knock another 20-30% off half my future sales while I foolishly hope my erratic behavior doesn’t cause you to seek more reliable suppliers.”

    There are close to 1Bn Africans who dream of one day having a fraction of China’s standard of living and the Chinese need to be mindful of the ancient wisdom I just made up which goes: “People who live in grass huts will work for stones!”

Comment by BillBigD

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  1. BillBigD

    I know Phil likes SBUX and will be doing more spreads trades so I thought you could look at this one for the group.
    Buy SBUX Jan 25 at $3.85

    Sell SBUX Jan 27.50 at $2.25 Net debit $1.60

    Close above $27.50 .90 profit 56.25% Return
    If you don’t like told hold back

Comment by CMan

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  1. CMan

    I have learned a lot from your site in the last few days (Less than 15 days) – more than what I learned from visitng other sites / books / seminars and subscriptions in a year. Keep up the good work and hope to hear from you soon concerning the fund / club you are planning to start.
    THANKS again

Comment by sloane

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  1. sloane

    Dr. Tantillo did a short post on Madoff on his marketing blog when this story first hit, explaining how Madoff’s success can be attributed to knowing his Target Market (not that he condones his behavior…).

    "He knew not to promise sophisticated people unsophisticated (read “extravagant”) returns.  In other words, he knew people would walk away if he promised them the sun and moon, but 10 to 15% seemed about right.  He was also reportedly very selective —not everyone could become a client— and that kind of exclusivity, if exerted by a credible party (like Madoff seemed to be), can have real power."

    Madoff was simply supplying a demand: dreamily consistent returns to those who were content to stick their heads in the sand.

Comment by ajaytoo

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  1. ajaytoo


Comment by Alex

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  1. Alex

    That is what I´m looking for, too.
    I also have a full time job and I´m missing the first 1-2 hours. I too want to have a bit more from my friday because of travel and so.
    I have a few LTP positions in my portfolio integrated, but the first 2 positions were financials that are hurt a bit, now I´m looking for MCD and more PEP, a bit of TM, AMZN, VZ, WFR. And also searching for stable stocks who are trading in small ranges and don´t burn me on the caller.
    K1 thanks much and let us know more…
    P.S. 25% I think a very Easy goal for the year, since you have many LTP spreads that gains you 10% or more in just one month, but it´s only the math, so we must check this out.


Zero Hedge

Enemy Of The People?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Via The Zman blog,

There has never been a time when normal people did not know the media was biased and biased in a predictable direction. For every non-liberal in the media, there were at least ten liberals. The ratio was probably higher, but then, as now, some lefties liked to pretend they were independents or some third option.

The media used to invest a lot of time denying they had a bias and an agenda, but the only people who believed them were on the Left, which had the odd effect of confirming they had a bias and an agenda.


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Phil's Favorites

A 2019 Earnings Recession?


A 2019 Earnings Recession?

Courtesy of 

Shout to Leigh!

On the new Talk Your Book – Josh Brown is joined by Leigh Drogen of Estimize, one of the leading providers of crowdsourced financial and economic data to talk about the trend in corporate profits that could potentially lead to an earnings recession later this year.

What is the thing that Leigh is seeing in the data that Wall Street isn’t yet picking up on? What segment of the stock market is most at risk? Why is the crowd smarter than the narrow consensus of Wall Street analysts?

Check out Estimize ...

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D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold & Silver Testing Important Breakout Levels!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Gold and Silver from a long-term perspective have created a series of lower highs over the past 8-years. Will 2019 bring a change to this trend? A big test is in play!

Gold since the lows in 2016 has created a series of higher lows, while Silver may have created a double bottom.

Gold & Silver are currently facing break attempts a (1) and (2). These falling resistance lines have disappointed metals bulls for the past few years.

The direction of Gold and Silver weeks and months from now should be highly influenced by what each does as they are attempting to break above important resistance levels.

To become a member of Kimbl...

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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ... more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Russia Prepares To Buy Up To $10 Billion In Bitcoin To Evade US Sanctions

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

While the market has been increasingly focused on the rising headwinds in the global economy in general, and China's economic slowdown in particular, while the media is obsessing over daily revelations that Trump may or may not have colluded with Russia to get elected, a far more critical, if underreported, shift has been taking place over the past year.

As we reported in June, whether due to concerns over draconian western sanctions and asset confiscations following the poisoning of former Russian military officer Sergei Skripal, or simply because it wanted to diversify away from the dollar, Russia liquidated virtually all of its Treasury holdings in the late spri...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...

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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn


Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's failure based on his personality, which was evident years ago. This article, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump became president, in July, 2016, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...

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Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.


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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>