Archive for 2014

Comment by rj_jarboe

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  1. rj_jarboe

    The last 6 mo. VZ & T have traded neck and neck. VZ 's constant outperformance may be coming to an end.

Comment by cturb

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  1. cturb

    TSLA today's action could be interesting. With the halt on short selling, I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a bear trap set today for those people piling into the puts

Comment by phil

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  1. phil

    Not even getting the weak bounce so far.   Don't forget, failure to make a weak bounce and finishing down 1.25% indicates follow-through lower the next day.   What we then want to know is whether it is accelerating or decelerating (closer to 0.625% or 2.5%).  We are certainly primed for a 10% sell-off and -1.25%, -2.5%, -5% and then decelerating to -1.25% and 0.625% would be a perfect pullback.  

    From 16,500 on the main index, 10% down is 14,850 so 15,000ish is about as low as we expect to go – even if things get ugly.  The 200 dma is 15,400, which is 6.66% off 16,500 – the mark of the Blankfein!


    TSLA/Yodi – No rational person would but keep in mind that the company's entire float is 83M shares and, according to Yahoo, 106% of it is held by Institutions and Mutual Funds.    FMR alone owns 11.6M shares, BNP 7M, TRow Price 6M…  So "people" don't own TSLA at all and, what few people do own it (as opposed to day trading or options trading, where they never get the shares) are mostly wealthy TSLA owners who just paid $90,000 for a car and don't think owning 100 shares for $17,500 is strange at all.  Those same people are mainly in California and obviously wealthy and they live in places where they see lots of people with Teslas and lots of people talking about them.  In my town, or even  in NYC, for that matter, I see zero Teslas and I know zero people who want one or even care about the company at all.  But, with that small a float, they don't need NY/NJ to know or care about their stock – they literally only have to fool some of the people all of time.  

    VZ/StJ – I always did like them better but, this year, I ran them both down for our trade of the year ideas and T seemed stronger going forward.  If VZ gets cheaper, that may change.  

    You're welcome Mill.  You have to have some rules in your head – even if you end up not following them because at least then you KNOW you are playing on the fringes.  

    TOS/Scott – That's why I'm ignoring all those pop-ups urging me to run the update.  

Comment by Pharmboy

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  1. Pharmboy

    Ford profit is down on international sales….

    P&G cuts full year guidance….

    Dow Chemical beats, but China holds it back…(hummmm), and the EU is a big part of sales.


Comment by biodieselchris

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  1. biodieselchris

    I bought Dogecoin at 3 and it's at 25* in two weeks.



Comment by matt1966

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  1. matt1966

    Robert Rubin will catch softballs from the US Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission this week.  So will Greenspan and Citi’s Prince at some point.

Comment by stjeanluc

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  1. stjeanluc

    VZ / Phil – They seem to be more resilient than T in the face of a more aggressive T-Mobile. I guess it's easier to poach T's customer for T-Mobile because the networks are more compatible. 

    Overall, since the 2008 crisis, VZ has been a much better investment (up 65% compared to 17% for T) and I don't see that changing the long run.

Comment by pentaxon

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  1. pentaxon

    I have updated my stock options volume indicator, and to me it looks like not everbody is that optimistic regarding the coming floods of money.

    Maybe the indicator is not right this time, but it should at least be considered as a warning sign that the outcome could be different…

Comment by yodi

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  1. yodi

    Phil How do we repair LULU

    I hold besides others Jun14 60 c paid 5.65 now 1.16 Jun14 65 caller sold for 3.65 now 1.16

    and sold a Jun14 57.5 putter for 4.93 now 10.92. Well still 5 month to go. But I am looking to roll the long call to Jan15 45c at a cost of 7.60 leaving the Jun14 65 caller to become worthless and selling an other 57.5 Jan15 caller for 3.95 possible hang on with the Jun14 57.5 putter at this time as there  is still 1.40 of premium

Comment by stjeanluc

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  1. stjeanluc


Zero Hedge

Bloomberg System Goes Down Ahead Of US Open

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

For the second time in a few months, the Bloomberg Terminal system appears to be down and is causing panic across Wall Street ahead of the US market open...

Traders are not happy...

When Bloomberg panels go down 8 minutes before the open......

— NOD (@NOD008) January 17, 2019 ...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Triple Breakout Test In Play For S&P 500!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the rally of late about to run out of steam or is a major breakout about to take place in the S&P 500? What happens at current prices should go a long way in determining this question.

This chart looks at the equal weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) on a daily basis over the past 15-months.

The rally from the lows on Christmas Eve has RSP testing the top of a newly formed falling channel while testing the underneath side of the 2018 trading range and its falling 50-day moving average at (1).

At this time RPS is facing a triple resistance test. Wil...

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Phil's Favorites

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?


Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

Courtesy of Victoria Honeyman, University of Leeds

As the clock ticks down to March 29 2019, all of the political manoeuvring, negotiating, arguing and fighting is coming to a peak. In the two and a half years since the 2016 EU referendum, views on both sides have hardened and agreement still seems as far away as it was the day after the referendum.

With Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement disliked by all sides, and voted down by an unprecedented majority in the House of Commons, everyone is wondering what can and should be done next?


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Digital Currencies

Crypto-Bubble: Will Bitcoin Bottom In February Or Has It Already?

Courtesy of Michelle Jones via

The new year has been relatively good for the price of bitcoin after a spectacular collapse of the cryptocurrency bubble in 2018. It’s up notably since the middle of December and traded around the psychological level of $4,000... so is this a sign that the crypto market is about to recover?

Of course, it depends on who you ask, but one analyst discovered a pattern which might point to a bottom next month.

A year after the cryptocurrency bubble popped


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D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...

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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ... more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...

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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn


Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...

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Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.


more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>