Archive for 2014

Comment by phil

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  1. phil

    Monsanto upgraded to Buy at Miller Tabak on upside surprise potential

    02:45 PM ET · MON

    • Monsanto (MON +1.2%) is upgraded to Buy from Hold with a $130 price target, up from $106, at Miller Tabak, noting that the Street is bracing for limited-to-no upside to FY 2014 guidance because of uncertainty over the impact of tightening credit on Ukrainian seed volumes going forward and Brazilian weather impact on Intacta supply availability for next season.
    • The firm sees a positive shift in underlying agriculture macro trends enabling MON to bridge the earnings hurdle between recent multi-year highs, Roundup margins, strong seed prices and the next burst of material margin uplift from Intacta and IFS products in FY 2016.
    var isMC=true; var adSize=’320×50′; var ord = Math.floor(Math.random()*10e12); var seekingalpha_ad_src=’;sz=320×50,320×250;x=x;tile=1;d=mobile;t=app;mcid=true;mcid=1650403;s=MON;’+dart_my_vocation_and_profiles()+’ord=’+ord+’;dev=ip?’; document.write(”);

Comment by RMM

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  1. RMM

    now Protection:

    have cashed in my DIA nov 107PUTS, only protection left is SKF jan 120 with 1/3 cover (oct 120),
    this does not seem to be enough,

    which one fits best ?
    Risk is general market drop, but particularly the higher priced techs,

    what is best conclusion ?

Comment by Burrben

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  1. Burrben


    Can you just post the link?  For those of us on mobile devices, all that text from an article we may not want to read kills the scrolling time.  

Comment by phil

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  1. phil

    By the way, next Tuesday my plan is to do an entire Futures Trading Workshop at 1pm (see post above).  

    Panasonic/Shadow – What exactly would be Panasonic's goal?  The World's largest battery maker would partner with TSLA to teach them how to make batteries in America so they can compete with Panasonic?  Why doesn't Panasonic save time and just give TSLA half their money from now on?   

    TSLA/Wombat – Are you sure that's what you want to do?  Now you are playing bullish and you want to hedge your bullish play in case TSLA is not as strong as you think?  Doesn't sound at all like what you originally intended to be doing….  Earnings are coming and, if they miss and fall hard, are you going to double down and roll and make long TSLA a significant position in your portfolio for the long haul?  

    Good list of things to watch, Shadow. 

    LULU/Jbur – Nice job selling into the excitement.  

    GSK/Wombat – Quick recall limits downside exposure and cost of recall now known and they already fel from $56 to $53 (5%) on the rumors.  It's a $130Bn company that makes $9Bn a year and it wasn't something they did wrong in the first place.  In fact, done properly, they get a million people to throw their current batch in the trash (most people can't be bothered to do a recall) and buy new ones.   Think of what you'd do with a prescription you had that was half full if you heard something worrisome about it….

    SCO/$25KP, Rookie – We do not have a current SCO position in there.  In the STP, we had an April $30/34 bull call spread that we closed on 3/12, when SCO flew up to $31 as the 50 dma was right about there and we expected rejection.  We re-entered on the 19th in the STP, but that had nothing to do with the $25KP but I did miss logging it so thanks for reminding me.   

    SCO/STP – I think we should buy back the 10 April $32 calls for .10 as they aren't doing us any good and, if SCO bounces back, uncovering our long

continue reading

Comment by Louis631

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  1. Louis631

    What a bar on / TF  Indices are hopping!!

Comment by stjeanluc

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  1. stjeanluc

    Not everybody Wombat…

    Nasdaq still in a death spiral driven by the Momos I guess… 

Comment by tommyt

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  1. tommyt

    Hi phil,

    is there a replay link somewhere for tues webcast i cant find it.

    thanks tom

Comment by wombat

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  1. wombat

    slow today  - their getting hammered – just talked to them -
    Phil – thanks for the redo on TSLA, cam away unscathed for the moment

    +20 Jan16 $230/$300 Bull spread
    -20 June $280 short calls 
    -10 June $210/250 Bear call spread

    13K PM

Comment by albo

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  1. albo

    CHK strong today.  My favorite in the space is UPL.

Comment by Burrben

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Phil's Favorites

Congress is considering privacy legislation - be afraid


Congress is considering privacy legislation – be afraid

Courtesy of Jeff Sovern, St. John's University

Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis called privacy the “right to be let alone.” Perhaps Congress should give states trying to protect consumer data the same right.

For years, a gridlocked Congress ignored privacy, apart from occasionally scolding companies such as Equifax and Marriott after their major data breaches. In its absence, ...

more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Key Events This Week: Trade War, EU Elections, Durables, PMIs And Fed Minutes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Looking at this week's key events, Deutsche Bank's Craig Nicol writes that while the unpredictable nature of US-China trade developments will likely continue to be the main focus for markets again next week, we also have the European Parliament elections circus to look forward to as well as various survey reports including the flash May PMIs which may offer some insight into the impact of trade escalation on economic data. The FOMC and ECB meeting minutes are also due, along with a heavy calendar of Fed officials speaking.

The European Parliament elections will kick off next Thursday with voting continuing into the weekend across the continent, with results expected on Sunday. With the elections surrounded by internal and external challenges for the EU, members di...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will S&P 500 Double Top Derail The Rally?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The rally off the December stock market lows has been strong, to say the least. The S&P 500 rallied 25 percent before hitting and testing the 2018 high.

The old highs proved to be formidable resistance and ushered in some volatility in May… and a 5 percent pullback.

In today’s 2-pack, we look at that resistance level – could that be a double top? We can see similar patterns develop on the S&P 500 Index and its Equal Weight counterpart.

Both indexes are testing short-term Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent decline at point (2).

What takes place here after potential double top highs will be important. Stay tuned...

more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

60 Biggest Movers From Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Fastly, Inc. (NYSE: FSLY) shares jumped 50 percent to close at $23.99 on Friday. Fastly priced its 11.25 million share IPO at $16 per share.
  • Outlook Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: OTLK) shares climbed 37.3 percent to close at $2.10 on Friday after the stock rose over 68 percent Thursday following an Oppenheimer initiation at Outperform with a price target of $12.
  • Cray Inc. (NASDAQ: CRAY) shares rose 22.5 percent to close at $36.52 after Hewlett Packard Enterpri... more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.


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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control


Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...

more from Bitcoin


DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University


more from Biotech


More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism


The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...

more from M.T.M.


Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

more from OpTrader


Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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