Archive for 2014

Comment by hextra8

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  1. hextra8


    Could you recommend a Jan 14 (weekly) BTO call trade for APOL. Thank You.

Comment by zeroxzero

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  1. zeroxzero

     Phil's Wiki advice, reiterated on the board the other day, to the effect that "if a trade goes against you, you were wrong, get out" have proven very useful this week.  Strange how your luck picks up when you bail very quickly out of red trades and stick to green ones.  Hope, as I wrote a long time ago, is not a strategy.  Funny it took me so long to internalize what I have always followed in my alternate pursuits [like being lost in the mountains at dusk -- don't wander around, hoping to pick up the trail, and fall off a mountain -- find cover and collect some firewood!]

Comment by wombat

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  1. wombat

    Phil / TZA
    I'm finding it difficult to stay on the same page with the TZAs. I am still holding July spreads in most portfolios. I don't have a long-term and short term port separated ; so when you mentioned getting rid of all the TZA in the recast – were you just referring to those that are playing the short term ?

Comment by phil

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    Rolling down/Wombat – That's a good point too.  Craigs, you are looking at "just" 2 years of options.  When we get to 2016 and ISRG is at $300 and our short puts are $50 in the money, we can either take the assignment and sell 2018 puts and calls to reduce our basis or we can roll to the 2018 $250 puts for about the same $50 or we can just pay the $50 ($5,000) and take the loss though, if we netted back $6,000 from the SDS spread back in 2014 plus the original $1,100 credit - it wouldn't be a loss at all.  In 2018 we can roll to the 2020 $200 puts, etc. – That's another thing that's hard to teach… the LONG-TERM Perspective.  

Comment by craigsa620

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  1. craigsa620

    ISRG/Phil-Thanks again. I get it! I actually must have had a brain fart because I forgot for a moment that we collect the premium while we wait for the stock to get to a price we like or just expire worthless. Get greedy and try to collect too much premium and we end up owning the stock at a price that could be too high in this market. How great is it that we can get paid and the outcome is either owning a good stock at a reasonable price, or having the option just expire? Yes, I get it! 

Comment by DKGuy

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  1. DKGuy

    Drugs and Alcohol – Having been raised by an alcoholic father I know the down side of living with the problem first hand. The entire question of legalizing drugs is one that scares the heck out of me since folks already have such a tough time dealing with the effects of those drugs and prescriptions of substances that are already legal.
    Due to my background my wife and I have spent many hours volunteering in shelters for abused women and children many of which have been victims of addicts and to see the affects on the innocent kids is not just alarming it is devastating. I’m affraid the issues of child abuse will only get worse. 
    My wife and I are not prudes by any means and enjoy a very fine wine cellar and have done tasting trips to California and Europe but again there needs to be a discipline and maturity exercised that unfortunately so many have yet to acquire. Not to say we are any better but we have seen what can go wrong and what is at risk.
    Folks the down side is already horrible. It scares me ot think that it could get worse.  

Comment by yodi

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  1. yodi

    Phil the put you suggested is now only 1.42

Comment by phil

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    Taco Bell on to phase two in breakfast blitz

    08:00 AM ET · YUM

    • Execs with Taco Bell (YUM) say the company is on to phase two with a marketing campaign designed to promote its new breakfast menu.
    • The next round of TV commercial will position the food chain as the “next generation” for breakfast after the first spots took dead aim at McDonald’s.
    • The company says response for its A.M. Crunchwrap, Waffle Taco, and Cinnabon Delights items has been strong. New breakfast products still to debut at Taco Bell include yoguer parfait, oatmeal, and premium coffee drinks.
    • Fast-food breakfast war timeline
    var isMC=true; var adSize=’320×50′; var ord = Math.floor(Math.random()*10e12); var seekingalpha_ad_src=’;sz=320×50,320×250;x=x;tile=1;d=mobile;t=app;mcid=true;mcid=1664543;s=YUM;’+dart_my_vocation_and_profiles()+’ord=’+ord+’;dev=ip?’; document.write(”);

Comment by phil

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    Congress is a millionaires’ club. Why that matters, and what we can do about it.

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    From Bloomberg, Jan 27, 2014, 3:02:17 AM

    Sony Corp. (6758) had its credit rating cut
    to junk at Moody’s Investors Service, which cited challenges
    facing its television and personal-computer units.

    To read the entire article, go to
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at


Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...

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Phil's Favorites

This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018.

By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS, although on many months the (balance sheet) B/S does not actually shrink by this full amount which depends on the redemption schedule) and by end-Q4 markets also experienced some of the largest volatility and drawdowns in nearly a decade.

As Nomura&...

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The Competition For Capital Has Made Stocks Cheap

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The new year is upon us, and now is the time many investors look at what 2018 was and prepare for what 2019 might be. Recession jitters are starting to pick back up again, especially now that the full picture of 2018 is in the books. But what if you could pick only one theme for 2018? Jefferies strategist Sean Darby and team have a suggestion which is especially timely given that it appears to mark the end of an era.

StockSnap / PixabayVolatility carries into the new year

This past year was one of extremes, and the markets ended i...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...

more from Kimble C.S.

Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain


Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...

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Insider Scoop Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ... more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...

more from Chart School

Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn


Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...

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Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.


more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...

more from M.T.M.


Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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