Archive for 2014

Comment by TW

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  1. TW

    I’ve heard that its valuable (if ever audited) to have a journal, or some log of your planning and trades beyond the broker’s statement, in order to prove the amount of time and time duration that you dedicated to trading as ‘your business’ -







Comment by David Ristau

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  1. David Ristau

    I am going to take MAR and BAC off right away. I will wait a few minutes on AMD…it might right the ship…might.







Comment by zeroxzero

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  1. zeroxzero

    Given the year-on-year bullishness of equity markets, both members and moderator on this site have asked where the marginal buyer can be found as these levels.  It seems that, theoretically and arithmetically, there is still reason for hope: 

     

    ""As early as 1950, Enrico Fermi asked "Where is everybody? – the Fermi-Hart paradox. He noted that there are many suns billions of years older than ours, that life should have evolved on planets around those suns, and that – if interstellar travel is possible – aliens should have developed it billions of years ago, should have colonized the galaxy within a million years or so and hence we should be hip deep in interstellar travelers. So where are they?."







Comment by chix0r

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  1. chix0r

    Opening iPhone weekend was either weak (146,000 activiations) or it took more than 2 days for people to get through the activation process…

    From the T quarterly announcment:

    Sales of the Apple iPhone have been robust. The June 29 launch allowed for less than two days of sales and activations before the end of the quarter. In that time, AT&T activated 146,000 iPhone subscribers, more than 40 percent of them new subscribers. Sales of the iPhone continue to be strong in July with store traffic above historical levels.







Comment by hazeltine

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  1. hazeltine

    Dave – Are you thinking of any plays for today?







Comment by David Ristau

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  1. David Ristau

    Oxen Alert – Ratings Updates

    Updates -

    FSLR: Wal-Mart commented that they are adding thin film solar panels to thirty stores, and it appears First Solar is in line to inherit the job. If Wal-Mart takes a large green approach with solar, it could be huge for FSLR.

    Changes -

    None.

     

    Next up for review is Cree Inc. (CREE).

    Good Investing!







When Will Interest on US National Debt Exceed $1 Trillion? When Will the Fed Hike Rates?

Courtesy of Mish.

With all the talk of tapering and expected hikes in interest rates by the Fed, inquiring minds are likely interested in what happens to interest on the national debt if the Fed ever does hike.

I asked ny friend Tim Wallace to graph that idea. The Following charts from Wallace provide a clear answer.

In these charts we make the assumption that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is accurate in its assessment of future budget deficits.

Neither Wallace nor I believe those estimates, nor do we believe the Fed is going to be in a position to tighten when they suggest they might, but here are the charts for discussion.

National Debt Trendline

Projected Interest at Various Rates

Hidden Agenda

The current blended rate of interest on the national debt is a mere 2.4% according to the CBO.

The “optimistic” projection of $668 billion assumes the rate will stay below 3.1% through 2020.



Continue Here





Comment by humvee4me

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  1. humvee4me

    Excellent Posting mish!!







Why Stocks are a “Harder Call” Now

Why Stocks are a “Harder Call” Now

Courtesy of 

Stocks seem to be facing more of a dichotomous near-term outlook than at any I time I can remember.

They’re always “hard to figure out” of course, even when we don’t think they are, but right now they seem even harder to figure out than usual, if that makes any sense. The bearish case is overvaluation and the bullish case is barely bullish – because of overvaluation (read a bunch of outlook pieces, even the guys who are positive on the markets are saying “Don’t expect another year like the last two!”).

But they’re willing to hang in there in case something really big, economically speaking, is in the works.

I frame this concept thusly:

A. We’re at the verge of a huge economic breakout after 13 years of zero real forward momentum, in which case stocks are reasonably priced and in a new secular bull market.

Or…

B. The cycle is about to come to an end with the Fed’s reduction of stimulus, the economy will continue to exhibit stagnation on its own and we’re in the process of forming a cyclical top in the equity markets as valuations and multiples have peaked out.

It genuinely feels as though we’re facing one of those two outcomes. It also feels as though the future isn’t written, that either one of these outcomes is still possible, we could go in either direction. Which means anyone can guess, but no one can actually know.

I suppose that’s why they call times like these “an inflection point.”

Here’s my friend Cardiff Garcia at FT Alphaville musing on this perplexing puzzle for stock investors:

One (partial and familiar) explanation for what happened in 2013 is simply that the behaviour of equity and fixed income markets was pulled forward in time by expectations of future monetary policy — which is how monetary policy is supposed to work.

That sounds about right. The Fed announced open-ended QE in September 2012, and it was just in December 2012 that it switched from a calendar-based to a state-contingent forward guidance. Maybe it just took a little while for


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Comment by ernest

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  1. ernest

    Ernest from West Lafayette, IN.
    I work full-time for Purdue University in the IT dept, and also do some IT consulting on the side.  My goal is to quit my job within 1-2 years once I am able to make enough each month to replace my income.  I believe this is possible given the capital I am starting with, if I can learn the concepts and be disciplined.
    In my spare time I enjoy playing tennis, watching sports, traveling, and hanging out online.
    I am looking forward to meeting other members here and learning as much as I can so that I can eventually contribute to the group’s knowledge.
    Feel free to write me anytime.  My regular e-mail address is ernest@purdue.edu.







 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018.

By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS, although on many months the (balance sheet) B/S does not actually shrink by this full amount which depends on the redemption schedule) and by end-Q4 markets also experienced some of the largest volatility and drawdowns in nearly a decade.

As Nomura&...



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ValueWalk

The Competition For Capital Has Made Stocks Cheap

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The new year is upon us, and now is the time many investors look at what 2018 was and prepare for what 2019 might be. Recession jitters are starting to pick back up again, especially now that the full picture of 2018 is in the books. But what if you could pick only one theme for 2018? Jefferies strategist Sean Darby and team have a suggestion which is especially timely given that it appears to mark the end of an era.

StockSnap / PixabayVolatility carries into the new year

This past year was one of extremes, and the markets ended i...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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