Archive for 2014

Comment by TW

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  1. TW

    I’ve heard that its valuable (if ever audited) to have a journal, or some log of your planning and trades beyond the broker’s statement, in order to prove the amount of time and time duration that you dedicated to trading as ‘your business’ -







Comment by David Ristau

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  1. David Ristau

    I am going to take MAR and BAC off right away. I will wait a few minutes on AMD…it might right the ship…might.







Comment by zeroxzero

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  1. zeroxzero

    Given the year-on-year bullishness of equity markets, both members and moderator on this site have asked where the marginal buyer can be found as these levels.  It seems that, theoretically and arithmetically, there is still reason for hope: 

     

    ""As early as 1950, Enrico Fermi asked "Where is everybody? – the Fermi-Hart paradox. He noted that there are many suns billions of years older than ours, that life should have evolved on planets around those suns, and that – if interstellar travel is possible – aliens should have developed it billions of years ago, should have colonized the galaxy within a million years or so and hence we should be hip deep in interstellar travelers. So where are they?."







Comment by chix0r

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  1. chix0r

    Opening iPhone weekend was either weak (146,000 activiations) or it took more than 2 days for people to get through the activation process…

    From the T quarterly announcment:

    Sales of the Apple iPhone have been robust. The June 29 launch allowed for less than two days of sales and activations before the end of the quarter. In that time, AT&T activated 146,000 iPhone subscribers, more than 40 percent of them new subscribers. Sales of the iPhone continue to be strong in July with store traffic above historical levels.







Comment by hazeltine

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  1. hazeltine

    Dave – Are you thinking of any plays for today?







Comment by David Ristau

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  1. David Ristau

    Oxen Alert – Ratings Updates

    Updates -

    FSLR: Wal-Mart commented that they are adding thin film solar panels to thirty stores, and it appears First Solar is in line to inherit the job. If Wal-Mart takes a large green approach with solar, it could be huge for FSLR.

    Changes -

    None.

     

    Next up for review is Cree Inc. (CREE).

    Good Investing!







When Will Interest on US National Debt Exceed $1 Trillion? When Will the Fed Hike Rates?

Courtesy of Mish.

With all the talk of tapering and expected hikes in interest rates by the Fed, inquiring minds are likely interested in what happens to interest on the national debt if the Fed ever does hike.

I asked ny friend Tim Wallace to graph that idea. The Following charts from Wallace provide a clear answer.

In these charts we make the assumption that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is accurate in its assessment of future budget deficits.

Neither Wallace nor I believe those estimates, nor do we believe the Fed is going to be in a position to tighten when they suggest they might, but here are the charts for discussion.

National Debt Trendline

Projected Interest at Various Rates

Hidden Agenda

The current blended rate of interest on the national debt is a mere 2.4% according to the CBO.

The “optimistic” projection of $668 billion assumes the rate will stay below 3.1% through 2020.



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Comment by humvee4me

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  1. humvee4me

    Excellent Posting mish!!







Why Stocks are a “Harder Call” Now

Why Stocks are a “Harder Call” Now

Courtesy of 

Stocks seem to be facing more of a dichotomous near-term outlook than at any I time I can remember.

They’re always “hard to figure out” of course, even when we don’t think they are, but right now they seem even harder to figure out than usual, if that makes any sense. The bearish case is overvaluation and the bullish case is barely bullish – because of overvaluation (read a bunch of outlook pieces, even the guys who are positive on the markets are saying “Don’t expect another year like the last two!”).

But they’re willing to hang in there in case something really big, economically speaking, is in the works.

I frame this concept thusly:

A. We’re at the verge of a huge economic breakout after 13 years of zero real forward momentum, in which case stocks are reasonably priced and in a new secular bull market.

Or…

B. The cycle is about to come to an end with the Fed’s reduction of stimulus, the economy will continue to exhibit stagnation on its own and we’re in the process of forming a cyclical top in the equity markets as valuations and multiples have peaked out.

It genuinely feels as though we’re facing one of those two outcomes. It also feels as though the future isn’t written, that either one of these outcomes is still possible, we could go in either direction. Which means anyone can guess, but no one can actually know.

I suppose that’s why they call times like these “an inflection point.”

Here’s my friend Cardiff Garcia at FT Alphaville musing on this perplexing puzzle for stock investors:

One (partial and familiar) explanation for what happened in 2013 is simply that the behaviour of equity and fixed income markets was pulled forward in time by expectations of future monetary policy — which is how monetary policy is supposed to work.

That sounds about right. The Fed announced open-ended QE in September 2012, and it was just in December 2012 that it switched from a calendar-based to a state-contingent forward guidance. Maybe it just took a little while for


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Comment by ernest

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  1. ernest

    Ernest from West Lafayette, IN.
    I work full-time for Purdue University in the IT dept, and also do some IT consulting on the side.  My goal is to quit my job within 1-2 years once I am able to make enough each month to replace my income.  I believe this is possible given the capital I am starting with, if I can learn the concepts and be disciplined.
    In my spare time I enjoy playing tennis, watching sports, traveling, and hanging out online.
    I am looking forward to meeting other members here and learning as much as I can so that I can eventually contribute to the group’s knowledge.
    Feel free to write me anytime.  My regular e-mail address is ernest@purdue.edu.







 
 
 

Zero Hedge

FBI Investigating "Criminal Enterprise" In Connection With Arrested Epstein Guards

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Update: The FBI is treating Epstein's death as a criminal matter, according to Bloomberg.

"Federal prosecutors unsealed charges against two guards at the U.S. jail in lower Manhattan who were supposed to keep watch on financier Jeffrey Epstein."

"The two guards are charged in New York with falsifying documents and conspiracy to defraud the U.S."

Kathleen Hawk Sawyer made the admission during a line of questioning involving Sen. Lindsay Graham, in front of the ...



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Phil's Favorites

Tesla's business strategy is not chaotic - it's brilliant

 

Tesla's business strategy is not chaotic – it's brilliant

Courtesy of Nathan Furr, INSEAD

Few companies have attracted as much praise, derision, scepticism and enthusiasm as Telsa Motors and its founder Elon Musk. Having interviewed Elon Musk and the Tesla leadership as part of my research, one of the questions I’m asked most frequently is: how can you make sense of Tesla’s wild strategies? The latest example is the move to create a “Gigafactory” for car batteries just outside Berlin.

Part of the challenge in understanding Tesla&...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

New York Stock Exchange Double Topping or Sending A Strong Bullish Message?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

A very broad index is testing last year’s highs, as monthly momentum is creating lower highs? Which indicator is more important, price or momentum?

This chart looks at the New York Stock Exchange Index (NYSE) on a monthly basis over the past 15-years.

The index peaked in January of 2018, as momentum was the highest since the peak in 2007.

The rally off the lows around Christmas last year, has the index testing the highs of January 2018. While the rally has taken place over the past 12-months, lofty momentum has created a series of lower highs.

Can you believe th...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Tuesday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • UBS raised AbbVie Inc (NYSE: ABBV) price target from $79 to $96. AbbVie shares closed at $88.73 on Monday.
  • JP Morgan lowered the price target for Intelsat SA (NYSE: I) from $22 to $9. Intelsat shares closed at $8.03 on Monday.
  • DA Davidson boosted the price target on Okta Inc (NASDAQ: OKTA) from $131 to $135. Okta closed at $121.15 on Monday.
  • Stifel lifted the price target for Leggett & Platt, Inc. (NYSE: ...


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Lee's Free Thinking

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

 

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

Courtesy of , Wall Street Examiner

Here’s today’s press release (11/14/19) from the NY Fed verbatim. They’ve announced that they will be making special holiday welfare payments to the Primary Dealers this Christmas season. I have highlighted the relevant text.

The Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released the schedule of repurchase agreement (repo)...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Chart School

Dow Jones cycle update and are we there yet?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Today the Dow and the SP500 are making new all time highs. However all long and strong bull markets end on a new all time high. Today no one knows how many new all time highs are to go, maybe 1 or 100+ more to go, who knows! So are we there yet?

readtheticker.com combine market tools from Richard Wyckoff, Jim Hurst and William Gann to understand and forecast price action. In concept terms (in order), demand and supply, market cycles, and time to price analysis. 

Cycle are excellent to understand the wider picture, after all markets do not move in a straight line and bear markets do follow bull markets. 



CHART 1: The Dow Jones Industrial average with the 900 period cycle.

A) Red Cycle:...

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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

 

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

Courtesy of 

As part of Coindesk’s popup podcast series centered around today’s Invest conference, I answered a few questions for Nolan Bauerly about Bitcoin from a wealth management perspective. I decided in December of 2017 that investing directly into crypto currencies was unnecessary and not a good use of a portfolio’s allocation slots. I remain in this posture today but I am openminded about how this may change in the future.

You can listen to this short exchange below:

...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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