Archive for 2014

Comment by TW

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  1. TW

    I’ve heard that its valuable (if ever audited) to have a journal, or some log of your planning and trades beyond the broker’s statement, in order to prove the amount of time and time duration that you dedicated to trading as ‘your business’ -







Comment by David Ristau

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  1. David Ristau

    I am going to take MAR and BAC off right away. I will wait a few minutes on AMD…it might right the ship…might.







Comment by zeroxzero

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  1. zeroxzero

    Given the year-on-year bullishness of equity markets, both members and moderator on this site have asked where the marginal buyer can be found as these levels.  It seems that, theoretically and arithmetically, there is still reason for hope: 

     

    ""As early as 1950, Enrico Fermi asked "Where is everybody? – the Fermi-Hart paradox. He noted that there are many suns billions of years older than ours, that life should have evolved on planets around those suns, and that – if interstellar travel is possible – aliens should have developed it billions of years ago, should have colonized the galaxy within a million years or so and hence we should be hip deep in interstellar travelers. So where are they?."







Comment by chix0r

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  1. chix0r

    Opening iPhone weekend was either weak (146,000 activiations) or it took more than 2 days for people to get through the activation process…

    From the T quarterly announcment:

    Sales of the Apple iPhone have been robust. The June 29 launch allowed for less than two days of sales and activations before the end of the quarter. In that time, AT&T activated 146,000 iPhone subscribers, more than 40 percent of them new subscribers. Sales of the iPhone continue to be strong in July with store traffic above historical levels.







Comment by hazeltine

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  1. hazeltine

    Dave – Are you thinking of any plays for today?







Comment by David Ristau

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  1. David Ristau

    Oxen Alert – Ratings Updates

    Updates -

    FSLR: Wal-Mart commented that they are adding thin film solar panels to thirty stores, and it appears First Solar is in line to inherit the job. If Wal-Mart takes a large green approach with solar, it could be huge for FSLR.

    Changes -

    None.

     

    Next up for review is Cree Inc. (CREE).

    Good Investing!







When Will Interest on US National Debt Exceed $1 Trillion? When Will the Fed Hike Rates?

Courtesy of Mish.

With all the talk of tapering and expected hikes in interest rates by the Fed, inquiring minds are likely interested in what happens to interest on the national debt if the Fed ever does hike.

I asked ny friend Tim Wallace to graph that idea. The Following charts from Wallace provide a clear answer.

In these charts we make the assumption that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is accurate in its assessment of future budget deficits.

Neither Wallace nor I believe those estimates, nor do we believe the Fed is going to be in a position to tighten when they suggest they might, but here are the charts for discussion.

National Debt Trendline

Projected Interest at Various Rates

Hidden Agenda

The current blended rate of interest on the national debt is a mere 2.4% according to the CBO.

The “optimistic” projection of $668 billion assumes the rate will stay below 3.1% through 2020.



Continue Here





Comment by humvee4me

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  1. humvee4me

    Excellent Posting mish!!







Why Stocks are a “Harder Call” Now

Why Stocks are a “Harder Call” Now

Courtesy of 

Stocks seem to be facing more of a dichotomous near-term outlook than at any I time I can remember.

They’re always “hard to figure out” of course, even when we don’t think they are, but right now they seem even harder to figure out than usual, if that makes any sense. The bearish case is overvaluation and the bullish case is barely bullish – because of overvaluation (read a bunch of outlook pieces, even the guys who are positive on the markets are saying “Don’t expect another year like the last two!”).

But they’re willing to hang in there in case something really big, economically speaking, is in the works.

I frame this concept thusly:

A. We’re at the verge of a huge economic breakout after 13 years of zero real forward momentum, in which case stocks are reasonably priced and in a new secular bull market.

Or…

B. The cycle is about to come to an end with the Fed’s reduction of stimulus, the economy will continue to exhibit stagnation on its own and we’re in the process of forming a cyclical top in the equity markets as valuations and multiples have peaked out.

It genuinely feels as though we’re facing one of those two outcomes. It also feels as though the future isn’t written, that either one of these outcomes is still possible, we could go in either direction. Which means anyone can guess, but no one can actually know.

I suppose that’s why they call times like these “an inflection point.”

Here’s my friend Cardiff Garcia at FT Alphaville musing on this perplexing puzzle for stock investors:

One (partial and familiar) explanation for what happened in 2013 is simply that the behaviour of equity and fixed income markets was pulled forward in time by expectations of future monetary policy — which is how monetary policy is supposed to work.

That sounds about right. The Fed announced open-ended QE in September 2012, and it was just in December 2012 that it switched from a calendar-based to a state-contingent forward guidance. Maybe it just took a little while for


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Comment by ernest

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  1. ernest

    Ernest from West Lafayette, IN.
    I work full-time for Purdue University in the IT dept, and also do some IT consulting on the side.  My goal is to quit my job within 1-2 years once I am able to make enough each month to replace my income.  I believe this is possible given the capital I am starting with, if I can learn the concepts and be disciplined.
    In my spare time I enjoy playing tennis, watching sports, traveling, and hanging out online.
    I am looking forward to meeting other members here and learning as much as I can so that I can eventually contribute to the group’s knowledge.
    Feel free to write me anytime.  My regular e-mail address is ernest@purdue.edu.







 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Auto Shares Surge As Fiat, Renault Confirm Merger Talks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With President Trump in Japan for a state visit and most of Europe headed to the polls to vote in the quinquennial EU Parliamentary elections, there was enough news to keep market watchers occupied during what was supposed to be a quiet holiday weekend in the US. 

But on top of these political headlines, on Saturday afternoon, the news broke that Italian-American carmaker Fiat Chrysler had approached France's Renault with a merger proposal that would leave the shareholders of each carmaker with half of the combined company, in a tie-up that would create the world's third-largest au...



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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons

 

Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>