Archive for 2014

Comment by TW

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  1. TW

    I’ve heard that its valuable (if ever audited) to have a journal, or some log of your planning and trades beyond the broker’s statement, in order to prove the amount of time and time duration that you dedicated to trading as ‘your business’ -







Comment by David Ristau

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  1. David Ristau

    I am going to take MAR and BAC off right away. I will wait a few minutes on AMD…it might right the ship…might.







Comment by zeroxzero

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  1. zeroxzero

    Given the year-on-year bullishness of equity markets, both members and moderator on this site have asked where the marginal buyer can be found as these levels.  It seems that, theoretically and arithmetically, there is still reason for hope: 

     

    ""As early as 1950, Enrico Fermi asked "Where is everybody? – the Fermi-Hart paradox. He noted that there are many suns billions of years older than ours, that life should have evolved on planets around those suns, and that – if interstellar travel is possible – aliens should have developed it billions of years ago, should have colonized the galaxy within a million years or so and hence we should be hip deep in interstellar travelers. So where are they?."







Comment by chix0r

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  1. chix0r

    Opening iPhone weekend was either weak (146,000 activiations) or it took more than 2 days for people to get through the activation process…

    From the T quarterly announcment:

    Sales of the Apple iPhone have been robust. The June 29 launch allowed for less than two days of sales and activations before the end of the quarter. In that time, AT&T activated 146,000 iPhone subscribers, more than 40 percent of them new subscribers. Sales of the iPhone continue to be strong in July with store traffic above historical levels.







Comment by hazeltine

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  1. hazeltine

    Dave – Are you thinking of any plays for today?







Comment by David Ristau

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  1. David Ristau

    Oxen Alert – Ratings Updates

    Updates -

    FSLR: Wal-Mart commented that they are adding thin film solar panels to thirty stores, and it appears First Solar is in line to inherit the job. If Wal-Mart takes a large green approach with solar, it could be huge for FSLR.

    Changes -

    None.

     

    Next up for review is Cree Inc. (CREE).

    Good Investing!







When Will Interest on US National Debt Exceed $1 Trillion? When Will the Fed Hike Rates?

Courtesy of Mish.

With all the talk of tapering and expected hikes in interest rates by the Fed, inquiring minds are likely interested in what happens to interest on the national debt if the Fed ever does hike.

I asked ny friend Tim Wallace to graph that idea. The Following charts from Wallace provide a clear answer.

In these charts we make the assumption that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is accurate in its assessment of future budget deficits.

Neither Wallace nor I believe those estimates, nor do we believe the Fed is going to be in a position to tighten when they suggest they might, but here are the charts for discussion.

National Debt Trendline

Projected Interest at Various Rates

Hidden Agenda

The current blended rate of interest on the national debt is a mere 2.4% according to the CBO.

The “optimistic” projection of $668 billion assumes the rate will stay below 3.1% through 2020.



Continue Here





Comment by humvee4me

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  1. humvee4me

    Excellent Posting mish!!







Why Stocks are a “Harder Call” Now

Why Stocks are a “Harder Call” Now

Courtesy of 

Stocks seem to be facing more of a dichotomous near-term outlook than at any I time I can remember.

They’re always “hard to figure out” of course, even when we don’t think they are, but right now they seem even harder to figure out than usual, if that makes any sense. The bearish case is overvaluation and the bullish case is barely bullish – because of overvaluation (read a bunch of outlook pieces, even the guys who are positive on the markets are saying “Don’t expect another year like the last two!”).

But they’re willing to hang in there in case something really big, economically speaking, is in the works.

I frame this concept thusly:

A. We’re at the verge of a huge economic breakout after 13 years of zero real forward momentum, in which case stocks are reasonably priced and in a new secular bull market.

Or…

B. The cycle is about to come to an end with the Fed’s reduction of stimulus, the economy will continue to exhibit stagnation on its own and we’re in the process of forming a cyclical top in the equity markets as valuations and multiples have peaked out.

It genuinely feels as though we’re facing one of those two outcomes. It also feels as though the future isn’t written, that either one of these outcomes is still possible, we could go in either direction. Which means anyone can guess, but no one can actually know.

I suppose that’s why they call times like these “an inflection point.”

Here’s my friend Cardiff Garcia at FT Alphaville musing on this perplexing puzzle for stock investors:

One (partial and familiar) explanation for what happened in 2013 is simply that the behaviour of equity and fixed income markets was pulled forward in time by expectations of future monetary policy — which is how monetary policy is supposed to work.

That sounds about right. The Fed announced open-ended QE in September 2012, and it was just in December 2012 that it switched from a calendar-based to a state-contingent forward guidance. Maybe it just took a little while for


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Comment by ernest

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  1. ernest

    Ernest from West Lafayette, IN.
    I work full-time for Purdue University in the IT dept, and also do some IT consulting on the side.  My goal is to quit my job within 1-2 years once I am able to make enough each month to replace my income.  I believe this is possible given the capital I am starting with, if I can learn the concepts and be disciplined.
    In my spare time I enjoy playing tennis, watching sports, traveling, and hanging out online.
    I am looking forward to meeting other members here and learning as much as I can so that I can eventually contribute to the group’s knowledge.
    Feel free to write me anytime.  My regular e-mail address is ernest@purdue.edu.







 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Opposite of Conventional Wisdom

 

Opposite of Conventional Wisdom

Courtesy of 

There was an article in the New York Times that highlighted the reversal of previous findings in medicine.

Of more than 3,000 studies published from 2003 through 2017 in JAMA and the Lancet…more than one of 10 amounted to a “medical reversal”: ...



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Zero Hedge

WTI Extends Losses After Smaller Than Expected Crude Draw

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Oil prices plunged today as Trump and Pompeo defused some tensions with Iran and geopolitical risk premiums were squeezed out suddenly.

“Bullish catalysts are in short supply,” analysts at London-based broker PVM Oil Associates Ltd. said in a note to clients.

“The Gulf Coast of Mexico hurricane premium is fading as offshore operations in the region resume. At the same time, the U.S. shale engine continues to give oil bulls a sleepless night.”

API

  • Crude -1.401mm...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

U.S. & Euro Financials Lagging Big Time! Should Stock Bulls Be Concerned?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Historically its been positive to see Financials doing well at the same time the broad market is pushing higher! If financial stocks are lagging bit time, should stock bulls be concerned?

This chart compares banks and in the U.S. (XLF) & Europe (EUFN) to the S&P 500 over the past 18-months.

Currently, XLF is lagging the S&P by more than 11...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For July 16, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $5.00 per share on revenue of $9.13 billion.
  • Domino's Pizza, Inc. (NYSE: DPZ) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $2.02 per share on revenue of $836.92 million.
  • JPMorgan Chase & Co. ...


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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Breaks Back Below $10k, Crypto-Crash Accelerates As Asia Opens

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Update 2010ET: Having briefly stabilized after this morning's weakness, cryptos are tumbling once again as Asian markets open.

Bitcoin has broken below $10,000 again...

*  *  *

While all eyes are on Bitcoin as it slides back towards $10,000, the real mover in the last 12 hours has been Ethereum after...



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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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ValueWalk

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

 

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

Courtesy of Jacob Wolinsky, ValueWalk

ValueWalk’s Q&A session with Professor Shubha Ghosh, a professor of law and the director of the Syracuse Intellectual Property Law Institute. In this interview, Professor Ghosh discusses his background, the Human Genome Project, the current state of gene editing, 3D printing for organ operations, and gene editing regulation.

...

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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Charts show us the golden brick road to high prices.

GLD Gann Angle has been working since 2016. Higher prices are expected. Who would say anything different, and why and how?

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



The GLD very wide channel shows us the way.
- Conservative: Tag the 10 year rally starting in 2001 to 2019 and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 10 years.
- Aggressive: Tag the 5 year rally starting in 1976 to 2019  and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 5 years.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if ima...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>