Archive for 2014

Ukraine Gas Talks Break Down; Don’t Worry Until September

Courtesy of Mish.

Ukraine gets  half of the natural gas it uses from Russia. However, it’s not an evenly distributed half. Ukraine get more than half of its needs in winter, and less in Summer. Ukraine has enough gas now to last until September.

Politics being politics, resolution of the dispute could be another two months away before anyone panics. Thus, it should be no surprise that Russian Gas Payment Talks Fail.

Ukraine risks the cutoff of natural-gas supplies from Russia after overnight talks to resolve a pricing dispute between the two countries ended without a deal less than eight hours before a payment deadline.

Ukraine must pay $1.95 billion to partially settle its debt to the Russian-owned natural gas exporter OAO Gazprom for past deliveries by 10 a.m. Moscow time today, said Sergei Kupriyanov, a company spokesman, by phone. He said the deadline won’t be waived.

“The Russian side has stated that if there will be no upfront payment, it will start limiting gas,” said Ukraine Energy Minister Yuri Prodan.

Russian negotiators rejected a compromise proposal by the European Union, according to EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger, who has been involved in the trilateral talks since they started in May.

The EU, dependent on Russian gas piped through Ukraine for about 15 percent of its supplies, is trying to broker a deal to maintain shipments amid the fuel payments conflict. In Ukraine, government forces and rebels claiming allegiance to Russia continue to clash in the east of the country.

“For the moment our Russian partners didn’t accept my proposal,” Oettinger said. “We have no common understanding.”

Ukraine was ready to accept the EU proposal of a price range between $300 and $385 per 1,000 cubic meters, still above the $286.5 that the country paid in the first quarter, Kobolyev said today. Gazprom’s final offer was $385, the company said last week.

Ukraine, which relies on Gazprom (GAZP) for about half its gas, is able to survive without Russian fuel until the middle of September as its current gas consumption almost matches domestic output due to low seasonal demand and the stalling of production at its chemical plants in the east, according to a Concorde Capital, a Kiev, Ukraine-based investment company.

The last paragraph above explains


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Convoys Of Russian Tanks Heading For Ukraine Border Ahead Of 2amET Deadline

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As the ‘negotiations’ between Europe, Ukraine, and Russia were taking place this afternoon, technically unconfirmed reports of convoys of Russian military vehicles moving towards the Ukraine border were growing. As the 2amET gas-cut-off deadline looms, it appears Putin is mobilizing a significant force ahead of what will likely mean retaliatory actions by either Ukraine military forces or Ukraine militants. As InfoResist reports, up to 200 units are moving towards Ukraine from Kaluga and in the Rostov region, Russia.

 

 

Multiple sources also confirm the movement of a large convoy of military vehicles in the Rostiv region towards the border of Ukraine…

 

And a column of military equipment near Novoshahtinsk…

 

We are sure this move will be denigrated in the West as an act of aggression… since not only did the Russians decline to play by the West’s rules and take a sizable haircut ($300 vs $500) on their already-delivered debt but are now moving military into place to protect its borders…

Keep your eye on the moving ball…

Ukraine’s new president, according to The FT, is already asking for the west to imopose fresh sanctions on Russia.





Meet The “Minerva Research Initiative” – The Pentagon’s Preparation For “Mass Civil Breakdown”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

About a month ago we showed photos of the Chinese police engaged in a drill designed to crush a “working class insurrection”, in which the police did precisely what would be required to end a middle class rebellion. It made us wonder: what does China know that the US doesn’t. As it turns out, nothing.

Because long before China was practicing counter-riot ops using rubber bullets, all the way back in 2008 the US Department of Defense was conducting studies on the dynamics of civil unrest, and how the US military might best respond. The name of the project: “Minerva Research Initiative” and its role is to ” “improve DoD’s basic understanding of the social, cultural, behavioral and political forces that shape regions of the world of strategic importance to the U.S.

The Guardian which first revealed the details, reports that, “The multi-million dollar programme is designed to develop immediate and long-term “warfighter-relevant insights” for senior officials and decision makers in “the defense policy community,” and to inform policy implemented by “combatant commands.”

The premise behind Minerva is simple: study how violent political overthrow, aka mass civil breakdown, happens in the day and age of social networks, and be prepared to counteract it – by “targeting peaceful activities and protest movements” – when it finally reaches US shores.

Among the projects awarded for the period 2014-2017 is a Cornell University-led study managed by the US Air Force Office of Scientific Research which aims to develop an empirical model “of the dynamics of social movement mobilisation and contagions.” The project will determine “the critical mass (tipping point)” of social contagians by studying their “digital traces” in the cases of “the 2011 Egyptian revolution, the 2011 Russian Duma elections, the 2012 Nigerian fuel subsidy crisis and the 2013 Gazi park protests in Turkey.”

 

Twitter posts and conversations will be examined “to identify individuals mobilised in a social contagion and when they become mobilised.”

 

Another project awarded this year to the University of Washington “seeks to uncover the conditions under which political movements aimed at large-scale political and economic change originate,” along with their “characteristics and consequences.” The project, managed by the US Army Research Office, focuses on “large-scale movements involving more than 1,000 participants in enduring activity,” and will cover 58 countries in


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Japan to keep printing money for years to come, so learn to enjoy it

Japan to keep printing money for years to come, so learn to enjoy it

The Bank of Japan will have to mop up the entire issuance of public debt for years to come, covering the budget deficit with printed money

There are no one-way bets in global finance, but Japan's stock market comes close. The authorities are about to funnel large sums into Japanese stocks openly and deliberately under the next phase of Abenomics, both by regulatory fiat and by purchasing the Nikkei index directly with printed money.

Prime minister Shinzo Abe is unshackling the world's biggest stash of savings, the $1.3 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF). Officials say the ceiling on equity holdings will rise from 12pc to around 20pc as soon as August, opening the way for a $100bn buying blitz.

Fund managers are suddenly in a race to get there first. Japan Post Bank – where Mrs Watanabe dutifully places the family money, confiscated from her Salaryman each month before he can spend it – is itching to rotate more of its $2 trillion holdings into equities before inflation pummels the bond market. So is Japan Post Insurance, no minnow either at $850bn.

Mr Abe's move comes sooner than expected and amounts to a market shock, though nobody should be shocked anymore as he keeps doubling down on the world's most radical economic experiment.

The Nikkei index stalled in December after rising almost 100pc since September 2012, even though the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is still showering the economy with money, buying $75bn of bonds each month. The BoJ's balance sheet will reach 70pc of GDP by March 2015, three times the US Federal Reserve's.

Keep reading Japan to keep printing money for years to come, so learn to enjoy it – Telegraph.





Guest Post: The Great Separation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Graham Barnes of FEASTA blog ( @GrahamJBarnes ),

What do Scottish independence, UKIP, self-employment, cryptocurrencies and the black economy have in common?
The neo-liberal establishment wont fix itself, so for those fed up with banging their heads against policy brickwalls, there’s only one direction. Separate.

 

The increasing likelihood of a Scottish yes vote hardly represents a success for the SNP’s economic arguments. Voters generally understand that the yes and no camps are trading tailored fictional economic narratives. Few buy into the scenarios painted, believe the promises, or heed the warnings. The bullying of the no campaign reinforces the zeitgeist feeling that Scotland is being bounced by a London centric establishment into a fearful retreat from independent-mindedness. A yes vote, if it comes, will be a signal separation from over-financialisation.

The main UK parties are generally blase about mid-term so-called protest votes, and take the same view of voters that the big banks take of customers – Buggins Turn will see them come back in due course. But the rise of UKIP may be a symptom of more than your average alienation. We may be experiencing the early stages of a proliferation of parties, a fragmentation encouraged (against the electoral system odds) by a creeping awareness of the nature of the democratic deficit. The new definition of a wasted vote is a vote for a party you are not 100% satisfied with. In future elections the hardest choice may be between the Pirate Party and None of the Above.

Recent official announcements on UK employment have emphasised the decrease in unemployment, but the figures reveal a much more telling statistic – that almost 15% of those working are now in self employment. This represents an increase of 367,000 in four years. Of course it is possible to present this as a negative – a migration of desperation designed by a cynical government to keep the unemployment figures down. But there is another dimension to it which should not be overlooked. Without lionising these new self-employees as startup entrepreneurs (a much over respected category according to my FEASTA colleague Brian Davey), for some the change in status can represent an escape from wage slavery. If you are going to take on the responsibility for directing your own employment, then the opportunity…
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Bond Kings to be Dethroned in Second Half of the Year

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by EconMatters.

By EconMatters   

 

Jeffrey Gundlach`s Outlook

 

Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital LP says the 10-year U.S. Treasury note will likely trade in a range between 2.20 and 2.80 percent during the second half of year. Gundlach also said U.S. Treasuries are a buy for investors as they are yielding in the upper half of his projected trading range. He said this on June 10th of 2014 and it seems he still expects the 10-year yield to be lower than the 2.40% bottom put in about 3 weeks and 20 basis points ago. 

 

He runs primarily a bond fund, and he gets paid mainly on assets under management, so talking one`s book to encourage more inflows into the fund is very important for his business model. Therefore it is hard to know whether this is just ‘sales tactical speak’ or he legitimately believes that the 10-year hasn`t put in the bottom for not only this year but maybe for the next five to ten years and beyond as many on Wall Street believe.  

 

George Clooney Doesn`t Need to Take Profits

 

However, if he generally is drinking the Bond Kool-Aid, and who can blame him with all the craziness of central bank intervention, that means he didn`t take profits when many did at the 2.40% lows, as the same day yields were back at 2.47%, a 7 basis point move, and quickly moved another 25 basis points higher before settling back at the 2.60% level. If I


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“Cluster Of Central Banks” Have Secretly Invested $29 Trillion In The Market

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Another conspiracy "theory" becomes conspiracy "fact" as The FT reports "a cluster of central banking investors has become major players on world equity markets." The report, to be published this week by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), confirms $29.1tn in market investments, held by 400 public sector institutions in 162 countries, which "could potentially contribute to overheated asset prices." China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange has become “the world’s largest public sector holder of equities”, according to officials, and we suspect the Fed is close behind (courtesy of more levered positions at Citadel), as the world's banks try to diversify themselves and "counters the monopoly power of the dollar." Which leaves us wondering where are the central bank 13Fs?

While most have assumed that this is likely, the recent exuberance in stocks has largely been laid at the foot of another irrational un-economic actor – the corporate buyback machine. However, as The FT reports, what we have speculated as fact for many years now (given the death cross of irrationality, plunging volumes, lack of engagement, and of course dwindling credibility of central planners)… is now fact…

Central banks around the world, including China’s, have shifted decisively into investing in equities as low interest rates have hit their revenues, according to a global study of 400 public sector institutions.

 

“A cluster of central banking investors has become major players on world equity markets,” says a report to be published this week by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (Omfif), a central bank research and advisory group. The trend “could potentially contribute to overheated asset prices”, it warns.

 

 

The report, seen by the Financial Times, identifies $29.1tn in market investments, including gold, held by 400 public sector institutions in 162 countries.

 

 

China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange has become “the world’s largest public sector holder of equities”, as the report argues is “partly strategic” because it “counters the monopoly power of the dollar” and reflects Beijing’s global financial ambitions.

 

 

In Europe, the Swiss and Danish central banks are among those investing in equities. The Swiss National Bank has an equity quota of about 15 per cent. Omfif quotes Thomas Jordan, SNB’s chairman,


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PReCiSeLY WHo ARe THeSe F—ing PeoPLe You ARe ReFeRRiNG To SeNaToR Up-YouR-______?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.

“To the American people, I know you’re war-weary, I know you’re tired of dealing with the Mideast…But the people that are moving into Iraq and holding ground in Syria have as part of their agenda not only to drive us out of the Mideast, but to hit our homeland.”--Lindsey Graham

 

WB7: Precisely who the fucking neo-clown Cheney are these “people” you are referring to Senator Up-Your-Ass?

 

 

 .

.

 

 

.
.

 

 

Then we have this:

 

“Tragically, all we’ve fought for in Iraq, all that 4,500 American lives were shed to gain, is on the cusp, potentially, of vanishing,” --Mitt Zombie For Halloween

 

WB7: Precisely what is this “all” you are referring to, and what do you mean by “we” you fucking chickenhawk…

 

.





Are MasterCard And Visa In Apple’s Crosshairs?

Are MasterCard And Visa In Apple's Crosshairs?

By Paul McWilliams at Rivershore Capital

Credit cards Français : Cartes de crédit Itali...[Paul McWilliams is an important contributor to Rivershore Capital. My friend, Rick Neaton, is the owner of Rivershore Capital. Its research department, Rivershore Investment Research (RIR), focuses on providing its subscribers with detailed analysis and information about the stock markets, specific stocks, and the underlying macro and micro trends that affect their movement. More here.]

Introduction by Matt Schifrin at Forbes

A few weeks ago I put up a guest post from technology stock expert Paul McWilliams on Alibaba and why its long tail makes Amazon.com's seem like a bobcat’s (click to read). With all the news coming out about Apple – from its Beats acquisition announcement to its new operating system release — McWilliams sent me the following update on the stock. McWilliams thinks Beats is a small positive but what he is really excited about is something no one seems to be focusing on. It’s the potential for Apple to use its success in fingerprint technology and its giant user-base to disrupt the $500 billion credit card business dominated by duopolists MasterCard and Visa. Read on:

By Paul McWilliams

With Apple now trading a couple percent above the high side of the estimated full value range I last published in a March 2014 report, it’s time to take another look.

After I first suggested thinning Apple allocations in first quarter 2012 at a price similar to what it trades for today, and then encouraging Next Inning readers to sell in total when it moved above $700 in third quarter 2012, I maintained a cautious view of the stock as we watched CEO Tim Cook gain his footing. What bothered me most about Cook then was there was no evidence that he understood what I viewed as Apple’s core ecosystem business model.

With the price of AAPL then below $400, I noted the low valuation as a reason to consider AAPL in my second quarter 2013 State of Tech report, but I didn’t get constructive on the stock until September 2013 when AAPL


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Russia Rejects Ukraine’s Gas Deal; 2am Eastern Deadline Looms

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As suspected given the huge distance between the bid and offer, the EU-brokered Ukraine-Russia gas deal has failed:

  • GAZPROM CEO MILLER LEAVES SITE OF UKRAINE GAS TALKS
  • GAZPROM SAYS TALKS ENDED, DEADLINE WON’T CHANGE (negotiate that!)
  • RUSSIA REJECTED EU’S GAS PROPOSAL: OETTINGER
  • UKRAINE WAS READY TO ACCEPT EU PROPOSAL ($300-$385): PRODAN (lol!!)

Gazprom seeks $1.95bn from Ukraine for past shipments of gas by the 10am Moscow time deadline (2amET) and will continue to seek upfront payments for any further shipments.

As Reuters notes,

Russia and Ukraine failed to resolve a gas pricing dispute at talks and a 0600 GMT deadline for Ukraine to pay $1.95 billion in gas debts still stands, a spokesman for Russian natural gas producer Gazprom said on Monday. Spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov said after talks in Kiev that Russia would switch to an advance payment system if it did not receive the money, meaning Moscow could cut off gas supplies to Ukraine.

Cutting supplies could disrupt the gas flow to the European Union.

“The talks in Kiev … finished around 2:30 a.m. Moscow time (2230 GMT on Sunday). The Russian side is expecting payment of the accumulated gas debt of $1.951 billion before 10 a.m. (0600 GMT) on June 16,” Kupriyanov said.

“If the funds are not paid, gas supplies will, as was announced earlier, be switched to a pre-payment system.”

Russia and Ukraine disagree how much Kiev should pay for the natural gas it receives from Russia.

European Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger told reporters in Kiev that he had made a compromise proposal during talks which began late on Sunday but Moscow had declined the offer. This follows after weeks of Oettinger assuring anyone who cares to listen to him that a deal was assured. Apparently not.

The lack of a deal is hardly surprising given the distance between bid and offer (as Bloomberg notes),

EU proposed gas price range of about $300-$385/kcm, Naftogaz CEO Kobolyev says at news conference in Kiev.

 

Gazprom sought about $500/kcm; Ukraine won’t pay $500/kcm: Kobolyev

 

Ukraine was ready to accept EU proposal: Ukraine Energy Minister Proda

It seems the market had begun to expect this failure…


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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons

 

Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...



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Zero Hedge

Silver Specs Signal It's Time To Start Buying

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

The gold futures market took a big step towards bullish — or at least neutral — in the past week. Speculators (usually wrong at big turning points) scaled back their long bets while commercials (usually right at turning points) reduced their net short positions.

...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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