Archive for 2014

Swing trading portfolio – week of August 18th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.</p></body></html>

 





Ferguson Riots Again: Police, Looters Exchange Teargas , Rubber Bullets, Molotov Cocktails: Live Webcast

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

UPDATE: Shots fired…

 

 

After more than a week of violent confrontations, tensions continues in Ferguson (following the death of Mike Brown – shot at least 6 times, twice in the head). The second night of quasi-martial-law in the Missouri town has once again erupted into riots (the third night in a row) as militarized police response just hours ahead of the midnight curfew. Protesters have looted stores and restaurants (including a McDonalds) and the once again heavily-armed police forces have responded in force with tear-gas and rubber bullets (to which protesters are responding with Molotov cocktails and returning gas canisters). This shows no signs of de-escalation at all as crowds chant “who polices the cops?” CNN reports at least one protester hit by rubber bullets and multiple injuries. Multiple gun shots heard – police: “leave or be arrested.”

 

The police tactical response was triggered, according to a Lieutenant with St Louis city PD, by an attack on the command post with Molotov cocktails…

 

 

 

 

Live Feed 1:

 

Live Feed 2:

 

The images are once again stunning…

 

 


continue reading





Ron Paul: “What Have We Accomplished In Iraq?”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

By Ron Paul

What Have We Accomplished in Iraq?

We have been at war with Iraq for 24 years, starting with Operations Desert Shield and Storm in 1990. Shortly after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait that year, the propaganda machine began agitating for a US attack on Iraq. We all remember the appearance before Congress of a young Kuwaiti woman claiming that the Iraqis were ripping Kuwaiti babies from incubators. The woman turned out to be the daughter of the Kuwaiti ambassador to the US and the story was false, but it was enough to turn US opposition in favor of an attack.
 
This month, yet another US president – the fifth in a row – began bombing Iraq. He is also placing in US troops on the ground despite promising not to do so.
 
The second Iraq war in 2003 cost the US some two trillion dollars. According to estimates, more than one million deaths have occurred as a result of that war. Millions of tons of US bombs have fallen in Iraq almost steadily since 1991.
 
What have we accomplished? Where are we now, 24 years later? We are back where we started, at war in Iraq!
 
The US overthrew Saddam Hussein in the second Iraq war and put into place a puppet, Nouri al-Maliki. But after eight years, last week the US engineered a coup against Maliki to put in place yet another puppet. The US accused Maliki of misrule and divisiveness, but what really irritated the US government was his 2011 refusal to grant immunity to the thousands of US troops that Obama wanted to keep in the country.
 
Early this year, a radical Islamist group, ISIS, began taking over territory in Iraq, starting with Fallujah. The organization had been operating in Syria, strengthened by US support for the overthrow of the Syrian government. ISIS obtained a broad array of sophisticated US weapons in Syria, very often capturing them from other US-approved opposition groups. Some claim that lax screening criteria allowed some ISIS fighters to even participate in secret CIA training camps in Jordan and Turkey.
 
This month, ISIS became the target of a new US bombing campaign in Iraq. The pretext…
continue reading





Korean Kombat Caption Contest

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Uh……?





Police Militarization In Ferguson, Missouri

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

By Walter Olson of Overlawyered

Police Militarization In Ferguson, Missouri

Why armored vehicles in a Midwestern inner suburb? Why would cops wear camouflage gear against a terrain patterned by convenience stores and beauty parlors? Why are the authorities in Ferguson, Mo. so given to quasi-martial crowd control methods (such as bans on walking on the street) and, per the reporting of Riverfront Times, the firing of tear gas at people in their own yards? (“‘This my property!’ he shouted, prompting police to fire a tear gas canister directly at his face.”) Why would someone identifying himself as an 82nd Airborne Army veteran, observing the Ferguson police scene, comment that “We rolled lighter than that in an actual warzone“?

As most readers have reason to know by now, the town of Ferguson, Mo. outside St. Louis, numbering around 21,000 residents, is the scene of an unfolding drama that will be cited for years to come as a what-not-to-do manual for police forces. After police shot and killed an unarmed black teenager on the street, then left his body on the pavement for four hours, rioters destroyed many local stores. Since then, reportedly, police have refused to disclose either the name of the cop involved or the autopsy results on young Michael Brown; have not managed to interview a key eyewitness even as he has told his story repeatedly on camera to the national press; have revealed that dashcams for police cars were in the city’s possession but never installed; have obtained restrictions on journalists, including on news-gathering overflights of the area; and more.

The dominant visual aspect of the story, however, has been the sight of overpowering police forces confronting unarmed protesters who are seen waving signs or just their hands.

If you’re new to the issue of police militarization, which Overlawyered has covered occasionally over the past few years, the key book is Radley Balko’s, discussed at this Cato forum:

Federal grants drive police militarization. In 2012, as I was able to establish in moments through an online search, St. Louis County (of which Ferguson is a part) got a Bearcat armored vehicle and other goodies this way. The practice can serve to dispose of military surplus (though I’m told
continue reading





Chartporn: 18 Charts Exploring How The Ageing World Will Shape The Global Economy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Curious how the demographics of an aging world increasingly impact the economy, the spending, consumption and saving patterns, the earnings and wealth potential of various age groups, and the amount of pension funds available to satisfy an ever growing pie of future welfare recipients? Then the following 18 charts are for just you.





China Contagion: Diamonds & Wine Plunge To 4-Year Lows

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As classic Ferraris break records on the shores at Pebble Beach, the “poor” rich-man’s (and girl’s) best friend (fine-wine and diamonds) has tumbled to 4-year lows. On the heels of a crackdown on corruption in China, as Bloomberg notes, Fine Wine prices have plunged over 30% from July 2011 highs and the end of the “show-off” era in Xi’s new normal has sent 1 carat dimaond prices also down over 30% from their highs. It would appear the world’s wealthiest are done with such small increments of wealth as fine wines and diamonds, preferring $100 million apartments and $38 million ferraris.

 

 

As Bloomberg concludes,

Wang said China’s wealthy are being less ostentatious not only in their choice of ornaments. Bans or limits on official banquets and gift-giving have forced premium wine brands to “re-adjust their positioning and present more middle-end products with lower prices,” he said.

China last year passed France as the largest consumer of red wine, Les Echos reported in January. Under Xi’s anti-corruption campaign, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection can detain indefinitely and investigate any of China’s roughly 87 million Communist Party members.





Daily Market Commentary: Tetchy Friday

Courtesy of Declan.

Ukrainian fears (mis-information) knocked Friday’s morning rally before markets staged a recovery by the close. Sellers are likely to remain trigger happy but bulls have been willing to snap up these sell offs. Volume climbed to register distribution in non-Tech indices, but the August bounce from swing lows remain intact.

The S&P closed between the 20-day and 50-day MAs, but with a bullish cross in stochastics and a new MACD trigger ‘buy’.


The Nasdaq came close to tagging 4,485, but unlike Large and Small Cap indices it finished higher. Watch for a potential breakout on Monday. Technicals are again all net bullish

The Nasdaq 100 is closer to making that new high. Like the Nasdaq, all technicals are all net bullish.

Those waiting for value opportunity in the Nasdaq will want to see another leg lower in market breadth to oversold (green highlight) areas.

On the flip side, the Russell 2000 closed with a bearish engulfing pattern off its 200-day MA. Will it now attempt the backtest? The channel breakout is confirmed, but it’s now having to work through supply at the moving averages.  Once these are cleared, a challenge of 1,210 is next.

Shorts may get some joy from the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It reversed off resistance, but the ‘bear trap’ is still in play. Stops on a close above 16,775 (with a target of the 200-day MA).

For Monday, look for weakness in Large Caps, but breakout opportunities in Tech.

Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more.





Goldman On The Consequences Of Recent Geopolitical Events

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The current US air strikes in Iraq are unlikely to have a significant impact on defense spending or oil prices, Goldman Sachs writes, unless the scale of the conflict changes considerably. Evidence from past US conflicts that were similar in scale also suggests little impact on confidence and at most mixed evidence of a flight-to-safety effect in financial markets. The exchange of sanctions with Russia – a relatively minor US trading partner – is also likely to have only a modest impact on the US economy. Of course, Goldman caveats, both situations are highly unpredictable; as they expect little reaction to recent events from Fed officials, who have generally not discussed conflicts of this magnitude unless accompanied by other economic concerns, such as a large rise in oil prices.

Via Goldman Sachs,

In today’s note, we answer a number of frequent questions about recent geopolitical developments, in particular the recent air strikes in Iraq and the latest rounds of sanctions between the US and Russia.

Q: How are the current air strikes in Iraq likely to affect defense spending?

A: On August 7, President Obama announced that he had had ordered the US military to conduct air strikes in Iraq against forces of the Islamic State (ISIS) and to distribute aid to refugees from the fighting, but said that he “will not allow the United States to be dragged into another war in Iraq” (New York Times). As currently planned, the action would be most similar to previous small-scale air operations, such as a 1998 action in Iraq or the 2011 conflict in Libya, in which costs have run from the hundreds of million to about $1bn, as shown in Exhibit 1. Relative to monthly Department of Defense outlays in excess of $40bn, such costs would not noticeably change the defense spending picture. In terms of timing, national accounts data on sub-categories of defense spending (in particular missiles) surrounding eleven previous conflicts of this magnitude (shown below in Exhibit 3) suggest that the impact is likely to appear in the initial or following quarter, if it is observable at all.

Military actions can of course be highly unpredictable, and past experience suggests that spending risks are slanted to the upside: as economist William Nordhaus has noted, the costs of past US conflicts were frequently…
continue reading





Market Crash 1929, Mystery Unraveled?

Courtesy of Doug Short.

In the twenties of the last century the world, and especially the United States, experienced an economical high. As a result of this, share and stock prices rose to unprecedented heights, beyond reasonable values. The underlying economy had decreased in strength without this being reflected on the stock exchange. Investors were euphoric and stock prices were forced up against all economic logic.(1)

In my view the causes for the rise of the Dow Jones to unprecedented highs were the introduction of a new calculation method for the Dow on 1 October 1928, the introduction of the Dow-divisor, the extension of the Dow from 20 to 30 funds on 1 October 1928 and splitting the stock between October 1928 and November 1929 which was the last part of the acceleration phase of the second industrial revolution. These 3 factors caused the Dow to rise exponentially from 238 tot 381 points in de period October 1928 to September 1929, while the underlying economy strongly diminished in strength.

Transitions

Every production phase, civilization or other human invention goes through a so called transformation process. Transitions are social transformation processes that cover at least one generation. In this article I will use one such transition to demonstrate the position of our present civilization and its possible effect on stock exchange rates.

A transition has the following characteristics(2):

  • it involves a structural change of civilization or a complex subsystem of our civilization
  • it shows technological, economical, ecological, socio cultural and institutional changes at different levels that influence and enhance each other
  • it is the result of slow changes (changes in supplies) and fast dynamics (flows)

A transition process is not fixed from the start because during the transition processes will adapt to the new situation. A transition is not dogmatic.

Four transition phases(3)

In general transitions can be seen to go through the S curve and we can distinguish four phases (see fig. 1):

  1. a pre development phase of a dynamic balance in which the present status does not visibly change
  2. a take off phase in which the process of change starts because of changes in the system
  3. an acceleration phase in which visible structural changes take place through an accumulation of socio cultural, economical, ecological and institutional changes influencing each other; in this phase we see collective learning processes, diffusion


continue reading





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018.

By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS, although on many months the (balance sheet) B/S does not actually shrink by this full amount which depends on the redemption schedule) and by end-Q4 markets also experienced some of the largest volatility and drawdowns in nearly a decade.

As Nomura&...



more from Ilene

ValueWalk

The Competition For Capital Has Made Stocks Cheap

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The new year is upon us, and now is the time many investors look at what 2018 was and prepare for what 2019 might be. Recession jitters are starting to pick back up again, especially now that the full picture of 2018 is in the books. But what if you could pick only one theme for 2018? Jefferies strategist Sean Darby and team have a suggestion which is especially timely given that it appears to mark the end of an era.

StockSnap / PixabayVolatility carries into the new year

This past year was one of extremes, and the markets ended i...



more from ValueWalk

Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



more from Kimble C.S.

Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



more from Bitcoin

Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



more from Chart School

Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



more from Our Members

Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>