Archive for 2014

Immigration For Republicans

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Keith Weiner via Acting-Man blog,

This essay is not intended to address a crisis that may be occurring on the border at this time. We make no comment on that. Nor does it discuss the issues around war, such as how to deal with citizens of enemy nations. This essay is not a policy proposal, it does not set out, for example, when an immigrant can become a citizen and attain the vote or what to do to immigrants who commit crimes. It has but one purpose: to enumerate and respond to the common arguments used in favor of an impenetrable and guarded border fence to shut down immigration.

It's the Law …

Suppose you were born in a country that outlawed normal life. North Korea comes to mind. Venezuela is a slightly less extreme example, and there are many other examples which are slightly less bad than that socialist worker’s paradise.

I phrase it in these terms, because this is the essence of the issue. People are rightfully fleeing places where they cannot live.

Anyway, suppose you are in a place where life is a living hell. Every day, you are forced to beg and steal scraps of food to somehow stay alive. The best you can hope for is to subsist, one day at a time. You must avoid the gangs and the secret police.

If you could somehow scrape together the money to escape to America, would you?

You would take a job paying minimum wage—or less—doing long days of unskilled manual labor, if necessary. At least in America, you can work and you can begin to build a better life for yourself and your family.

But you notice that people call you “illegal.” They don’t refer to any crime you commit, because you are no criminal. You never steal from anyone, hurt anyone, and or do anything else that could objectively be called a crime. You work hard for every penny you earn. But they call you “illegal” anyway.

You come to realize that when they say illegal, they refer to you, not your actions. Your very existence so utterly offends them that they think you are crime incarnate.

You notice that most of them drive faster than the posted speed
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China Plans To Unveil Domestic “Operating System” In October

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

With Russia pushing to end its government’s dependency on Microsoft’s Operating System, it is perhaps not surprising (especially following the various raids that have been undertaken) that another BRICS member, as Reuters reports, China could have a new homegrown operating system by October to take on imported rivals such as Microsoft, Google, and Apple, Xinhua news agency said on Sunday. A spokesperson stated, China hoped domestically built software would be able to replace desktop operating systems within one to two years and mobile operating systems within three to five years.

 

As Reuters reports, China could have a new homegrown operating system by October…

Computer technology became an area of tension between China and the United States after a number of run-ins over cyber security. China is now looking to help its domestic industry catch up with imported systems such as Microsoft’s Windows and Google’s mobile operating system Android.

 

The operating system would first appear on desktop devices and later extend to smartphone and other mobile devices, Xinhua said, citing Ni Guangnan who heads an official OS development alliance established in March.

 

Ni’s comments were originally reported by the People’s Post and Telecommunications News, an official trade paper run by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT).

 

We hope to launch a Chinese-made desktop operating system by October supporting app stores,” Ni told the trade paper. Some Chinese OS already existed, but there was a large gap between China’s technology and that of developed countries, he added.

 

He said he hoped domestically built software would be able to replace desktop operating systems within one to two years and mobile operating systems within three to five years.

Of course this is no sudden decision as said in May China said that “governments and enterprises of a few
countries” are taking advantage of their monopoly status and
technological edge to collect sensitive information.

In May, China banned government use of Windows 8, Microsoft’s latest operating system, a blow to the U.S. technology firm’s business which raised fears China was moving to protect domestic firms. Microsoft is also under investigation for anti-trust violations.

In March last year, China said that Google had too much


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Local Paper Sums Up Jackson Hole Perfectly

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

There was something missing at this year’s Jackson Hole meeting of the world’s most ‘brilliant’ monetary minds – a stock market rally – and while VIX was slammed lower (by mysterious forces assuming that uncertainty must have fallen), even the local rag understood i) the context – Yellen did not even make the main headline in The Jackson Hole Daily (the ‘common folk’ preferring something far more – or less – trivial, like the weather); and ii) All she has done is raise uncertainty. We await the machines to manually read these headlines before the requisite trading actions are taken… It seems, as we noted before, the Fed’s magic is running out (for now).

 

 

*  *  *

Simply put, no one cares about Yellen except the 1%!

 

h/t @BCAppelbaum





CME Delays Futures Opens Due To “Glitch”; Update: To Reopen At 9:00 PM Central

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Update:

  • *CME GLOBEX RESUMES FUTURES TRADING AFTER TECHNICAL ISSUE

 

Looks like the machines want to run post-Yellen stops… to new record highs…

 

Perhaps someone needs to tell Treasury Futures it’s time to sell off and keep the dream alive…

 

Update:

  • CME GLOBEX MARKETS TO OPEN 9 P.M. IN CHICAGO
  • CME GLOBEX TO PRE-OPEN 8:30 PM CT, OPEN AT 9 PM CT: CME GROUP
  • CME: ALL DAY, SESSION ORDERS WITH AUG. 24 TRADE DATE CANCELLED

It appears – judging from FX markets this evening – that consensus on Jackson Hole is Yellen was more hawkish and Draghi & Kuroda more dovish than expected. The USD index is pushing on towards one-year highs as EUR is down 50 pips (not helped by a dovish FT article on deflation fears) to 11-month lows, and USDJPY broke to as high as 104.45 (weakest JPY in 7 months). In addition to this action, the CME confirms all Futures products will have a delayed opening due to technical issues with NO estimated opening time.

CME’s only statement… on GCC site…

  • *ALL CME GLOBEX MARKETS EXCEPT BURSA MALAYSIA HALTED, CME SAYS

 

Phone call to Chris Grams, press officer at CME, was not immediately returned

 

USDJPY at 7-month highs

 

EUR tumbling to 11-month lows…

 

Of course, there is no need for futures trading anymore since The Fed will merely extend its “communications” policy to announce the end of day print for the S&P 500 each morning going forward…

 

But for those wondering, EURJPY implies an S&P open around 7 points down… though we suspect USDJPY will be in charge and stocks are lifted.

 

Charts: Bloomberg





What’s $100 Really Worth In Each State?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Because average prices for similar goods are much higher in California or New York than in Mississippi or South Dakota, The Tax Foundation notes points out that the same amount of dollars will buy you comparatively less in the high-price states, or comparatively more in low-price states. Regional price differences are strikingly large, and have serious policy implications. The same amount of dollars are worth almost 40 percent more in Mississippi than in DC, and the differences become even larger if metro area prices are considered instead of statewide averages.

 

 

For example, Tennessee is a low-price state, where $100 will buy what would cost $110.25 in another state that is closer to the national average. You can think of this as meaning that Tennesseans are about ten percent richer than their nominal incomes suggest.

The states where $100 is worth the least are the District of Columbia ($84.60), Hawaii ($85.32), New York ($86.66), New Jersey ($87.64), and California ($88.57). That same money goes the furthest in Mississippi ($115.74), Arkansas ($114.16), Missouri ($113.51), Alabama (113.51), and South Dakota ($113.38).

A person who makes $40,000 a year after tax in Kentucky would need to have after-tax earnings of $53,000 in Washington, DC just in order to have an equal standard of living, let alone feel richer.

 

Source: The Tax Foundation





No More Broken Promises In One Cartoon

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Boots on the ground?

 

Source: Cagle Post

h/t Sunday Funnies





The Broken Links In The Fed’s Chain Of Cause & Effect

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Excerpted from John Hussman’s Weekly Market Comment,

The Federal Reserve’s prevailing view of the world seems to be that a) QE lowers interest rates, b) lower interest rates stimulate jobs and economic activity, c) the only risk from QE will be at the point when unemployment is low enough to trigger inflation, and d) the Fed can safely encourage years of yield-seeking speculation – of the same sort that produced the worst economic collapse since the Depression – on the belief that this time is different. From the foregoing discussion, it should be clear that this chain of cause and effect is a very mixed bag of fact and fiction.

To be fair, we do believe that some components of the Fed’s thinking are well-supported by economic evidence. For example, in her presentation at Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Janet Yellen observed that real wage inflation remains low, and that this is an indication of ongoing slack in the labor market that isn’t well-captured by the rate of unemployment. On this point, we would completely agree. To the extent that the true Phillips Curve (which relates unemployment to real wage inflation) describes reality, it’s sensible to assert that low real wage inflation informs us that the unemployment rate has not declined to a level that reflects labor market scarcity – though we should also recognize that real wage growth would already be much higher if there was not such an extreme gap between real wage growth and productivity growth.

Where we differ from Chair Yellen is in a variety of supposed cause-effect relationships that aren’t supported by evidence to any meaningful extent, and in the neglect of systemic risks that are undeniable if one has been paying any attention at all to the macroeconomy over the past 15 years.

Let’s trace some of the links in the chain of cause and effect.

First it’s clear that increasing the monetary base relative to nominal GDP will predictably and reliably lower short-term interest rates. This is true at least until the point that, as has occurred across history and across countries, inflation picks up rather uncontrollably – often following a supply shock coupled with government deficit spending – with very little at all to do with the prevailing unemployment rate.


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Oil After US Hegemony

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Via BofAML's Global Commodity Research team,

Oil after US hegemony

Volatility of global oil output has fallen to historic lows…

We recently discussed how a confluence of factors had pushed oil price volatility down in recent years (see “OPEC discord and oil stability”). Macro drivers such as massive monetary easing have helped, but a collapse in global oil production fluctuations to historic lows has been perhaps the key micro dampener of oil price volatility (Chart 2). The elimination of individual OPEC country quotas has led to increased operating flexibility for Saudi, Kuwait, and UEA. This shift has resulted in higher output swings at an individual OPEC country level, but lower vol for the cartel as a whole (Chart 3). In our view, the three swing suppliers have enough operational and financial bandwidth to keep going, and we have previously stated that Brent prices will not fall for long below $100/bbl unless Saudi wants them to.

…even though individual country disruptions skyrocketed

What are the limits of this operating bandwidth should geopolitics worsen? With Saudi theoretical spare capacity at 2.4 million b/d, the scope to accommodate the next major geopolitical event may be limited. In fact, supply disruptions are already at a very high point, as noted in our analysis of OPEC production volatility. Libya and Iran combined add up to 2.2 million b/d of oil supply lost, but many other countries have also failed to increased supply as expected (Chart 4). When looking at supply disruptions historically, we find that we are currently at the highest level since March and before that since the Gulf War of the early 90s (Chart 4). If we dig further and break down this data into violence and nonviolence related oil supply disruptions, we can clearly see how armed conflict has become a major driver of global oil output swings (Chart 5).

Geopolitical energy risk has risen a lot in recent years

From Arab Spring-related uprisings in Libya or Egypt, to a civil war in Syria and now violence in Iraq and the Ukraine, geopolitical tensions have been on the rise across many key energy production and transit countries (Chart 6). This increase in violent conflict has religious, ethnic, cultural, political, or economic roots, among others. Even climate change and the fight for increasingly scarce resources…
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CME Delays Futures Opens Due To “Glitch”, USD Jumps On EUR, JPY Weakness

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

It appears – judging from FX markets this evening – that consensus on Jackson Hole is Yellen was more hawkish and Draghi & Kuroda more dovish than expected. The USD index is pushing on towards one-year highs as EUR is down 50 pips (not helped by a dovish FT article on deflation fears) to 11-month lows, and USDJPY broke to as high as 104.45 (weakest JPY in 7 months). In addition to this action, the CME confirms all Futures products will have a delayed opening due to technical issues with NO estimated opening time.

CME’s only statement… on GCC site…

  • *ALL CME GLOBEX MARKETS EXCEPT BURSA MALAYSIA HALTED, CME SAYS

 

Phone call to Chris Grams, press officer at CME, was not immediately returned

 

USDJPY at 7-month highs

 

EUR tumbling to 11-month lows…

 

Of course, there is no need for futures trading anymore since The Fed will merely extend its “communications” policy to announce the end of day print for the S&P 500 each morning going forward…

 

But for those wondering, EURJPY implies an S&P open around 7 points down…

 

Charts: Bloomberg





The Fed Will Raise Rates in March 2015

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by EconMatters.

By EconMatters

 

 

 

March or June?

 

The big question for financial markets is whether the Fed will raise rates in March or June, it used to be Whether it would be June or September of 2015, and I think as the data gets better in the second half of the year, and QE ends in October, the timeline could be moved up even further, say January of 2015 for the first rate hike.

 


Data Dependent creates box for the Fed

 

For example, what happens to expectations if besides the consistent 200k plus employment reports each month we get a 350k number? What kind of pressure will this put on the Fed to move on rates, especially sense QE has ended in October? I think there is a distinct possibility over the next five months that we have a 350k plus employment report, and the Fed line about changing data and data dependent comes into play. In this case they set the bar for moving sooner or later, and the bar would be surpassed with a 350k employment report. 

 


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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons

 

Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...



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Zero Hedge

Silver Specs Signal It's Time To Start Buying

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

The gold futures market took a big step towards bullish — or at least neutral — in the past week. Speculators (usually wrong at big turning points) scaled back their long bets while commercials (usually right at turning points) reduced their net short positions.

...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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