Archive for 2014

Immigration For Republicans

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Keith Weiner via Acting-Man blog,

This essay is not intended to address a crisis that may be occurring on the border at this time. We make no comment on that. Nor does it discuss the issues around war, such as how to deal with citizens of enemy nations. This essay is not a policy proposal, it does not set out, for example, when an immigrant can become a citizen and attain the vote or what to do to immigrants who commit crimes. It has but one purpose: to enumerate and respond to the common arguments used in favor of an impenetrable and guarded border fence to shut down immigration.

It's the Law …

Suppose you were born in a country that outlawed normal life. North Korea comes to mind. Venezuela is a slightly less extreme example, and there are many other examples which are slightly less bad than that socialist worker’s paradise.

I phrase it in these terms, because this is the essence of the issue. People are rightfully fleeing places where they cannot live.

Anyway, suppose you are in a place where life is a living hell. Every day, you are forced to beg and steal scraps of food to somehow stay alive. The best you can hope for is to subsist, one day at a time. You must avoid the gangs and the secret police.

If you could somehow scrape together the money to escape to America, would you?

You would take a job paying minimum wage—or less—doing long days of unskilled manual labor, if necessary. At least in America, you can work and you can begin to build a better life for yourself and your family.

But you notice that people call you “illegal.” They don’t refer to any crime you commit, because you are no criminal. You never steal from anyone, hurt anyone, and or do anything else that could objectively be called a crime. You work hard for every penny you earn. But they call you “illegal” anyway.

You come to realize that when they say illegal, they refer to you, not your actions. Your very existence so utterly offends them that they think you are crime incarnate.

You notice that most of them drive faster than the posted speed
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China Plans To Unveil Domestic “Operating System” In October

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

With Russia pushing to end its government’s dependency on Microsoft’s Operating System, it is perhaps not surprising (especially following the various raids that have been undertaken) that another BRICS member, as Reuters reports, China could have a new homegrown operating system by October to take on imported rivals such as Microsoft, Google, and Apple, Xinhua news agency said on Sunday. A spokesperson stated, China hoped domestically built software would be able to replace desktop operating systems within one to two years and mobile operating systems within three to five years.

 

As Reuters reports, China could have a new homegrown operating system by October…

Computer technology became an area of tension between China and the United States after a number of run-ins over cyber security. China is now looking to help its domestic industry catch up with imported systems such as Microsoft’s Windows and Google’s mobile operating system Android.

 

The operating system would first appear on desktop devices and later extend to smartphone and other mobile devices, Xinhua said, citing Ni Guangnan who heads an official OS development alliance established in March.

 

Ni’s comments were originally reported by the People’s Post and Telecommunications News, an official trade paper run by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT).

 

We hope to launch a Chinese-made desktop operating system by October supporting app stores,” Ni told the trade paper. Some Chinese OS already existed, but there was a large gap between China’s technology and that of developed countries, he added.

 

He said he hoped domestically built software would be able to replace desktop operating systems within one to two years and mobile operating systems within three to five years.

Of course this is no sudden decision as said in May China said that “governments and enterprises of a few
countries” are taking advantage of their monopoly status and
technological edge to collect sensitive information.

In May, China banned government use of Windows 8, Microsoft’s latest operating system, a blow to the U.S. technology firm’s business which raised fears China was moving to protect domestic firms. Microsoft is also under investigation for anti-trust violations.

In March last year, China said that Google had too much


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Local Paper Sums Up Jackson Hole Perfectly

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

There was something missing at this year’s Jackson Hole meeting of the world’s most ‘brilliant’ monetary minds – a stock market rally – and while VIX was slammed lower (by mysterious forces assuming that uncertainty must have fallen), even the local rag understood i) the context – Yellen did not even make the main headline in The Jackson Hole Daily (the ‘common folk’ preferring something far more – or less – trivial, like the weather); and ii) All she has done is raise uncertainty. We await the machines to manually read these headlines before the requisite trading actions are taken… It seems, as we noted before, the Fed’s magic is running out (for now).

 

 

*  *  *

Simply put, no one cares about Yellen except the 1%!

 

h/t @BCAppelbaum





CME Delays Futures Opens Due To “Glitch”; Update: To Reopen At 9:00 PM Central

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Update:

  • *CME GLOBEX RESUMES FUTURES TRADING AFTER TECHNICAL ISSUE

 

Looks like the machines want to run post-Yellen stops… to new record highs…

 

Perhaps someone needs to tell Treasury Futures it’s time to sell off and keep the dream alive…

 

Update:

  • CME GLOBEX MARKETS TO OPEN 9 P.M. IN CHICAGO
  • CME GLOBEX TO PRE-OPEN 8:30 PM CT, OPEN AT 9 PM CT: CME GROUP
  • CME: ALL DAY, SESSION ORDERS WITH AUG. 24 TRADE DATE CANCELLED

It appears – judging from FX markets this evening – that consensus on Jackson Hole is Yellen was more hawkish and Draghi & Kuroda more dovish than expected. The USD index is pushing on towards one-year highs as EUR is down 50 pips (not helped by a dovish FT article on deflation fears) to 11-month lows, and USDJPY broke to as high as 104.45 (weakest JPY in 7 months). In addition to this action, the CME confirms all Futures products will have a delayed opening due to technical issues with NO estimated opening time.

CME’s only statement… on GCC site…

  • *ALL CME GLOBEX MARKETS EXCEPT BURSA MALAYSIA HALTED, CME SAYS

 

Phone call to Chris Grams, press officer at CME, was not immediately returned

 

USDJPY at 7-month highs

 

EUR tumbling to 11-month lows…

 

Of course, there is no need for futures trading anymore since The Fed will merely extend its “communications” policy to announce the end of day print for the S&P 500 each morning going forward…

 

But for those wondering, EURJPY implies an S&P open around 7 points down… though we suspect USDJPY will be in charge and stocks are lifted.

 

Charts: Bloomberg





What’s $100 Really Worth In Each State?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Because average prices for similar goods are much higher in California or New York than in Mississippi or South Dakota, The Tax Foundation notes points out that the same amount of dollars will buy you comparatively less in the high-price states, or comparatively more in low-price states. Regional price differences are strikingly large, and have serious policy implications. The same amount of dollars are worth almost 40 percent more in Mississippi than in DC, and the differences become even larger if metro area prices are considered instead of statewide averages.

 

 

For example, Tennessee is a low-price state, where $100 will buy what would cost $110.25 in another state that is closer to the national average. You can think of this as meaning that Tennesseans are about ten percent richer than their nominal incomes suggest.

The states where $100 is worth the least are the District of Columbia ($84.60), Hawaii ($85.32), New York ($86.66), New Jersey ($87.64), and California ($88.57). That same money goes the furthest in Mississippi ($115.74), Arkansas ($114.16), Missouri ($113.51), Alabama (113.51), and South Dakota ($113.38).

A person who makes $40,000 a year after tax in Kentucky would need to have after-tax earnings of $53,000 in Washington, DC just in order to have an equal standard of living, let alone feel richer.

 

Source: The Tax Foundation





No More Broken Promises In One Cartoon

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Boots on the ground?

 

Source: Cagle Post

h/t Sunday Funnies





The Broken Links In The Fed’s Chain Of Cause & Effect

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Excerpted from John Hussman’s Weekly Market Comment,

The Federal Reserve’s prevailing view of the world seems to be that a) QE lowers interest rates, b) lower interest rates stimulate jobs and economic activity, c) the only risk from QE will be at the point when unemployment is low enough to trigger inflation, and d) the Fed can safely encourage years of yield-seeking speculation – of the same sort that produced the worst economic collapse since the Depression – on the belief that this time is different. From the foregoing discussion, it should be clear that this chain of cause and effect is a very mixed bag of fact and fiction.

To be fair, we do believe that some components of the Fed’s thinking are well-supported by economic evidence. For example, in her presentation at Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Janet Yellen observed that real wage inflation remains low, and that this is an indication of ongoing slack in the labor market that isn’t well-captured by the rate of unemployment. On this point, we would completely agree. To the extent that the true Phillips Curve (which relates unemployment to real wage inflation) describes reality, it’s sensible to assert that low real wage inflation informs us that the unemployment rate has not declined to a level that reflects labor market scarcity – though we should also recognize that real wage growth would already be much higher if there was not such an extreme gap between real wage growth and productivity growth.

Where we differ from Chair Yellen is in a variety of supposed cause-effect relationships that aren’t supported by evidence to any meaningful extent, and in the neglect of systemic risks that are undeniable if one has been paying any attention at all to the macroeconomy over the past 15 years.

Let’s trace some of the links in the chain of cause and effect.

First it’s clear that increasing the monetary base relative to nominal GDP will predictably and reliably lower short-term interest rates. This is true at least until the point that, as has occurred across history and across countries, inflation picks up rather uncontrollably – often following a supply shock coupled with government deficit spending – with very little at all to do with the prevailing unemployment rate.


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Oil After US Hegemony

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Via BofAML's Global Commodity Research team,

Oil after US hegemony

Volatility of global oil output has fallen to historic lows…

We recently discussed how a confluence of factors had pushed oil price volatility down in recent years (see “OPEC discord and oil stability”). Macro drivers such as massive monetary easing have helped, but a collapse in global oil production fluctuations to historic lows has been perhaps the key micro dampener of oil price volatility (Chart 2). The elimination of individual OPEC country quotas has led to increased operating flexibility for Saudi, Kuwait, and UEA. This shift has resulted in higher output swings at an individual OPEC country level, but lower vol for the cartel as a whole (Chart 3). In our view, the three swing suppliers have enough operational and financial bandwidth to keep going, and we have previously stated that Brent prices will not fall for long below $100/bbl unless Saudi wants them to.

…even though individual country disruptions skyrocketed

What are the limits of this operating bandwidth should geopolitics worsen? With Saudi theoretical spare capacity at 2.4 million b/d, the scope to accommodate the next major geopolitical event may be limited. In fact, supply disruptions are already at a very high point, as noted in our analysis of OPEC production volatility. Libya and Iran combined add up to 2.2 million b/d of oil supply lost, but many other countries have also failed to increased supply as expected (Chart 4). When looking at supply disruptions historically, we find that we are currently at the highest level since March and before that since the Gulf War of the early 90s (Chart 4). If we dig further and break down this data into violence and nonviolence related oil supply disruptions, we can clearly see how armed conflict has become a major driver of global oil output swings (Chart 5).

Geopolitical energy risk has risen a lot in recent years

From Arab Spring-related uprisings in Libya or Egypt, to a civil war in Syria and now violence in Iraq and the Ukraine, geopolitical tensions have been on the rise across many key energy production and transit countries (Chart 6). This increase in violent conflict has religious, ethnic, cultural, political, or economic roots, among others. Even climate change and the fight for increasingly scarce resources…
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CME Delays Futures Opens Due To “Glitch”, USD Jumps On EUR, JPY Weakness

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

It appears – judging from FX markets this evening – that consensus on Jackson Hole is Yellen was more hawkish and Draghi & Kuroda more dovish than expected. The USD index is pushing on towards one-year highs as EUR is down 50 pips (not helped by a dovish FT article on deflation fears) to 11-month lows, and USDJPY broke to as high as 104.45 (weakest JPY in 7 months). In addition to this action, the CME confirms all Futures products will have a delayed opening due to technical issues with NO estimated opening time.

CME’s only statement… on GCC site…

  • *ALL CME GLOBEX MARKETS EXCEPT BURSA MALAYSIA HALTED, CME SAYS

 

Phone call to Chris Grams, press officer at CME, was not immediately returned

 

USDJPY at 7-month highs

 

EUR tumbling to 11-month lows…

 

Of course, there is no need for futures trading anymore since The Fed will merely extend its “communications” policy to announce the end of day print for the S&P 500 each morning going forward…

 

But for those wondering, EURJPY implies an S&P open around 7 points down…

 

Charts: Bloomberg





The Fed Will Raise Rates in March 2015

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by EconMatters.

By EconMatters

 

 

 

March or June?

 

The big question for financial markets is whether the Fed will raise rates in March or June, it used to be Whether it would be June or September of 2015, and I think as the data gets better in the second half of the year, and QE ends in October, the timeline could be moved up even further, say January of 2015 for the first rate hike.

 


Data Dependent creates box for the Fed

 

For example, what happens to expectations if besides the consistent 200k plus employment reports each month we get a 350k number? What kind of pressure will this put on the Fed to move on rates, especially sense QE has ended in October? I think there is a distinct possibility over the next five months that we have a 350k plus employment report, and the Fed line about changing data and data dependent comes into play. In this case they set the bar for moving sooner or later, and the bar would be surpassed with a 350k employment report. 

 


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Zero Hedge

Enemy Of The People?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Via The Zman blog,

There has never been a time when normal people did not know the media was biased and biased in a predictable direction. For every non-liberal in the media, there were at least ten liberals. The ratio was probably higher, but then, as now, some lefties liked to pretend they were independents or some third option.

The media used to invest a lot of time denying they had a bias and an agenda, but the only people who believed them were on the Left, which had the odd effect of confirming they had a bias and an agenda.

...



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Phil's Favorites

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

 

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

Courtesy of 

Shout to Leigh!

On the new Talk Your Book – Josh Brown is joined by Leigh Drogen of Estimize, one of the leading providers of crowdsourced financial and economic data to talk about the trend in corporate profits that could potentially lead to an earnings recession later this year.

What is the thing that Leigh is seeing in the data that Wall Street isn’t yet picking up on? What segment of the stock market is most at risk? Why is the crowd smarter than the narrow consensus of Wall Street analysts?

Check out Estimize ...



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ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold & Silver Testing Important Breakout Levels!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Gold and Silver from a long-term perspective have created a series of lower highs over the past 8-years. Will 2019 bring a change to this trend? A big test is in play!

Gold since the lows in 2016 has created a series of higher lows, while Silver may have created a double bottom.

Gold & Silver are currently facing break attempts a (1) and (2). These falling resistance lines have disappointed metals bulls for the past few years.

The direction of Gold and Silver weeks and months from now should be highly influenced by what each does as they are attempting to break above important resistance levels.

To become a member of Kimbl...



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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Russia Prepares To Buy Up To $10 Billion In Bitcoin To Evade US Sanctions

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

While the market has been increasingly focused on the rising headwinds in the global economy in general, and China's economic slowdown in particular, while the media is obsessing over daily revelations that Trump may or may not have colluded with Russia to get elected, a far more critical, if underreported, shift has been taking place over the past year.

As we reported in June, whether due to concerns over draconian western sanctions and asset confiscations following the poisoning of former Russian military officer Sergei Skripal, or simply because it wanted to diversify away from the dollar, Russia liquidated virtually all of its Treasury holdings in the late spri...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's failure based on his personality, which was evident years ago. This article, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump became president, in July, 2016, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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