Archive for 2014

Top Russia Expert: Ukraine Joining Nato Would Provoke Nuclear War

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by George Washington.

Stephen Cohen is one of America’s top experts on Russia.  Cohen is professor emeritus of Russian studies and politics at New York University and Princeton University, and the author of a number of books on Russia and the Soviet Union.

Cohen says that the West is mainly to blame for the crisis in Ukraine:

This is a horrific, tragic, completely unnecessary war in eastern Ukraine. In my own judgment, we have contributed mightily to this tragedy. I would say that historians one day will look back and say that America has blood on its hands. Three thousand people have died, most of them civilians who couldn’t move quickly. That’s women with small children, older women. A million refugees.

Cohen joins other American experts on Russia – such as former U.S. ambassador to the Soviet Union, Jack Matlock – in this assessment.

Cohen also says that if Ukraine joins NATO, it will lead to nuclear war:

[Interviewer:] The possibility of Ukraine in NATO and what that means and what—

 

STEPHEN COHEN: Nuclear war.

 

[Interviewer:] Explain.

 

STEPHEN COHEN: Next question. I mean, it’s clear. It’s clear. First of all, by NATO’s own rules, Ukraine cannot join NATO, a country that does not control its own territory. In this case, Kiev controls less and less by the day. It’s lost Crimea. It’s losing the Donbas—I just described why—to the war. A country that does not control its own territory cannot join Ukraine [sic]. Those are the rules.

 

[Interviewer:] Cannot join—

 

STEPHEN COHEN: I mean, NATO. Secondly, you have to meet certain economic, political and military criteria to join NATO.

Ukraine meets none of them. Thirdly, and most importantly, Ukraine is linked to Russia not only in terms of being Russia’s essential security zone, but it’s linked conjugally, so to speak, intermarriage. There are millions, if not tens of millions, of Russian and Ukrainians married together. Put it in NATO, and you’re going to put a barricade through millions of families. Russia will react militarily.

 

In fact, Russia is already reacting militarily, because look what they’re doing in Wales today. They’re going to create a so-called rapid deployment


continue reading





Swing trading portfolio – week of September 8th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.</p></body></html>

 





The Lesser Depression: How Bubble Finance Has Deformed The Jobs Cycle

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Alhambra Partners' Jeffrey Snider via Contra Corner blog,

If you limited yourself to only the official unemployment rate the picture you get of the economy is seemingly one that fits very much inside historical expectations. The rate rose and fell just like it “should” in a recession/recovery cycle. That raises the question about why this period has been so divergent with past expectations. When even the Federal Reserve looks to something other than the unemployment rate (though of equally dubious features and deficiencies) to gain some insight into the economy’s actual station you know that traditional correlations have broken in some broad fashion.

There is a relatively clear demarcation between those times when the unemployment rate was highly correlated to other indications of economic activity and the period when its status seems to be more in doubt. This “recovery” has certainly been the most evocative of discussion and doubt, but that really extends backward to the prior two. While the “recovery” after the dot-com recession created the term “jobless recovery” it can also be seen in the cycle ten years before.

The term “jobless recovery” is itself an oxymoron since the main function of any economic advance is to broaden participation. Thus a “jobless recovery” is nothing of the sort, indicating more so the re-arranging of numbers rather than full achievement – the hallmarks of redistribution.

ABOOK Sept 2014 Payrolls Unemployment to LF

Measuring from “peak” unemployment forward, there is again a clear difference between the recovery after the deep recession in 1981-82 and those that have come after. Even in the early 1990’s, the labor force was obviously changing as the number of new potential entrants to the jobs market began to shift more toward staying out. Yet, there were still enough payroll gains to attract significant growth in the labor force (undisturbed by changes in population and demographics).

The Great Recession “recovery”, or “Lesser Depression”, has seen something altogether worse. Where the track of the unemployment rate appears very much normal, it has almost nothing to do with a healthy economy. In fact, in this instance, the unemployment is actually the primary indication of all that is wrong!

Structurally, even orthodox Keynesians have come around to actually identifying another clear demarcation in function. As Paul Krugman noted in his affable affirmation of…
continue reading





Shinzo Abe’s Six Most Worrisome Charts

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

It is not hard to find an exemplary chart of the collapse of the Japanese economy – as we have been diligently exposing for the past few years despite Abenomics' promises (tonight's especially). Even Japanese government advisors are concerned:

"My biggest concern is that most of the emphasis has been on solving the short-to-medium term challenges of overcoming deflation and boosting demand. While I think that emphasis has been the right approach, most Japanese economic problems really revolve around long-term issues: an aging and declining population, a need to increase our potential growth rate, and longer-term fiscal consolidation. Whether or not the government can overcome these challenges is still very much an unknown."

 

Motoshige Itoh, professor at the University of Tokyo Graduate School of Economics and a member of the Cabinet Office’s Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy

These six charts suggest not only does Japan have a long way to go, but the trend is very much not their friend…

 

Source: Goldman Sachs

*  *  *

Goldman has a little more color on tonight's disaster too…

We expect sluggish recovery momentum: We estimate the drop-off from pre-tax-hike rush demand will gradually fade through Jul-Sep.

 

However, we watch for the possibility that the decline in real disposable income and large increase in inventories may continue to have a negative impact on domestic demand that deals a body blow to the economy for a comparatively long time.

 

We think unfavorable summer weather is also a negative catalyst.





NATO & 21st Century War-Time Currency Counterfeiting

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Martin Armstrong via Armstrong Economics,

The justification for war has been escalated where NATO now considers it legitimate to respond to a large-scale cyber attack on a Member State with military force.

This position has been the decision of the 28 Heads of State and Government at the NATO meeting regarding its new proclaimed jurisdiction with respect to cyberspace.

The focus is taking the position that an attack on the computer network can cripple critical infrastructure such as power plants, banks or governments, without any actual military invasion.

UK-Nazi-5Pound[2

The argument has been the threat of a massive cyber-attack upon the international financial markets that would cripple the international capital flows placing the economy at risk. Such a danger is actually the modern version of counterfeiting an adversary’s currency to disrupt its economy by undermining the currency thereby creating inflation and economic war.

Attacking an opponent’s economy has been a strategic part of warfare for centuries as this German counterfeit of a British 5 pound note illustrates.

Continental$60-1779

The British attempted to weaken the public trust during the American Revolution attacking the Continental Currency with propaganda and penalties of their own. In order to devalue and destabilize the currency of the Colonies, they also engaged in economic warfare by means of extensive counterfeiting.

Counterfeit-Detector

 

Benjamin Franklin developed using nature to secure the currency by using leaves that were unique. Regarding the British-sponsored counterfeits, Franklin said:

“Paper money was in those times our universal currency. But, it being the instrument with which we combated our enemies, they resolved to deprive us of its use by depreciating it; and the most effectual means they could contrive was to counterfeit it. The artists they employed performed so well, that immense quantities of these counterfeits, which issued from the British government in New York, were circulated among the inhabitants of all the States, before the fraud was detected. This operated considerably in depreciating the whole mass, first, by the vast additional quantity, and next by the uncertainty in distinguishing the true from the false; and the depreciation was a loss to all and the ruin of many.”

Circulating contemporary counterfeits today are typically collected alongside the genuine examples and, in some cases,…
continue reading





OMGodzilla! Japanese Macro Data Revisions Even More Disastrous Than Expected

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

If the US equity market's reaction to the worst jobs data of 2014 is anything to go on; Japanese stocks should be a double overnight given the catastrophe that just printed. While the initial prints for the post-tax-hike period were bad enough (record worst levels in most cases), the revsions are even worse. Drum roll please: 1) Trade balance miss, worst in 4 months; 2) GDP -7.1% miss, revised down, worst since Q1 2009; 3) Business Spending/Capex -5.1% miss, revised down, worst since Q2 2009; and 4) Consumer Spending -5.3% miss, revised down, worst on record. But apart from that, as the Japanese leaders noted last week, "the recovery is heading in the right direction."

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

*  *  *

A gentle reminder why Abenomics will never work… (or the terrible missing J-Curve via Patrick Barron of the Ludwig von Mises Institute of Canada):

Perhaps I can shed some light on Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s missing J-curve; i.e., why Japan’s trade deficit seems to be increasing rather than decreasing after massive monetary intervention to reduce the purchasing power of the yen. Monetary debasement does NOT result in an economic recovery, because no nation can force another to pay for its recovery.

 

Monetary debasement transfers wealth within an economy by subsidizing exports at the expense of the entire economy, but this effect is delayed as the new money works it way from first receivers of the new money to later receivers. The BOJ gives more yen to buyers using dollars, euros, and other currencies, as the article states, but this is nothing more than a gift to foreigners that is funneled through exporters. Because exporters are the first receivers of the new money, they buy resources at existing prices and make large profits. As most have noted, exporters have seen a surge in their share prices, but this is exactly what one should expect when government taxes all to give to the few.

 

Eventually the monetary debasement raises all costs and this initial benefit to exporters vanishes. Then the country is left with a depleted capital base and a higher price level. What a great policy!

 

The good news is that Japan does know how to rebuild its economy. It


continue reading





Market reaction to the ECB announcement

Market reaction to the ECB announcement

Courtesy of SoberLook.com

The ECB rolled out the big guns today but stopped short of an all-out quantitative easing. In addition to the TLTRO, there will be ABS and mortgage bond purchases. However these markets are relatively small in Europe – particularly the higher rated paper that would qualify for the ECB purchases. 

The deposit rate on bank excess reserves was set to -20bp. With Germany continuing to resist full QE, Draghi’s best two options are to try stimulating consumer and business credit (via ABS purchases and TLTRO) as well as to push down the euro (via negative deposit rates). So we got a “bazooka lite”.

The euro took the biggest single-day hit in over two years in response to the decrease in deposit rate.

And the French 2-year government bond yield went negative for the first time.
 

But without the full QE in place, longer dated bond yields actually increased, as yield curves steepened. This carried over to the US where long-term yields rose as well. 

 

And by the way here is one reason Germany remains uneasy with an all-out QE program – 
 

Source: ECB

 

Sign up for Sober Look's daily newsletter called the Daily Shot.

 





US labor markets Q&A

US labor markets Q&A

Courtesy of SoberLook.com

The media is generating a great deal of noise around the US labor markets and it's worth going through some key facts, issues and trends. Let's do it in a Q&A format for clarity.

Q: What's the deal with Friday's unexpectedly poor payrolls report?

A: Friday’s payrolls report was clearly a disappointment – far below expectations. However some have attributed the weakness (at least in part) to notoriously unreliable August seasonal adjustments as well as to the New England’s Market Basket labor mess. If that’s indeed the case, we should see this reverse in September.

WSJ: – A management fight and worker revolt at a New England grocery store chain helped drag down U.S. payrolls during the month of August, the Labor Department said Friday. 

Though it’s not named in the closely watched jobs report, the company almost certainly is Tewksbury, Mass.-based Market Basket, a family-owned chain that operates 71 stores across Massachusetts and New Hampshire. 

The June dismissal of popular chief executive Arthur T. Demoulas, amid a long-running battle with his cousin Arthur S. Demoulas, led to weeks of turmoil as workers demanded his return, a battle covered in detail by the Boston Globe. At one point in August, thousands of part-time workers had their hours cut, some to zero.

Source: abqjournal.com

Q: How is the jobs recovery going on a longer time scale?

A: The current labor market recovery is the longest on record but clearly not the strongest. Given the latest trends in job openings (see chart), the labor markets improvements are likely to continue, albeit slower than in past recoveries. Under the circumstances that's a good outcome.
 

Source: @NickTimiraos @EricMorath

Q. What's going on with falling labor force participation?

A: US labor force participation for ages 25-54 has leveled off. This is the key index to watch for signs of stabilization in participation instead of the overall working-age population measure.

 

Q:…
continue reading





Which Is The Bigger Threat To The United States?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Presented with no comment…

 

 

Source: Investors.com





Guest Post: “We” Don’t Want The Ukraine Ceasefire To Hold

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer, via the Automatic Earth blog,

It’s exceedingly safe to assume that the main reason the Kiev government agreed to a ceasefire on Friday was that the Ukraine army was losing on just about all fronts. Which they blame on Russian troops and weaponry being involved in increasing numbers, but there’s still to this day no proof for that.

The ‘rebels’ suspect that Kiev will use the ceasefire only to regroup, send in more men and guns, and fortify its positions. Moreover, the same ‘rebels’, who in the western press are increasingly awarded the “pro-Russian” label, even though they have no intention of joining Russia, have accused Kiev of having already violated the ceasefire within hours of it being announced.

Does anyone truly believe the US/EU/NATO coalition, which has spent billions on their Ukraine regime change project, are going to leave it at this? That they’re willing to admit defeat and will now retreat to their original positions, minus East Ukraine? If so, please have a look at the Brooklyn Bridge I have up for sale on Ebay. It has an absolutely lovely weathered look, literally tons of patina, and a history to die for.

I still haven’t seen one single western journalist take an in-depth look at the role of Victoria Nuland, Geoffrey Pyatt and their EU accomplices. Nobody seems interested in what these people have done over the past years that led up to Yanukovych’ ouster in February, and the subsequent civil war Kiev unleashed upon its own people. Not one single western journalist. And it’s not as if there’s no story there.

Meanwhile, the demonization of Vladimir Putin by those same journalists continues unabated. I saw something pass by just now about a Ukrainian priest claiming Putin is obsessed by Satan, no less. That’s the sort of thing that is duly reported in the west. Not Victoria Nuland.

And western politicians too play the same grossly over the top game like they were born for it. US officials have announced they will ‘degrade’ Islamist State (Obama) and chase them into Hell where they belong (Joe Biden). That’s the kind of language that ‘earns’ them applause.

As if there’s nothing wrong with using the images of an American being decapitated for hollow political gain. As if honor has…
continue reading





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Americans' Economic Hope Has Collapsed

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Which came first, the confidence or the stock market rally?

One thing is for sure, the crash in stocks in December has crushed the hope of Americans that their economic future is going to be better under President Trump.

Overall confidence dipped to 58.1 - a 4-month low, but, U.S. consumers this month were the most downbeat on the economy since November 2016, a third straight drop after expectations reached a 16-year high just three months earlier, as the partial government shutdown wears on toward a fourth week.

...



more from Tyler

Kimble Charting Solutions

Triple Breakout Test In Play For S&P 500!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the rally of late about to run out of steam or is a major breakout about to take place in the S&P 500? What happens at current prices should go a long way in determining this question.

This chart looks at the equal weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) on a daily basis over the past 15-months.

The rally from the lows on Christmas Eve has RSP testing the top of a newly formed falling channel while testing the underneath side of the 2018 trading range and its falling 50-day moving average at (1).

At this time RPS is facing a triple resistance test. Wil...



more from Kimble C.S.

Phil's Favorites

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

 

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

Courtesy of Victoria Honeyman, University of Leeds

As the clock ticks down to March 29 2019, all of the political manoeuvring, negotiating, arguing and fighting is coming to a peak. In the two and a half years since the 2016 EU referendum, views on both sides have hardened and agreement still seems as far away as it was the day after the referendum.

With Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement disliked by all sides, and voted down by an unprecedented majority in the House of Commons, everyone is wondering what can and should be done next?

...



more from Ilene

Digital Currencies

Crypto-Bubble: Will Bitcoin Bottom In February Or Has It Already?

Courtesy of Michelle Jones via ValueWalk.com

The new year has been relatively good for the price of bitcoin after a spectacular collapse of the cryptocurrency bubble in 2018. It’s up notably since the middle of December and traded around the psychological level of $4,000... so is this a sign that the crypto market is about to recover?

Of course, it depends on who you ask, but one analyst discovered a pattern which might point to a bottom next month.

A year after the cryptocurrency bubble popped

CCN...



more from Bitcoin

ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



more from ValueWalk

Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



more from Chart School

Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



more from Our Members

Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>