Archive for 2014

Swing trading portfolio – week of September 29th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.</p></body></html>

 





Carmen Segarra: Wall Street’s Spy Vs Spy

Pam Martens writes about the Segarra Tapes released last week. These tapes show how the regulation of Wall Street is a complete failure, a farce, with only punishment waiting for those who speak out as Carmen Segarra did.

William D. Cohan noted that the Segarra Tapes didn't reveal much we didn't already know. Sadly, this is true. Carmen Segarra provided solid evidence to what we probably suspected anyway (Why the Fed Will Always Wimp Out on Goldman). However, solid evidence may mean something still. 

In spite of our jaded attitude that corruption at the "regulating authority" New York Fed is well-known, and won't be fixed, EVER (because that's how powerful the bankers and regulators are!), perhaps there is hope. The tapes contain clear-cut, understandable proof of conflicts, regulatory capture and self-dealing.

With some luck, the tapes could prompt a little public fury, further investigations (by entities other than the NY Fed…), greater oversight and some real reforms to our Wall Street managed banking system. As a start, Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown are calling for Senate Banking hearings on the conflicted dealings of the New York Fed.   

Carmen Segarra: Wall Street's Spy Vs Spy

Courtesy of Pam Martens

If you missed our coverage in 2012 of the Lower Manhattan Security Coordination Center where Wall Street sleuths from those serially charged firms like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan dunk donuts alongside New York’s finest in a $150 million spy center, keeping tabs on the comings and goings of their own Wall Street employees as well as innocent pedestrians, then you may not fully appreciate why Carmen Segarra has been celebrated all weekend for her temerity in taping her boss and colleagues at the New York Fed, as well as employees inside the cloistered bowels of Goldman Sachs.

While Wall Street was spying on everyone else in lower Manhattan in a high tech center funded by the taxpayer, Segarra strolled over to a Spy Store, plunked down a modest sum and walked out with a tiny tape recorder. She then proceeded to capture the essence of the


continue reading





Elephant in the Room Minsky Moment

Courtesy of Mish.

The "elephant in the room" is debt. Try as they might, central bankers have not been able to spur credit, hiring, or much business expansion because of the elephant. Things are even worse in Europe.

Via email, this is a guest post from Steen Jakobsen, chief economist of Saxo bank.

Debt – The Elephant in the Room

Interest on debt grows without rain’ – Yiddish proverb

This proverb explains most of what goes on in policy circles these days. We are now watching Extend-and-Pretend, Episode VI: Promises for improvement amid ever growing debt levels.

Short put, we’re still working with the same dog-eared script we were introduced to all of five years ago, when markets had stabilized in the wake of the financial crisis: maintain sufficiently low interest rates to service the debt burden. Pretend to have credible plan, but never address the structural problem and simply buy more time. But while we were able to get away with this theme for an awfully long time, the dynamic is now changing as the risk of low inflation (and even deflation) is a brick wall for the extend-and-pretend meme. Yes, interest does grow without rain, and the cost of maintaining and servicing debt grows especially fast in a deflationary regime.

Mads Koefoed, Saxo Bank’s macro economist projects US growth at around 2.0% for all of 2014. That will be the sixth year with US growth near 2.0% – so despite lower unemployment, despite a record high S&P500, the economy has a hard time escaping that 2.0% level. Any talk of higher interest rates is hard to take seriously when US growth is going nowhere and world growth is considerable weaker than expected in January or as recently as July, for that matter. It seems everyone has forgotten that even the US is a part of the global economy.

The fourth quarter is always the most politically interesting time of year. Countries need to get their new budgets in order. The EU, IMF and World Bank will need to pretend they agree or accept the weaker data, which has to mean bigger deficits. It’s a tiresome exercise to watch denial-in-action as EU governments and other policymakers try to


continue reading





“The Ingredients Of A Market Crash”: John Hussman Explains “Why Take The Concerns Of A Permabear Seriously”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Extracted from John Hussman’s The Ingredients of a Market Crash

Why take the concerns of a “permabear” seriously?

The inclination to ignore these concerns is understandable based on the fact that I’ve proved fallible in the half-cycle advance since 2009. That’s fine – my objective isn’t to convert anyone to our own investment discipline or encourage them to abandon their own. Somebody will have to hold equities through the completion of this cycle, and it’s best to include those who have thoughtfully chosen to accept the historical risks of a passive investment strategy, and those who have at least evaluated our concerns and dismissed them. The reality is that my reputation as a “permabear” is entirely an artifact of two specific elements since the 2009 low, but that miscasting may not become completely clear until we observe a material retreat in valuations coupled with an early improvement in market internals.

For those who understand and appreciate our work, I discuss these two elements frequently because a) I think it’s important to be open about those challenges and to detail how we’ve addressed them, and b) it’s becoming urgent to clarify why we view present conditions as extraordinarily hostile, and to distinguish these conditions from others that – despite an increasingly overvalued market – our current methods would have embraced or at least tolerated more than we demonstrated in real-time.

For us, the half-cycle since 2009 has involved the resolution of two challenges.

The first: despite anticipating the 2007-2009 collapse, the timing of my decision to stress-test our methods against Depression-era data – and to make our methods robust to those outcomes – could hardly have been worse. In the interim of that “two data sets” uncertainty, we missed what in hindsight was the best opportunity in this cycle to respond to a material retreat in valuations coupled with early improvement in market internals (a constructive opportunity that we eagerly embraced in prior market cycles, and attempted to embrace in late-2008 after a 40% market plunge).

The second: I underestimated the extent to which yield-seeking speculation in response to quantitative easing would so persistently defer a key historical regularity: that extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish market conditions typically end with tragic market losses. Those extremes have now been stretched,…
continue reading





“Do we need to fire Pimco?”

“Do we need to fire Pimco?”

bw coverCourtesy of 

This weekend, thousands of institutional investors, financial advisors and wealth managers are faced with one of the most uncomfortable questions imaginable:

Do we need to fire Pimco? 

Pimco’s flagship fund, Total Return, can be found in allocations everywhere. From pensions to endowments, from 401(k) sponsors to retirement plans, in the accounts of private investors and insurance companies, wirehouse FAs, bank branch brokers, RIAs – Total Return is ubiquitous. It’s got one of the only mutual fund ticker symbols that brokers call out as though it were a stock, as in “Why don’t you just buy the guy some P-Tax”, a shorthand for PTTAX, the call letters of the fund’s A class shares. As the second largest bond fund on earth and largest active one, it’s also extraordinarily widely held, and this is why the news of Bill Gross leaving the firm (or being pushed out) is such a huge story for the industry.

How did Pimco Total Return get so entrenched in the first place?

Our story begins, as it often will, with an amazing track record of outperformance. Put simply, whatever Pimco was doing, for a long time, was working. A potent mixture of market-beating returns, marketing savvy, intellectual leadership for the industry and outsized personality fostered a devotion to the firm and its best-known product. The cult of personality surrounding Bill Gross is unlike anything we’ve seen in this industry since the heydays of Peter Lynch and Bill Miller. The bond fund and its manager have been sold to clients with impunity for two decades. Pimco Total Return has become the IBM of mutual funds, in that “No one ever gets fired” for recommending it.

This reliance on Pimco on the part of asset allocators worked very well for years, and, as a result, it became a standard inclusion into portfolios around the world. The regular investor letters and commentaries from Mr. Gross kept professionals up to date with their designated manager’s ongoing take on the markets and the economy. The ubiquity of Mr. Gross in the media was reassuring for the retail investor and more casual shareholders who were invested through a retirement account somewhere.


continue reading





Eric Cartman’s Startup: The 4 Point Plan

Eric Cartman’s Startup: The 4 Point Plan

Courtesy of 

This week’s season premier of South Park was note perfect – weaving together a narrative involving ISIS, the Washington Redskins, Kickstarter and the excesses of a venture-backed economy where funding is the endpoint rather than the start of a business, Matt and Trey absolutely crush it once again.

Below, Eric Cartman lays out his 4 point plan for his fellow entrepreneurs, who seek to kickstart a company that will allow them to do absolutely nothing, in style.

cartman

The full episode is can be seen at the link below!

Go Fund Yourself  (South Park Studios)





“I Am Putting Everything In Goldman Sachs Because These Guys Can Do Whatever The Hell They Want”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

When we first covered the Carmen Segarra lawsuit alleging the capture of the NY Fed by Goldman Sachs back in October 2013, we didn’t have much hope for justice to get done. We said that “while her allegations may be non-definitive, and her wrongful termination suit is ultimately dropped, there is hope this opens up an inquiry into the close relationship between Goldman and the NY Fed. Alas, since the judicial branch is also under the control of the two abovementioned entities, we very much doubt it.”

Sure enough, the lawsuit was dropped (and no inquiry was opened) but not before it became clear that the very judge in charge of the case, U.S. District Judge Ronnie Abrams, was herself conflicted, after it was revealed that her husband, Greg Andres, a partner at Davis Polk & Wardwell, was representing Goldman in an advisory capacity. Curiously, before she assumed her current office in March 2013, back in 2008 Abrams returned to Davis Polk herself as Special Counsel for Pro Bono. She had previously worked at the firm from 1994 to 1998. For the full, and quite amazing, story of how the “Judge” steamrolled Segarra’s objections reads this Reuters piece.

As a result of this fiasco, some wondered just how far do Goldman’s tentacles stretch not only at the money-printing (i.e., NY Fed) level, not only at the legislative level (see “With Cantor Down, Which Other Politicians Has Goldman Invested In?”), but at the judicial as well.

And then, on Friday, the Segarra case against the Federal Reserve branch of Goldman Sachs got a second wind, when as a result of another disclosure, ProPublica revealed “How Goldman Controls The New York Fed in 47.5 Hours Of “The Secret Goldman Sachs Tapes.” That is to say, nothing new was revealed per se, because as anyone who has read this website for the past 6 years knows just how vast Goldman’s network is not only at the Fed, but in that all important other continent too, Europe.

Sadly, just like a year ago, so this time too, we are reluctant to say anything will change. In fact, there is too much at stake, for Goldman to drop the reins and disassociate from the NY Fed: for pete’s sake, the
continue reading





Why the Fed Will Always Wimp Out on Goldman

William D. Cohan notes that the Segarra Tapes didn't reveal much we didn't already know. Sadly, this is true. Carmen Segarra provided proof to what we probably suspected anyway, but she didn't likely surprise anyone. ~ Ilene 

Why the Fed Will Always Wimp Out on Goldman 

By William D. Cohan, POLITICO Magazine

Excerpt:

The sudden appearance of Segarra’s tape recordings in the news this week was reminiscent of the way that the NFL was embarrassed by the videotape that showed Rice, the now-suspended Baltimore Ravens running back, knocking out his girlfriend in an elevator – all of which suggested the NFL knew about the abuse but gave Rice kid-gloves treatment, as it does in many cases of abuse. The truth is, although both incidents do reveal something about the way the powerful and famous get away with more stuff than the rest of us, there’s no real comparison. The Segarra Tapes actually reveal little or nothing that was not already known, assuming you have a shred of understanding how the Federal Reserve banks actually work. Nor is William Dudley, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, about to get pilloried in public like NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell.

Sorry, folks, but this is simply the way the New York Fed was designed to behave. The system of 12 Federal Reserve banks, established about 100 years ago by an act of Congress following secret meetings presided over by J.P. Morgan himself at an island off the coast of Georgia, has always existed for the benefit of the commercial and investment banks that created the system, that own the banks and that control their boards of directors. To think that these banks exist for any other reason than to serve their Wall Street masters is complete folly. It has never been so and it will never be so – as long as the current system remains intact – despite what Segarra captured her bosses talking about on tape, without their knowledge.

Full article: Why the Fed Will Always Wimp Out on Goldman – William D. Cohan – POLITICO Magazine.

William D. Cohan is the author of Money and Power: How Goldman Sachs Came to Rule the World (2011).

Picture by William Banzai 7. 
 





“The Information War For Ukraine”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

When one of the most watched German channels – south German state TV channel ZDF – releases an 8+ minute satirical spoof of all the fabricated “news” surrounding the Ukraine “ïnvasion” by Russia and all the associated newsflow from the region (in which “any similarity to the current news is unintended and accidental, but absolutely inevitable“), you know that the time has come to double down on the propaganda effort because if ground zero of media indoctrination, Germany, is starting to see through the fog of endless media BS, then how long until the rest of the world follows?

Make sure to activate the English subtitles when watching the following clip.





The Bells Are Ringing… Are You Listening?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Phoenix Capital Research.

There is a saying that you don’t ring bells at the top.

 

It’s not really true. Every time the market forms a major peak, at least in the last 15 years, there are usually a preponderance of signs of excessive speculation and leverage.

 

Today we are seeing bells ringing throughout the markets.

 

For instance, today, we have:

 

1)   Corporate debt is at 2007 peak levels.

2)   Investor bullishness is at extremes not seen since the 2007 top.

3)   Margin debt (money borrowed to buy stocks) is closing in on its record high.

4)   Over 70% of household net worth is based in financial assets. As ZH has noted previously, every time this has happened historically, asset prices have crashed soon after.

5)   The Bank of International Settlements and the IMF have both warned of excessive risk taking and market fragility.

6)   Market volume is at an absolute trickle, with most volume coming from HFT firms.

 

Aside from this, we have countless examples of the “smart money” preparing:

 

1)   Billionaires are sitting on record amounts of cash.

2)   Warren Buffett is sitting on over $50 billion in cash.

3)   George Soros has taken out a record put position to profit from a market collapse.

4)   Carl Icahn has warned of a “big drop” coming in stocks.

5)   Jeremy Grantham has commented that we are in a “fully-fledged equity bubble.”

6)   Corporate insiders are selling stock at a pace not seen since 2000.

7)   Financial institutions as well as hedge funds have been net sellers of stocks since 2014 began.

 

There are literally bells everywhere today. Does this mean that the market will take a nosedive this week? Not necessarily. Tops can take much longer to form that anyone expects.

 

However, there are clear signs of excessive speculation, leverage, and the like. And the smart money is heading for the exits.

 

Are you?

 

This concludes this article. If you’re looking for the means of protecting yourself from what’s coming, you can pick up a FREE investment report titled Protect Your Portfolio at http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/special-reports.html.

 

This report outlines a number of strategies you can implement to prepare yourself and your loved ones from the coming market carnage.

 

Best Regards

 

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

 

 





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018.

By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS, although on many months the (balance sheet) B/S does not actually shrink by this full amount which depends on the redemption schedule) and by end-Q4 markets also experienced some of the largest volatility and drawdowns in nearly a decade.

As Nomura&...



more from Ilene

ValueWalk

The Competition For Capital Has Made Stocks Cheap

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The new year is upon us, and now is the time many investors look at what 2018 was and prepare for what 2019 might be. Recession jitters are starting to pick back up again, especially now that the full picture of 2018 is in the books. But what if you could pick only one theme for 2018? Jefferies strategist Sean Darby and team have a suggestion which is especially timely given that it appears to mark the end of an era.

StockSnap / PixabayVolatility carries into the new year

This past year was one of extremes, and the markets ended i...



more from ValueWalk

Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



more from Kimble C.S.

Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



more from Bitcoin

Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



more from Chart School

Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



more from Our Members

Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>