Archive for 2014

Is The US Making The Same Mistakes As Zimbabwe?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Patrick Barron via Mises Canada,

I have started reading a new book about the collapse of the Zimbabwean dollar–When Money Destroys Nations, by Philip Haslam and Russell Lamberti.

One of the main causes of the hyperinflation was the decision of the Zimbabwean government to give army veterans of its recent wars a big bonus. The promise was too much for the Zimbabwean economy to manage, so the government printed money… and lots of it.

Why is this relevant? Well, look at America.

We have been fighting wars around the world for twenty-five years and recently promised universal healthcare to all citizens. The baby boom generation is retiring and will draw unfunded Social Security and Medicare benefits in ever larger amounts.

There is  no way that these promises can be funded by the American economy. We will print money, too, just like the Zimbabweans.

The Zimbabwean economy went into hyperinflation, because the Zim dollar was not held as a reserve anywhere in the world.

The US hyperinflation may be delayed, because our money printing is being sopped up by foolish central banks worldwide in order to reward their export industries.

In a non-manipulated currency market, the US would have to fund its budget with honest debt and repay it with honest money.

But the chickens eventually will come home to roost for the US, just as they did for the poor Zimbabweans. The political pressure to print money is the same everywhere as are the laws of economic science.





Air Strikes on Isis Not Working; What’s Next?

Courtesy of Mish.

Isis fighters are closing in on the city of Kobani near the Turkish border. ISIS evades air strikes simply by scattering when planes approach.

The Guardian reports Air Strikes Against Isis are not Working, say Syrian Kurds.

US-led air strikes in northern Syria have failed to interrupt the advance of Islamic State (Isis) fighters closing in on a key city on the Turkish border, raising questions about the western strategy for defeating the jihadi movement.

Almost two weeks after the Pentagon extended its aerial campaign from Iraq to neighbouring Syria in an attempt to take on Isis militants in their desert strongholds, Kurdish fighters said the bombing campaign was having little impact in driving them back.

Isis units have edged to within two kilometres of the centre of Kobani, according to Kurds fighting a rearguard action inside the city. The jihadis, who this weekend generated further outrage with the murder of the British hostage Alan Henning, are simply too numerous to be cowed by the air assault by US fighter jets, the Kurds say.

“Air strikes alone are really not enough to defeat Isis in Kobani,” said Idris Nassan, a senior spokesman for the Kurdish fighters desperately trying to defend the important strategic redoubt from the advancing militants. “They are besieging the city on three sides, and fighter jets simply cannot hit each and every Isis fighter on the ground.”

He said Isis had adapted its tactics to military strikes from the air. “Each time a jet approaches, they leave their open positions, they scatter and hide. What we really need is ground support. We need heavy weapons and ammunition in order to fend them off and defeat them.”

What’s Next?

Most likely the US will drop more and more bombs, with 20% of the bombs finding the right targets, 40% the wrong targets, and the remaining 40% doing nothing. This will be labeled as a “success”.

However, many so-called moderates will get fed up with US action and join ISIS.

Then, after another beheading or two, Obama will send in more ground troops and weapons, but purportedly only for training and aiding moderates who will take the weapons and training in directions contrary to the stated intentions.

My Take

The US and UK  should issue


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TEPCO Prepares Countermeasures As Typhoon Tidal Waves Approach Fukushima

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

UDPATE:

  • *JMA ISSUES TORNADO WARNINGS IN TOKYO AREA, IZU ISLANDS
  • *TYPHOON PHANFONE MAKES LANDFALL AT JAPAN’S SHIZUOKA, JMA SAYS
  • *ANA CANCELS 261 DOMESTIC FLIGHTS DUE TO TYPHOON
  • *ANA SAYS 36,600 PASSENGERS AFFECTED BY FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS
  • *TOYOTA SUSPENDS DAY SHIFT AT 12 PLANTS IN JAPAN ON TYPHOON
  • *HONDA DELAYS START OF SUZUKA, HAMAMATSU PLANTS OPS. TODAY

 

 

With 1 US airman dead and 2 missing, Super Typhoon Phanfone has already wreaked havoc in its doom-strewn approach of Japan, but as RIA reports, the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), has revealed that the approaching typhoon could hit the damaged, decommissioned 40-year old nuclear power facility at Fukushima. Rather stunningly, The Japan Times reports tidal waves from the storm are likely to reach a maximum height of 26.3 meters or more (compared to the 2011 tsunami which reached a height of 15.5 meters when it hit the plant). Due to the expected ‘mingling’ of contaminated and Typhoon-driven ocean water, TEPCO admits 100 trillion becquerels of cesium to escape; Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) plans to verify the accuracy of TEPCO’s estimate and the “appropriateness” of countermeasures being taken.

 

The Super-Typhoon is already deadly…

A powerful typhoon was heading toward Tokyo on Sunday after lashing southern Japan, where it killed at least one U.S. airman on Okinawa island and left two others missing, officials said.

 

Typhoon Phanfone was off the coast of Shikoku in southwestern Japan on Sunday night, packing winds of up to 144 kilometers (90 miles) per hour after hitting the southern regions of Okinawa and Kyushu, Japan’s Meteorological Agency said.

 

Three U.S. Air Force members were washed away by high waves Sunday, with one found dead and the other two still missing, Japan’s coast guard said. Tsuguyoshi Miyagi, an official at the coast guard’s Okinawa branch, said the airmen were on the island’s northern coast.

 

The U.S. Air Force confirmed that three of its airmen were washed out to sea and that one had died. It said the search for the other


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Gold Slides Near 4-Year-Low In Early Asia Trading

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Same old, same old. Treasury yields are lower (futures prices higher); USDJPY (and thus S&P futures) are higher (though 110.00 is once again offering notable resistance); and gold is getting 'handled' lower. The divergence between stocks and bonds from Friday's jobs number is holding for now but it is gold that has been smacked to $1183 – near a four-year low: $1180.50 6/28/13, then back to Aug 2010). Silver is down 1% to March 2010 lows. Despite US equity exuberance, Asia-Pac stocks (ex-Japan) are down 0.3%.

 

Stocks and bonds remain divergent from Friday's jobs print

 

JPY started to break…

 

As a reminder, this is what happened last Friday into Sunday night's open…

 

Gold has been punched lower once again near 4-year lows…

 

But futures volume is negligible compared to the payrolls dump…

 

*SPOT SILVER DROPS 1% TO $16.6825/OZ, LOWEST SINCE MARCH 2010

 

And Bitcoin collapsed to as low as $275 overnight…

 

Charts: Bloomberg





Game Over Abenomics: “This Week Japan Will Acknowledge It Is In Recession”, Goldman Reveals

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

We have been waiting for this particular bolded sentence ever since we predicted it would take place back in December 2012 when a bunch of Keynesians, a disgraced former/current prime minister with a diarrhea problem and, of course, the Goldman Sachs’ corner suite, first unleashed Abenomics.

From Goldman’s Naohiko Baba, previewing this week’s key Japanese economic events

The Cabinet Office makes an assessment of the state of the economy based on the trend in the coincident CI, using a set of objective criteria. The August coincident CI is set to print negative mom. In this case, the Cabinet Office’s economic assessment will likely shift downward to “signaling a possible turning point” from the current level of “weakening”. According to the Cabinet Office, such a change in assessment provisionally indicates a likelihood that the economy has already fallen into recession. This is effectively akin to the government acknowledging that the economy is in recession.

And because every Keynesian lunacy has to end some time, RIP Abenomics: December 2012 – October 2014.





War! What Is It Good For? (Hint: These 4 Companies)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As GreenLeft.org’s Peter Boyle explains, it is a sadly familiar story: More death, pain and terror for the many translates into large profits for giant weapons making corporations.

h/t @NineInchBlade

 

Led by Lockheed Martin, the biggest US defence companies are trading at record prices as shareholders reap rewards from escalating military conflicts around the world.

Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Chicago-based BMO Private Bank, told Bloomberg: “As we ramp up our military muscle in the Mideast, there’s a sense that demand for military equipment and weaponry will likely rise… To the extent we can shift away from relying on troops and rely more heavily on equipment – that could present an opportunity.”

More money for the war profiteers – never mind the terrible human toll.

Remote “precision” airstrikes – such as the US and its allies – including Australia, are carrying out in Iraq and Syria today, have a record of inflicting huge civilian casualties as so-called “collateral damage”.

Marc Herold, a professor of economic development at the University of New Hampshire, did a comparative study of civilian victims of the West’s war on Afghanistan. He said: “From 2006 to mid-2008, US/NATO aerial attacks killed 1,488 Afghan civilians with 1,458 tonnes of bombs, whereas between October 7 and December 10, 2001 US war planes dropped 14,000 tonnes of bombs resulting in 2,569-2,949 dead Afghan civilians (or 18-21 civilians killed per 100 tonnes of US bombs),” the Guardian reported in 2008.

The relative lethality for Afghan civilians (measured by the ratio of civilians killed per 100 tonnes of bombs) of NATO’s close air support strikes far exceeds the lethality of the US strategic bombing of Laos and Cambodia, Herold calculated. And the lethality of US airstrikes in Afghanistan between 2006-2008 exceeded by far that recorded in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Yugoslavia, Iraq in 2003 and Afghanistan in 2001.

For all its deathly toll, has US/NATO bombing in Afghanistan put an end to “terrorism” in that war-devastated country? No.

But that does not concern those who protect the wealth of the super-rich. War is good for profits.

The Bloomberg’s share index for the four largest Pentagon contractors rose 19% this year, outstripping the 2.2% gain for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Industrials Index.

Bloomberg’s  Richard Clough reported that shares for Lockheed, the…
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Bitcoin Has Been Getting Obliterated

Joe has found a place for Bitcoins, and if you hold a lot of them, you won't like it.

Bitcoin Has Been Getting Obliterated

Courtesy of 

Remember Bitcoin?

There's not much to say about it, except that it's doing TERRIBLY.

Here's a chart going back to earlier this summer. Charts don't get uglier than this.

Screen Shot 2014 10 05 at 6.40.42 PM

Bitcoinwisdom

Interestingly, the Bitcoin industry continues to be quite excited about the prospects for the digital currency, and there continue to be announcements about expanding its potential usage. But for now: toilet.

*****

Here's a clearer 3 month chart from Coindesk:

Click here to see other time-frames. 





Silver extremes say look at me

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

silver-extremes-say-look-at-meSilver is wearing its little white bikini, saying look at me, so look!

1) Open interest is very high for a low price. Someone is not selling, but hoarding, positions. For open interest to do this only a very large account(s) can stomach the losses. Coud this be China’s COMEX silver future account? Hmmm!

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Silver1

Extrend positions with very little price action gain (well so far), rubber bands do snap back!

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Silver2

A reminder gold silver ratio.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Silver3

And a RTT Tv video on the Wyckoff logic..

This is where profits start, near the extreme bottom.

Every one who has debt should have 1% to 10% of physical metals to offset a very likely derivative mistake. After all there are $700 trillion USD dollars of derivates (IN USD)! 1% mistake is a $700 bn write down! Enough to destroy a currency!



NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

…”Mathematics is the only exact science. All power under heaven and on earth is given to the man who masters the simple science of mathematics.”…

William D Gann


..“How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts?”..

Robert G Allen








Analysts Are Slashing Guidance Ahead Of Q3 Earnings Results

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While CNBC’s Bob Pisani prevaricates on low “high” volume rally days and “the important things,” ahead of Q3 earnings and a horde of hungry commission-takers explain to a gullible public how fundamentals are strong (ignoring entirely the massive manipulation buybacks and financial engineering) and earnings will confirm the equity market’s wisdom any day now; we thought it worth a glance at the dismal evolution of earnings expectations for Q3.

 

 

Since the start of July, S&P 500 Q3 earnings expectations have collapsed from 11.0% to just 6.4% with 9 of the 10 sectors lower and Consumer Discretionary now expected to see negative growth. But… that’s probably not the important thing, right?

h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer





Swing trading portfolio – week of October 6th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.</p></body></html>

 





 
 
 

ValueWalk

#1 Performing Global Macro Hedge Fund Sees More Shorts Opportunities Ahead As China Bursts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Crescat Global Macro Fund update to investors on 1/19/2019

Crescat Global Macro Fund and Crescat Long/Short fund delivered strong returns for both December and full year 2018 in a difficult market. Based on ...



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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

Divisive economics

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author and futurist — explores the records of Democrats and Republicans on the US economy in the following post. For David's latest posts, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog. For his books and short stories, visit his web...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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