Archive for 2014

THe WoRLD IS F*CKED…

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.





China Claims US Behind Hong Kong Protests

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Zachary Zack, originally posted at The Diplomat,

A commentary in the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party on Saturday accused the U.S. of trying to foment a “color revolution” in Hong Kong.

The commentary, which was entitled “Why is the U.S. so keen on ‘Color Revolutions’?”, appeared on the front page of the The People’s Daily overseas editions on Saturday. The People’s Daily is the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party.

The commentary deems it “inevitable” that the U.S. actions towards Hong Kong “will be associated with the US involvement in the ‘Color Revolutions’ in the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Middle East, North Africa and elsewhere.” The People’s Daily then slams the U.S. for pretending to be interested in democracy when it is really only trying to advance its “strategic interests.” For the United States, the commentary claims, a “‘democratic’ country is one that conducts its affairs in line with American interests.”

The commentary ends by stating that “U.S. may enjoy the sweet taste of interfering in other countries’ internal affairs, but on the issue of Hong Kong it stands little chance of overcoming the determination of the Chinese government to maintain stability and prosperity.”

Although China has strongly implied that foreigners were secretly controlling the Hong Kong protests in recent weeks, the commentary was the first time it so explicitly accused the U.S. of being behind the movement. Its support for this accusation is not very compelling, however, as it mostly focuses on the coverage of independent different media outlets, one of which appears to be a Hong Kong-based online publication.

The commentary begins by noting that, “according to media reports,” Louisa Greve, National Endowment for Democracy’s (NED) the Vice President for Asia, Middle East & North Africa, and Global Programs, met with “key people” in Occupy Central “several months ago” to “talk about the movement.” The unidentified media reports the article references likely refers to an earlier report published in a “Hong Kong-based pro-Beijing newspaper,” according to the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post. The allegations themselves are most likely based on a NED-hosted public discussion on democracy in Hong Kong between Occupy Central leaders Martin Lee and Anson Chan that was held in


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McCain Calls for Ground Troops in Syria and an Ebola Czar; Secret Friends

Courtesy of Mish.

I am seriously starting to wonder if Senator John McCain has lost his mind.

In 2009, the Senator complained “Obama has more czars than the Romanovs.” Today, John McCain, Czar Hater, Calls For Ebola Czar.

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) believes President Barack Obama should appoint a “czar” to lead America’s response to Ebola.

“From spending time here in Arizona, my constituents are not comforted. There has to be more reassurance given to them. I would say that we don’t know exactly who’s in charge. There has to be some kind of czar,” McCain said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

Other Republicans have also seemingly changed their minds on the issue. Rep. Jack Kingston (R-Ga.), who once introduced the “Czar Accountability and Reform Act” to cut off funding for czars, said earlier this month that Obama needed to appoint such an official to help unify the government’s response to Ebola.

Why Don’t We Have an Ebola Czar?

The correct answer should be “We don’t have an ebola czar because we do not need one. If created, the position would never go away once created, and we have too many czars already“.

Instead, let’s assume ebola control belongs in the hands of the surgeon general. With that assumption, we do not have an ebola czar because the NRA put the kibosh on Obama’s Surgeon Gen. nominee, Regina Benjamin.

I am not here to debate the merits or lack thereof of Regina Benjamin. I do not know her medical qualifications. I will say that her 2012 tweet calling guns “a health care issue” seems quite reasonable. And for that tweet, her appointment has been blocked.

Ebola vs. Firearm Homicides

The Center for Disease Control reports there were 11,068 firearm homicides in 2011. In 2014 there has been 1 ebola death.

Regardless of one’s position on handgun control, here’s a simple question: what’s the bigger health-care issue?

Yet, instead of a Surgeon General, McCain wants an ebola Czar, even though he whined Obama has too many czars….



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The Sunni-Shia Divide Explained

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Via The Council on Foreign Relations,

Sunni and Shia Muslims have lived peacefully together for centuries. In many countries it has become common for members of the two sects to intermarry and pray at the same mosques. They share faith in the Quran and the Prophet Mohammed's sayings and perform similar prayers, although they differ in rituals and interpretation of Islamic law.

But…

An ancient religious divide is helping fuel a resurgence of conflicts in the Middle East and Muslim countries.

Struggles between Sunni and Shia forces have fed a Syrian civil war that threatens to transform the map of the Middle East, spurred violence that is fracturing Iraq, and widened fissures in a number of tense Gulf countries. Growing sectarian clashes have also sparked a revival of transnational jihadi networks that poses a threat beyond the region.

Islam's schism, simmering for fourteen centuries, doesn't explain all the political, economic, and geostrategic factors involved in these conflicts, but it has become one prism by which to understand the underlying tensions. Two countries that compete for the leadership of Islam, Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran, have used the sectarian divide to further their ambitions. How their rivalry is settled will likely shape the political balance between Sunnis and Shias and the future of the region, especially in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Bahrain.

Alongside the proxy battle is the renewed fervor of armed militants, motivated by the goals of cleansing the faith or preparing the way for the return of the messiah. Today there are tens of thousands of organized sectarian militants throughout the region capable of triggering a broader conflict. And despite the efforts of many Sunni and Shia clerics to reduce tensions through dialogue and counterviolence measures, many experts express concern that Islam's divide will lead to escalating violence and a growing threat to international peace and security.
 





Will the Fed Let the Stock Market Crash Before an Election?

Will the Fed Let the Stock Market Crash Before an Election?

Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds

Anyone in their position with the tools at hand would not have any other real option other than to buy stocks in whatever quantity is needed to reverse the selling and blow the shorts out of the water.

Since I'm writing this on Sunday evening, if the Dow Jones Industrial Average opens down 1,000 on Monday morning, I'm going to look very foolish. Such is the risk of being contrarian. So what's contrarian now--expecting a crash or expecting a bounce and rally?
 
Exactly what the sentiment consensus is right now is open to debate. Analysts expecting a stock market crash see those expecting a rebound as the consensus view.
 
But if we look at various measures of sentiment such as the Put-Call Ratio and greedometer.com, we find elevated levels of fear over the past few weeks. The consensus can hardly be said to complacent when the VIX index is over 20.
 
Let's set aside sentiment measures and technical analysis and ask a larger question: will the Fed let the stock market crash before an election? Once again we find two camps among participants. One camp believes markets still obey the basic rules of technical analysis. The Fed and other central banks may intervene at the margins, but their interventions only work on low-volume days. When selling increases, it overwhelms the relatively modest size of central bank intervention and the market then crash.
 
The other camp holds that all markets are now engineered, and intervention can reach essentially unlimited levels if the Powers That Be deem that necessary. I covered this view in Have We Reached a Financial Singularity? (September 4, 2014)
 
For context, let's recall that the Fed conjured up $16 trillion to backstop global banks in the Global Financial Meltdown; (the Levy Institute came up with $29 trillion after poring over all the data):
 

To put $16 trillion in context, note that entire gross domestic product (GDP) of the U.S. is about $17.3 trillion, and all residential mortgages


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…And The Aussie Stock Futures Market Breaks Again, Due To “Glitch”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Yet another global stock market has been halted due to a ‘glitch’.

 

Following notable selling before China’s trade surplus printed considerably lower than expected:

  • *ASX HAS PLACED ASX 24 MARKET IN HALT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
  • *ASX: TECHNICAL ISSUE PREVENTING UPDATING OF PRICES FOR SOME
  • *ASX SAYS WORKING TO RESOLVE ISSUE IN FUTURES MARKET ASAP

This is not the first time for the ASX and comes just a few months after the New Zealand exchange was halted twice for the same ‘technical’ reason.

 





…And The Aussia Stock Market Breaks Again, Due To “Glitch”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Yet another global stock market has been halted due to a ‘glitch’ following notable selling after China’s trade surplus was considerably less than expected:

  • *ASX HAS PLACED ASX 24 MARKET IN HALT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
  • *ASX: TECHNICAL ISSUE PREVENTING UPDATING OF PRICES FOR SOME
  • *ASX SAYS WORKING TO RESOLVE ISSUE IN FUTURES MARKET ASAP

This is not the first time for the ASX and comes just a few months after the New Zealand exchange was halted twice for the same ‘technical’ reason.





Glenn Greenwald: Why Privacy Matters

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Glenn Greenwald was one of the first reporters to see — and write about — the Edward Snowden files, with their revelations about the United States’ extensive surveillance of private citizens. In this searing talk, Greenwald makes the case for why you need to care about privacy, even if you’re “not doing anything you need to hide.”






Shanghai Exchange Chairman Admits China Gold Demand Topped 2000 Tonnes In 2013

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Koos Jansen via BullionStar.com,

This is the final blow for the ones who still couldn’t comprehend, after all evidence presented, the amount of Chinese non-government gold demand in 2013. At the LBMA forum in Singapore June 25, 2014, one of the keynote speakers was chairman of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) Xu Luode. In his speech he made a few very candid statements about Chinese consumer gold demandthat according to Xu reached 2,000 tonnes in 2013. In contrast to the Word Gold Council (WGC) that states Chinese gold demand was 1,066 tonnes in 2013. Xu's speech has now finally been translated and published in the LBMA magazine The Alchemist #75. 

Xu's statements once again confirm what I have been writing for months. SGE withdrawals equal Chinese wholesale demand:

import + mine + scrap = total supply = SGE withdrawals = wholesale demand

Let's go through a couple of quotes from Xu:  

Data on China’s gold imports has not previously been made available to the public. However, gold has historically been imported through Hong Kong, and Hong Kong is highly transparent, disclosing details such as the number of tonnes of gold imported on a monthly basis. Last year, China imported 1,540 tonnes of gold. Such imports, together with the 430 tonnes of gold we produced ourselves, means that we have, in effect, supplied approximately 2,000 tonnes of gold last year.

 

The 2,000 tonnes of gold were consumed by consumers in China. Of course, we all know that the Chinese ‘dama’ [middle-aged women] accounts for a significant proportion in purchasing gold. So last year, our gold exchange’s inventory reduced by nearly 2,200 tonnes, of which 200 tonnes was recycled gold. 

Again, we can read the simplified equation (for 2013):

import (1540t) + mine (428t) + scrap (229t) = SGE withdrawals (2197t)

Additionally, it's very clear what kind of metric the SGE uses. Xu subtracts recycled gold from SGE withdrawals to measure consumer demand, which equals newly added gold (import + mine = 1968t) to the private holdings of Chinese citizens. Confirming the Chinese gold market with the SGE at its core, is designed by the PBOC to track the quality and quantity of gold held in non-government reserves.  

By flipping the variables in the formula I was able to estimate Chinese
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BoJ Invisible Hand (Briefly) Rescues Nikkei From Sub-15,000 Plunge (Again)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

UPDATE: That didn’t last long… NKY back under 15k as JPY collapses

 

Heavy volume selling in Nikkei futures at the open sent the index down over 200 points and broke the oh-so-crucial 15,000 line. It appears – just as in August that 15,000 is the BoJ’s line in the sand as a miracle buyer turned up and lifted the index all the way back to 15,000 (whiule JPY remained lower and US futures saw no bounce). Of course, for those who prefer to ignore the fact that the BoJ is almost the biggest holder of Japanese stocks in the world and bought more stock ETFs than ever before in August, this is a clear signal of BTFD’ers back to save the world. For the rest of the sane rational fact-checking market participants, that ‘know’ the BoJ’s trigger to buy is a weak morning session, we wonder how much of this futures ramp is front-running… that will fade as JPY is not supportive at all.

 

Who has the muscle to do this in size in the face of heavy volume… in the face of VongFong too

 

Because it’s not carry traders lifting it…

 

Now where have we seen that miracle buying before…

 

Don’t forget the market’s perception that if Japan is down 1% in the morning, the BoJ comes to the rescue… or is it different this time?

 

Charts: Bloomberg





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Enemy Of The People?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Via The Zman blog,

There has never been a time when normal people did not know the media was biased and biased in a predictable direction. For every non-liberal in the media, there were at least ten liberals. The ratio was probably higher, but then, as now, some lefties liked to pretend they were independents or some third option.

The media used to invest a lot of time denying they had a bias and an agenda, but the only people who believed them were on the Left, which had the odd effect of confirming they had a bias and an agenda.

...



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Phil's Favorites

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

 

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

Courtesy of 

Shout to Leigh!

On the new Talk Your Book – Josh Brown is joined by Leigh Drogen of Estimize, one of the leading providers of crowdsourced financial and economic data to talk about the trend in corporate profits that could potentially lead to an earnings recession later this year.

What is the thing that Leigh is seeing in the data that Wall Street isn’t yet picking up on? What segment of the stock market is most at risk? Why is the crowd smarter than the narrow consensus of Wall Street analysts?

Check out Estimize ...



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ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold & Silver Testing Important Breakout Levels!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Gold and Silver from a long-term perspective have created a series of lower highs over the past 8-years. Will 2019 bring a change to this trend? A big test is in play!

Gold since the lows in 2016 has created a series of higher lows, while Silver may have created a double bottom.

Gold & Silver are currently facing break attempts a (1) and (2). These falling resistance lines have disappointed metals bulls for the past few years.

The direction of Gold and Silver weeks and months from now should be highly influenced by what each does as they are attempting to break above important resistance levels.

To become a member of Kimbl...



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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Russia Prepares To Buy Up To $10 Billion In Bitcoin To Evade US Sanctions

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

While the market has been increasingly focused on the rising headwinds in the global economy in general, and China's economic slowdown in particular, while the media is obsessing over daily revelations that Trump may or may not have colluded with Russia to get elected, a far more critical, if underreported, shift has been taking place over the past year.

As we reported in June, whether due to concerns over draconian western sanctions and asset confiscations following the poisoning of former Russian military officer Sergei Skripal, or simply because it wanted to diversify away from the dollar, Russia liquidated virtually all of its Treasury holdings in the late spri...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's failure based on his personality, which was evident years ago. This article, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump became president, in July, 2016, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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