Archive for 2014

Are We Ready For The Fall Of Baghdad?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Ron Holland via The Daily Bell,

I recently was in Vietnam and spent some time in prosperous, capitalist Saigon, now called Ho Chi Minh City, and toured the American War Museum. I believe there are a number of parallels between the Vietnam and Iraq War and that history could repeat itself now in Baghdad. Who can forget the former Vietnamese supporters of America being left behind as the last helicopter left the roof of the US embassy?

Today, America still has the strongest military in the world but our manufacturing capacity and financial situation shows the US is on a downhill slide like earlier over-extended and bankrupt empires throughout world history.

We've already watched the frightening incompetence of the Obama Administration and the CDC in dealing with the Ebola virus. One would have to be blind not to see the petrodollar deathwatch as Russia, China and the BRIC countries build new trading alternatives to avoid using the dollar world reserve currency when trading energy and other financial dealings.

This is simple payback for Washington's threats, banking fines and penalties against institutions and nations de jure that fail to march to the US tune of dictating trade and financial arrangements. The world is now ganging up on the United States because Washington has terrorized smaller nations around the world for decades as the big bully on the block.

We've had the misfortune of watching ISIS – originally funded and equipped by the US, Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf allies, as was Bin Laden – turn on their benefactors out to destroy Assad in Syria because of a pipeline deal and take over much of Iraq. My point is just as the pro-US South Vietnamese government could not survive without major US forces, neither will the present government in Baghdad. So what could happen to the massive, fortified Baghdad US Embassy in the Green Zone that rivals the Vatican in size? What are the possible military objectives of the Islamic State fighters (ISIS) in regard to the Iraqi capitol?

While the US media elites and the Air Force concentrates on a meaningless ISIS backwater diversionary attack on Kobane on the northern Syrian border with Turkey, their real target is Baghdad and this will likely become very apparent between now and the end of
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Swing trading portfolio – week of October 27th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

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Swing trading virtual portfolio

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How China & Gold Will Shape The Future

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Willem Middlekoop, author of The Big Reset – The War On Gold And The Financial Endgame, believes the current international monetary system has entered its last term and is up for a reset. Having predicted the collapse of the real estate market in 2006, (while Ben Bernanke didn't), Middlekoop asks (rhetorically) – can the global credit expansion 'experiment' from 2002 – 2008, which Bernanke completely underestimated, be compared to the global QE 'experiment' from 2008 – present? – the answer is worrisome. In the following presentation he shares his thoughts on the future of the global monetary system; and how gold, the US and China are paramount for its outcome.

 

Middlekoop predicts the real estate crash in 2006… (ensure English Subtitles – Closed Captions – are enabled)

 

Bernanke did not… (stunning!!)

 

So just how big an underestimation are central bankers making this time with their 'experimentation'…

Willem Middelkoop On The Big Reset… (ensure English Subtitles – Closed Captions – are enabled)

Source: Koos Jansen via BullionStar

*  *  *

And here is an in-depth interview with Middelkoop (in English) that summarizes "how the house of cards will come tumbling down"

 

FULL TRANSCRIPT OF THE INTERVIEW available at the website above.

02:11 – Live video of Willem Middelkoop from Amsterdam.

03:52 – The Next Reset

05:45 – Christine LaGarde – Reset, notes at Davos

07:37 – Asset backed currencies, SDR

09:03 – Bretton Woods – Gold backed dollar

09:41 – Germany gold repatriation – Fort Knox Gold

10:38 – Germany Bundesbank

12:15 – Central bankers and gold

12:26 – IMF double counting gold of member countries.

13:36 – Gold Certificates – Gold on Federal Reserve and Treasury balance sheets.

14:35 – Which countries have the most gold reserves

15:32 – Interest Rates – Negative Rates – Japan example for U.S. and E.U.

17:26 – Debt to GDP – Japan – Why we need a monetary reset – Debt restructurings

19:20 – Financial Reforms versus sovereign Debt Restructuring

20:05 – Debt Cancellation – Removing $2 trillion from Federal Reserve Balance Sheet – If the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury reevaluate gold's price to $4,200 or $8,400 an ounce instead of $42 an ounce as it is currently.

22:08 – The Euro and the Global Currency Reset –…
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Brazilian Stocks Tumble 6% In Early Japan Trading

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

So far US equity futures are flat to modestly higher on the ‘disappointing’ news that Rousseff was re-elected in Brazil. USDJPY has given up its hope-based gains and is lower (implying a 4-5 point drop in S&P Futures that is not there yet). Brazilian stocks (trading in Japanese ETFs) are down almost 6% in early trading on heavy volume as the pro-business hope-driven rally has been almost entirely given back.

 

NEXT FUNDS IBOVESPA ETF (Japan)

 

On heavy volume…

 

and USDJPY has faded – though S&P Futures are stable for now…

 

Charts: Bloomberg





The Only Financial Ratio That Truly Matters

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

When stock prices go all wonky, as they have in recent days, it pays to think a little about what really moves asset prices and determines long term business success.  For ConvergEx's Nick Colas, the key driver has been – and always will be – return on capitalWhat investment analysts know as the DuPont model is now 100 years old, but its lessons and applications still drive innovation today. Want to know why Airbnb or Uber are successful?

They leverage existing assets to create higher returns – right out of the DuPont playbook. And consider that time is the scarcest and most valuable asset of all; every successful mobile app or social network tries to give you more choices about how to spend it. Optimizing return on capital – defined as maximizing any scarce resource – is always the compass that points to success.

Via ConvergEx's Nick Colas,

In 1920, General Motors had less than 12% of the U.S. car market; by the 1950s it held more than 50%. During World War II it was a critical part of the “Arsenal of Democracy”, and without it the war would have certainly lasted longer and cost many more lives. Even in the 1990s, when other carmakers struggled – Chrysler almost went bankrupt in 1991 – GM rolled along with an “A” credit rating and a +30% share of the U.S. automobile market.  And while we all know the GM of today, it pays to remember that it was once the Apple/Google/Facebook of an earlier era.
 
That GM’s success lasted as long as it did is more the function of one man and one financial discipline than most people realize today. Alfred Sloan, who ran the company from 1923 to 1956 as Chief Executive Officer and then Chairman of the Board, was the epitome of the 20th century focused and dedicated manager. He centralized administrative functions and left everything else to operating heads. He regularly traveled the country, visiting 5-10 dealers a day to hear their concerns.  He never shouted – his nickname was “Silent Sloan” – preferring to lead with quiet consensus building. He was on the wrong side of history as the industry unionized, to be sure, but afterwards he certainly ran a company that delivered a huge slice of the American dream…
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The Challenges Of Defending Your Child’s Mind From Propaganda

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by The Dissident Dad via Mike Krieger’s Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

In great empires the people who live in the capital, and in the provinces remote from the scene of action, feel, many of them, scarce any inconveniency from the war; but enjoy, at their ease, the amusement of reading in the newspapers the exploits of their own fleets and armies. To them this amusement compensates the small difference between the taxes which they pay on account of the war, and those which they had been accustomed to pay in time of peace.They are commonly dissatisfied with the return of peace, which puts an end to their amusement, and to a thousand visionary hopes of conquest and national glory from a longer continuance of the war.

 

– Adam Smith in The Wealth of Nations

Let’s face it, your child’s mind is fertile ground for oligarchs, corrupt politicians and any other thieving member of the so-called “ruling elite” who aim to enslave the masses both mentally and monetarily. Unfortunately, the propaganda that comes from the government and our largest corporations is perceived as being absolute truth by most people. If you’re like me, at one point in time you had to wake up to it all and accept that you had been completely brainwashed for the first few decades for your life.

On a parental level, defending my child’s mind against blatant lies and deceit from the media, military industrial complex and corporatism is really not that difficult. But what about their grandparents, cousins or the kids next door?

I truly believe that most Americans suffer from Stockholm Syndrome, a psychological phenomenon where the victim identifies with the attacker to the point they will even defend their captor and even treat certain forms of abuse as a form of compassion.

We see this everywhere; especially around election time, where the voters defend all kinds of atrocities and criminal actions by our elected officials.

The mobs, of course, love the abuse and crimes against humanity. They probably even feel patriotic if the guy committing the crimes is of the same political affiliation they identify with.

When I am home with the kids, observing this type of behavior is easy to discuss – right and wrong is…
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The Scariest Number Revealed Today: $1.114 Trillion In Eurozone Bad Debt

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As we previously reported, the ECB’s latest stress test was once again patently flawed from the start. Why? Because as we noted earlier, in its most draconian, “adverse” scenario, the ECB simply refused to contemplate the possibility of deflation. And here’s why. Buried deep in the report, on page 75 of 178, is the following revelation which contains in it the scariest number presented to the public today.

Due to the fact that on average banks’ internal definitions were less conservative than the simplified EBA approach, the application of the simplified approach led to an increase in NPE stock of €54.6 billion from €743.1 billion to €797.7 billion. The CFR and the projection of findings led to an additional increase in NPE of €81.3 billion, resulting in a total increase €135.9 billion to €879.1 billion of post-CFR NPEs across the participating banks as a result of the AQR. The impact of the application of the EBA simplified approach and the credit file review on the stock of NPEs varied amongst debtor geographies, with overall increases among SSM debtor geographies ranging from 7% to 116%.

 

Translated: due to a lotta ins, lotta outs, lotta what-have-you’s, and the now traditional “fluidity” when it comes to European term definitions (recall that as of this year, in Europe hookers and blow contribute to (estimated) GDP otherwise the Eurozone would be in deep triple-dip recession, if not outright depression by now) the stress test, while concluding that Europe’s banks are “safe”, also uncovered some €136 billion in previously undisclosed NPE or “Non-Performing Exposure”, aka Bad Loans – loans which will never be repaid.

Which in turn leads to the new bad loan total amount (that will also in the coming quarters be revised sharply higher) among Eurozone banks: a whopping €879 billion, or some $1.114 trillion at today’s exchange rate. This amount to a stunning 9% of the the Eurozone’s GDP and is precisely the reason why the ECB can’t possibly even conceive of deflation, as without the much needed rising prices to inflate away this NPL debt tumor, Europe’s banks are all insolvent, regardless of what today’s stress test may have revealed about just a paltry 25 of them.

And then there is the question…
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Another Deutsche Banker And Former SEC Enforcement Attorney Commits Suicide

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Back on January 26, a 58-year-old former senior executive at German investment bank behemoth Deutsche Bank, William Broeksmit, was found dead after hanging himself at his London home, and with that, set off an unprecedented series of banker suicides throughout the year which included former Fed officials and numerous JPMorgan traders.

Following a brief late summer spell in which there was little if any news of bankers taking their lives, as reported previously, the banker suicides returned with a bang when none other than the hedge fund partner of infamous former IMF head Dominique Strauss-Khan, Thierry Leyne, a French-Israeli entrepreneur, was found dead after jumping off the 23rd floor of one of the Yoo towers, a prestigious residential complex in Tel Aviv. 

Just a few brief hours later the WSJ reported that yet another Deutsche Bank veteran has committed suicide, and not just anyone but the bank’s associate general counsel, 41 year old Calogero “Charlie” Gambino, who was found on the morning of Oct. 20, having also hung himself by the neck from a stairway banister, which according to the New York Police Department was the cause of death. We assume that any relationship to the famous Italian family carrying that last name is purely accidental.

Here is his bio from a recent conference which he attended:

Charlie J. Gambino is a Managing Director and Associate General Counsel in the Regulatory, Litigation and Internal Investigation group for Deutsche Bank in the Americas. Mr. Gambino served as a staff attorney in the United Securities and Exchange Commission’s Division of Enforcement from 1997 to 1999. He also was associated with the law firm of Skadden, Arps, Slate Meagher & Flom from 1999 to 2003. He is a frequent speaker at securities law conferences. Mr. Gambino is a member of the American Bar Association and the Association of the Bar of the City of New York.

As a reminder, the other Deutsche Bank-er who was found dead earlier in the year, William Broeksmit, was involved in the bank’s risk function and advised the firm’s senior leadership; he was “anxious about various authorities investigating areas of the bank where he worked,” according to written evidence from his psychologist, given Tuesday at an inquest at London’s Royal Courts of Justice. And…
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Dilma Rousseff Re-elected As Brazil President

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In what is sure to be a major risk-off move for the Bovespa, and Latin American risk in general, moments ago the newswires blasted that in what was expected to be a very closely contested election, incumbent President Dilma Rousseff has 50.99% of valid votes vs 49.01% for challenger Aecio Neves with 95% of ballots counted, according to Brazil electoral court website.

And while the TSE hasn’t yet declared a winner, Folha newspaper just blasted Rouseff as Brazil’s re-elected leader.

The good news is that the Bovespa will no longer trade like a Nikkei225 on steroids, violently surging or plunging by 5% based on the latest propaganda election poll.

As for those wondering if this will be just the right amount of “bad news is good news” for the algos to surge on yet another bout of flashing red negative headlines for global growth – at least in a narrowly Keynesian sense: recall that Brazil, i.e., Rousseff, has been getting far too cozy with Putin in recent months to be on Obama and the IMF’s Christmas present list – we hope to find out shortly: as of this moment, ES is a tepid 1.25 higher.

* * *

For those who haven’t followed the vote and its implications, some background from the BBC:

Voting has ended in Brazil in one of the most bitterly-contested and tightest presidential elections.

Left-leaning President Dilma Rousseff faced centrist Aecio Neves of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) in the second round run-off.

Both candidates have fought to try to convince voters they can lift more Brazilians out of poverty and kick-start Latin America’s largest economy.

On Saturday, opinion polls gave Ms Rousseff a slight lead over Mr Neves.

More than 140 million Brazilians voted across three time zones. Results are expected soon.

Correspondents say the middle class vote in Brazil’s industrial southeast will be crucial.

Ms Rousseff voted early in the southern city of Porto Alegre, where she lived and developed her political career in the 1990s.

Mr Neves cast his ballot in the city of Belo Horizonte, where he served as governor of the southern swing-state of Minas Gerais for eight years.

At the scene: Wyre Davies, BBC News, Rio de Janeiro

In the sprawling Rio de Janeiro favela of Rocinha, support for the…
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Energy Economics

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Via Adam Taggart of Peak Prosperity,

The reason why growth will be more scarce in the future…

The central point to this latest video is this: as we’ve shown in previous chapters of the Crash Course, our global economy depends on continual growth to function. And not just any kind of growth; but exponential growth.

But in order to grow, it must receive an ever-increasing input supply of affordable energy and resources from the natural world. What I’m about to show you is a preponderance of data that indicates those inputs will just not be there in the volumes needed to supply the growth that the world economy is counting on.

In short, on top of all the debt and other economic messes we’ve made for ourselves, constraints from the natural world will increasingly place limits on economic growth in a way we haven’t had to deal with over the past century.

This is why I’m so confident in the claim that the next 20 years will be completely unlike the past 20.

So understanding the dynamics at play here is key to forecasting what the future will be like. Since energy is the master resource, that’s where we’re going to start.

For those who simply don't want to wait until the end of the year to view the entire new series, you can indulge your binge-watching craving by enrolling to PeakProsperity.com. The entire full new series, all 27 chapters of it, is available — now-- to our enrolled users.

The full suite of chapters in this new Crash Course series can be found at www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse

And for those who have yet to view it, be sure to watch the 'Accelerated' Crash Course — the under-1-hour condensation of the new 4.5-hour series. It's a great vehicle for introducing new eyes to this material.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Americans' Economic Hope Has Collapsed

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Which came first, the confidence or the stock market rally?

One thing is for sure, the crash in stocks in December has crushed the hope of Americans that their economic future is going to be better under President Trump.

Overall confidence dipped to 58.1 - a 4-month low, but, U.S. consumers this month were the most downbeat on the economy since November 2016, a third straight drop after expectations reached a 16-year high just three months earlier, as the partial government shutdown wears on toward a fourth week.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Triple Breakout Test In Play For S&P 500!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the rally of late about to run out of steam or is a major breakout about to take place in the S&P 500? What happens at current prices should go a long way in determining this question.

This chart looks at the equal weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) on a daily basis over the past 15-months.

The rally from the lows on Christmas Eve has RSP testing the top of a newly formed falling channel while testing the underneath side of the 2018 trading range and its falling 50-day moving average at (1).

At this time RPS is facing a triple resistance test. Wil...



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Phil's Favorites

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

 

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

Courtesy of Victoria Honeyman, University of Leeds

As the clock ticks down to March 29 2019, all of the political manoeuvring, negotiating, arguing and fighting is coming to a peak. In the two and a half years since the 2016 EU referendum, views on both sides have hardened and agreement still seems as far away as it was the day after the referendum.

With Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement disliked by all sides, and voted down by an unprecedented majority in the House of Commons, everyone is wondering what can and should be done next?

...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto-Bubble: Will Bitcoin Bottom In February Or Has It Already?

Courtesy of Michelle Jones via ValueWalk.com

The new year has been relatively good for the price of bitcoin after a spectacular collapse of the cryptocurrency bubble in 2018. It’s up notably since the middle of December and traded around the psychological level of $4,000... so is this a sign that the crypto market is about to recover?

Of course, it depends on who you ask, but one analyst discovered a pattern which might point to a bottom next month.

A year after the cryptocurrency bubble popped

CCN...



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ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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