Archive for 2014

Gold and Silver Supply and Demand 2 Nov

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Monetary Metals.

by Keith Weiner


Woe unto the gold speculators, and a curse laid upon the house of silver.

At least, that’s how it may feel. In more clinical terms, the gold price fell from $1,230.90 to $1,172.59, or $58.31. The drop this week was 4.7%. The price closed the week below the level set after the crash of 2013, which was $1180 (by the way, an intraday dip). The gold price has never closed a day below $1188 since 2010.

The silver price fell from $17.17 to $16.13. $1.04 is 6.1%. It’s never been lower in years, except briefly in 2010.

On April 9, we said:

“The neutral price of silver is in the $16’s today. If the price overshoots as far to the downside as it is now stretched to the upside, we could see silver with a 12 handle.”

We got hate mail.

In the first place, one would hope that people don’t shoot at messengers. We are of the firm belief that gold and silver are money, and the paper issued by the Fed is not. At the same time, we argue that this view is not a trading strategy. For trading, we look to market data.

Second, we were right. While other analysts called every blip with renewed forecasts of $50 and $250, the silver price has spoken. It had a false breakout in June, and has been falling steadily since then. It has traded with a 15 handle this week. Incredibly, the fundamental price we calculate for silver is still below the market price.

To see the fundamentals, read on…

First, here is the graph of the metals’ prices.

The Prices of Gold and Silver


We are interested in the changing equilibrium created when some market participants are accumulating hoards and others are dishoarding. Of course, what makes it exciting is that speculators can (temporarily) exaggerate or fight against the trend. The speculators are often acting on rumors, technical analysis, or partial data about flows into or out of one corner of the market. That kind of information can’t tell them whether the globe, on net, is hoarding or dishoarding.

One could point out that gold does not, on net, go into or out of anything. Yes, that is true.
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Top Performing Industries For November 3, 2014

Courtesy of Benzinga.

At 10:30 am, the Dow dropped 0.22% to 17,352.51, the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index moved down 0.13% to 2,015.35 and the NASDAQ composite index rose 0.19% to 4,639.55.

The industries that are supporting the market today are:

Photographic Equipment & Supplies: The industry gained 4.90% by 10:30 am. The top performer in this industry was GoPro (NASDAQ: GPRO), which gained 6.6%. GoPro’s PEG ratio is 2.15.

Semiconductor- Memory Chips: This industry moved up 2.22% by 10:30 am. The top performer in this industry was SunEdison Semiconductor (NASDAQ: SEMI), which gained 2.5%. SunEdison Semiconductor is expected to report its Q3 financial results on November 5, 2014.

Manufactured Housing: This industry jumped 2.01% by 10:30 am. The top performer in this industry was Tile Shop Holdings (NASDAQ: TTS), which rose 4.9%. Tile Shop shares have dropped 62.43% over the past 52 weeks, while the S&P 500 index has gained 14.56% in the same period.

Electronic Equipment: This industry rose 1.16% by 10:30 am ET. The top performer in this industry was Elecsys (NASDAQ: ESYS), which gained 4.6%. Elecsys’ trailing-twelve-month ROE is 16.25%.

Posted-In: Top Performing IndustriesNews Intraday Update Markets Movers

Stifel Downgrades Aviv REIT After Exceeding Price Target

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Stifel downgraded Aviv REIT Inc (NYSE: AVIV) from Buy to Hold in a report issued Monday.

“Aviv agreed to be acquired by Omega Healthcare Investors for $34.97, a 16 percent premium, in a stock for stock transactions. We are moving from Buy to Hold, having exceeded our price target,” according to analyst Chad Vanacore.

The report calculated “a 6.7 percent implied cap rate on the portfolio, which seems relatively full priced for skilled nursing where individual assets can be acquired for 8-10 percent yields. We see this as an indication of the value of Aviv's ability to source deals and its attractive portfolio of diverse operators. In a larger sense, the transaction affirms portfolio premiums across the healthcare REIT universe.”

The report concluded by noting that the firm “initiated on September 10 with a Buy rating and $31 price target under the thesis that Aviv could source accretive transactions and grow faster than its peers. Our thesis has been borne out in the third quarter and, in light of Aviv's impending acquisition by Omega, we have exceeded that target and are moving to a Hold rating.”

Aviv REIT recently traded at $34.04, up 0.92 percent.

Latest Ratings for AVIV

Date Firm Action From To
Nov 2014 Stifel Nicolaus Downgrades Buy Hold
Oct 2014 SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Downgrades Buy Neutral
Sep 2014 Stifel Nicolaus Initiates Coverage on Buy

View More Analyst Ratings for AVIV
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Chad Vanacore StifelAnalyst Color Downgrades Analyst Ratings

Alibaba Earnings Preview: Why Analysts Are Excited

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related BABA
What The Twitterverse Thinks Of Alibaba
Dan Nathan's Alibaba Group Trade Ahead Of Earnings
Amazon Earnings: What to Expect (Fox Business)

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE: BABA) on Tuesday is scheduled to report its first-ever quarterly report as a public company before the markets open.

Analysts are expecting the Chinese e-commerce giant to earn $0.45 per share on revenues of $2.64 billion.

Shares of Alibaba were trading higher by more nearly 4 percent Monday as investors are anticipating a strong earnings report. With a market cap of about $250 billion, the company is one of the most valuable tech companies in the world.

Alibaba will signal to the investment community if its massive valuation is justified, overvalued or perhaps undervalued.

Related Link: What The Twitterverse Thinks Of Alibaba

So far, analyst sentiment is heavily skewed towards the positive. Following the end of Alibaba's lock-up period, 14 out of 15 investment banks involved with the company's IPO initiated coverage with a bullish rating. The lone Neutral rating came from analysts at Goldman Sachs.

Alibaba Isn't Amazon

Investors who point out, Inc.'s unprofitable fourth quarter results despite strong revenue growth as a reason to maintain a cautious view may be mistaken.

"China and the US' internet sectors are in different phases of growth and industry development, meaning valuation comparisons between them are of limited or no relevance," Citigroup's Thomas Chong wrote in a note when he initiated Alibaba with a Buy rating and $118 price target on October 29.

With that said, investors will need to see concrete signs of further growth in the quarter along with sustainable growth plans.

Alibaba had 279 million annual active buyers prior to the quarter, up from 231 million the company had when it initiated its IPO process. The company attracts 188 million monthly visitors on mobile devices. As many Chinese consumers are buying mobile devices for the first…
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Nordea Downgrades Diamond Offshore Drilling To Strong Sell, Lowers PT To $29

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DO
Deutsche Bank Raises Price Target On Diamond Offshore
Bank Of America On Offshore Drillers: Too Early For Contrarian Bull Call
Energy Stocks Move Higher as Oil Spikes (Fox Business)

Nordea Downgrades Diamond Offshore Drilling From Sell To Strong Sell, Lowers PT From $30 To $29

Latest Ratings for DO

Date Firm Action From To
Oct 2014 Goldman Sachs Downgrades Neutral Sell
Oct 2014 Nordea Upgrades Strong Sell Sell
Oct 2014 Deutsche Bank Maintains Sell

View More Analyst Ratings for DO
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Downgrades Price Target Analyst Ratings

UPDATE: Credit Suisse Reiterates On Genesee & Wyoming On EPS Revisions

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related GWR
UPDATE: Genesee & Wyoming Posts Better-Than-Expected Q3 Earnings
Earnings Scheduled For October 31, 2014

In a report published Monday, Credit Suisse analyst Allison M. Landry reiterated an Outperform rating on Genesee & Wyoming Inc (NYSE: GWR), and raised the price target from $107.00 to $108.00.

In the report, Credit Suisse noted, “While we viewed the Q4 guide as somewhat negative, we think that the bad news was already largely priced in, and investors have already begun to focus on 2015 results. Though detailed guidance will not be provided until the Q4 earnings call, GWR did note that it expects 2015 core pricing gains to trend in line with the Class I rails (which are expecting an acceleration in pricing), and was bullish with respect to growth prospects in its ag products, frac sand, and NGL businesses looking toward next year.”

Genesee & Wyoming closed on Friday at $96.20.

Latest Ratings for GWR

Date Firm Action From To
Nov 2014 Credit Suisse Maintains Outperform
Oct 2014 Macquarie Maintains Neutral
Aug 2014 Credit Suisse Maintains Outperform

View More Analyst Ratings for GWR
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Allison M. Landry Credit SuisseAnalyst Color Price Target Analyst Ratings

UPDATE: Morgan Stanley Initiates Coverage On Twitter

Courtesy of Benzinga.

On Monday, analysts at Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on shares of Twitter Inc (NYSE: TWTR) with an Equal-weight rating and $42 price target.

Benjamin Swinburne outlined reasons for the Equal-weight rating.

Monetizing broader audience will take time. Swinburne finds that it will take significant time to to convert the broader audience to logged-on users which will add the most meaningful revenue to the company.

"Twitter’s global MAU growth has reflected a slower pace of adoption than expected, and we forecast net adds decelerating in ‘15/16E. Focus has shifted to monetizing logged-off visitors, but the opportunity likely reflects a marginally less engaged consumer of Twitter’s content."

Furthermore, Swinburne finds it difficult to compare Twitter advertising revenues to Facebook ad revenue.

"Monetization of registered users continues to improve, aided by a mix of higher priced ad units. Nevertheless, we view expectations to narrow the monetization gap with Facebook as optimistic given inherent differences in 1) time spent and 2) engagement vs. impression-based ad selling.:

Lastly, analysts find Twitter’s stock compensation is a large expense. "Stock-based compensation expense represents nearly 50% of revenues in ‘14E and we expect this remains a meaningful expense as Twitter competes to retain key talent."

Shares of Twitter Inc recently traded at $41.05, down 1 percent Monday morning.

Latest Ratings for TWTR

Date Firm Action From To
Nov 2014 Morgan Stanley Initiates Coverage on Equalweight
Oct 2014 Wedbush Maintains Neutral
Oct 2014 Citigroup Maintains Neutral

View More Analyst Ratings for TWTR
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Benjamin Swinburne Morgan StanleyAnalyst Color Price Target Initiation Analyst Ratings

UPDATE: Deutsche Bank Initiates Coverage On Smart & Final Stores On Differentiated, Value-Oriented Disruptor

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related SFS
UPDATE: Morgan Stanley Initiates Coverage On Smart & Final Stores On Multiple Growth Drivers
Stocks Hitting 52-Week Highs

In a report published Monday, Deutsche Bank analyst Karen Short initiated coverage on Smart & Final Stores Inc (NYSE: SFS) with a Buy rating and $17.00 price target.

In the report, Deutsche Bank noted, “SFS is well-positioned to be a disruptor in food retail and foodservice distribution. At the S&F banner, the company will continue gaining share through aggressive pricing, a high-quality offering, and convenient locations – leading to consistent 4+% comp growth. Given S&F’s significant unit potential, the company should be able to grow units by 10%/yr for 7 yrs in existing and adjacent markets. In the future, C&C also represents a significant growth opportunity. However, our estimates/valuation reflect only very modest expansion in this format for now. Net, the SFS growth algorithm should generate ~13% EBITDA growth and ~17% EPS growth through FY19.”

Smart & Final Stores closed on Friday at $14.75.

Latest Ratings for SFS

Date Firm Action From To
Nov 2014 Barclays Initiates Coverage on Equal-weight
Nov 2014 Morgan Stanley Initiates Coverage on Equal-weight
Nov 2014 Deutsche Bank Initiates Coverage on Buy

View More Analyst Ratings for SFS
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Deutsche Bank Karen ShortAnalyst Color Initiation Analyst Ratings

UPDATE: BWS Financial Upgrades Atlantic Tele-Network On Data Traffic

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related ATNI
Top 4 NASDAQ Stocks In The Telecom Services-Domestic Industry With The Highest Gross Margin
Bear of the Day: Atlantic Tele-Network (ATNI) – Bear of the Day

In a report published Monday, BWS Financial analyst Hamed Khorsand upgraded the rating on Atlantic Tele-Network (NASDAQ: ATNI) from Sell to Hold, and reiterated the $64.00 price target.

In the report, BWS Financial noted, “Atlantic Tele-Network (ATNI) upgrading more of its wireless base stations led the way in the Company reporting third quarter results surpassing expectations. ATNI upgraded nearly 200 base stations in the third quarter to help deliver the superior results in the third quarter while the rest of the portfolio continues to underperform. ATNI’s earnings performance is leading to investors expecting such numbers on a regular basis, but we believe ATNI will soon reach an inflection point with pricing declining faster than the amount of traffic coming on the network.”

Atlantic Tele-Network closed on Friday at $59.39.

Latest Ratings for ATNI

Date Firm Action From To
Nov 2014 BWS Financial Upgrades Sell Hold
Aug 2014 Raymond James Maintains Outperform
May 2014 BWS Financial Downgrades Hold Sell

View More Analyst Ratings for ATNI
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: BWS Financial Hamed KhorsandAnalyst Color Upgrades Analyst Ratings

Japanese Stocks Up 1600 Points, USDJPY Up 5 Handles Since QE Ended; Kuroda Opposition Grows

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Nikkei 225 futures are up over 1600 points since QE ended and topped 17,000 in a quiet Asian holiday session. USDJPY topped 113, up a stunning 5 big figures since QE ended. But it's not all hyperinflationary ponies and rainbows as The Wall Street Journal stuns its readership by admitting "although economic theory says a falling yen should make Japanese goods more competitive overseas and boost exports, that didn’t happen." Of course, that merely means moar is needed and therein lies the problem as opposition (internal and external) to Kuroda's policies are growing.

"Opposition within the BOJ looks likely to continue,” said a former board member who has close ties to some current members. Another person familiar with the board’s views said the gap between Mr. Kuroda and other members was growing and represented the “biggest problem” for the central-bank chief.

What a joke!! 1600 points and 5 big figures… NKY tops 17,000 and USDJPY tops 113


But as The Wall Street Journal notes, the vote for moar QQE was close (5-4) with, rather worringly obvious for the ivory tower academics, of the four dissenters, two are former private-sector economists and the other two are former business executives.

According to minutes of a BOJ board meeting in September, one member said “additional measures to stimulate demand carry the risk of growing financial imbalances or weakening the public’s recognition of the need for structural reform.”


Critics have said the BOJ’s dominant role buying government debt has distorted financial markets, pointing to negative interest rates on some short-term debt.


What came as a surprise were the no votes cast by the two members from the business community. Both Yoshihisa Morimoto, a former power-company executive, and former Sumitomo Bank executive Koji Ishida have generally voted with the majority, and BOJ officials have said Mr. Kuroda respects their hands-on experience. The two didn’t explain their votes, but Japan’s leading business lobby, Keidanren, has warned recently against an overly weak yen. Business leaders have said a weak currency may discourage consumption because people have to pay more for imported goods.

And finally, Kuroda and Abe face pressure politically…

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#1 Performing Global Macro Hedge Fund Sees More Shorts Opportunities Ahead As China Bursts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Crescat Global Macro Fund update to investors on 1/19/2019

Crescat Global Macro Fund and Crescat Long/Short fund delivered strong returns for both December and full year 2018 in a difficult market. Based on ...

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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...

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Divisive economics


Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author and futurist — explores the records of Democrats and Republicans on the US economy in the following post. For David's latest posts, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog. For his books and short stories, visit his web...

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Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...

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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain


Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...

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Insider Scoop Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...

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Why Trump Can't Learn


Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...

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Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.


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Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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