Archive for 2014

Comment by mrmocha

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  1. mrmocha

    Phil - what is Lloyd trying to tell us?  PCLN has been replaced by AAPL as the stock that hovers at 666.

Comment by Pharmboy

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  1. Pharmboy

    No shoot…

    HSBC's preliminary reading of Chinese manufacturing activity dropped to 47.8 for the current month from a final print of 49.3 in July, the bank said Thursday, marking the worst result in nine months. The flash version of the China manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index remained below 50 for the 10th month in a row. The flash result is based on 85% to 90% of the total responses to the survey.

Comment by gel1

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  1. gel1

    No question about it – you have been warning about overvaluation in the markets for some time along with the prediction a correction will materialize sooner than later –  I heeded your advice for caution the week before last, and closed out 50% of my portfolio and went to cash  Thank you for the sage advice.. With my stops and hedges in place I thought the balance of my positions were safe. Obama’s two speeches this past week made the decision for me on another 40%, so now I am down to 10% with most of the positions 100% hedged with no stops as I would be killed by taxes if stopped out. So here I am starting over "squeezing nickles into quarters" and looking for bearish opportunities that seen to be the most attractive plays going forward. When this correction reaches the levels we had early spring of last year, then I will begin to accumulate stocks using the buy/write strategy.
    Re your very interesting post on the residential real estate experiences, I must confessI was a contributor/participent in the bubble formation. Like so many others taking out mortgages on houses, I was leveraging this opportunity as a speculator. On the mortgage application, you would always be asked the question – "Will this be your primary home that you will be residing in?" I would always give a Yes answer. What an easy scam that was – after a week of residency, you rent it out and go get another "primary" residence. At one point I had five "primary" residences, however they all were in sequence. I do not think I was alone, and I made a lot of money for realtors that did almost nothing for their few minutes of work. This was legal and I did not lie, but the regulations were a joke. These type of regulations allowed speculators like me to legally contribute to the bubble.

Comment by albo

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  1. albo

    My AAPL trade on Tuesday not looking dumb anymore.

Comment by 1020

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  1. 1020

    Good Morning!

Comment by Phil

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  1. Phil

    Nas is finishing green thanks to 2% AAPL pop (well played) that added 0.4% to the index (up 0.3%) all by itself.  Dow barely down but doesn't look like they can get green here.  75M shares traded with 5 mins to go means a good 40M coming in at the last minutes.  

    Oil just stopped dead at $97.30 and now flat.  

    Gold still up at $1,657.  TLT $124.50!  VIX 15, Dollar 81.55.  

    CNBC can't understand why the sheeple didn't stampede in when they just told you how great the Fed minutes were.   Don't worry, I'm sure the WSJ will straighten them out overnight…  


    Fed Minutes Signal Action Likely

    The Fed sent its strongest signal yet that it is preparing to take new steps to bolster the recovery, saying that measures would be needed fairly soon unless economic growth picks up substantially.


    U.S. Stocks Pare Losses

    U.S. blue-chip stocks pared the day's declines, propelled by hopes that the Federal Reserve may act again to stimulate the economy. 

    Hey, guest on CNBC says not enough retail (ie. stupid) investors in the market.  

    I love this picture – a Chinese swimming pool.  Yep, China will be the answer to everything:  


    There's the bell – Just the Nas makes green and here comes HPQ earnings, which better be good but they already fell $1 from the top this morning (down 4% officially).  

    Lame volume – 106M for the day.  

Comment by jromeha

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  1. jromeha

    Greetings from sunny Bishkek! I have finally left Afghanistan and am returning home! It was a balmy -22 F when I arrived here yesterday. Will be sitting in terminal all night do I'm counting on you making me some money Phil!

Comment by jacalynm

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  1. jacalynm

    "Within my power" , "Fairly Soon".   I'm going to give these answers to Fannie Mae when they are looking for my next mortgage payment on a house that's underwater by 40%.  "I'll pay within my power, fairly soon".  Gotta love the power!

Comment by ariveraA

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  1. ariveraA

    Similar to my thoughts on bitcoin /

Comment by albo

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  1. albo

    LQMT – Phil, I remember !   Still have some.


Zero Hedge

Enemy Of The People?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Via The Zman blog,

There has never been a time when normal people did not know the media was biased and biased in a predictable direction. For every non-liberal in the media, there were at least ten liberals. The ratio was probably higher, but then, as now, some lefties liked to pretend they were independents or some third option.

The media used to invest a lot of time denying they had a bias and an agenda, but the only people who believed them were on the Left, which had the odd effect of confirming they had a bias and an agenda.


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Phil's Favorites

A 2019 Earnings Recession?


A 2019 Earnings Recession?

Courtesy of 

Shout to Leigh!

On the new Talk Your Book – Josh Brown is joined by Leigh Drogen of Estimize, one of the leading providers of crowdsourced financial and economic data to talk about the trend in corporate profits that could potentially lead to an earnings recession later this year.

What is the thing that Leigh is seeing in the data that Wall Street isn’t yet picking up on? What segment of the stock market is most at risk? Why is the crowd smarter than the narrow consensus of Wall Street analysts?

Check out Estimize ...

more from Ilene


D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold & Silver Testing Important Breakout Levels!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Gold and Silver from a long-term perspective have created a series of lower highs over the past 8-years. Will 2019 bring a change to this trend? A big test is in play!

Gold since the lows in 2016 has created a series of higher lows, while Silver may have created a double bottom.

Gold & Silver are currently facing break attempts a (1) and (2). These falling resistance lines have disappointed metals bulls for the past few years.

The direction of Gold and Silver weeks and months from now should be highly influenced by what each does as they are attempting to break above important resistance levels.

To become a member of Kimbl...

more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ... more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Russia Prepares To Buy Up To $10 Billion In Bitcoin To Evade US Sanctions

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

While the market has been increasingly focused on the rising headwinds in the global economy in general, and China's economic slowdown in particular, while the media is obsessing over daily revelations that Trump may or may not have colluded with Russia to get elected, a far more critical, if underreported, shift has been taking place over the past year.

As we reported in June, whether due to concerns over draconian western sanctions and asset confiscations following the poisoning of former Russian military officer Sergei Skripal, or simply because it wanted to diversify away from the dollar, Russia liquidated virtually all of its Treasury holdings in the late spri...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...

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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn


Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's failure based on his personality, which was evident years ago. This article, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump became president, in July, 2016, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...

more from Our Members


Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.


more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...

more from M.T.M.


Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

more from OpTrader


Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>