Archive for 2014

Sector Detector: Stocks find blue skies while economy deals with inclement weather

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Scott MartindaleFacing formidable resistance and the threat of an ominous triple-top sell signal if bulls lost their battle, U.S. stocks appear to have successfully navigated a critical crossroads by finding the wherewithal to break out to new highs, with blue skies above. Among the ten U.S. business sectors, the performance leaders last week were Consumer Services, Consumer Goods, Industrial, and Financial. Now the question is whether stocks can confirm the nascent breakout in the face of yet another new crop of global and domestic challenges. “Inclement weather” has been both real and metaphorical, and both are impacting the economy.

Internationally, China just reported that their official non-manufacturing (i.e., services) PMI rose to 55.0, which should help alleviate some of the concern about an economic slowdown there. However, after conducting a successful Winter Olympics while preventing a devastating terrorist incident, Russian President Putin has now turned Ukraine’s internal struggle over their future direction into a major international incident. Secretary of State Kerry said that the G8 countries were prepared to isolate Russia economically, including bans of travel visas, freezes on assets, and limitations on trade.

Domestically, the severe weather that has hamstrung much of the country for months has now sucked final holdout California into the maelstrom, with torrential rains and mudslides — as well as powerful waves that did a good bit of damage to some of the popular beachside restaurants here in Santa Barbara.

However, as spring emerges and the clouds clear, there will be a lot of catching up to do, particularly in the housing industry, which bodes well for GDP growth. Also, the Fed remains accommodative, and in fact, with inflation still exceedingly (and for the Fed, uncomfortably) low, there’s a chance further tapering might be slowed until the economy shows it is indeed ready to roll post-winter. Note that Treasury yields continue to fall.

Furthermore, short interest remains high, which has been consistently supportive of the bull market so far. It is reflective of a cautious market that is hedged for downside. Market breadth has been strong. Corporate profits, stock buybacks, and M&A activity are robust, and cash is plentiful. On the other hand, revenue growth and hiring is still slow, stock buybacks don’t boost GDP, and much of the M&A is for intellectual property with uncertain payout — witness the Facebook (FB)…
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Comment by strether

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  1. strether


    From SA tonight.

    This one chart says it all. Strether

Comment by yodi

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  1. yodi

    Bounce first you need to get Obama off the air

Comment by biodieselchris

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  1. biodieselchris

    rpme –  LOLZ – "Elon can walk on water apparently"

Comment by Maya1

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  1. Maya1


    Very right!

    Most people forget that the news of Icahn being involved that surfaced last week, is really stale news.

    He was buying under 400….now telling everyone so that the price can be driven up, to dump…

Comment by shadowfax

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  1. shadowfax

    I hope all in AAPL remember that their present budy Carl was a corporate raider. He bought at $400 and for a while he will try to get it to $550 or $600 but if anything goes against him he will drop it like a rock off a cliff. If we get a major correction his selling could cause a new low. What if the mad man doesn't have a good dinner in September?

Comment by Pharmboy

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  1. Pharmboy

    And we have lift off….what a joke.

Comment by Phil

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  1. Phil

     Europe closed flat.  

    Gold/Yodi – I know it is subject to short-term runs as people flee to safety but let’s say 30 people are on the floor of an office building and there’s a small fire in the copy room so they all run into an elevator that has a capacity for 12 people.  Is the elevator safe?  Certainly, historically, it has taken many people safely downstairs and it does seem safer to go downstairs than to stay on the same floor as a fire, even a small one but there does get to be a point, perhaps once you get past 20 people in the elevator, where the elevator becomes more dangerous than staying put.  By the 25th person, you probably have more chance of dying in the elevator than even a bigger fire would pose and by 30 people, some are almost certain to be crushed and suffocated, even if the whole thing doesn’t crash – killing them all.  I’d say gold is somewhere between 20 and 30 people at this point and more people are getting on board every day…

    PM/IKdubbs – Portfolio Margin - not a toy!  

    Dollar fully recovered to yesterday afternoon and markets pretty much back as well.  At least that makes sense.  Gold, copper and silver keeping their gains .  Silver popped $30 and no one is saying anything.   

    SLW is outperforming SLV by 60% this year so I like shorting them better than shorting silver because silver doesn’t have the production scalability that gold does so there is no reason for a miner to drastically outperform the metal .  SLW Feb $35 puts at $1.35 were over $2 on Friday so I like them for a quick 20% gain.  

Comment by shadowfax

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  1. shadowfax

    I have 3 IWM levels 77.08 77.52 78.05
    I’m no JRW but we are in this range now

Comment by stjeanluc

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  1. stjeanluc

    Oil Lines

    R3 – 93.84
    R2 – 91.53
    R1 – 90.04
    PP – 87.73
    S1 – 86.24
    S2 – 83.93
    S3 – 82.44

    Yesterday's high and low – 89.22 / 85.42


Zero Hedge

World Trade War I: US Asks South Korea To Join Anti-Huawei Campaign

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The bilateral trade war between the US and China is gradually becoming a global trade war of global geopolitical and commercial dominance between the US and Chinese spheres of influence.

Shortly after the two largest mobile phone companies in the UK decided against launching Huawei-built 5G phones this morning, and roughly around the time a bevy of Japanese tech and telecom companies including ARM Holdings, Panasonic and SoftBank all imposed a boycott on supplying Huawei with mission critical components joining Australia, and New Zealand as major US allies to end commercial relat...

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Phil's Favorites

Overpriced tech IPOs sell grand visions but aren't worth their valuations


Overpriced tech IPOs sell grand visions but aren't worth their valuations

rblfmr /

Courtesy of John Colley, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

The year of the tech IPO is 2019. Uber went public on May 10 with a US$82.4 billion valuation. Fellow ride-sharing app Lyft floated in March with a U$24 billion valuation and Pinterest had a US$10 billion IPO in April...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Emerging Markets About To Submerge If 3-Year Support Breaks?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Are Emerging Markets about to “Submerge” and head a good deal lower? What they do at (3) will go a long way in answering this question!

Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has been lagging the broad market for the past 15-months. They hit their 50% retracement level of the last year’s highs and lows and falling resistance at (2) recently. The weakness of last has EEM trading below its 200-MA line.

EEM has spent the majority of the past 3-years inside of rising channel (1), which reflects that this trend remains up. The weakness of late has it testing the bo...

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Insider Scoop

Amgen To Buy Danish Collaborator Nuevolution For $167M

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) took a logical step forward in buying a preclinical biotech it has been collaborating with since 2016. 

What Happened

Amgen announced Wednesday an agreement to buy Copenhagen-based Nuevolution for $167 million.

Th... more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.


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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control


Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...

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DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University


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More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism


The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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