Archive for 2014

Sector Detector: Stocks find blue skies while economy deals with inclement weather

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Scott MartindaleFacing formidable resistance and the threat of an ominous triple-top sell signal if bulls lost their battle, U.S. stocks appear to have successfully navigated a critical crossroads by finding the wherewithal to break out to new highs, with blue skies above. Among the ten U.S. business sectors, the performance leaders last week were Consumer Services, Consumer Goods, Industrial, and Financial. Now the question is whether stocks can confirm the nascent breakout in the face of yet another new crop of global and domestic challenges. “Inclement weather” has been both real and metaphorical, and both are impacting the economy.

Internationally, China just reported that their official non-manufacturing (i.e., services) PMI rose to 55.0, which should help alleviate some of the concern about an economic slowdown there. However, after conducting a successful Winter Olympics while preventing a devastating terrorist incident, Russian President Putin has now turned Ukraine’s internal struggle over their future direction into a major international incident. Secretary of State Kerry said that the G8 countries were prepared to isolate Russia economically, including bans of travel visas, freezes on assets, and limitations on trade.

Domestically, the severe weather that has hamstrung much of the country for months has now sucked final holdout California into the maelstrom, with torrential rains and mudslides — as well as powerful waves that did a good bit of damage to some of the popular beachside restaurants here in Santa Barbara.

However, as spring emerges and the clouds clear, there will be a lot of catching up to do, particularly in the housing industry, which bodes well for GDP growth. Also, the Fed remains accommodative, and in fact, with inflation still exceedingly (and for the Fed, uncomfortably) low, there’s a chance further tapering might be slowed until the economy shows it is indeed ready to roll post-winter. Note that Treasury yields continue to fall.

Furthermore, short interest remains high, which has been consistently supportive of the bull market so far. It is reflective of a cautious market that is hedged for downside. Market breadth has been strong. Corporate profits, stock buybacks, and M&A activity are robust, and cash is plentiful. On the other hand, revenue growth and hiring is still slow, stock buybacks don’t boost GDP, and much of the M&A is for intellectual property with uncertain payout — witness the Facebook (FB)…
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Comment by strether

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  1. strether


    From SA tonight.

    This one chart says it all. Strether

Comment by yodi

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  1. yodi

    Bounce first you need to get Obama off the air

Comment by biodieselchris

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  1. biodieselchris

    rpme –  LOLZ – "Elon can walk on water apparently"

Comment by Maya1

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  1. Maya1


    Very right!

    Most people forget that the news of Icahn being involved that surfaced last week, is really stale news.

    He was buying under 400….now telling everyone so that the price can be driven up, to dump…

Comment by shadowfax

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  1. shadowfax

    I hope all in AAPL remember that their present budy Carl was a corporate raider. He bought at $400 and for a while he will try to get it to $550 or $600 but if anything goes against him he will drop it like a rock off a cliff. If we get a major correction his selling could cause a new low. What if the mad man doesn't have a good dinner in September?

Comment by Pharmboy

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  1. Pharmboy

    And we have lift off….what a joke.

Comment by Phil

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  1. Phil

     Europe closed flat.  

    Gold/Yodi – I know it is subject to short-term runs as people flee to safety but let’s say 30 people are on the floor of an office building and there’s a small fire in the copy room so they all run into an elevator that has a capacity for 12 people.  Is the elevator safe?  Certainly, historically, it has taken many people safely downstairs and it does seem safer to go downstairs than to stay on the same floor as a fire, even a small one but there does get to be a point, perhaps once you get past 20 people in the elevator, where the elevator becomes more dangerous than staying put.  By the 25th person, you probably have more chance of dying in the elevator than even a bigger fire would pose and by 30 people, some are almost certain to be crushed and suffocated, even if the whole thing doesn’t crash – killing them all.  I’d say gold is somewhere between 20 and 30 people at this point and more people are getting on board every day…

    PM/IKdubbs – Portfolio Margin - not a toy!  

    Dollar fully recovered to yesterday afternoon and markets pretty much back as well.  At least that makes sense.  Gold, copper and silver keeping their gains .  Silver popped $30 and no one is saying anything.   

    SLW is outperforming SLV by 60% this year so I like shorting them better than shorting silver because silver doesn’t have the production scalability that gold does so there is no reason for a miner to drastically outperform the metal .  SLW Feb $35 puts at $1.35 were over $2 on Friday so I like them for a quick 20% gain.  

Comment by shadowfax

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  1. shadowfax

    I have 3 IWM levels 77.08 77.52 78.05
    I’m no JRW but we are in this range now

Comment by stjeanluc

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  1. stjeanluc

    Oil Lines

    R3 – 93.84
    R2 – 91.53
    R1 – 90.04
    PP – 87.73
    S1 – 86.24
    S2 – 83.93
    S3 – 82.44

    Yesterday's high and low – 89.22 / 85.42


Zero Hedge

Americans' Economic Hope Has Collapsed

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Which came first, the confidence or the stock market rally?

One thing is for sure, the crash in stocks in December has crushed the hope of Americans that their economic future is going to be better under President Trump.

Overall confidence dipped to 58.1 - a 4-month low, but, U.S. consumers this month were the most downbeat on the economy since November 2016, a third straight drop after expectations reached a 16-year high just three months earlier, as the partial government shutdown wears on toward a fourth week.


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Triple Breakout Test In Play For S&P 500!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the rally of late about to run out of steam or is a major breakout about to take place in the S&P 500? What happens at current prices should go a long way in determining this question.

This chart looks at the equal weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) on a daily basis over the past 15-months.

The rally from the lows on Christmas Eve has RSP testing the top of a newly formed falling channel while testing the underneath side of the 2018 trading range and its falling 50-day moving average at (1).

At this time RPS is facing a triple resistance test. Wil...

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Phil's Favorites

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?


Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

Courtesy of Victoria Honeyman, University of Leeds

As the clock ticks down to March 29 2019, all of the political manoeuvring, negotiating, arguing and fighting is coming to a peak. In the two and a half years since the 2016 EU referendum, views on both sides have hardened and agreement still seems as far away as it was the day after the referendum.

With Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement disliked by all sides, and voted down by an unprecedented majority in the House of Commons, everyone is wondering what can and should be done next?


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Digital Currencies

Crypto-Bubble: Will Bitcoin Bottom In February Or Has It Already?

Courtesy of Michelle Jones via

The new year has been relatively good for the price of bitcoin after a spectacular collapse of the cryptocurrency bubble in 2018. It’s up notably since the middle of December and traded around the psychological level of $4,000... so is this a sign that the crypto market is about to recover?

Of course, it depends on who you ask, but one analyst discovered a pattern which might point to a bottom next month.

A year after the cryptocurrency bubble popped


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D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...

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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ... more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...

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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn


Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...

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Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.


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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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