Archive for January, 2015

Caught On Tape: Dijsselbloem To Varoufakis: “You Just Killed The Troika”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Amid 'turmoiling' stock markets on Friday, CNBC's Simon Hobbs summed up the status quo's thinking on the new Greek leadership when he noted, somewhat angrily and shocked, "The Greeks are not even trying to reassure the markets," seeming to have entirely forgotten (and who can blame him in this new normal the world has been force-fed for 6 years) that political leaders are elected for the good of the people (by the people) not for the markets. Yesterday saw the clearest example yet of Europe's anger that the Greeks may choose their own path as opposed to following the EU's non-sovereign leadership's demands when the most uncomfortable moment ever caught on tape – the moment when Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem (he of the "template" foot in mouth disease) stood up at the end of the EU-Greece press conference, awkwardly shook hands with Greece's new finance minister, and whispered…"you have just killed the Troika," to which Varoufakis responded… "wow!"

As Keep Talking Greece reports,

The joint press conference was concluding, when Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis droped a last bombshell.  “…and with this if you want – and according to European Parliament – flimsily-constructed committee we have no aim to cooperate. Thank you.” Varoufakis was referring to the famous Troika, the country’s official creditors consisting of the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank..

After concluding with a “Thank you” Varoufakis gives the word to Eurogroup Chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who wants to hear the translation first. Then he takes off the ear phones, he stands up and sets to leave. An enforced-looking shaking of hands delays the  departure of the Dutch FinMin.

Dijsselbloem quickly whispers something to Varoufakis’ ear, he briefly replies back and the Eurogroup chief leaves the press conference hall as soon as it was possible.

Video: the Awkward Greek-Eurogroup Moment

The whole afternoon, Greek and international media were trying to find out “What the hell did they two men said to each other!?”

Private Mega TV reported short before 9 pm on Friday.

Eurogroup chief whispered to Greek FinMin’s  ear “You just killed the Troika” and that Varoufakis replied with a simple “WOW!”

Dijsselbloem: Whisper…whisper…

Varoufakis: Whisper….

Dijsselbloom slides his hand away

Back remains Varoufakis with one palm open and the left…
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Cowen Analyst Likes Intercept Pharmaceuticals, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals And Raptor Pharmaceutical

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related ICPT
Mid-Afternoon Market Update: Crude Oil Jumps 7.5%; Visa Shares Climb On Earnings Beat
Intercept Pharmaceuticals Soars 20%, Possible Short Squeeze
Intercept Pharmaceuticals' OCA Now Breakthrough Therapy – Analyst Blog (Zacks)

Related ACAD
Biotechs Presenting At The J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference: Day 2
Benzinga's Top Initiations
Qiagen (QGEN) Disappoints with Q4 Earnings, Revenue Miss – Analyst Blog (Zacks)

Speaking on CNBC’s Fast Money, Ritu Baral of Cowen and Company said that Intercept Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: ICPT) is a buy. The company has received a breakthrough status by the FDA and it is about to start a phase 3 in the NASH program, said Baral. She added that we are going to see a filing for a lead program that has a potential to get approved by the FDA at the end of 2015 or early 2016.

She likes ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ACAD) because of Parkinson’s psychosis treatment, which has a billion plus market. It has a breakthrough status by the FDA and the company has been a topic in numerous acquisition discussions.

Baral is bullish on Raptor Pharmaceutical Corp. (NASDAQ: RPTP). The stock has been struggling recently because of the weak Q4, but Baral thinks that the catalyst for this stock will come in May when the data of pediatric NASH program gets released.

Latest Ratings for ICPT

Date Firm Action From To
Jan 2015 Deutsche Bank Maintains Buy
Dec 2014 Citigroup Maintains Buy
Dec 2014 Bank of America Reinstates Buy

View More Analyst Ratings for ICPT
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Cowen and Company Ritu BaralAnalyst Color CNBC Analyst Ratings Media





The German 10 Year Bund Effectively a Call Option at 30 Basis Points

Courtesy of EconMatters

Bonds are not Stocks

On Friday the German 10 Year Bund yield touched the 0.30 mark or 30 basis points, yeah that`s right the same instrument that was yielding 90 basis points in November of last year, a 140 basis points last May 2014, and 195 basis points at the beginning of 2014. It has gotten so ridiculous in the bond markets that I think investors have forgotten what bonds actually are as an asset class, they trade based on price appreciation like stocks, and this perverted mentality has completely ignored the risk component of what bonds represent as debt obligations.   

German Core CPI expected to be 1.1% in 2015

But the case of the German 10 year Bund has gotten so idiotic that all finance logic has been thrown out the window. Excluding food and energy, consumer prices are expected to increase by 1.1 percent year on year in Germany for 2015. Yes energy has dropped 50% and so the comps are skewing everyone`s inflation readings to the downside, this is the rationale for focusing on the core inflation readings historically because of the high volatility of these two categories. Once the bad year over year comps start coming out of the energy components all the inflation readings will start spiking up again late next year, but remember the German Bund yielding 30 basis points is for the duration of 10 years, not 3 months!


Bund Yields in the Financial Crisis

There is talk about slow growth in Europe responsible for these low yields, but during the financial crisis of 2008/2009 the German 10 year yield was between 3% and 4%, and this was a time of the global recession where oil was trading as low as $33 a barrel, things were much worse during the financial crisis compared to today.

ZIRP is the Elephant in the Room

The real reason the German 10 year yield has dropped so dramatically is the abundance of cheap money in the financial system, all the big financial institutions are basically borrowing at ZIRP levels from government central banks, levering up their balance sheets, and taking


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Socialist Exceptionalism

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

“In the minds of the statists, “Government Works Better” and ‘things’ work at the surface; but at the core, it’s a disaster… The Americans that look to the government to ‘save’ them – and even gleefully thank the government for helping bail them out – fail to realize that it was the government that f##ked them in the first place…”

Simply put, “debt-financed socialism and corporatism isn’t working” and a day of reckoning is coming…





How Ukraine Can Save China From Its Existential Threat (Spoiler Alert: Girls)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In China last year, just over 115 boys were born for every 100 girls, and since sonogram technology was introduced to China in the 1980s – allowing families to determine a baby’s gender during the first few months of pregnancy – the gender imbalance in the world's largest economy has grown colossal. However, as Beijing News recently explained, there may be a solution for China's 34 million woman shortfall… Ukrainian women, as "their economy is depressed but beautiful women are running rampant." While Foreign Policy notes that the best destinations for Chinese men to find spouses are Japan and South Korea, there appears to be plenty of fish in the sea, at least outside China. Oh the wonders of Ricardian comparative advantage – Ukraine needs an export business (and produces – from what we have heard – attractive women) and China needs to import 'women' (to fill its massive shortfall). Global economic growth problems, solved…

As Foreign Policy reports,

"Their economy is depressed but beautiful women are running rampant,” the state-run Beijing News reported Jan. 22 in a story suggesting that Ukrainian women could be the solution to China’s woman shortage. The piece, illustrated with charts, bubbles, and cartoon illustrations of lonely Chinese men, was a breezy attempt to make light of China’s missing women and the severe gender imbalance caused by couples aborting female fetuses in favor of boys. So widespread is the practice that it has badly skewed the country’s sex ratio: The global average is around 105 boys born for every 100 girls; but in China last year, just over 115 boys were born for every 100 girls.

The problem has been brewing since sonogram technology was introduced to China in the 1980s, allowing families to determine a baby’s gender during the first few months of pregnancy. Combined with the country’s restrictive family-planning policies — until recently, most urban families were only allowed a single child in order to curtail population growth — and a traditional preference for sons, the newfound ability to practice sex-selective abortion has resulted in one of the world’s highest gender imbalances. The topic flared anew in the public mind after the National Bureau of Statistics announced the latest population figures on Jan. 20, noting that at the end of 2014 China had 701 million men


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What Do They Know? Why Are So Many Of The Super Wealthy Preparing Bug Out Locations?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

A lot of ultra-rich people are quietly preparing to “bug out” when the time comes.  They are buying survival properties, they are buying farms in far away countries and they are buying deep underground bunkers.  In fact, a prominent insider at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland says that “very powerful people are telling us they’re scared” and he shocked his audience when he revealed that he knows “hedge fund managers all over the world who are buying airstrips and farms in places like New Zealand”.

So what do they know?  Why are so many of the super wealthy suddenly preparing bug out locations?  When the elite of the world start preparing for doomsday, that is a very troubling sign.  And right now the elite appear to be quietly preparing for disaster like never before.

The insider that I mentioned above is named Robert Johnson.  He is the president of the Institute of New Economic Thinking, and what he recently told a packed audience in Davos is making headlines all over the planet

With growing inequality and the civil unrest from Ferguson and the Occupy protests fresh in people’s mind, the world’s super rich are already preparing for the consequences. At a packed session in Davos, former hedge fund director Robert Johnson revealed that worried hedge fund managers were already planning their escapes. “I know hedge fund managers all over the world who are buying airstrips and farms in places like New Zealand because they think they need a getaway,” he said.

But he didn’t stop there.

In a separate interview, Johnson admitted that “very powerful people are telling us they’re scared” and that the elite “see increasing evidence of social instability and violence”.  You can watch video of the entire interview below…

Wow.

And Johnson is not the only one saying these things.

The following quote comes from the Mirror

His comments were backed up by Stewart Wallis, executive director of the New Economics Foundation, who when asked about the comments told CNBC Africa: “Getaway cars the airstrips in New Zealand and all that sort of thing,


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16% Of Global Government Bonds Now Have A Negative Yield: Here Is Who’s Buying It

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

A week ago many were surprised to learn that in his attempt to “fight deflation”, the ECB’s Mario Draghi unleashed the biggest deflationary wave of all time, when in the aftermath of the ECB’s NIRP policy, and subsequently QE, an unprecedented €1.4 trillion in European debt with a maturity of more than 1 year traded down to subzero, as in negative, yields.

But what happens if one expands the Eurozone NIRP universe to include the debt of other countries including Japan, Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland and so on? Conveniently, JPM has done the analysis and finds that a mindblowing $3.6 trillion of government debt traded with a negative yield as recently as last week. This represents 16% of the JPM Global Government Bond Index, or in other words nearly a fifth of all global government debt is now trading with a negative yield, meaning investors pay sovereigns, using other people’s money of course, for the privilege of buying their issuance!

JPM’s full take:

There is currently €1.5tr or $1.7tr of Euro area government bonds of greater than one year maturity trading with negative nominal yields, almost all of them of core euro governments of up to 5 years maturity. This figure rises to $1.8tr if one adds $16bn of Swedish, $60bn of Swiss and $45bn of Danish government bonds currently trading with a negative yield. Almost all Japanese government bonds are trading with positive yields this week, but last week around $1.8tr of them were trading with a negative yield. So the total universe of government bonds traded with a negative yield was $3.6tr last week or 16% of the JPM Global Government Bond Index.

The logical follow up question: as the entire world appears slowly but surely headed to a uniform NIRP platform, where every single sovereign’s debt will have a negative yield thanks to one or more central banks’ guarantees that said debt will be monetized no matter what (those curious what happens when there is even a faint doubt if a given nation’s Treasurys won’t be backstopped and purchased by a central bank, just look at what happened to Greek bonds this past week), why do investors keep dumping their cash in securities that have a negative carry?

Here again courtesy of JPM’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou,…
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Diving Into the GDP Report – Some Ominous Trends – Yellen Yap – Decoupling or Not?

Courtesy of Mish.

Yellen Yap

On Thursday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen met with Senate Democrats at a private luncheon. She told the Democrats that the U.S. Economy is Strong.

My first thought was “what the heck is Yellen doing holding a private lunch with Democrats only?” Had she met with Senate Republicans, I would have asked the same question.

Apparently this is common procedure for Yellen, so perhaps I am reading too much into it.

Yet, I cannot help wondering if the real purpose of the meeting was to persuade Democrats to block any “Audit the Fed” Initiatives.

Glowing Report

Regardless of the reason, Yellen had some pretty glowing things to say.

“She went through the issues of unemployment and inflation. Very positive. And economic growth numbers were good, have been good. There’s work to be done,” Sen. Richard Durbin (D-Ill.) said after the luncheon.

No Rate Hike Soon

Bloomberg reported Yellen Tells Senators No Rate Rise Soon Amid Concerns Abroad.

“Her message is that the economy’s getting better but there’s still a ways to go in terms of job creation,” New York Senator Charles Schumer said today in an interview on Capitol Hill. “That worry seems, in her mind, to be paramount and that’s why she is not going to raise rates immediately.”

The Fed upgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy in a statement on Wednesday after a meeting of its policy-setting committee, while adding a reference to “international developments” which investors took as a sign of mounting worry about weakness overseas. …



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“King Dollar” Is Crushing ‘Recovery’Dreams, 87% Of US Companies Have Guided Lower

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The 'souring' of the mother's milk of stock markets continues. Management guidance and commentary implies 3-5pp impact due to 'king dollar' FX headwinds as an astounding 87% of companies guided below consensus expectations for next quarter. Bottom-up consensus 2015 EPS estimates were cut by 4% during January, and, as Goldman Sachs warns, 4Q EPS is tracking 7% below the consensus estimate at the start of reporting season. Finally, and perhaps most worrisome, granular bottom-up consensus is below top-down 'strategist' consensus for the first time since 2009… as the gap between Forward P/E valuations and long-term growth is as wide as it has ever been.

"King Dollar" is not 'unambiguously good' for America…

Revenue results are correlated to dollar strengthening, which has led to weaker revenue results and lower forward guidance that incorporates the FX headwind.

Anecdotally, management commentary implies the dollar strengthening will lower revenue growth by 300-500 bp. Foreign sales accounted for 33% of aggregate revenue for the S&P 500 in 2013.

Based on our earnings model, a 10% strengthening of the trade-weighted dollar lowers S&P 500 2015 EPS by about $3.

Bottom-up Consensus 2015 EPS is tumbling…

An astounding 87% of companies (39 of 45) guided below consensus expectations for next quarter, the highest level in our 34-quarter history. Historically, 71% of firms guide down in a typical quarter.

Full-year 2015 guidance also disappointed. 80% of firms guided earnings below consensus.

The median company guided 4% below consensus expectations for 1Q 2015 and 2% below consensus for full-year 2015.

Bottom-up consensus 2015 EPS estimates plummeted by 4% during January due to both falling oil prices and negative company guidance.

The $4.50 decline in EPS to $120.50 from $125 now places bottom-up consensus estimates below our forecast of $122 and the top-down consensus forecast of $125. Bottom-up consensus estimates were last below top-down estimates in 2009.

And finally – valuations…

Consensus long-term growth estimates are slumping… whch means multiple expansion is the only way to keep the dream of wealth creation alive. As @Not_Jim_Cramer exposes, this 'gap' has seldom – if ever – been wider…

*  *  *





It’s Greece vs. Wall Street

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth


DPC Grand Central Station and Hotel Manhattan, NY 1903

On the one hand, I’ve written so much about Greece lately I fear I’m reaching overkill. On the other hand, there’s so much going on with Greece, and so fast, that I wouldn’t know here to begin. Moreover, I’m thinking and trying to figure what is what and what is actually happening so much it’s hard to stay focused for more than a short while before something else happens again and it all starts all over. And I’m thinking it must feel that way for the Syriza guys as well.

One thing I do increasingly ponder is that it gets ever harder to see the eurozone survive. In its present shape and form, that is. Damned if you do, doomed if you don’t, is an expression I’ve used before. It’s like this big experiment that a bunch of power hungry Europeans really get off on, that now all of a sudden is confronted with the democracy they all only thought existed in books of history anymore.

But if you take your blind hunger far enough to kill people, or ‘only’ condemn them to lives of misery, they will eventually try to speak up, even if not nearly soon enough. It’s like a law of physics, or like Icarus in, yes, Greek mythology: try to reach too high, and you’ll find you can’t.

What is Brussels supposed to do now? Throw Athens off a cliff? Not respect the voice of the Greek people? That doesn’t really rhyme with the ideals of the union, does it? If they want to keep the euro going, they’re going to have to give in to a probably substantial part of what Syriza is looking for. Or Greece will leave the eurozone, and bust it wide open, exposing its failures, its lack of coherence, and especially its lack of democratic and moral values.

The problem with giving in, though, is that there are large protest demonstrations in Spain and Italy too. Give anything at all to Greece, and the EU won’t be able to avoid giving it to others as well. And by then you’re talking real money.

They called it upon themselves. They got too…
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Phil's Favorites

The American GI in WWII, uncensored

 

The American GI in WWII, uncensored

Pfc Elias Friedensohn in June 1945 at the Special Services Distributing Point, Seine Section, Paris, France. National Archives

Courtesy of Edward Gitre, Virginia Tech

I can still recall the exhilaration I felt in the reading room of the National Archives in College Park, Maryland.

It was mid-April 2009. I was scrolling through roll after microfilm roll of the War Department’s “Opinion Surveys Relating to the Morale of U.S. Army Personnel.”

What I had discovered were tens of thousands of statements writte...



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Zero Hedge

The Bulls Continue To Bet On The Fed

Courtesy of Lance Roberts, RealInvestmentAdvice.com

Over the last several weeks, we have been discussing the potential for a market correction simply due to divergences in the technical indicators which suggested near-term market risk outweighed the reward. As is generally the case, bonds have been warning the bullish bias of equity investors was likely misplaced. I have updated last week’s chart for reference.

The increase in risks has had us rotating exposure in our portfolios to a more defensive tilt. We previously trimmed back our overweight exposure to Technology, Then, two weeks ago, we noted...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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