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How to Make $100,000 In 12 Months Trading Stocks, Options and Futures

You're here to make money, right?  

We do a lot of educational posts on various topics but, once in a while it's a good idea to put these concepts to some kind of practical use.  Recently we discussed "How to Get Rich Slowly" and, in that post, we talked about the great value of making a consistent 20% annual return and, to start the year off, we've put up over 20 long-term trade ideas for our Members in our Live Chat Room, as well as some in our Top Trade Alerts (Members Only). 

Our entire Long-Term Portfolio was up 20% last year, as was our Income Portfolio when we closed it and our smaller, Short-Term Portfolio managed to bring that net up over 25% for the year.  As always, our goal is to make 20% a year and it's OK not to make 20% EVERY year, what you really want to avoid is losing money.  Warren Buffett wasn't a famous investor in 1965 – or 1975 for that matter and, in fact, 1973 and 1974 were poor years for Berkshire – but they avoided losses – and that's the key!  

Buffett is also a value investor who plays the slow and steady game in accumulating wealth.  Not every year is going to be a big winner and not every year will beat the S&P because we HEDGE our bets and the same hedges that stop you from losing too much on the way down, stop you from winning too much on the way up.  That's OK though, because it's the CONSISTENCY that makes you rich.  While virtually unknown in 1975, by 1985 Warren Buffett was known as one of the greatest investors of all time.  

Why is that?  Did he do anything different?  No, not at all.  What Buffett did was simply to continue to grind out those wins and let the magic of compound returns do the rest of the work for him.  As you can see from the chart on the left, even making 20% for 10 years doesn't seem that dramatic (500% total gain, avg 50% a year) but, give it 10 more years and you have a 3,700% gain, averaging almost 200% a year.

Our goal for 2015, at Philstockworld, is to teach you to embrace the concept of getting rich slowly and, to do that, I need you to understand how PAINFUL that process seems in the early stages.  Because our long-term trades take a long time to resolve themselves, 90% of the time we end up discussing short-term trades – even Futures trading, but these are FUN trades we do while we wait for our major, long-term trades to pay off – they are NOT the point of this site.  Never lose sight of that!  

That being said, rather than do a trade review for the first time this year (which only our Members could see), I'm going to start the year off reviewing the review we did last year, on December 15th, to illustrate how these "boring" trades work once you give them a bit of time.  

The trade ideas featured were from October (we're always a month or two behind) and I'm only going to pull the trades which had at least 6 months left at the time (12/15) starting from the entry any FREE READER could have picked up from reading the review – even after missing the initial gains our Members benefited from.  So we're using the 12/15/13 prices, NOT our initial entries.  And let's say, for arguments' sake, we put $10,000 cash into each trade for diversity.  

  • 60 TASR 2015 $12 puts short at $1.50 ($9,000), now $60 – up $8,940 (99%)
  • 26 DDD 2015 $45 puts sold for $3.80 ($9,880), now $12.50 – down $32,500 (328%)
  • 1,400 NLY at $9.94, selling 2015 $10 puts and calls for $2.70 for net $7.24/8.62 ($10,136), now $10 – up $5, 264 (55%)
  • 1,000 AA at $9.51 ($9,510), now $16.11 – up $6,600 (69%)
  • 6 AAPL 2016 $350 puts sold for $16.70 ($10,020), now $240 – up $9,780 (97%)
  • 2 Oil Futures short at $103.50 ($9,000 margin), now $48.21 – up $110,580 (1,228%)
  • 50 INTC 2016 $18/25 bull call spread, selling $20 puts for net $2.05 ($10,250), now $6.34 – up $31,700 (309%)
  • 120 F 2015 10/15 bull call spread, selling 1/2 Jan $16 calls for $1.33 for net .85 ($10,200), now $5 – up $49,800 (488%)
  • 14 (post-split) AAPL 2015 $67.14/85.71 bull call spreads, selling 2016 $50 puts for net $6.47 ($9,058), now $18.17 – up $16,380 (180%)
  • 2,400 LACO at $4.18 ($10,032), now $6.85 – up $6,408 (64%)
  • 3 ISRG 2016 $290 puts sold for $31.90 ($9,570), now $3.50 – up $8,520 (89%)
  • 5 TSLA 2015 $190 calls sold for $19 ($9,500), now $18 – up $500 (5%)

So there's 11 long-term trade ideas (not including our Futures play on oil) from a single post covering a 2-week trading period that turned $110,000(ish) into $221,392 – up $111,392 (101%) on cash less than 13 months later.  Our Futures play alone on oil, had you stuck with it straight through, would have added another $110,580 to that pile.  That's without stopping out the lone loser or making ANY adjustments all year long!  

As I noted above, we didn't make 100% because we hedged our bets to make sure we didn't lose (as well as margin limitations) but, as long as we fill our Long-Term Portfolio with trades that have this kind of upside potential, we have a very good chance of putting in a strong performance year after year – like Buffett!  Those gains then compound over time and, over the long run, this trading strategy will outperform short-term traders – even those who do, occasionally, post triple-digit returns.  

It was no accident that we picked AAPL twice in two weeks – after all, it was our 2014 Trade of the Year and it just so happens to be our 2015 Trade of the Year yet again (why not, when you can make so much money on it?).  Here I am on TV discussing it on Money Talk with Kim Parlee:

That trade will take 2 years to fully resolve but our 2013 Trade of the Year (yes, AAPL again!), was up 614% for those who were patient enough to wait until 2015 to cash out and our 2014 Trade of the Year is well on it's way to a better than 500% gain so PATIENCE is what I want to teach you in 2015 – plant those trees and then BE PATIENT – good things really do come to those who wait.

We will have dozens of other long-term opportunities for you in our Live Member Chat Room as well as our Top Trades Alerts throughout the year.  Earnings season is upon us and we are bound to find plenty of good stocks going on sale, which will present us with both long and short-term opportunities – this is always my favorite time of year!

Wishing you a very healthy and prosperous 2015.

All the best, 

- Phil

 


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  1. From Bloomberg, Jan 11, 2015, 10:33:36 AM


    A reading from the book of Francis.

    In the Reagan era, conservative Republicans felt they had a powerful ally in Pope John Paul II, whose forceful anti-communism and anti-abortion stances played out in American politics.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1xRC6bN

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  2. From Bloomberg, Jan 11, 2015, 1:13:01 PM


    Flemming Ornskov, chief executive officer of Shire Plc, said in November that the company was revisiting some of the deals it was considering before AbbVie Inc.’s abandoned $52 billion takeover. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

    Shire Plc (SHP), the drugmaker seeking to boost growth after its proposed sale to AbbVie Inc. collapsed, agreed to acquire NPS Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NPSP) for about $5.2 billion to add medicines used to treat rare diseases.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1DyfLUg

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  3. From Bloomberg, Jan 11, 2015, 11:40:11 AM


    Billionaire John Paulson’s Advantage Plus Fund fell 36 percent last year after a 3.1 percent loss in December, two people with knowledge of the returns said. Photographer: Jin Lee/Bloomberg

    Billionaire John Paulson posted 2014 losses in most of his hedge funds after wrong-way bets on energy securities added to declines from a failed merger and investments in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1DyhgSp

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  4. From Bloomberg, Jan 11, 2015, 11:01:00 AM

    As Chinese retail investors pour back into the world’s hottest stock market, they’re leaving their fingerprints all over the place. The most telltale sign: The Chinese equivalent of penny stocks, assets that have long held an allure for amateurs, are trouncing the benchmark index.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1smc7J8

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  5. From Bloomberg, Jan 10, 2015, 9:17:44 PM

    The hottest area in cancer drugs is going mainstream this year.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1tVeCxe

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  6. From Bloomberg, Jan 10, 2015, 12:00:01 PM

     U.S. President Barack Obama. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

    Fresh from unveiling plans to spur homeownership and make community college free, President Barack Obama will next highlight proposals to boost broadband access, improve cybersecurity and tackle identity theft.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1FEhrxr

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  7. From Bloomberg, Jan 11, 2015, 1:18:24 PM

    The average price of regular gasoline at U.S. pumps slid to the lowest level since April 2009, dropping 26.92 cents in the three weeks ended Jan. 9 to $2.2021 a gallon, according to Lundberg Survey Inc.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1xZGZjt

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  8. From Bloomberg, Jan 9, 2015, 7:03:21 PM

     A worker prepares to lift drills by pulley to the main floor in the Permian basin outside of Midland, Texas, U.S. Photographer: Brittany Sowacke/Bloomberg

    After six straight months of plunging oil prices, U.S. shale drillers have sent the clearest signal to date that they’re retreating.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/14aBsu3

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  9. From Bloomberg, Jan 9, 2015, 5:17:22 PM

     Jan. 9 — Mohamed El-Erian, a Bloomberg View columnist and former chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., talks about the December U.S. employment report released today, the economy and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. El-Erian speaks with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop.” (El-Erian is a Bloomberg View columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. Source: Bloomberg)

    Treasuries rose after a government report showed wages unexpectedly declined in December, sparking speculation the Federal Reserve will take a slower pace with interest-rates increases.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1AQtBPx

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  10. From Bloomberg, Jan 9, 2015, 3:27:20 PM

    Oil dropped to the lowest level in more than five years on growing evidence that OPEC won’t pare output to reduce a global supply surplus.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1BG4jDL

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  11. From Bloomberg, Jan 9, 2015, 1:07:04 PM

    (Bloomberg) — The U.S. House of Representatives voted to approve TransCanada Corp.’s Keystone XL pipeline, moving toward a showdown with President Barack Obama, who has said he would veto the measure.

    To read the entire article, go to http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-01-09/keystone-approval-bill-passed-by-house-amid-obama-veto-threat

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  12. I know this is of interest to some people:

    RANDALL HICKS

    The American Dream Realized

    Top Contributor

    Kartik, 
    From the ThinkorSwim.com Learning Center I found this and it works. But, where it says Printer Icon, it should say the Activities Menu Icon to far right of the sub-tab menu selections. 
    Hope this gives you some direction… 

    RTD 
    thinkorswim supports the RealTimeData (RTD) functions in Excel in order to allow you to do your own custom bookkeeping in real time. RTD is a function of Excel that enables you to call our Component Object Model (COM) Automation server to retrieve data from thinkorswim in real time.

    To use RTD, bring up a watchlist on the Quotes sub-tab under the MarketWatch tab, click on the Printer icon in the top right, and choose “Export to Excel”. 
    Because RTD is a function in Excel, you can take full advantage of the power of Excel with functionality such as cell referencing. 
    To see all of the functions supported in exported data, click on the “Data Export Help” option on the Printer menu. 

    •  

  13. Apple’s Dominant Camera Numbers On Flickr Threatens Canon’s Supremacy
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/ewanspence/2015/01/11/apple-canon-nikon-flickr-usage/




  14. Tesla Is Facing Difficulties Breaking Into The Mass Market
    http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-ambitious-tesla-runs-into-roadblocks-2015-1


  15. The Sum Total Of Human Progress Over The Past 150 Years Is Revealed In These 2 Charts
    http://www.businessinsider.com/human-progress-2015-1


  16. The ‘Internet of Things’ Will Be The World’s Most Massive Device Market And Save Companies Billions Of Dollars
    http://www.businessinsider.com/how-the-internet-of-things-market-will-grow-2014-10


  17. What Can the West Do to Fight Radical Islam? Listen to Salman Rushdie’s Blunt Response.
    http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2015/01/10/is-the-west-waking-up-to-fight-islam/



  18. JPMorgan’s Ultimate Guide To The Markets And The Economy
    http://www.businessinsider.com/jp-morgan-guide-to-markets-q1-2015-2015-1


  19. Idea for natural gas terminal in waters off New York, New Jersey rankles fracking critics
    http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2015/01/11/idea-for-natural-gas-terminal-in-waters-off-new-york-new-jersey-rankles/


  20. Here’s Your Complete Preview Of This Week’s Big Economic Events
    http://www.businessinsider.com/monday-scouting-report-jan-12-2015-2015-1


  21. GM to unveil electric car that can go 200 miles on single charge
    http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/10/autos/detroit-auto-show-general-motors-chevrolet-bolt/




  22. This very scary chart reveals the risky business of China’s bull market
    http://qz.com/324150/this-very-scary-chart-reveals-the-risky-business-of-chinas-bull-market/





  23. Welcome To The Maker-Industrial Revolution
    http://www.popsci.com/welcome-industrial-maker-revolution




  24. Goldman’s USD forecasts in Fed’s FRB/US macro model imply “a persistent and sizable drag on growth for several years”
    http://twitter.com/boes_/status/554393375315861504/photo/1


  25. Mining Bitcoin Has Become A Ruthlessly Competitive Business
    http://www.businessinsider.com/mining-bitcoin-is-a-competitive-business-2015-1


  26. Saudi Prince Warns “We Will Not See $100 Oil Again”, Calls Anti-Russia Conspiracy “Baloney”
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-11/saudi-prince-warns-we-will-not-see-100-oil-again-calls-anti-russia-conspiracy-balone



  27. iPhone separation linked to anxiety and poor cognitive performance
    http://thenextdigit.com/16416/iphone-separation-linked-anxiety-poor-cognitive-performance/


  28. The Stimulus Monkeys Are Screeching And The Central Banks Are Pushing On A String
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-11/stimulus-monkeys-are-screeching-and-central-banks-are-pushing-string


  29. The 7 German Banks That Survived The Financial Crisis Are Still A Mess
    http://www.businessinsider.com/7-german-banks-are-still-a-mess-2015-1


  30. The ‘Buffett Formula’ Will Help You Get Smarter Every Day
    http://www.businessinsider.com/buffett-formula-helps-you-get-smarter-2015-1


  31. For Bank Of America, Crime Is Now An Ordinary Course Of Business
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-15/bank-america-crime-now-ordinary-course-business


  32. Foreign leaders join 3m French in march against Paris terror killings
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e8974d40-99a4-11e4-a3d7-00144feabdc0.html


  33. Pope Francis: The Markets And The Economy In Their Current Forms Will Lead To New Crises
    http://www.businessinsider.com/r-pope-calls-for-more-market-regulation-denies-he-is-marxist-paper-2015-1




  34. Moench shared a chart on StockTwits
    http://stocktwits.com/Moench/message/31126468




  35. /CL 47.80 on Sunday Night 7.20pm.  Phil, you still like it long?  

    Seems like 48 is a good line to short off of as well.


  36. Now 47.48.  I'm going long off anything around 47.45ish


  37. In @ 47.48  Out @ 47.62.  


  38. With ya Burrben   Long over 47.50


  39. Nice


  40. In @ 47.48.  2nd will be added at 47.43.  Sell at 47.62.  

    Just trying to make a few $$, nothing crazy.

    Does anyone use other technical indicators on the /CL charts to indicate a directional change or momentum shift?  I'm not familiar with many of them, but I've heard of things like RSI or Macd cross's….etc.  


  41. I watch fast stochastics and rsi and also 8 ema 22ema and 40 ema.  I watch pivots also.

    Don't watch macd much. I watch the dollar and gold also, if i am trading oil.


  42. out @ 47.59


  43. How do I setup fast Stochastics and RSI.  What do you look for?

    I'm using IB, but I have a TOS login


  44. I use TOS an i just scroll thru there studies and use there default fast stochastics setup usually on futures trader of active trader tabs


  45. Looks like you are doing a good job tonight… maybe you don't need all the stuff


  46. Burr/Wilsons- Phil has taught me that during these off hours this trade is dominated by the bots and machines just trading off each other until they see a retail trader come in and then they try to mess with you. Very manipulated, but can't fight the market so f you feel it breaking out, it probably is. Be very careful this time of night, they are trying to fake you out constantly.


  47. Thanks craigsa620   Very good advice


  48. For sure.  The beauty of this range is that 47 has been a good place to hold.  The bottom of the bottom.  Does this mean it can't go lower?  No, but what Phil has taught me is that he doesn't let the short term swings knock him out of a good position.  

    That is what killed me last week.  My trailing stops would trigger since the price would rise…my stops would rise, then the price would fall, kick my stops out and then it would really rise and I would miss it.  

    What Phil would do is DD on a "fakeout" instead of stopping out 1 contract.  

    Now if we were in the middle of a range around the 49 level, I probably wouldn't even be playing.  Are you playing?  

    I'm in 1@47.48 again, with a sell at 47.59.  


  49. Some competition for TSLA:

    http://jalopnik.com/the-chevrolet-bolt-will-be-a-200-mile-electric-tesla-fi-1678649485

    It seems that General Motors has a couple electric surprises in store for next week's Detroit Auto Show. In addition to the all-new 2016 Chevrolet Volt extended range plug-in hybrid, they're also cooking up a pure electric crossover aimed right at Tesla Motors for a fraction of the price — and it's called the Chevrolet Bolt. 

    Some details about the Bolt concept leaked out tonight ahead of the car's debut on Monday. The Wall Street Journal says the Bolt will have a 200-mile range, be sold in all 50 states, cost around $30,000, and will debut in 2017.


  50. Not the sign of a robust economy:

    http://www.autoblog.com/2015/01/10/automakers-paying-chinese-dealers-lower-than-expected-sales/

    The Chinese dealers vs. foreign manufacturers story won't quit. It began with a story on the struggles faced by FAW-Toyota joint venture dealers, with supposedly 95 percent of the showrooms losing money, and 10 percent of them doing so poorly that they'd have to exit the business. The problem is mandated sales targets, most set when the country's economy was racing. Now that things have slowed, China's dealers are swimming in unsold cars and the costs to keep them. In the case of FAW-Toyota, dealers asked Toyota to hand over 2.2 billion yuan ($355 million) to help address the situation.

    That was followed by a report noting the issues that Honda, BMW, and Nissan dealers are having with the same issue, revealing that the Chinese Automobile Dealers Association (CADA) had taken the highly unusual step of writing to the Chinese government to complain.

    Now Reuters reports that CADA is not only pressing its case even harder, it's being open about it: it announced that BMW agreed to pay dealers 5.1 billion yuan ($820 million) to alleviate poor profits last year. Unnamed sources said Audi has thrown 2 billion yuan into the kitty for subsidies, and Daimler has contributed "about 1 billion yuan" to its dealers. The battle isn't just about 2014, but how business will be run in 2015 as well: Chinese Porsche dealers have requested the automaker lower its 2015 target of 64,000 cars, which would be a 40-percent increase on its 2014 sales of 46,931 vehicles.

    These are shocking numbers! Almost bailout like…


  51. Out @ 47.59 as it spiked to 47.61.  

    Ok, I'll stop posting this crap.  


  52. What happened to supply side economy:

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/brownback-tax-revenue-increase-budget

    Brownback announced last month that he would initiate budget cuts to help fill the large budget deficit projected to reach $279 million by June 2015. Jon Hummel, the governor's chief of staff, told the Eagle that the governor would specifically target the state's education budget.

    Brownback implemented steep income tax cuts during his first term in office, which prompted some state Republicans to back the Democratic candidate in the 2014 election.

    Hummel said that the governor is still focused on limiting spending despite the proposal to increase tax revenue.

    "Revenue didn’t come in quite as was projected," he told the Eagle. "If we can do some things on the tax side and do some things on the budget side and still maintain that overall philosophy, then he's always been open to that."

    How many times do these economic theories have to be proven wrong for them to be abandoned? So you cut taxes and surprise, surprise, revenues don't come in as projected. Sounds familiar – because it happened when Reagan cut taxes, it happened when Bush cut taxes and it happened in every state where they did the same. Still, try, try again…


  53. Burrben   Haha   its not crap. I am out on that spike too


  54. StJ – How do we make $$ off the information you post?  


  55. Too earl for me to trade oil – I'm watching the Golden Globes…

    $47.50 should hold but make sure $49 holds on Brent or run away.  I don't think any news is driving this and, without news, the technicals tend to hold on weak volume. 


  56. From Bloomberg, Jan 11, 2015, 7:01:00 PM


    A visitor passes oil barrels stored at the Emirates National Oil Co. lubricants and grease manufacturing plant in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates. Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which pumps about 40 percent of the world’s oil, have stressed a dozen times in the past six weeks that the group won’t curb output to halt the rout. Photographer: Gabriela Maj/Bloomberg

    The oil industry was listening as OPEC talked down crude prices to a more than five-year low.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1KzXGa9

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  57. From Bloomberg, Jan 11, 2015, 9:06:31 PM

    China’s stocks fell for a third day amid concern gains for the world’s best-performing equities market over the past year has been excessive relative to the outlook for the economy.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1AG9VfG

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  58. From Bloomberg, Jan 11, 2015, 8:22:43 PM

     Factory workers fine tune bricks stacked by robotic arms during production at the Acme Brick Co. manufacturing facility in Leeds, Alabama, U.S. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell for a second day, extending losses from a record close on Jan. 8, after data on Jan. 9 showed average hourly earnings for all U.S. employees fell in December by the most since comparable records began in 2006. Photographer: Luke Sharrett/Bloomberg

    Gold rose to the highest level in a month after a report on U.S. wages raised concern that the economy may not be strong enough for the Federal Reserve to start increasing interest rates, hurting the dollar for a second day.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1AG85LR

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  59. From Bloomberg, Jan 11, 2015, 8:20:23 PM

     Jan. 9 –- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart, Bill Gross, a fund manager at Janus Capital Group Inc., and Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Inc., talk about today’s U.S. employment report for December and the outlook for the labor market and Fed policy. This report also contains comments from Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Mark Kiesel; the Hoover Institution’s Timothy Kane; RBS Capital’s Jonathan Golub and former Pimco Chief Executive officer Mohamed El-Erian. (El-Erian is a Bloomberg View columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. Source: Bloomberg)

    The yen rose toward its highest level since December versus the dollar as concern lingered that the U.S. labor market is too weak for the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1sgcJQn

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  60. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/14xcx4q

    Stay Invested in China Stocks: Hamon Investment’s Simon

    Jan. 9 — Hugh Simon, chief executive officer of Hamon Investment Group, talks about the stock markets and economies of China and India.
    He speaks with Angie Lau on Bloomberg Television’s “Asia Edge.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  61. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1ANO1sp

    Abenomics Still Not Working, Rabobank’s Every Says

    Jan. 9 — Michael Every, Hong Kong-based head of Asia Pacific financial-markets research at Rabobank International, talks about the economies, policies and currencies of the U.S., Europe, Japan and China.
    He speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  62. From Bloomberg, Jan 11, 2015, 7:01:01 PM

    The European Central Bank’s public debate over buying government bonds is reaching a climax.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1BRoQ8z

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  63. From Bloomberg, Jan 11, 2015, 4:00:01 PM

    Russians may be more miserable than the data suggest.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1AFXBfF

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  64. Good advice Phil.  Looks like these are done moving it up and down for now.  Stuck at 47.66-.69.  

    /BZ is Brent Futures on IB fyi.  Alert set at 48.99


  65. From Bloomberg, Jan 9, 2015, 7:02:16 PM

     The world’s biggest energy exporter is on the brink of a recession after crude fell more than 50 percent since June and the U.S. and its allies imposed sanctions following President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in March. Photographer: Oliver Bunic/Bloomberg

    Russia’s credit rating was cut to the lowest investment grade by Fitch Ratings after plummeting oil prices and the conflict over Ukraine triggered the worst currency crisis since the country’s 1998 default.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1DH3hXw

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  66. From Bloomberg, Jan 11, 2015, 7:31:04 PM

    Oil extended losses from the lowest level in more than 5 1/2 years as Venezuela and Iran called for members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to work together to assist in a recovery of the crude market.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1BRugAv

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  67. From Bloomberg, Jan 11, 2015, 9:23:17 PM

    Copper in London held losses near the lowest in more than five years on speculation demand growth my falter amid signs of uneven economic growth in the U.S., Germany and China, the largest metals consumers.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1AGhDGP

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  68. "a report on U.S. wages raised concern that the economy may not be strong enough for the Federal Reserve to start increasing interest rates."
     

    Does that mean it's so bad it's good [for the stock market]?  We can all agree that stock prices have reached what would traditionally be overbought levels, but if the free money keeps flowing — indeed, if the flow increases yet further — why would anyone call the end of the bull market?  Inquiring minds….


  69. At 47.70, I'm not confident either way, so just waiting until a cross below 47.50 or above 48.  Made enough to purchase 30 bloody mary's so far :)


  70. Oil/ Burrben

    I use 50 and 200 MA along with vwap on 5 min chart

    Above Vwap is long below is short I try to get 10 to 20 ticks

    Right now 50 ma and vwap at 47.68

    also don,t usually trade on sunday nights or from 8 pm til 5 or 6 am

    Have a rather modest goal of 30 ticks 3 days a week

    Watch ES,TF,Dollar,Euro,and also watchin Nat gas right now


  71. Also use vpro on 1 min chart usually record vah poc and val at 230pm est everyday  help determine possible range for next trading day


  72.  http://tos.mx/MMqJ8f here is a link with vpro study on TOS think It'll let you save it


  73. Phil/ rtd,
    This is very useful. I was just thinking of how to get days from tos into excel. I will use this for our prototype.

    Thanks as always.
    Regards


  74. Days = data


  75. Good morning! 

    Oil even lower now that EU opened down, $47.23 on /CL at the moment with BNO at $19.16 (Brent $48.49) and that's down 2.43% for Brent, so we should be bouncy around here if you are feeling brave (0.5% weak to $47.50, 1% strong to $47.75(ish)).  

    Bad/ZZ – Yes, that keeps the Fed at the table in theory but, in practice – they NEED to raise rates and they NEED to unwind QE before they begin to take losses on that massive balance sheet of theirs. This year, the Fed showed a $100Bn profit, which reduced our deficit by $100Bn this year, if they start losing $100Bn instead, that adds $200Bn to our Deficit (the positive they lose, plus the negative) and that would paint an ugly picture.

    Bloody Mary's/Burr – Good call.

    You're welcome Pat, I thought that would be useful info (though way over my head). 


  76. They are using the fact that oil is taking down the CPIs to excuse more ridiculous QE programs that funnel money to the top 1%:

    Kudos to France for a spontaneous, peaceful, MASSIVE rally:

    Embedded image permalink

    I very much doubt that we could pull that off!  

    Embedded image permalink

    Here's why oil and Brent are tanking – more downgrades from GS, who want to chase retailers out of oil so they can scoop it up down here.  

    Embedded image permalink

    Embedded image permalink

    This home is being torn down to be replaced with a bigger one (LA, of course):

    Embedded image permalink


  77. Europe was up and down but has now decided on up into lunch:


  78. From Bloomberg, Jan 12, 2015, 5:17:05 AM


    Jan. 11 — AMP Capital’s Nader Naeimi discusses the outlook for global stocks in 2015 with Bloomberg’s Angie Lau on “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    While stock investors wait for the benefits of cheaper oil to seep into the economy, all they can see lately is downside.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1BShZf6

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  79. From Bloomberg, Jan 12, 2015, 5:20:00 AM

     A floor hand signals to the driller to pull the pipe from the mouse hole on Orion Drilling Co.’s Perseus drilling rig near Encinal in Webb County, Texas, U.S. The U.S. is pumping oil at the fastest pace in more than three decades, helped by a shale boom that’s unlocked supplies from formations including the Eagle Ford in Texas and the Bakken in North Dakota. Photographer: Eddie Seal/Bloomberg

    Goldman Sachs said U.S. oil prices need to trade near $40 a barrel in the first half of this year to curb shale investments as it gave up on OPEC cutting output to balance the market.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1AGygSL

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  80. From Bloomberg, Jan 12, 2015, 5:57:26 AM


    Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) — Ian Stannard, head of European foreign-exchange strategy at Morgan Stanley in London, discusses his top trade idea to sell sterling and sees the pound weakening to $1.40 in the longer term. He spoke to Bloomberg’s Priyanka Sharma on Jan. 9.

    European stocks rallied with Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures after a two-week slide in benchmark gauges, while Treasuries declined. Oil extended losses and Norway’s krone weakened.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1IfR9iX

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  81. From Bloomberg, Jan 12, 2015, 3:41:21 AM

    Treasuries fell, with 10-year yields climbing from near the lowest level in three months, before the U.S. sells $58 billion of debt this week.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1AHbGJD

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  82. From Bloomberg, Jan 12, 2015, 12:00:07 AM

     New York’s financial district. Photographer: Andrew Burton/Getty Images

    It would have been a good year for the biggest U.S. banks if it weren’t for $30 billion in legal costs.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1BShZf8

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  83. From Bloomberg, Jan 12, 2015, 5:08:24 AM

     Ross McEwan, chief executive officer of the Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, will hold a series of meetings in Singapore today to consider ways to scale back the lender’s Asian business, said a person who asked not to be identified because the meetings are private. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

    Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc is looking to put most of its Asian corporate banking business up for sale, according to a person with knowledge of the discussions.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1w8KNt2

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  84. From Bloomberg, Jan 12, 2015, 2:59:02 AM


    A pedestrian shelters from the rain as she passes a neon sign displaying foreign currency exchange rates on a street in Saint Petersburg. Russia’s economic outlook has “deteriorated significantly since mid-2014” after the sharp falls in the oil price and the ruble, coupled with a steep rise in local interest rates, Fitch said in its statement. Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg

    The world’s top ruble forecaster is unimpressed by the currency’s 30 percent rebound from a record low.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1AH8nSQ

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  85. From Bloomberg, Jan 12, 2015, 5:48:12 AM

    Brazil economists cut their growth estimate and raised their inflation forecast for this year, as the central bank raises rates in the world’s second-biggest emerging market.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1AX3Me7

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  86. From Bloomberg, Jan 12, 2015, 5:33:19 AM

    U.S. stock-index futures rose amid takeover activity, after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index posted its first back-to-back weekly retreat since October.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1BT5CPO

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  87. From Bloomberg, Jan 12, 2015, 5:17:12 AM

    Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s European dark pool had no trading at the open today as its technology provider Euronext NV (ENX) suffered from a connectivity problem.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1BT3YOe

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  88. From Bloomberg, Jan 12, 2015, 5:33:01 AM


    Coffee beans are prepared for roasting at the Cafe Primavera facility in Itapira, Brazil. The crop Brazil’s farmers will harvest from May to October will reach 50 million bags, Ecom Agroindustrial Corp. said last month. Photographer: Paulo Fridman/Bloomberg

    Brazil is getting dry again and the coffee bulls are back.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1FIuLRj

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  89. From Bloomberg, Jan 12, 2015, 4:53:02 AM

    Britain’s legion of amateur satirists reacted with delight to comments by a “terrorism expert” on America’s Fox News channel who said many parts of the U.K., including its second city Birmingham, were Muslim-only areas.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1AHn3Bl

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  90. From Bloomberg, Jan 12, 2015, 4:45:19 AM

    Deutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA), Europe’s second-largest airline, said it’s confident it can reach its profit target this year amid a boost from declining jet fuel expenses after lowering its guidance twice last year.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1BSIJfq

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  91. From Bloomberg, Jan 12, 2015, 4:22:53 AM

     Jan. 9 — Michael Every, Hong Kong-based head of Asia Pacific financial-markets research at Rabobank International, talks about the economies, policies and currencies of the U.S., Europe, Japan and China. He speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Japan plans a record budget for next fiscal year to support an economy that fell into recession after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government increased the sales tax.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1BSgjCh

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  92. From Bloomberg, Jan 7, 2015, 4:27:09 PM


    Wet Seal, a Foothill Ranch, California-based chain focused on young women, has lost more than $150 million over the past two years. Photographer: Jerritt Clark/Getty Images via Bloomberg

    Wet Seal Inc. (WTSL), the clothing chain that has said there is doubt it can continue operating, is closing about two-thirds of its stores and cutting almost 3,700 jobs after failing to win concessions from landlords.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1HMPukK

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  93. /RB touched 1.30 around 11.30 – 12pm.  I had an alert on it, but I was way to asleep.  Anyway, would have been a good long, now 1.32


  94. Phil is oil headed down to $45 with the GS comments or will it just bounce around here where it is for a while as the bots battle it out? Any opinions or are you remaining on the sidelines?


  95. /NG might be heading down to our old buy point of 2.825.  Now 2.854 after opening at 2.92.  


  96. GS Oil Story.  (Way to release it as all the sheeple are sleeping)

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/12/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0KL03Y20150112


  97. I feel more inclined today to get short /CL than long.  Especially once that report is read by the masses.  Phil?  I know you don't like to play on Monday's.


  98. Oil – There's no limit to how low things can panic down to.  It's the same thing when oil was $100 and GS comes out with calls for $150-$200.  They got it to $112 – there was no reason for it and there's no way to know when the dumb money will stop stampeding – you just have to let it run it's course.  Don't be a hero – just let it find support (and I like the -2.5% line intra-day, of course at $49.15 on /CL) and play for the short bounces and be happy to make $100 or $250 and get out.

    Same for /NG – we're not making lifetime commitments here, $2.82.50 is hopefully support but, if it's not, then we'll just see what happens and, on /RB, $1.30 is a great line to play long – until it fails – and then we'll wait for the next good-looking line.  

    Dollar 92.41 is up from 92 so 0.5% gained overnight is driving commodities down and making GS look smart.  I'm certainly long with conviction on oil from $47.15 to $47 but, below $47.95 – I think I'll take the loss and wait for $45 to be tested.  

    PS – With a GS call like that, you have to give US traders a chance to wake up and scream SELLSELLSELL at their brokers, so maybe a down spike at the NYMEX open (9am) and then a better entry on things.


  99. Do you mean 46.95?

    I'm certainly long with conviction on oil from $47.15 to $47 but, below $47.95 – I think I'll take the loss 


  100. Dollar dollar dollar –  Euro / Yen tanking (again). No hope for oil.  I'm long oil , but Euro/short hedged.  We'll see if I can make more on the hedge than I lose in oil, but I'm sorry I jumped the gun and didn't wait for a PSW oil trade to materialize. The Saudis are trying to make a point here, I wonder how (or when) it will end.


  101. The stories about "floating storage" are really interesting, especially the ones that are written in publications about shipping.  There seems to be a arb trade on the price of a tanker/day and the "spot" rate it's trading at.  Anyway, tanker companies are +10%ish.  If the curve steepens the floating storage idea will become more viable.


  102. Yes, $46.95, where I am currently 4 long.  My plan is to get out of 2 at $47.05 so my stop on 2 can be $46.90 even.  

    Dollar 92.50 so I give oil a pass for 1% of the drop (2x to the Dollar) and the rest is GS's fault.  

    Storage/Burr – There are only so many tankers in the World.  I think it's about 4,300 that are over 1Mb in capacity.  I'd figure the average is about 1.3Mb avg since there aren't that many ULCCs (2Mb) and the ship capacity drops off quickly below those.  So, that's 5.6Bn that can be stored in tankers BUT at least 60% of the tankers (probably 80%) were already in use doing their normal transport job (they are like a pipeline, forming a conga line between the producer and the destination) so let's say 2.5Bn barrels at most could be moved into tanker storage.  

    That's a 25-day supply of global oil and of course it would make a difference but what a disaster it would also make when the oil comes back on the market.  Anyway, figure it costs about 0.50 per barrel per month to store it.   Are people really going to pay an extra $6 to store unsold oil for a year?  As you note, tanker rates are flying up and, at more than 10% of the price of a barrel – storing oil in tankers long-term seems like a poor business plan.  

    On to new post please!