Courtesy of Mish.
Conventional wisdom on Greece is that Syriza will win but will fall far short of winning a sufficient margin to avoid having to form a coalition.
The question then would be “coalition with whom?”
However, I am going out on a limb here. I suggest the likelihood of a shocking blowout by Syriza increases by the day. I offer two reasons for my unconventional prediction.
France Open to Negotiations
Yesterday, French finance minister Michel Sapin said France Open to Debt Dialogue with Greece.
French finance minister Michel Sapin has called on eurozone nations to respect the outcome of next Sunday’s election in Greece, saying that the EU should be ready to negotiate with the country’s new leaders on restructuring its huge public debts or extending the terms of its bailout.
“Whatever the result of the election will be, it is absolutely fair and legitimate that discussions should take place between the EU and the new Greek government,” he said. “What we would think is extremely important is the stability of the eurozone.
The remarks from Mr Sapin suggest that France is prepared to take a more conciliatory approach.
New Democracy Loses Credibility
New Democracy leader and current prime minister Antonis Samaras repeatedly stated that bargaining over the bailouts was not possible.
In support of that view, four days ago I reported Finland Opposes Greece Bailout Deal; Contagion Catch 22; No Scope for Solution.
However, France is far more important than Finland, at least psychologically.
In Eurozone rules, every vote theoretically counts the same, but Greek voters are highly likely to believe what they want to believe.
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