Courtesy of Mish.
Initial Reaction
Wages rebounded from the dip last month (but don’t get too excited as per details below). Also, there were big upward revisions to many prior numbers.
The unemployment rate rose this month because of a huge increase in the labor force. The civilian institutional population also leaped this month, and apparently these newly-found people are all looking for work.
In yet another anomaly, unemployment rose by 291,000, but that was tempered by a rise in employment of 759,000.
This was certainly a strange report. Revisions are at the heart of it.
This is just one month, and the household data has been exceptionally volatile lately.
Revisions
- November nonfarm payroll employment was revised from +353,000 to +423,000
- December nonfarm payroll employment was revised from +252,000 to +329,000
- With these revisions, employment gains in November and December were 147,000 higher than previously reported.
- Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses since the last published estimates and the monthly recalculation of seasonal factors.
- The annual benchmark process also contributed to these revisions.
BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance
- Nonfarm Payroll: +257,000 – Establishment Survey
- Employment: +759,000 – Household Survey
- Unemployment: +291,000 – Household Survey
- Involuntary Part-Time Work: +20,000 – Household Survey
- Voluntary Part-Time Work: +92,000 – Household Survey
- Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.1 at 5.7% – Household Survey
- U-6 unemployment: +0.1 to 11.3% – Household Survey
- Civilian Non-institutional Population: +705,000
- Civilian Labor Force: +1,051,000 – Household Survey
- Not in Labor Force: -354,000 – Household Survey
- Participation Rate: +0.2 at 62.9 – Household Survey
January 2015 Employment Report
Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) November 2014 Employment Report.
…
