Courtesy of Mish.
In Ceasefire in Ukraine; Description of the Negotiations I asked a number of questions.
Will This Hold?
I don't know. This sounds like the limited autonomy arrangement in the last failed Minsk accord. But what's in the footnote? Does this mean a limited Federation without using those words? Is everyone tired enough of war to make this stick?
Let's take a look at what Colonel Cassad and Stratfor have to say.
Colonel Cassad on Results of Minsk
Here is a link to a Google Translation of Colonel Cassad on Results of Minsk.
A skeptical Cassad calls the results a half-hearted solution which on the one hand outlines the terms of the cease-fire, and on the other, a series of questions hanging in the air.
"The Truce on February 15 (if it takes place), will mean that the fighting will continue for 2 days where changes will mark the frontline border"
Cassad notes the "incomprehensible situation of the Debaltsevskim boiler [cauldron]. Poroshenko argues that there is no boiler, and Putin argues that trapped forces must lay down their arms."
"With regard to the remaining items, there is more wishful thinking than concrete solutions. France and Germany do not accept any responsibility for the implementation of these agreements, it is solely the responsibility of Russia, and of the junta [Ukraine] with the People's Republic. The threat of escalation of the confrontation was not removed, but simply postponed."
Autonomy
The critical question of autonomy will likely make or break this accord Cassad. Here is an unedited translation of Cassad.
Leaders of the DNI and LC actually publicly disown Declaration of State Sovereignty of People's Republic and gave their consent to the actual stay within Ukraine. The idea of federalization and autonomy of Ukraine were publicly buried that Poroshenko has already declared his major success. At the same reservation had been made ??in the case of violation of the agreements more talks will follow. This is probably one of the required Russian guarantees. Of course, if hypothetically assume that all points of the agreement are met and the Donbass will remain a part of Ukraine, proposals laid with new agreements that do not allow us to say that the Donbass stub can be used as a lever to correct the Kremlin Ukraine in the desired way. At the same time official Kiev is still evading the Kremlin's attempts to seat Poroshenko and managers DNR and LC for the negotiation table. That is the direct contacts between the junta and the People's Republic is still there, and the next "truce" is pushed under the verbal assurances of the Russian Federation, Germany and France.
Cassad Conclusion
A full-fledged document on the settlement did not happen, the question hung in the air of the Crimea. In general, in my opinion, if the truce will not be torpedoed right now, we will have another respite and renewal of intense fighting. From what discussed and what was signed and that in my opinion can be done – a truce, divorce and heavy weapons exchange of prisoners. Everything else at this stage malovypolnimo, even without taking into account the expected action by the US escalation of the conflict.
The above translation is also unedited.
Ambiguities of Ceasefire
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