Archive for March, 2015

Dow Futures Down 400 From Monday Highs After Asian Open Flash-Crash

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

After Japan’s Tankan disappointed greatly and various talking heads from Japan came out to deliver the credibility-destroying-phrase of the day: that “the economic recovery is progressing smoothly” despite all evidence to the contrary… USDJPY took a dive. And when USDJPY takes a dive, all its risk-on, carry-trade-imbibed friends take a dive. Dow futures cratered 230 points in minutes only to bounce back modestly when some enterprising sell-side analyst reminded the machines that “bad news is good news.” But that didn’t last and US equity futures are sliding rapidly in the overnight session…

Dow futures have retraced all of Monday’s 3-step-gains and are down over 400 points from the Monday highs…

and across all US equity futures, things are ugly heading into Europe…

And all because… fun-durr-mentals…

Charts: Bloomberg





A World Without The Welfare State

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted Richard M. Ebeling via The Cobden Centre,

We live in an era in which few can even conceive of a world without the welfare state. Who would care for the old? How would people provide for their medical needs? What would happen to the disadvantaged and needy that fell upon hard times? In fact, there were free market solutions and non-government answers to these questions long before the modern Big Government Welfare State.

In fact, before the arrival of modern welfare state, voluntary, private-sector institutions had evolved to serve as the market providers for many of those “social services” now viewed as the near-exclusive prerogative of the government. Unfortunately, after nearly a century of increasing political and cultural collectivism, the historical memory of the pre-welfare state era has all but been lost.

Great Britain in the 19th and early 20th centuries is an historical case study in how many of these problems were handled without political intervention in the private affairs of society.

The Friendly Societies and Mutual Insurance Protections

The focal point for many of these private-sector answers was the “friendly societies.” When they first arose in the late 18th and early 19th century Britain, the friendly societies were mutual-aid associations for insurance for the cost of funerals of workers or their family members.

But as the 19th century progressed, the friendly societies expanded their activities to encompass four primary services: 1) accident insurance that provided weekly allowances for the families of workers who were injured in their places of employment; 2) medical insurance that covered the cost of medical care and prescribed medicines for workers and their families; 3) life insurance and assistance to maintain family members in case of the death of the primary breadwinner or his spouse; and 4) funeral insurance to cover burial costs for the worker or members of his family. Later on, many of the societies also developed savings and lending facilities for members, fire insurance and loans for home purchases.

By 1910, the year before Britain’s first National Insurance Act was brought into law, approximately three-quarters of the work force of the British economy was covered by the private, voluntary insurance associations of the friendly societies. The memberships in their associations covered the entire income spectrum, from the middle- and higher-income skilled worker to the low-wage,…
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China Builds $6 Million Bridge To Nowhere

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As Beijing gets set to expand its global footprint via the launch of multinational institutions like the AIIB which are aimed squarely at disrupting the post-World War II economic order and shaking up a system that’s been underpinned by the notion of dollar hegemony for decades, it’s important that China keep up the momentum when it comes to besting the US wherever and whenever it can. Presumably that’s why the country sunk nearly $6 million and 12 months of work into building the world’s longest glass bridge that leads absolutely nowhere. The key point, apparently, is that the structure is a whopping 5 meters longer than its US competitor.

Via China.org

Workers are finishing the construction of a glass cantilever bridge in Longgang scenic area in Yunyang, Southwest China’s Chongqing municipality. The transparent structure, 718 meters above the ground, has a cantilever extending 26.68 meters from the edge, five meters longer than the Grand Canyon Skywalk. The project, with a total investment of 35 million yuan($5.6 million), started in March 2014. The bridge has a carrying capacity of 1000 tons. [Photo/China News Service]





OECD Economic Review Chair Warns, Central Bankers “Are Doing More Harm Than Good, Policy Must Be Reversed”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In Part (Part 1 here) of Hinde Capital's latest note ascribes, we go further down "The Road to Nowhere" in this excellent discussion with former BIS Economic Adviser, and current Chairman of the Economic and Development Review Committee of the OECD (and teller-of-the-truth) William White explains it all.. 

From Part 1…

"I'm not sure [European QE] is going to do anything – certainly, nothing that's good. The fundamental problem here, as I see it anyway, is that the European banking system is still broken… I think, increasingly, bankers are discomforted more than anything else (it's not just the ex central bankers but increasingly the people that are still holding the levers)… they are starting to ask whether they have somehow been backed into a place where they don't really want to be…. Unfortunately, [it] is getting bigger and bigger. There is a possibility at least that this whole exercise could end very badly."

*  *  *

Part 2…

"I fear that central bankers may have been inadvertently drawn into what they are currently doing… [QE] won't work and may have many undesired side effects that will build up over time. Many of the central bankers at Davos this year said explicitly that they were only buying time for governments to act but, seven years into the crisis, it already seems we have been waiting forever…  the effectiveness of monetary policy in terms of stimulating aggregate demand goes down with time, because you're constantly bringing spending forward from the future…  Logically, at this point, central bankers should say, "We are doing more harm than good. This policy must be reversed." But I don't see anybody actually doing it."

Via Hinde Capital, The Cobden Centre, and True Sinews

Sean Corrigan: Well, we hear this line from Mr. Carney. Without getting to personalities, of course since I don't know him – he may well be a very worthy individual – but I can't read any of his pronouncements without shuddering. He explicitly says this, doesn't he? "We need more borrowing. We need more borrowing," and then, "Oh, we will only put up interest rates gently, because with all this borrowing, we will just shock the system again the minute we do anything."

William White: Who is that you're talking about?…..

Sean Corrigan:…
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World Inflation Falls To A New 5-Year Low

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

From Gavekal Capital Blog

World Inflation Falls To A New 5-Year Low

It’s become a running theme, at least since last September, but the latest release of CPI numbers from around the world has brought our simple average World CPI proxy to its lowest level since the financial crisis. For the period ending in February, our World CPI proxy hit just 1.01% year-over-year. This is the lowest rate of change since November 2009. The year-over-year rate in our World CPI proxy has been falling for six months straight.

Oil has undoubtedly dragged down the headline CPI for many countries around the world. However, our World CPI proxy has the highest correlation (0.78) to the Citi Inflation Surprise Index which is near its lowest levels ever. 14 of the 33 countries that we track currently have a year-over-year change in consumer prices at or below 0%.

Our World PPI proxy bounced back slightly in February but still remains squarely in negative territory year-over-year (-2.43%).





If It Ain’t Broken, Don’t Fix It: Religious Freedom Act Take II

Courtesy of Mish.

Religious Freedom Act Take II

I received a number of emails in response to Indiana Legalizes Discrimination on Grounds of "Religious Freedom".

The bill, signed by Indiana Governor Mike Pence openly encourages discrimination based on sexual preference although Pence incredulously denies that claim. Pence now recognizes the need to "clarify" the legislation.

One of the better email responses came from reader Mark who wrote …

The Constitution plainly states "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof."

The Constitutional guarantee of religious freedom is sacrosanct. The only restrictions placed on religious freedom are those religious practices that harm others.

And I would say “Yes” if you wanted to post a “No Catholics” or “No Jews” sign on the front door of your business. I would also warn, in the same breath, that you may find your business surrounded by protestors and boycotted the very next day. That is the market forces at work. Even though I am neither a Catholic nor a Jew, I would not do business with someone that had that sign on their front door. That is my choice, too.

Mark

If It Ain't Broken, Don't Fix It

I replied …

"Why was there a need then to pass any bill? Pence now says the bill needs to be 'clarified'. If the bill needs 'clarification' then something in it is wrong. At best, the law was political stupidity. At worst, the legislation provides explicit and open encouragement of discrimination."

By the way, the problem with allowing a sign "Blacks Not Welcome" or "Jews Not Welcome" would be the massive protests that would undoubtedly disrupt neighboring establishments, all of which whose business would suffer while the sign was up.

In fact, it is likely the entire neighborhood of an establishment posting such as sign would be torched, with considerable and perhaps permanent damage to the property owner. …

Continue Here

 





Imperial Collapse And A License To Kill

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Dmitry Orlov via Club Orlov blog,

The story is the same every time: some nation, due to a confluence of lucky circumstances, becomes powerful—much more powerful than the rest—and, for a time, is dominant. But the lucky circumstances, which often amount to no more than a few advantageous quirks of geology, be it Welsh coal or West Texas oil, in due course come to an end. In the meantime, the erstwhile superpower becomes corrupted by its own power.

As the endgame approaches, those still nominally in charge of the collapsing empire resort to all sorts of desperate measures—all except one: they will refuse to ever consider the fact that their imperial superpower is at an end, and that they should change their ways accordingly. George Orwell once offered an excellent explanation for this phenomenon: as the imperial end-game approaches, it becomes a matter of imperial self-preservation to breed a special-purpose ruling class—one that is incapable of understanding that the end-game is approaching. Because, you see, if they had an inkling of what's going on, they wouldn't take their jobs seriously enough to keep the game going for as long as possible.

The approaching imperial collapse can be seen in the ever worsening results the empire gets for its imperial efforts.

After World War II, the US was able to do a respectable job helping to rebuild Germany, along with the rest of western Europe. Japan also did rather well under US tutelage, as did South Korea after the end of fighting on the Korean peninsula. With Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia, all of which were badly damaged by the US, the results were significantly worse: Vietnam was an outright defeat, Cambodia lived through a period of genocide, while amazingly resilient Laos—the most heavily bombed country on the planet—recovered on its own.

The first Gulf War went even more badly: fearful of undertaking a ground offensive in Iraq, the US stopped short of its regular practice of toppling the government and installing a puppet regime there, and left it in limbo for a decade. When the US did eventually invade, it succeeded—after killing countless civilians and destroying much of the infrastructure—in leaving behind a dismembered corpse of a country.

Similar results have been achieved in other places where the US saw it fit to get


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Abewrongics: Nikkei/USDJPY Tankin’ After Terrible Tankan

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Bad news isn’t even good news anymore in Japan. A sushi-boat-load of data this evening show once again that Abenomics is failing dismally. In no particular order… Large Manufacturing Index MISS (lowest in 9 months), Large Manufacturing Outlook BIG MISS, Large Services Outlook MISS, Small Manufacturing Index MISS, Small Manufacturing Outlook BIG MISS, and drum roll please… Tankan Large Industry Capex Outlook crashes to -1.2% (from +8.7%) – the lowest in 2 years (since Abewrongics was unleashed). The response… USDJPY and Nikkei are dumping…

So much for unleashing animal spirits… Capex outlook plunges…

And bad news is no longer good news in Japan as investors lose faith…

Charts: Bloomberg





In the News, 3-31-15

From Bloomberg

Singapore Home Prices Post Longest Losing Streak Since 2004Singapore's Property

Singapore’s home prices dropped for a sixth consecutive quarter, the longest losing streak in more than a decade, as tighter mortgage curbs cooled demand in Asia’s second-most expensive housing market.

An index tracking private residential prices fell 1.1 percent in the three months ended March 31, matching the longest stretch of declines since March 2004, according to preliminary data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority on Wednesday. The URA changed the method it uses to calculate the property index from last quarter to better reflect the property market, it said in the statement. (More)

 

China Enters Stock Frenzy as Rookie Traders Open Record AccountsChina's Stock Market

To get a sense of the frenzy in China’s world-beating equity market, consider this: In a two-week span last month, the rally lured 2.8 million rookie stock pickers, almost the equivalent of Chicago’s entire population. (Read here)

Indian Nifty Futures Drop After Worst Benchmark Month in 2 Years

Indian stock-index futures dropped after benchmark gauges capped their biggest monthly loss since February 2013.

SGX CNX Nifty Index futures for April delivery fell 0.2 percent to 8,525.5 at 9:52 a.m. in Singapore. The underlying CNX Nifty Index was little changed at 8,491 on Tuesday. The S&P BSE Sensex lost 0.1 percent to 27,957.49. The Bank of New York Mellon India ADR Index of U.S.-traded shares declined 0.4 percent. Markets in India are closed Thursday and Friday for the Mahavir Jayanti and Good Friday holidays. (Continue)

 

China’s Big Stock Market Rally Is Being Fueled by High-School DropoutsAsian Stocks Drop as China Rate Concern Lingers

There’s a story that Joseph Kennedy sold his stocks on the cusp of the Great Crash of 1929 after a shoe shine boy shared trading tips with him. If even the shoe polisher is buying stocks, he reasoned, the market must be riding for a fall.

New data from the China Household Finance Survey, a large-scale survey of household income and assets headed by Professor Li Gan of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, provides fresh insights


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This Is How Many Times Blogger Bernanke Use The Word “Debt” In A Post About Secular Stagnation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

By now everyone, any by everyone we mean even that pillar of orthodox “economic wisdom” , McKinsey, has realized that the reason the world is blanketed in a period of secular stagnation and soon, contraction, is simple: an unprecedented, record amount of debt:

… debt which the world should have restructured as part of the resolution of the global financial crisis, however neither was the financial crisis resolved, nor was the debt overhang fixed. In fact, in all his brilliance, then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke decided to “fix” record debt with more debt and so did all his other central bank peers leading to this:

In fact McKinsey could not be clearer, even for those central bankers who at first, or second, sight may suffer from congenital comprehension defects:

 “High debt levels, whether in the public or private sector, have historically placed a drag on growth and raised the risk of financial crises that spark deep economic recessions.”

So considering that in his latest blog post “Why are interest rates so low, part 2: Secular stagnation” none other than the abovementioned Ben Bernanke decides to tackle precisely the topic of global growth, or lack thereof, and specifically “secular stagnation”, one would think that debt would be the dominant word under discussion in Ben Bernanke’s latest Brookings Institute post.

One would be wrong. Here is the number of times Ben Bernanke used the word debt in an article that has 1299 words.

1

… or a “hit rate” of 0.08%.

This is the context:

But if we are really in a regime of persistent stagnation, more fiscal spending might not be an entirely satisfactory long-term response either, because the government’s debt is already very large by historical standards and because public investment too will eventually exhibit diminishing returns.

He is, actually, correct in this sentences. It is everything else that he is incorrect about.

For example error #1:

The Fed cannot reduce market (nominal) interest rates below zero, and consequently—assuming it maintains its current 2 percent target for inflation—cannot reduce real interest rates (the market interest rate less inflation) below minus 2 percent.

of course the Fed can reduce rates below zero: just look at all of its foundering central bank peers…
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Phil's Favorites

The American GI in WWII, uncensored

 

The American GI in WWII, uncensored

Pfc Elias Friedensohn in June 1945 at the Special Services Distributing Point, Seine Section, Paris, France. National Archives

Courtesy of Edward Gitre, Virginia Tech

I can still recall the exhilaration I felt in the reading room of the National Archives in College Park, Maryland.

It was mid-April 2009. I was scrolling through roll after microfilm roll of the War Department’s “Opinion Surveys Relating to the Morale of U.S. Army Personnel.”

What I had discovered were tens of thousands of statements writte...



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Zero Hedge

The Bulls Continue To Bet On The Fed

Courtesy of Lance Roberts, RealInvestmentAdvice.com

Over the last several weeks, we have been discussing the potential for a market correction simply due to divergences in the technical indicators which suggested near-term market risk outweighed the reward. As is generally the case, bonds have been warning the bullish bias of equity investors was likely misplaced. I have updated last week’s chart for reference.

The increase in risks has had us rotating exposure in our portfolios to a more defensive tilt. We previously trimmed back our overweight exposure to Technology, Then, two weeks ago, we noted...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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