Comment by phil

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phil
March 6th, 2015 at 5:58 am

Good morning!

It's all about Non-Farm Payroll today so not much to do but wait. 

China was down a bit but Nikkei held their 220-point pop with the Yen right on that 120 line.  I'm up to 3 short at 18,985 avg and I would add 2 more around 19,050 (19,035 was the high) and hold 5 short over the weekend unless our markets have a great day – then I'd give up.  



This will be fine – as long as they keep borrowing at 0.1%.  At 0.25%, it may become a problem…  Japan Now Spends 43% Of Tax Revenue To Fund Interest On Debt

China Stocks Head for First Weekly Drop in Month on IPO Concerns

China Potential Growth May Slow to 6.2% in 2016-2020. Cai Fang, vice president at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, made a forecast on China's average potential GDP growth in a commentary.

Getting Fuzzier: China Economic Planners Lean on Wiggle Room

 

Ringgit Leads Weekly Drop in Asia Currencies on China Slowdown

Year of the Ram Batters Hong Kong Luxury Retailers

Japan Oil Refiners Taking Shine to Coal

Iron Ore Sinks As Chinese Growth Slips


Iron ore bore the brunt of weak sentiment in commodities markets as China’s top officials heralded a new era of slower growth.

• China Says Will Spend More Than Meets the Eye
• Beijing Cuts Growth Target
• Foreign Firms Take Slower Growth in Stride

$1.09621 was the overnight low on the Euro and it's only $1.0965 now.  Really looks like we're heading for $1 but why stop there?  Pound $1.519 is racing them lower.  And Europe is mixed heading into lunch – also waiting for our NFP report. 



Stocks Inch Higher As Draghi Dreams Trump Dismal Data

ECB Raises Eurozone Forecasts

Russia’s Woes Show No Sign of Abating. A graphic guide to Russia’s declining fortunes. Vladimir Putin has survived politically, thanks to Russians’ support for his assertive foreign policy. But sanctions over Ukraine and a collapse in oil prices have shaken the economy, draining its foreign exchange reserves.

EU Legislator Warns Greece Against Misleading Accounting. Manfred Weber, German head of the Christian Democrats in the European Parliament, warns Greek govt against misleading and unacceptable financial and accounting practices, citing an interview. Weber criticized issue of T-bills and EU1.13b backed by the Greek central bank and the rude and provocative tone of Greek officials.

Greece vs. Germany: Competing Narratives – Brussels Beat: One reason behind the bitter turn in Greece’s negotiations with its creditors is the stories it and Germany are telling themselves about their own recent history.


Deutsche Bank(DB) Debt Unit Feels Pinch Amid Review: Credit Markets. Deutsche Bank AG is learning just how hard it is to stay committed to its fixed-income business in a new world for investment banking. After using some of the 8.5 billion euros ($9.4 billion) it raised in a share sale last year to bolster its fixed-income business, its credit unit has been shrinking. 

SNB Warns on Its Performance

Our Futures are flat so far.  They are already spinning the weather to blame on a bad jobs report but seems to me that would keep people from filing unemployment too.  

Oil $50.95 and, on a Friday, it's too crazy to play.  Gasoline hanging at $1.899 and breaking $1.90 will be tough if oil stays low.  Gold $1,195.90, silver looking good at $16 – I like /SI for a long play off this line.  Copper $2.638 and Nat gas $2.85.  BNO is $22.85 and up half a point for the day, which is in-line with $51.  $23 will probably be hard to break for BNO so figure $51.25ish for a likely top but, again, Friday and NFP are not a good betting combo. 

Friday's economic calendar

• 8:30 Non-farm payrolls
• 8:30 International Trade
• 3:00 PM Consumer Credit

5 Things to Watch in the February Jobs Report – February’s jobs report will be a test for whether the labor market can continue its impressive growth streak even in the face of global turmoil and icy conditions in parts of the country.


U.S.-based stock funds attract $8.4 bln in latest week – Lipper

Fed’s Williams Says ‘Serious’ Rate-Rise Discussion Due Mid-Year. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams said mid-year may be time for a “serious discussion” about raising interest rates as the labor market nears full employment and inflation rebounds. The U.S. will reach maximum employment by year-end or sooner, lifting wages and inflation, which means the Fed should raise rates before achieving its policy goals, Williams, who votes on policy this year, said Thursday in the text of a speech prepared for delivery in Honolulu.

Lord Rothschild Warns Investors: "Geopolitical Situation Most Dangerous Since WWII"

Martin Armstrong Warns "The Tide Is Turning Against The Banks"

Oil Glut Sparks Latest Dilemma: Where to Put It All. As storage tanks near capacity, some predict spillover will send crude prices even lower. In a world awash in crude, oil producers and traders are facing a billion-barrel conundrum: where to put it all. U.S. crude-oil supplies are at their highest level in more than 80 years, according to data from the Energy Information Administration, equal to nearly 70% of the nation’s storage capacity.

Newest Commodity: Storage Space

Heard: Another Reason for Oil to Go Lower

Shale Company Defaults On $175 MM In Bonds Without Making A Single Interest Payment – In other words, people gave them $175M even though they were not financially capable of making even the first payment on the bonds.  THAT's how ridiculous this market is getting!  

Gap(GPS) posts surprise February sales decline. Gap Inc. posted a surprise drop in February same-store sales as its Gap Global and Banana Republic divisions both reported declines. Sales declined 4% while analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had projected a 1.4% increase.

They always find something right before an Apple event:  Apple(AAPL) Pay stung in transactions using data stolen from retailers -WSJ







I find this chart really interesting because people see it and completely ignore it.  It's as if we've decided that Economic Data no longer has anything to do with the whether or not we should buy stocks…  



People sure are bullish!  



If you want to find a bear – look to your left, look to your right and then find two or three more guys and one of them MIGHT be a bear…  What could possibly go wrong?  It's like being at a Beanie Baby convention and seeing all these people paying $20 and $100 for Beanie Babys and then you find one for $5 and think it's a bargain – the madness of the crowds (one of my favorite books).