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Wednesday, February 11, 2026

Wage Growth vs. Economic Theory

Courtesy of Mish.

If economists were right, wage growth and inflation would be soaring. After all, the Phillips Curve states that decreased unemployment in an economy will correlate with higher rates of inflation [and higher wage growth].

Let’s explore that thesis.

Average Hourly Earnings Percent Change From Year Ago

Civilian Unemployment Rate

Let’s hone in on that theory, this time with three charts.

Average Hourly Earnings Percent Change From Year Ago – Detail

Civilian Unemployment Rate – Detail


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