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Bad News is Still Good News in China as Poor PMI Boosts Market

The Chinese economy is collapsing.  

That, of course (in this insane QE World) is being taken as good news by equity traders who anticipate another wave of free money to come gushing out of Beijing ON TOP OF the $194Bn that was announced on Monday.  That's right, China's economy is so big that they need $194Bn PER WEEK to keep it afloat.  How long do you really think they are going to be able to keep that up?

We're short on China with some FXI puts, but not too many yet as we don't know WHEN this madness will end – only that it will end and that it will end very badly when it does.  China's PMI is once again contracting at an accelerating rate DESPITE all the stimulus but last year Chinese market rallied while the economy was clearly contracting as well – popping FXI from 32 in March to 42 in September (up 35%) before collapsing back to 36 in October.  

The Sept/Oct drop happened when Manufacturing numbers were improving, which indicates that the Chinese market, like Japan's and, to some extent, the US and Europe, have nothing to do with how well the economy is doing and everything to do with how much free money the Central Banksters will be able to transfer to their Top 1% buddies.  

The reason the markets don't seem to make sense to you is because you are not in the top 0.01%, where all the free money is going.  From their perspective, they don't give a crap about the economy or the companies they own and invest in, they only care about how much money they can funnel out of the Government, through the banks, that can end up in their pockets.  

4-22-2015 6-01-20 PM cATERPILLAR 2How else do you explain the madness of CAT, who haven't had good sales numbers since the beginning of 2013 (another indication of the World-wide slump) yet have kept their stock net flat over that time period?  The stock even surged to $108 (up 30%) last year before coming back to the $80s but even the $80s seem high based on the clear contraction in sales, don't they?  

Well, it only seems wrong to poor people, who fail to understand how the wealthy shareholders of CAT benefit from maintaining a $27Bn debt load while paying out $1.6Bn in dividends and buying back $4Bn of their own stock in 2014 alone.  Meanwhile, CapEx is down 66% from 2013 because this company, like most American companies, are not planning for the Future – they are only enriching themselves in the present – and sticking the US taxpayers (not them!) with the bill.  

4-22-2015 6-00-43 PM cATERPILLARThis is what is called "Financial Engineering" and it's being practiced by most of the S&P and it's being practiced in China and Japan and Europe because the Recession didn't end and it's not getting better and the top 0.01% know that so they are getting their Bankster Buddies and their Paid Politicians to put their host countries deeply into debt while they transfer as much wealth as they can, as quickly as they can, to themselves.  

Since the crash in 2009, World Governments have taken on roughly $40Tn in debts and the top 1% have gotten $41Tn richer while the bottom 99% have barely held flat.  Maybe you think flat is OK but it won't be when you get the bill from your Government (like the Greeks are) asking you to pay back the $40Tn you borrowed to bail out your Betters.  

And where will your Betters be when it's time to pay the bill?  Well, like the Greek Billionaires who fled before it all hit the fan – they will be off in tax havens, sticking you with the bill or, where possible, they will be exempting themselves from "excessive taxes" in the countries they control.  Why else do you think the Koch Brothers are investing $1Bn in the 2016 election?  They want their tax breaks.  For guys who make $10Bn a year, knocking their taxes down just 10% over an 8-year presidency is worth $8Bn to them – that's a good return on their investment! 

SPX WEEKLYMeanwhile, we see clear signs that the Top 1% have been pulling their cash out of the markets (why do you think bond prices are so ridiculously low?) and we have pulled our cash out of our Member Portfolios, which are up a ridiculous 60%+ in 16 months as we, too, benefit from the Fed's wealth transfer program (thank you poor people).  

At the moment, we're positioned short and expecting a correction.  As noted yesterday, we're short /ES (S&P Futures) at 2,100 and /TF (Russell Futures) at 1,260 with very tight stops above.  This morning, the Dollar was smacked down to 98 (down 0.6%) to give the impression that the Futures were stronger than they actually are (as they re-price with the Dollar) and we took quick advantage of that in our Member Chat Room.  


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  1. Phil, as to being mugged for your Aapl watch, I believe it needs to stay paired with your IPhone for apple pay to work for the perp.  So give up the watch, I think  safeguards are in place. 

  2. Every time I place a futures order this is what OptionsXpress tells me now…thanks for the warning!

    "The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial.

    You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. "

  3. Phil / CIM – I remember you waiting for a buying opportunity on CIM. Looks like it is getting low in channel again. 

  4. Good Morning!

  5. lol, Jeffdoc. Where did they get that, off a cigarette package?

  6. Good morning!  

    So many earnings reports are missing revenues but beating earnings.  

    Speaking of Financial Engineering – check out FB's GAAP vs Non-GAAP performance.  Not even the same company!  

    They dressed Cramer up and he's in full manic mode this morning – someone is trying to prop things up into the weekend.  

    It's working with oil – $56.71 and yes, that is tempting but remember our lines are $57.75, $57.20, $56.65 and $56.37 (the halfway point from $55) and $56.37 holding (even though it failed a little) is still bullish and that makes under $57.20 still the low end of the bullish range.  Since we don't feel bullish, though, we just won't play.  Hopefully we do get a pop to $57.20, where a short with a stop at $57.27 could be fun.  

    I still like 4,440 as a shorting spot for the Nas but right out if it pops over as it's not a great line (4,460 is much better).  No shorts if the Dollar is below 98, of course!  

    LOL Jeff – Well, a lot of people need that warning, actually.  

    Stock futures slip as earnings roll in

    • Stocks are on track for a modestly lower open following disappointing Flash PMI readings from China, Japan and major European economies; Dow -0.4%, S&P -0.3%, Nasdaq-0.2%.
    • Major European indexes trade lower across the board, with Germany's DAX (-1.3%) leading the decline; Asian markets ended mixed following China's weaker than expected PMI report that showed manufacturing activity slipping to a one-year low, but the Shanghai Composite rose 0.4%.
    • In the U.S., quarterly earnings reported since yesterday's close have been mixed, with several major names reporting Y/Y declines in revenue, including Dow components 3M, Caterpillar and Procter & Gamble.
    • Treasury prices are slightly higher, with the benchmark 10-year yield lower by a basis point at 1.97%.
    • Still ahead: PMI manufacturing flash, new home sales, EIA natural gas inventory

    BoJ QE Exit "Out Of The Question," Former Official Says As Morgan Stanley Talks JGB Liquidity

    We're Just Learning the True Cost of China's Debt. (videoThe true cost of the debt that China's real estate developers peddled to eager international investors during a five-year property boom is now becoming clear. Having found themselves shut out of local bond and loan markets seven years ago, a band of developers began looking elsewhere for funds. First an initial public offering, and then a dollar bond sale. It became a well-trodden path. By 2010, a core group of four — Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd., Fantasia Holdings Group Co., Renhe Commercial Holdings Co., Glorious Property Holdings Ltd. — raised a total of $5.6 billion. On Monday, Kaisa buckled under $10.5 billion of debt and defaulted. 

    China government firm’s default shocks market — Is more to come

    China Has A Massive Debt Problem", And Why It Is About Get Much Massiver

    Chinese scientists just admitted to tweaking the genes of human embryos for the first time in history

    Bank of Mexico Governor sees 'asset bubbles' and the 'illusion of liquidity'

    • In addition to the fine, Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) will fire seven employees to settle U.S. and U.K. investigations into the bank's role in rigging Libor.
    • It's the largest penalty so far in the interest rate rigging probes, and comes on top of another €7.1B the bank has paid over the past three years to settle other investigations. There's more to come as regulators look into forex and MBS dealings.
    • Source: Bloomberg
    • Previously: FT: Deutsche decides against total exit from retail banking (April 23)

    BB&T misses as margins get squeezed

    • Q1 net income of $488M or $0.67 per share vs. $496M and $0.68 one year ago. Pretax merger charges cut net income by $0.01 per share.
    • Net interest income of $1.347B vs. $1.383B a year ago, with NIM of 3.33% slipping 19 basis points. The annualized yield on the loan portfolio of 4.23% fell 35 basis points.
    • Noninterest income of $997M vs. $927M a year ago, with mortgage banking income of $110M up from $74M. Service charges on deposits of $145M slipped from $150M.
    • Noninterest expense of $1.422B vs. $1.385B a year ago. Personnel expense of $830M vs. $782M.
    • CET1 ratio of 10.5%
    • CEO Kelly King: "Given the challenges of the current rate environment, I am pleased with our financial performance."
    • Earnings call at 8 ET
    • Previously: BB&T misses by $0.02, misses on revenue (April 23)
    • BBT flat premarket

    PulteGroup -7.8% as Q1 results disappoint

    • Q1 net income of $55M or $0.15 per share vs. $75M and $0.19 a year ago.
    • Home sales revenue of $1.1B as closings decline 2% to 3,365 homes, and ASP rises 2% to $323K.
    • Net new orders of 5,139 homes up 6% in units, up 6% in value.
    • Community count of 613 up 5%.
    • Gross margin of 22.7% down 110 basis points.
    • Backlogs of 7,624 homes up 6%. ASP in backlog of $336K is flat from a year ago.
    • Repurchased 4.6M shares during quarter at average price of $21.75 each for total of $100M.
    • Conference call at 8:30 ET
    • Previously: PulteGroup misses by $0.05, misses on revenue (April 23)
    • PHM -7.8% premarket


    Oil slump may deepen as US shale fights Opec to a standstillContinental's Harold Hamm says US shale industry has 'only begun to scratch the surface' of vast and cheap reserves, driving growth for years to come.

    Brazil’s Petrobras(PBR) Reports Nearly $17 Billion in Asset and Corruption Charges. State-run oil company writes off $2.1 billion of alleged bribe payments.

    • China will scrap export duties on rare earths and some metal products.
    • Export duties will be removed on a wide variety of metal products, including those on rare earths, molybdenum, tungsten and some aluminum products, effective May 1.
    • Beijing is attempting to boost exports, which fell 15% year-over-year in March.
    • Currently, China levies export duties between 15% and 20% on rare earths products while molybdenum products carry export duties of 5% to 20%.

    GM under pressure after reporting profit below expectations

    • General Motors (NYSE:GM) missed earnings estimates after Q1 results in parts of Europe and Brazil acted as a drag.
    • EBIT-adjusted totals by operating segment: GM North America +$2.182B, GM Europe -$239M, GM International +$371M, GM South America -$214M, GM Financial +$214M.
    • The automaker reported its total global market share fell 10 bps to 11.0% with one of the biggest slips in the U.S. cars category.
    • North America capacity utilization stood at 100.5% at the end of the quarter vs. 104.4% a year ago.
    • Recall and restructuring costs were also a factor during the quarter.
    • GM backed its previous guidance with the Q1 report.
    • Previously: General Motors slides 3.1% on earning miss
    • GM -3.23% premarket to $35.96
    • Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) posted a record revenue tally for Q1 off of a 6.2% increase in passenger revenue and double-digit gain in freight revenue.
    • Passenger revenue per available seat mile fell 0.7% to $0.1616.
    • Available seat miles (capacity) +6.0% to 32,297B.
    • Load factor +80 bps to 80.1%.
    • Average fare +0.7% to $158.01.
    • Total operating expenses fell 8% to $3.6B even as flights were added.
    • Economic fuel cost savings of $450M were struck during the quarter as the average price per gallon fell to 35.1% to $2.00.
    • LUV +1.28% premarket to $43.44.


    • Alaska Air Group (NYSE:ALK) reports passenger revenue increased 5% to $1.087B inQ1.
    • Total operating expenses fell 5% as the aircraft fuel expense (including hedging) was down 34% Y/Y.
    • Passenger revenue per available seat miles fell 5.7% to $0.1174 during the quarter.
    • Capacity was up 9.1% to 7.723B miles.
    • Load factor (mainline and regional) -130 bps to 83.4%.
    • Previously: Alaska Air beats by $0.02, revenue in-line
    • Excluding restructuring costs, Q1 earnings of $1.86 per share vs. $1.61 one year ago. This year's Q1 includes a pretax gain of $0.14 per share from the sale of a business.
    • CEO Doug Oberhelman: "Energy & Transportation turned in another great quarter, although we don't expect this to continue due to the oil-related portion of the business."
    • 2015 outlook for sales and revenues is unchanged at about $50B, but EPS guidance is boosted to $4.70-$5.00 per share from $4.60-$4.75, excluding restructuring costs, which are now expected to be about $250M vs. $100M previously.
    • Previously: Caterpillar beats by $0.51, beats on revenue (April 23)
    • CAT +4.6% premarket
    • Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX): Q1 EPS of -$0.06 beats by $0.01.
    • Revenue of $4.15B (-16.7% Y/Y) beats by $90M.
    • Press Release

    PepsiCo widens margins in Q1 on organic volume gains

    • PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP) reports organic revenue rose 4.4% in Q1.
    • Organic volume rose 2% for Frito-Lay North America.
    • Developing and emerging market organic revenue increased 10% during the quarter. On a reported basis the mark was -12% due to F/X.
    • Revenue growth by segment: Frito-Lay North America +3% to $3.32B; Quaker Foods North America +1% to $639M; Latin America Foods -4% to $1.28B; PepsiCo Americas flat at $4.43B; Europe -25% to $1.48B; AMEA +2.5% to $1.07B.
    • Operating profit +7% to $902M at Frito-Lay North America with no F/X overhang while Europe (-34%) and Quaker Foods North America (-38%) lagged.
    • Core gross margin +150 bps.
    • Total core operating margin +20 bps.
    • Guidance: PepsiCo expects mid-single-digit organic revenue growth. EPS growth of 7% forecast.
    • PEP -1.1% premarket

    Improved results for Cheesecake Factory in Q1

    • Cheescake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE) reports comparable-restaurant sales increased 4.2% in Q1 on increases in traffic.
    • Total costs and expenses as a percentage of revenue fell 100 bps to 92.1%.
    • The company expect to open 11 company-owned U.S. restaurants this fiscal year and as many as three in the Middle East and Mexico.
    • Previously: The Cheesecake Factory beats by $0.08, misses on revenue


    • 3M (NYSE:MMM) -3.2% premarket after Q1 earnings and revenues fail to meet expectations, and the company cut its 2015 profit outlook, due to the impact of the stronger U.S. dollar.
    • After foreign currency impacts reduced Q1 pre-tax earnings by ~$90M, or the equivalent of $0.10/share, 3M now expects foreign currency impacts to reduce FY 2015 EPS by $0.35-$0.40, compared with its previous guidance for a $0.20 hit; the company now sees FY 2015 EPS of $7.80-$8.10.
    • As for 2015 revenue, 3M now expects it to fall by 6%-7% Y/Y, worse than its previous forecast of a 4%-5%; analysts had expected FY 2015 revenue to rise less than 1% to $32B.
    • 3M maintains its forecast for organic local currency sales growth of 3%-6%.
    • Q1 sales slipped in most of 3M's business units, falling 4.3% to $2.7B at its industrial unit, 3.6% to $1.4B in its safety and graphics business, 3.3% to $1.3B in its health care unit, and 2.9% to $1B at its consumer unit; only the company's electronics and energy unit reported a sales increase, rising less than 1% to $1.3B.

    Sands China Shares Drop as Macau Downturn Causes Forecasts Miss. Sands China Ltd. dropped to a month low in Hong Kong trading after the Macau casino operator reported worse-than-expected earnings and its billionaire chairman Sheldon Adelson said he’s uncertain about the industry’s recovery. The stock fell 3.5 percent to HK$31.45 as of 9:35 a.m., the lowest intraday level since March 20. The other five casino companies in the city also fell with SJM Holdings Ltd. and Wynn Macau Ltd. losing more than 2.3 percent.

    • Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLYQ1 results ($M): Net Product Sales: 4,644.7 (-0.8%); Animal Health: 749.8 (+42.2%); Net Income: 529.5 (-27.3%); EPS: 0.50 (-26.5%); Operating Earnings: 889.2 (+2.7%).
    • Key Product Sales: Humalog: 684.0 (+5.2%); Alimta: 573.0 (-9.3%); Cialis: 538.3 (+1.1%); Humulin: 315.7 (-0.2%); Forteo: 293.0 (-2.5%); Cymbalta: 287.0 (-40.0%) Zyprexa: 219.5 (-22.5%); Strattera: 173.7 (+12.5%).
    • 2015 Guidance: Total Revenues: $19.5B – 20.0B (unch); EPS: $2.21 – 2.31 from $2.40 – 2.50; Non-GAAP EPS: $3.10 – 3.20 (unch).

    Qualcomm(QCOM) Forecasts Fall Short After Samsung Business LossQualcomm Inc., whose chips power most of the world’s smartphones, forecast fiscal third-quarter sales and profit that may miss estimates as customers turn to rivals for key components or make their own parts. Net income in the current period will be 67 cents to 82 cents a share on revenue of $5.4 billion to $6.2 billion, the San Diego-based company said Wednesday in a statement. On average, analysts had estimated earnings of 99 cents on sales of $6.46 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    Holy Crap! That's 10% of the Float!  Seagate announces new $2.5B share buyback authorization

    • Seagate's (NASDAQ:STX) board has authorized it to repurchase up to $2.5B of its outstanding ordinary shares.
    • As a result, Seagate currently has an aggregate authority to repurchase $3.1B  of its ordinary shares.
    • Source: Press Release

  7. CIM/Pfehl – Well, this isn't much of a pullback yet. Back near $14.50 ($2.90 pre-split) I'd be excited.  

    Wow, the Nas popped green very fast.  4,450 already.  /ES back to test 2,100 and the Dollar is rising so what the hell, I'll short a few – just in case.  

    Oil $57.05 slowing down.  Hopefully a bit higher ahead of Nat Gas and then down.  

  8. BRCM at $46.20 but not much of a move considering the earnings.  Obviously, I WISH I owned them for $40 so there's no reason on earth not to sell the 10 of the 2017 $40 puts for $3.70 in the LTP to pay for a couple of weeks at the beach this summer.  

  9. Cramer was pumping up FB in particular, and pumping it very hard.

  10. CLF up today. 

    LQMT jumping back over 0.14 – I still like them for 0.25.  

    AAPL has new phones coming in the fall so rumors spring eternal between now and then and that's often good for a nice pop on these guys.  

    BTU down 5% on the nose ($4.60), we'll see if that sticks (it should).  

  11. Phil / CIM – Haha. Looked at the chart on my mobile device and noticed I only had a 3 month window I was looking at. ?

  12. AAPL kamikaze trade – Sold 1/2 up 60%.

  13. albo…..Nice job

  14. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 9:45:00 AM

    Consumer confidence retreated for a second week after reaching an almost eight-year high as lower- and middle-income Americans’ views of their financial well-being dimmed.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  15. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 12:00:01 AM

    April 22 — Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster and Bloomberg’s Cory Johnson discuss Facebook’s first-quarter earnings and mobile strategy with Bloomberg’s Emily Chang on “Bloomberg West.”

    While the Nasdaq Composite Index is creeping up on a record set when software and semiconductors called its tune, the latest leg has been driven by technology that barely existed 15 years ago.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  16. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 9:45:00 AM

      Mohamed Yohan checks bicycle wheel stability at Worksman Cycles in the Queens borough of New York. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

    The Markit Economics preliminary index of U.S. manufacturing decreased to a three-month low of 54.2 in April from 55.7, the London-based group said Thursday.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  17. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 10:00:02 AM

    Purchases of new U.S. homes slumped more than forecast in March from a seven-year high, a sign progress in the industry will be halting.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  18. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 6:00:16 AM


    One of the most productive oil fields ever discovered in Oklahoma lies directly beneath its seat of government. A 32-square-mile underground reservoir, the Oklahoma City oil field was first tapped in 1928, a decade after the State Capitol building was finished. Some of its earliest wells were famous gushers, spouting oil hundreds of feet into the air for days before being brought under control. Over the next three decades the field produced close to a billion barrels of oil, helping Oklahoma weather the Great Depression and Dust Bowl and securing its ties to the energy industry.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  19. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 9:39:33 AM

    Deutsche Bank has just been hit with a $2.5 billion fine for manipulating Libor, the interbank lending rate that is linked to trillions of dollars of financial contracts.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  20. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 9:38:43 AM

    The euro rose on speculation that Greece and its creditors will reach a deal to receive aid payments before the country runs out of money.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  21. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 9:16:29 AM

    The best start for European equities in 17 years has left at least one group unconvinced: stock analysts.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  22. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 9:15:34 AM

    Mexico consumer prices fell more than expected in the first half of April, as the government phased in electricity discounts and pressure from a weaker currency remained limited.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  23. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 8:56:52 AM

    China Eastern Airlines Corp., the Shanghai-based carrier, is seeking about 14.8 billion yuan ($2.4 billion) in a share sale to purchase 23 aircraft and repay loans.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  24. Looks like TASR's going to sit between 29 and 29.5 until earnings on 4/30.

  25. Nice spike down on the Dollar to goose oil into nat gas inventories, which were +90 and not good.  So /CL is a good short at $57.50 again.  Dollar 97.70 for reference.  /ES right on 2,100 – also fun short.  

  26. Phil--do you have an opinion on NRF?

    They do have options.

    Maybe, a little too late in the game?

  27. very weak dip on UCO through this rollover period. I was hoping for an entry below 8 or certainly 8.50, but it looks like oil has officially put in a bottom and stabilized

  28. Phil – Check out IBM. :-)

  29. phil, dollar being pushed down is helping oil /cl towards 58…just the boyzs in the pits messing with us?  

  30. possibly pick up some TXN down here

  31. Speaking of CIM – here's an interesing one we can add to the LTP.  ARR manages MBS's and pays a 0.04 MONTHLY dividend at $3.17.  That's 15% a year because the company is down 25% on fears of rate hikes hurting their returns.  Earnings are 5/4 and they popped about 0.20 after Jan earnings showed a turnaround so I like adding some here and you can't argue with the price.  

    In the LTP, let's buy 3,000 shares of ARR for $3.17 and sell the Jan (longest they have) $3 calls for 0.25 and sell the $3 puts for 0.25 and that nets us in for $2.67/2.84.  So we'll be laying our net $8,010 and collecting $120/month, $1,440/yr in dividends and, if called away, that's another $990 in our pocket.  

    This is just a test entry to see how these guys play over time…

    AAPL/Albo – At $130 I hope you took it and ran!  

    Dollar 97.60 and oil kicking up to $57.75.

    NRF/Jabob – Another nice dividend payer.  I like that they specialize in health care, which is a growing part of the sector.  They just went through a secondary that knocked them down but a quick recovery indicated people have faith in them and they've done great for investors over the past few years.  

    At $18.86, they pay $1.60 back, which is 8.5% and you can buy the stock and sell the 2017 $17 calls for $2.35, which is good premium for a dividend-payer like these guys, and you can sell the $15 puts for $1.80 and net in for $14.71/14.86 so your worst case is 2x at a 21% discount and otherwise, if called away at $17, you get 7x 0.40 in dividends = $2.80 + $2.29 profit at $17 = $5.09 = 34.6%.  That's a good rate of return!  cheeky

    If you own a lot of REITS, you may want to consider a hedge using TLT or TYO, which is a 3x bear on TLT which, surprisingly, doesn't have all that much decay.  It's opposite, TYD, on the other hand, sucks as an ultra – barely keeping up with TLT.

    Maybe it's better to go short TYD, since decay is inevitable?  The options, unfortunately, only go out to November but the Nov $50s are just $4.60 and you can sell the $46s for $2.25 so that's net $2.35 for the $4 spread that's $2.50 in the money to start.  

    Going with TYO, on the other hand, the Nov $19 calls are just 0.45 and they can double up very fast on a move down in TLT (delta 0.29) so, rather than put $2,350 into the TYD spread and hoping you get your max gain of $1,650, I'd rather put $1,800 into 40 TYO Nov 19s which can triple on a 15% rise in TYO, which would be a 5% drop in TLT, back to $122ish.  

    Remember – it's a HEDGE – it's insurance (that we expect to LOSE) against losing on one of the REIT plays we discussed today – it's NOT a bet so, tempting though it may be – we're not going to put it in the STP because we only have one tiny REIT play.  

    Oil/BDC – We shall see.  I think $50 needs to be tested one more time before the end of May.  

    IBM/Albo – Another Financial Engineering champ.  

    Dollar/Jasu – Works like a charm though, doesn't it?  

  32. CL- Not sure what is pushing oil up but brent hit 65 and still up over $2 for the day.

  33. Phil – Nope still in 1/2.  Stop at 1.25.

  34. Oil up inexplicably and I wonder what is keeping silver and gold from popping today. Phil do you have anythoughts on what is keeping silver and gold from moving up more than the little bit they have so far today? Is it fear of Greece situation blowing up still? IS there something else pressuring the prices down?

  35. Yes, that's a 400-point drop in the Hang Seng into the close:

    And we're back to ignoring weak EU markets:

    Turns out WSJ only killed these charts on their main page.  They are still on the Europe page.  

    97.50 on the Buck!  Europ flying to $1.081 from $1.065 early this morning.  Pound $1.505.  119.6 Yen to the buck and /NKD not liking that too much, back at 20,160.  

    Gasoline flying to $1.99+ – getting ready for Summer Driving Season.

    Brent up 3% at $23.63 and /CL up exactly the same 3% now at $57.95.  

    Oil/Traderd – Still the Yemen thing.  For those of you who care about facts: 

    • Saudi Arabia:  31M people, $777Bn GDP, 830,000 sq miles.   Per capita GDP = $25,401. 
    • Yemen:  28M people, $58Bn GDP, 203,000 sq miles.  Per capita GDP = $2,249.  

    Saudi-led coalition launches air strikes throughout Yemen: residents

    These are the Houthi rebels (in Yemen), who are Hezbollah (the picture is the Hezbollah leader), the guys people in the US think Israel should leave alone.  The Saudis are supporting Yemen's existing puppet government and claim that they are only striking back where Houthis are attacking.  

    This is the American Dream for the NRA folks – Everybody got guns!  

    Silver and gold/Craigs – I think it's because the move down in the Dollar is obviously fake so no affect on things other than oil, where those traders are pushing down the Dollar to pop resistance ($57.75).   Now we'll see if they can keep it up there.  

  36. ARR/Phil

    Can you clarify this trade. Is there a BCS here? I understand the STO Jan 2016 $3 calls for 0.25 and the STO Jan 2016 puts for 0.25. Is that the entire trade? Thank You.


    Available soon…. I need to get a second job!  :)

  38. Big spike to the upside on the Indicies! What's driving that?

  39. Phill I have 1000 DBA shares… Have you a suggestion on a position please … 

  40. Phil – Did you stop out of any shorts or doubling down?

  41. HondaJet/1020:

    And at the barn-door-busting low price of $4.5M..  ;)

  42. I am out by the way. Lucky to have some profits!

  43. Someone goosed those indexes all at the same time???

  44. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 6:00:00 AM


    Think the U.S. is awash in crude now? Thank the fracklog that it’s not worse.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  45. even with the scandals I knew PBR was way too undervalued. I knew it I knew it. Awesome! May have a "PBR" tonight in celebration….

  46. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 11:05:07 AM

      Workers manufacture cotton yarn at a factory in Dali county, Shaanxi province, China. Premier Li Keqiang has flagged the labor market as key, pledging last month to step in to support the economy if the slowdown hurts jobs and wages. Photographer: Nelson Ching/Bloomberg

    Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indexes disappointed everywhere today.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  47. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 8:00:23 AM


    Ivan Reitman produced and directed the hit 1984 comedy Ghostbusters and its sequel five years later. Now the longtime Hollywood player has bigger plans—for a whole ghostbusting universe. He’s working on the Sony Pictures Entertainment lot with Dan Aykroyd, one of the franchise’s original stars; director Paul Feig; and a bevy of new comedians, led by Kristen Wiig and Melissa McCarthy, in an all-female version of the story. To help guide him, Reitman has created a bible (an in-depth rundown of characters, history, and rules for their fictional world) to refer to as he produces the film, slated for a July 2016 release. His new Ghost Corps production company will use the same playbook as it churns out TV shows, character merchandise, and possibly an animated feature based on the ghost-hunting Ph.D.s.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  48. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 8:16:41 AM

    April 23 — Caterpillar forecast profit for 2015 that topped analysts’ estimates as North American sales improved and as the company cuts costs. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Karen Ubelhart reports on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

    Caterpillar, the maker of construction and mining equipment, came out with earnings this morning that topped analyst expectations, thanks in part to solid sales in North America.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  49. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 9:00:02 AM

    Neither seems very interested.

    During the past few years, I have referred to market breadth as one of the more important metrics of the stock market’s health. As we close in on new highs in the cumulative advance-decline line, it is time to revisit this internal indicator.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  50. From Bloomberg, Apr 22, 2015, 9:07:00 PM

      Turkeys stand in a barn at a poultry farm in Minnesota. The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Wednesday confirmed that avian influenza was found in 13 turkey flocks in Minnesota with at least 430,300 birds. Source: Bethany Hahn via AP Photo

    Deadly bird flu swelled in the poultry industry in Minnesota and neighboring Wisconsin amid speculation that winds may be carrying virus particles into facilities housing turkeys and chickens.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  51. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 12:08:29 PM

    Advances in EBay Inc. and Microsoft Inc. briefly propelled the Nasdaq Composite Index past its all-time closing high, leaving the gauge at the brink of a record for the first time since the dot-com crash in 2000.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at



  52. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 11:35:20 AM

      Dunkin’ Brands Group Inc. and Domino’s Pizza Inc. reported first-quarter sales that topped analysts’ estimates as expanded menus — with new items such as bacon-topped breaded chicken and spicy omelet sandwiches — helped bring in more customers. Photographer: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg

    Americans still love junk food.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  53. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 11:06:30 AM

    A construction crane stands on a residential building site as solar panels sit on the rooftops of houses in Walldorf. Germany’s planned decade-long, 120 billion-euro ($127 billion) shift to cleaner energy from fossil fuels has made the nation the biggest economy in the world to rely so heavily on renewable power. Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg

    Germany’s cost of producing solar energy has shrunk to about a third of the price households pay for power after the nation made developers compete for subsidies.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  54. The Basic Principles of Strategy Haven’t Changed in 30 Years / Andrew Campbell

    Almost every time I teach the basic concepts of strategy — the five forces framework or the principles of competitive advantage — I get the same questio…

  55. The Industries Plagued by the Most Uncertainty / Jeff Dyer

    It’s a cliché to say that the world is more uncertain than ever before, but few realize just how much uncertainty has increased over the past 50 years. …

  56. Shocking Photos of Chile's Calbuco Volcano Eruption / Jill Krasny

    One of Earth’s most destructive events is a sight to see. For the first time in 43 years, Chile’s Calbuco volcano erupted. Twice. In 24 hours. The ruptu…

  57. Elizabeth Warren slams Obama for “rigging” secret trade deal to benefit corporate lobbyists / Scott Eric Kaufman

    “When the process is rigged,” she told Rachel Maddow, “the outcome’s likely to be rigged too” On “The Rachel Maddow Show” last night, Senator Elizabeth …

  58. LQMT – Anybody know anything about Turing phones?


    CALGARY (Reuters) – Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce CM.TO is in talks with several U.S. companies on a potential $2 billion wealth-management and p…

  60. New Home Sales Down 11.4% Overall, 15.8% in South; Median Price Declines

    The Bloomberg consensus estimate for new homes sales was an overly-optimistic 518,000. Instead, it’s bad news again as new home sales fell a very steep …

  61. Not an investment strategy but hoping we are at the top of that roller coaster. At the upper limit of our index channels. We break up for a new bull run or break down and confirm the trading channel we have been in. Run up was on half the volume of Tuesday mornings down move. If feels like a squeeze on the weak shorts to me.

  62. Nevada Minimum Wage Hike Surprisingly Pits Business Against Labor / RILEY SNYDER

    CARSON CITY, Nev. (AP) — Nevada business and labor groups are split over a proposed measure that would raise the state’s minimum wage but make it more d…

  63. China's mobile gaming market is blowing up / Dale North, VentureBeat

    According to a report research firm SuperData released today, China’s digital game market hit $7.5 billion in revenues already. The country ranks No. 2 …

  64. Assessing The Potential Risk Of A Greek Government Default [INFOGRAPHIC] / Posted By: VW Staff

    BREAKING NEWS Assessing The Potential Risk Of A Greek Government Default [INFOGRAPHIC] • Aswath Damodaran Session 21: Real Options – Introduction & Va…

  65. AAPL – Out of last 1/2 @ 1.93.

  66. Seems a concerted effort to keep (oil) /CL above $58 a barrel. Nice and steady manipulation of the dollar downward to help the indexes and oil? Where does this stupidity end? This f*ing market is a casino?

  67. These guys at CNBC are a joke…say anything to fit the curve.

  68. oil/jasu don't get caught being a perma-bear. Everything goes up eventually, especially something needed to power the 1 billion cars worldwide on the road today and 100,000 daily commercial flights. Oil is nearly half what it was this time last year; who's to say $75 is the current fair-market price?

  69. Germany DAX hit a high of 12,391 on Friday April 10th and closed today at 11,724. Down over 5.5%. QE not the answer to their problems and maybe a little more concern about Greek outcome. We are going to get some bad news here that will send other markets tumbling. 

  70. Holy crap, it's snowing!    

    It was 80 this weekend.  

    I was looking for news to explain the markets popping, but I see none.  Dollar 97.50 still.  Oil still $58.

    ARR/Hex – No, you have to buy the stock too!  Because of the dividend, it's worth owning the stock.  

    Honday/1020 – So funny to buy a cool-looking jet, for the 10 people who will see it.  Does look very cool, though but I would wait at least a year before buying a jet from a manufacturer without experience.  

    DBA/Tri – I see cocao getting short and other things due to drought so I'd hold strong, though they don't pay a dividend so I'd cash the $ 22.40 ($22,400) and sell 10 of the Jan $22 puts for $1 because what's the difference, it's the same 1,000 shares you have now, only for $1.40 less than you have now?  Then I'd take my shiny $1,000 and the $22,400 I just cashed and pick up 20 of the $21 calls at $2 ($4,000).  So now you have $19,400 in your pocket, an obligation to buy 1,000 DBA at $22 (if it's below, of course) and you make 0.20 of every penny of the move over $21, currently $4,800 which means, through a bit of financial engineering, we have already turned your $22,400 worth of DBA stock into $19,400 in cash + $4,800 in options = $24,200.  Also, we've doubled your upside potential and now your risk (other than if $19,400 is less cash than you started with) just owning DBA at $22 again.  Nice, right?  

    Shorts/Tradrd – Do you mean /ES?  I have 5 short avg 2,101 and we're 10 up and I would DD around 2,120 but not much tolerance above that.  On oil I'm now 10 short at $57.86 avg but little tolerance for a move back over $88.  

    Goosed/Pirate – That's putting it mildly.  Looks like Chinese markets out there.  Reminds me of this scetch from the weekend.

    PBR/BDC – I think now that there's a number on it, people can finally arb it out.  

    Turing/Snow – I wonder where they are getting the material from.  No info on their company site, which is very sketchy.  I've never heard LQMT call their stuff liquidmorpheum either.  

    Squeeze/Den – Whatever it is, they are really working those levers.  

    AAPL/Albo – Nice job. 

    Where does it end/Jasu – Well, Dollar 97.37 now.  How low can it go.  Greece is "fixed" yet again so time for the Euro to rally, which let's Draghi come out with more easing.   

    /NG just bounced off our long line around $2.50 ($2.525).  Either oil comes back down or /NG goes back up, I think.  

    DAX/Den – We're just shugging that off.  I guess 2007/8 taught us that it's OK to ignore foreign markets as if they don't affect you?  

  71. ARR -The great disappearing dividend :

    ARR dividends       Year
    1.52                        2110

    1.41                        2111

    1.20                        2112

    0.81                        2113

    0.60                        2114

    Phil – Doesn't look like a good investment to me, but with the extra income from the sale of options, you must feel like it's a good spec.  I'm game for a small position.

  72. /TF I'm shorting aggressively at 1270…we'll see how that goes.

  73. Phil// When CNBC news is telling you to sell, doesn't that mean they are forcing the retail investor to sell and get out while the big money can swoop in the stocks at a lower price?


  74. Phil:

    Still like TZA as a hedge but my Apr $9 calls expire tomorrow. Bought back the short puts and made ~$200. Thinking I'll wait until tomorrow with calls, in case of drop, or let them assign me 1000 TZA at $9. 

    Then I could sell some short calls against the stock?


  75. Phil are you still short oil or did you get out on the move back over 58? 

  76. Phil,

    I have 2 at $57.89 on /CL short…would you go overnight on these or take your loss and play another day? I do not have any preference, because we have 25 days on this contract. Your advice appreciated! Thanks

  77. Brent and WTIC for the Year:

    Looks like we're still way behind Brent gains.  

    EIA's Drilling Productivity Report predicts May tight production below April's level

    Embedded image permalink

    US Oil Production May Not Drop In Earnest Until 2016

    The US refinery market is approaching the limits of its ability to absorb incremental, domestic production.

    Top 10 net exporters will lose around US$500bn in earnings compared with 2014

    Why oil industry chiefs believe a turnaround in prices could come faster than markets expect

    Oil companies are on the hook for nearly 1/4 of the overheated $1.2 trillion high-yield & leveraged loan market:

    The cost of Brazil's oil corruption

    Rising stockpiles, China data temper gains for oil

    Fear not, oil and gas industry: Mark Begich hasn't forsaken you in his new job

    Embedded image permalink

    ARR/Albo – They have such a different mix now, you can't compare.  In 2012 it was a $7 stock so 17% then.  What happened in 2012 is a new CFO came on board and they floated $55M shares ($412M) in stock, dilluting the company by 1/3 and, of course, their timing wasn't so good since they bought a lot of securities into declining rates.  The led them to make less than they planned but their cash-flow is solid and they've been buying back $2Bn worth of stock in 2013 and 2014 and paying out $250M in dividends – cerainly not in trouble.  

    /TF/Jeff – I agree but I'm stuck in /ES at the moment (and /CL).  Still for those of you who didn't jump the gun, we got our /TF short entry at 1,170, which is worth a shot.  

    CNBC/Rookie – CNBC is talking to retail investors at the behest of their Bankster and Oil Company sponsors.  Anyway, that was yesterday and today we're rallying, right?  It's AN indicator, not THE indicator.  They print a lot of articles, a lot of them contradictory.  I pay more attention to the tone of the day's guests.  

    Ah, feeling better abou tmy oil short now.  

    TZA/Wing – Unless you have the weeklies, your April $9s expired last week!   I agree that I'd stay short into tomorrow now but shame on your for not taking $1.15 last Friday, when we were closing out most of our STP shorts.  Now they are 0.60, down 50%.  Keep in mind TZA, like StJ's VXX, is in a state of constant decay – it's not ideal for a long-term hold.  That's why we generally do bull call spreads but, even then, we don't tend to go to long on them.  

    Oil/Craigs – I'm lazy, still short and waiting to see what 2:35 brings. 

    Oil/Jasu – Would I go overnight?  If I can get back to 5 even at $57.85 (and it looks like I can), then I don't mind going overnight but bear in mind that, if I lose $10,000 on a $2 move against me – it means I get a smaller cabin in November on my boat trip – not that I miss a mortgage payment or something!  

    My logic on oil is that this is all they can do on a Dollar that's down about 1.25% since yesterday:

    The oil move is often 2x to the Dollar intra-day so an 0.60 bounce in the Dollar (50% retrace) could get me 0.50+ in oil and, since we're in at the top of the range and I THINK down is easier than up – I consider it a 60/40 chance of winning vs. losing, which is a gamble I'm willing to take since I really don't see any news to support $58 – especially since that's up 30% from $45 a month ago.  

    I also don't see a particulary good reason for the Dollar to go lower since Greece isn't really fixed and the Fed is not as likely to ease more as the ECB or BOJ or PBOC so why should the Dollar be getting weaker other than today's quick relief rally as Greece buys another month?

  78. Phil – Thanks for info on ARR,

  79. SA/Jabob – Yes, they reached out to us and we decided to give it a shot for a while and see how it goes.  

    You're welcome Albo.  

    $57.75 again!  cool

  80. OK – Now I have a profit so I can't go overnight because now I would be taking a risk for no reason at all so it all stops out over $57.75 (0.10 trailing below that) with a small profit on the day (but I pressed /ES to 2,105 avg).  

  81. Phil, got out with a small profit….every little bit helps. Thanks

  82. This is what I'm protecting:

  83. See how useful those 5% lines are.  Bounced right off $57.75, which we could have told you would happen a week ago.  It's also why I didn't mind adding when we popped over – the line was likely to be retested so I just got my average up over that line and waited until the money came in.  

    We just hit $58 again so back in for a small poke (short /CL).   Nothing has changed other than a small bounce off a strong support line – that's not that bullish, is it? 

  84. Very nice!! What boat is that on? 

  85. Nice cabin, Phil.  …..but could they change the carpet ?

  86. Well, looks like NHOTC.  What a piece of beautiful art we have in this market.  Frame it.  Love it or hate it, someone is making a crapload of money.  How about you?

  87. It's the Disney boat, 1 Br cabin.  I've had it before, it's great.  Didn't notice the carpet being that bad, they must have changed it.  By the way, I hugely recommend Disney cruises for people with kids 5-15, we've had several great trips.  

  88. Comcast dropped the TWX deal!  That's going to put other deals into question (increased risk of process time wasted).  

  89. Nice digs, for sure.

  90. Stiglitz/Albo – I had a great time with him at the Buttonwood conference. We sat with Mervin King (BOE Gov at the time) cracking jokes and making fun of the speakers. He's a really cool guy and super-smart.  

  91. Wow, another sharp spike up to get the markets higher – what are they trying to prove?  

  92. Spike/Phil – pull the suckers in and drop it like a rock overnight. Rinse, repeat.

    • Barrick Gold (ABX +2.8%) says it will resume operations at its Lumwana copper mine in Zambia, reversing an earlier decision to halt production after the government softened a royalty-based tax system.
    • Pres. Lungu’s administration recently approved a 30% profit tax and 9% royalty due to start July 1 – higher than the 6% sales levy of last year but better than royalties of 8% for underground mines and 20% for open-pit operations the government began charging in January.
    • Separately, Chile's environmental regulator says he will seek new sanctions against ABX's Pascua-Lama gold and silver project for non-compliance with certain obligations; the regulator already fined ABX $16M in 2013 for not complying with environmental requirements at Pascua-Lama, which was put on hold indefinitely later that year.
    • Boeing (BA -0.6%) may have to relocate U.S.-based engineering and manufacturing jobs overseas if Congress eliminates funding for the U.S. Export-Import Bank, CEO Jim McNerney says.
    • The CEO says the loss of export credit support would give an advantage to Boeing's overseas competitors, who would still be able to rely on backing from their home agencies.
    • Some of Boeing's 165K engineering and manufacturing jobs in the U.S. as well as some of the ~1.5M jobs in the company's U.S. supply chain could be in jeopardy if U.S. credit support ceased, McNerney says.
    • SouFun (SFUN +9.1%) and Leju (LEJU +8.2%) are adding to the big Wednesday gainsthey saw following a Shanghai rally and bullish Citi/HSBC notes and Chinese real estate. E-House (EJ +8.7%), which rose moderately yesterday, is also sharply higher today.
    • Of note: SouFun saw its short interest fall from 16.1M on March 3 to 7.4M on March 31, while E-House's fell from 2.1M to 1.5M. Leju's rose slightly to 2.7M from 2.6M. With SouFun and E-House (along with Leju) off sharply from their 2014 highs, shorts might be opting to take profits in response to Beijing's stimulus efforts.
    • A casino bill in Japan could be submitted during the current parliamentary session, according to Union Gaming Research.
    • The session is scheduled to end on June 24.
    • Even if Japanese legislators are able to work out a bill this year, it will take a second action in 2016 to sort out licenses, locations, and the all-important question on whether or not local citizens will be allowed to gamble.
    • Tokyo hosts the 2020 Summer Olympics which is seen as a possible revenue bonanza for the gaming industry.
    • Related: Mohegan Sun to gamble in South Korea (April 22)
    • Potential Japan casino players: MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM), Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ:CZR), Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN), Genting, Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS), Melco Crown (NASDAQ:MPEL).


    • Execs with Las Vegas Sands (LVS -2.1%) talked about the "new Macao" during the firm's earnings call last night.
    • They maintained the company is already leading the industry in providing non-gaming entertainment and well-positioned for whatever regulators throw at it.
    • It's also pointed out that although continued margin pressure is expected, gaming tables in Macau still earn double their counterparts in Las Vegas.
    • CEO Sheldon Adelson says the company still aims for 10% annual dividend payout growth, even though the verbiage was dropped from the press release.
    • Earnings call transcript
    • Previously: Revenue decline at Las Vegas Sands worse than forecast (April 22)
    • Weatherford International (WFT +7.2%) springs higher despite reporting Q1 earnings and revenues that came in below expectations, as it expects Q2 to represent the worst of its “miserable” North American results as customers cut spending to make it through the oil downturn.
    • CFO Krishna Shivram said in WFT's earnings conference that the North American unit, which had a Q1 operating loss of $10M, should end the year with an operating profit of as much as high single digits.
    • CEO Bernard Duroc-Danner said the U.S. business was spread thin with too many locations, creating "many layers" of costs, thus the company will raise its planned job cuts from an earlier estimate of 8K to 10K, ~18% of its workforce, with most of its layoffs coming from North America.
    • WFT says it expects to save $640M/year from its cuts, and it plans to shut down or consolidate 60 facilities this year.
    • WFT will cut its 2015 capital budget to $850M from $900M, it also said in the earnings report.
    • Shares of iRobot (IRBT +6.3%) take back some ground lost earlier this week after the company's Q1 earnings and guidance disappointed.
    • Volume on iRobot is 2X normal activity.
    • Earlier this month, activist investor Red Mountain Capital Partners disclosed a 5.1% stake in iRobot and pressed the company to narrow its focus to the Roomba product.
    • Previously: iRobot -6.2% due to soft guidance (April 21)
    • Previously: iRobot beats by $0.06, beats on revenue (April 21)
    • SEC Form 13D
    • Petrobras (PBR +3.6%) shares snap back from sharp opening losses, a day after reporting $17B in charges amid a FY 2014 loss of 21.6B reais ($7.2B), the company's largest-ever loss, in its long-delayed audited results.
    • CEO Aldemir Bendine calls the graft-related losses "recoverable," and expects PBR to begin to receive part of the money back next month.
    • "Considering [PricewaterhouseCoopers] signed off on these results, the market perception is that there are no more surprises ahead," says a partner at Sao Paolo investment firm Humaita in Sao Paulo.
    • Another Brazilian analyst says investors will begin to focus on "excessive leverage,” lower than expected production guidance, and weak oil prices that threaten PBR's investments and planned asset sales.
    • Even though PBR recently denied it is considering putting some of its prized deepwater pre-salt blocks for sale, analysts at Eurasia Group believe such a sale remains a possibility, and expects a ~25% reduction in PBR's investments plans this year.
    • PBR currently has no plans to increase capital or convert debt to equity, a company exec tells investors on a phone conference; the company also says it decided not to pay a dividend on 2014 in 2015 based on the loss but could resume payouts if it gets a positive result in 2015.
    • While the Nasdaq is up 0.3%, chip stocks are selling off (SOXX -1.8%) after Texas InstrumentsXilinx, and Qualcomm all provided soft calendar Q2 guidance. TI and Xilinx also missed Q1 sales estimates, while Qualcomm beat.
    • Decliners include Avago (AVGO -3.7%), Qorvo (QRVO -2.5%), Freescale (FSL -3%), STMicroelectronics (STM -3.6%), Atmel (ATML -2.3%), PMC-Sierra (PMCS -2.5%), Fairchild (FCS -2.2%), Cypress (CY -2.1%), Audience (ADNC -6.6%), IDT (IDTI -4.5%), Vishay (VSH -2.9%), AppliedMicro (AMCC -2.3%), and Cavium (CAVM -4.4%). NXP, ON Semi, Linear, Microchip, and Maxim remain lower after falling AH yesterday.
    • With the decliners including many microcontroller, analog/mixed-signal, and telecom equipment chipmakers, TI (TXN -7.3%) might be the biggest culprit: The analog/DSP giant blamed soft telecom equipment and consumer electronics demand for its numbers, with particular weakness in mobile infrastructure (a 2014 strong point) and PCs; auto and industrial demand was healthier.
    • On its CC (transcript), TI attributed the mobile weakness to delayed carrier capacity upgrades. This morning, mobile infrastructure giant Ericsson posted a Q1 miss blamed in part on weak North American 4G spending.
    • Likewise, Xilinx (XLNX -1.3%), which has strong 4G infrastructure exposure, stated on its CC (transcript) wireless sales were weaker than expected due to "continued softness in North America and a weakening in China LTE business." Wired infrastructure sales were in-line, and other markets outperformed.
    • Qualcomm largely blamed its guidance on the iPhone 6's share gains and a loss of chip share at Samsung, rather than industry demand issues. Altera, Freescale, Maxim, Microsemi, and Synaptics report after the close.
    • 8 days ago: Chip stocks rally following Intel/Linear's earnings
    • Peabody Energy (BTU -7.5%) plunges after reporting a much bigger than expected Q1 loss due to lower prices and declining Chinese demand, and issuing disappointing guidance.
    • BTU says it now expects a Q2 adjusted EPS loss of $0.59-$0.49, vs. analyst consensus estimate for a loss of $0.35.
    • BTU's Australian mining business swung to an operating loss of $24.5M vs. a profit of $1.8M in the year-ago quarter, due to hedging losses; before hedging, Australian operations rose $61.9M from $21M.
    • BTU says U.S. coal generation fell 14%, alongside a 14% increase in natural gas generation, and cuts its 2015 U.S. sales forecast to 180M-190M tons from 190M-200M tons previously.
    • Q1 revenue fell 5.5% Y/Y to $1.54B, due to lower pricing and a shift in U.S. production mix toward the Southern Powder River Basin; sales volume slipped 1.1%.
    • Q1 results include the impact of $103M related to currency and fuel hedging.
    • While Q1 results missed, Citi's Brian Yu believes BTU is "structurally different from its weaker U.S. peers," noting that BTU outlined $685M of potential annual cash improvements by early 2017, including $275M of lower cash payments related to PRB reserves and $335M of savings due to lower currency rates and fuel prices as hedges roll off.

  93. Rock/Snow – You mean like this:  

    This time must be different….

  94. Been on that Disney cruise-didn't expect much, but was pleasantly surprised. Halloween weekend, but spent a lot of time in the workout room trying to work off the extra calorie intake. Great food and the stops in Bahamas etc for walking around the markets was fun. 

  95. CCJ/ Phil.. Hi, i am lng the Jan'16 17/22 call spread.. Worth rolling to in the money strikes out to 2017? Lots of time value in the Jan'16 $17 calls. Thanks

  96. SSRI is a beaten down company that not only produces slv, but zinc of which there is a shortage. Might be worth a look.

  97. Canadian company.

  98. And as you guys thought…they're dropping it like a rock already with a little selling into the close.

  99. They take such good care of the kids – you never have to worry about them.  And the food in the upgrade restaurants was fantastic.  It amazes me how people who pay thousands for cabins and thousands for land excursions don't tend to want to pay $50 to eat in a gourmet restaurant on the ship!  

    CCJ/DM – I think Japan has to begin restarting their reactors or they will have blackouts over the summer.  That could pop CCJ much higher.  Still, you can take advantage of the move up as your Jan $17s are now $2.25 and the 2017 $15s are $4.45 so $2.20 to buy $2 in strike and a year means you're really buying a year for 0.20.  The $17s are $3.50 so, by comparison, I'd cerainly spend the extra 0.95.  

    JAIF Conference Urges Reactor Restarts

    April 16, 2015—Masakazu Toyoda of the Institute of Energy Economics Japan said at the annual conference of the Japan Atomic Industrial Forum that the country’s nuclear reactors have saved $276 billion in avoided fossil fuel imports over the years, but $30 billion a year—which he called a “drain of national wealth”—is now being spent on such imports.

    Toyoda said Japan’s dependence on fossil fuels—now responsible for 98 percent of its energy production—is higher that it was in 1973 and said the restart of Japan’s nuclear reactors is “essential” to the country’s energy independence.

    Kenji Yamaji of the Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth noted that the increased use of fossil fuels since 2011 has caused Japan’s carbon emissions to increase to almost 11 percent above 1990 levels, wiping out the country’s attainment of its Kyoto Protocol targets in 2010.

     SSRI/Pirate – Need to see if China's relaxation of export charges on rare earths encompasses zinc as well.  They don't make any money and they don't have a lot of cash so you'd better be damned sure there's something solid there before catching the knife.  


  100. What a joke /TF was into the close – completely fake move up and then right back down after the bell.

  101. /TF, finally working for me today…sheesh!! Funny how they pinned 1270 on the button at the top…

  102. Got swamped all day and looking at the charts only now. Wow, FU cash….

  103. Here is something for all the supply side advocates to chew on. Maybe someday it will be excepted fact that Reagan's economic experiment was a failure and people will stop idolizing him. Oh, I forgot, facts don't matter.—three-steps-to-solving-income-inequality-153834471.html

  104. Talk about inequality – people who watch Fox News are probably not well informed:

    (O'Reilly Factor/Fox News)

    Okay, so taxes aren't that high overall or even that high on the rich, but don't the rich still pay most of them? Well, that depends on which "them" you're talking about. For the federal income tax, sure. A lot of working class families don't pay any because tax credits erases what they would owe. And the top 1 percent has gotten such a bigger slice of the income pie that they'd be paying a bigger slice of the income tax pie regardless. But, you know, there are other federal taxes—like the payroll tax. It collects 73 percent of the revenue that the federal income tax does, and it collects most of that from the middle class. That's because income over $118,500 isn't subject to the payroll tax. You won't hear many conservatives, though, complain that the rich pay too little payroll tax like they say about the working class and the income tax. Funny how that works out.

  105. STJ – You know I'm pretty conservative, but if we don't do something about income inequality we're in for big trouble.  I'm in agreement with you on this topic.  Bring back Clinton's tax policy, raise the minimum wage, etc.   OMG ! ! !   I'm starting to sound like Phil.   …….but, not  really !

  106. STJ – Can you point me in the right direction for a guide on how to use the backtesting function within TOS?  I'm assuming you need to utilize Thinkscript (which I haven't done anything with yet).  Any resource that helped you learn would be interesting to me.


  107. Albo – Be careful there… forces in the dark side are very strong and will try to pull you back :-)

  108. Kidding aside Albo, I just don't know why we can't just have a regular discussion with facts. For example, as the article makes it clear, the top 1% do pay a lot of the income taxes. But the middle class pays the majority of the payroll tax. That's a fact, but for some reasons, the payroll tax doesn't seem to be considered a tax by conservatives. And it's the same thing for the estate tax. The new law they try to pass now would exempt from any taxes the capital gains you inherit. I buy $2M worth of IBM shares and when I die they are worth $10M. But my kids who inherit that money get it free and clear. This is wrong on so many levels – this is something that written for the children of Sam Walton for cryin' out loud!

  109. Palotay – Use the ThinkBack feature of TOS to do my backtesting. That's really the quickest way to do it without doing any programming. It's not ideal but it works well. You can even get an equity curve. 

  110. Moody's has this to say on T debt:

    AT&T's rating outlook is negative, primarily reflecting its higher leverage and the near term deterioration in operating performance within its core US wireless segment from an intense competitive environment. At the same time execution risk is elevated due to AT&T's expansion into Mexico and the pending $70 billion acquisition of DirecTV. AT&T's Baa1 rating has no margin of safety to absorb further wireless segment weakness, strategic missteps or unanticipated market shifts and the rating will not accommodate additional debt-financed M&A beyond those transactions previously announced.

  111. Just trying to see what a wider view would look like. The regular Big Chart only shows about 2 months and that doesn't give the best picture of the situation.

  112. The numbers are not that clear but if you right click on the picture and choose to open it in a new tab, you have the original resolution. 

  113. Spitting cobra on the Nasdaq and the Russell?

    Or something else?

  114. The dollar is getting jammed down for some reason.  Maybe to keep us up? 

  115. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 7:01:00 PM

      Greece’s Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras addresses reporters outside the European Council headquarters in Brussels on April 23, 2015. Photographer: Philippe Huguen/AFP via Getty Images

    As Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras follows an increasingly perilous financial path, his antagonists are just sitting tight.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  116. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 7:01:00 PM

      Crispin Odey, founder of Odey Asset Management LLP. Photographer: Harry Borden/Contour by Getty Images

    Seven U.K. hedge fund managers are worth more than 1 billion pounds ($1.5 billion), up from four executives last year, according to an annual wealth ranking compiled by the Sunday Times.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  117. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 7:00:01 PM

    Investors are losing faith in the rally that took German equities to records 27 times this year, withdrawing money from the market at the fastest pace since 2012.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  118. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 1:27:06 PM

    A self-described insomniac, Navinder Singh Sarao railed against high-speed traders for corrupting financial markets and defended his own rapid-fire success as the benefit of a quick mind.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  119. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 12:01:00 PM


    Here’s another Chinese puzzle. Economic growth, while slowing, is still 7 percent and the stock market is on a tear. Yet money is leaving the country.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  120. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 7:01:00 PM

      The Aramco Oil Refinery stands in Dahran, Saudi Arabia. The biggest member in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries boosted output to 10.1 million barrels a day in March, close to an all-time peak, the International Energy Agency reported on April 15. Source: MyLoupe/UIG via Getty Images

    Saudi Arabia has a response to the global surplus of oil: Raise output to near-record levels and then pump even more.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  121. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 5:00:00 PM


    Dmitry Sidorov missed the party.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  122. From Bloomberg, Apr 22, 2015, 3:47:55 PM

    With China’s world-beating stock market attracting an unprecedented number of novice traders, the question on many investors’ minds is how long authorities will let the rally run before stepping in to cool things down.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  123. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 5:29:57 PM

      Americans use about 100 gallons of water a day; that includes watering lawns. Europeans use half that, while sub-Saharan Africans use two to five gallons a day. Taking a bath requires up to 70 gallons of water; a five-minute shower, 10 to 25; flushing the toilet, 2 to 7. The average faucet flows at a rate of 2 gallons per minute. Water prices vary by city. A family of four using 100 gallons per person each day will pay on average $34.29 a month in Phoenix compared to $65.47 in Boston, according to Circle of Blue, an environmental group. A quarter of household energy costs go to heating water, according to California’s Consumer Energy Center. That amounts to about $50 billion a year.

    On October 15, Wall Street let out a collective gasp as yields on U.S. government bonds veered wildly. For minutes, sellers appeared to simply step away from the market – leaving the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury to plunge 33 basis points before rising to settle at 2.13 percent.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  124. From Bloomberg, Apr 24, 2015, 2:20:34 AM

    European stocks were little changed, after Thursday’s decline, as investors weighed company results.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  125. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 7:01:00 PM

      Yanis Varoufakis, Greece’s Finance Minister, talks to Kairat Kelimbetov, governor of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, not pictured, before an IMF governors’ group photo during the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C. on April 18. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

    A Greek default doesn’t mean the country has to leave the euro area, economists say.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  126. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 7:06:33 PM

    Among the Deutsche Bank AG traders whose e-mails were made public when the lender was fined a record $2.5 billion for rigging Libor, one stands out.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  127. From Bloomberg, Apr 24, 2015, 1:00:00 AM

      Martin Sorrell, Chief Executive Officer of WPP Plc. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

    Greece’s departure from the euro is now likely enough that officials from the single-currency area act as if they have come to terms with such an outcome, according to Martin Sorrell.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  128. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 10:44:00 PM

    Chinese homebuyers visit the stand of Villa Glorious Changchun, a residential property project developed by Glorious Property, at a real estate fair in Changchun city, northeast China’s Jilin province, on 15 Oct. 2011. Source: Imaginechina

    After Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. defaulted on its dollar bonds earlier this week, the market got to wondering, who could be next? They didn’t have to look very far.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  129. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 9:06:37 PM

    Days before the U.S. Supreme Court hears arguments on same-sex marriage, Senator Ted Cruz has filed two bills to protect states that bar gay couples from marrying.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  130. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 5:22:45 PM


    After keeping the world waiting for nine years, Amazon finally broke out earnings for its Amazon Web Services on Thursday. The $1.57 billion in sales for the quarter suggest that the company is far ahead of rivals in the cloud computing business. But as AWS expands globally, it faces strong competition from a familiar foe: Alibaba.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  131. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 4:00:00 PM

      An interstate Melbourne-Sydney train stands at Southern Cross station in Melbourne. It takes 11 hours to travel by train between the two cities. Photographer: Nigel Killeen/Moment Editorial/Getty Images

    Even for a country with a history of commodity booms, this one was gargantuan.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  132. From Bloomberg, Apr 7, 2015, 8:00:03 AM


    Seventh-grader Kevin Warren hunched over his desk, struggling to log on to a new tablet computer that News Corp. leased to his school. It replaced an earlier gadget, which had overheated, generating a red warning bar across the screen.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  133. From Bloomberg, Apr 24, 2015, 3:09:41 AM

    The U.K. government sold about 586 million pounds ($884 million) of shares in Lloyds Banking Group Plc, cutting its stake below 21 percent in the nation’s largest mortgage lender before next month’s election.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  134. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 10:49:28 PM

      Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan. Photographer: Akio Kon/Bloomberg

    The Bank of Japan helped push yields on government notes below zero this week for the first time since January before monetary officials set policy on April 30 as they pursue an elusive 2 percent inflation target.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  135. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 11:00:06 PM

    Taiwan’s stocks surged to the highest level in 15 years amid speculation foreign investors will shift to equities from bonds and optimism the island will broaden access to China’s capital markets.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  136. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 9:37:30 PM

    Pacific Investment Management Co. sees Treasuries falling as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. Stocks and corporate bonds should be able to weather the shift, according to the manager of the world’s biggest bond fund.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  137. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 8:08:29 PM

    Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index set to post a fourth straight weekly advance. Japanese shares retreated as the yen held gains amid weak U.S. economic data.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  138. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 6:01:00 PM

      Residential property stands on a forested hillside in the Hoegdalen suburb of Stockholm. Housing prices have soared in recent years amid a lack of supply and as low rates and population growth have fueled demand. Photographer: Casper Hedberg/Bloomberg

    Sweden’s central bank abandoned its efforts to cool household debt growth and the financial regulator’s plan was killed by a court. That’s left the new government with the responsibility of coming up with an answer no matter how unpalatable it may be for voters.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  139. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 4:12:59 PM

    Google Inc.’s strategy of stepping up investments to lure more users and advertisers is paying off, fueling ad volume gains in the latest quarter.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  140. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 4:50:13 PM

      A truck drives by‘s Fulfillment Center in Fernley, Nevada on December 15, 2004. Photographer: Ken James/ Bloomberg News.

    Turns out there’s real money in the cloud. The Inc. division that serves up computer power, storage, and software via the Internet, generated $1.57 billion in first-quarter sales.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  141. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 4:13:27 PM

    Microsoft Corp., in its second year under Satya Nadella, reported profit that exceeded analysts’ estimates as growth in cloud software sales and more expensive versions of server programs made up for slowing demand for personal-computer products.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  142. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 5:20:31 PM

    This is the committee that never ends.

    Bloomberg Politics broke the story: The House committee investigating Benghazi is planning on dragging its feet long enough so it can dump its report right into the middle of the presidential campaign next year. Meanwhile, the committee reportedly plans to hold two public hearings next month with Hillary Clinton as the guest of honor.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  143. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 1:57:39 PM

    So long, Carterville!

    Suppose that GreatBigCo has a retail center in Carterville, and pays its employees slightly more than the minimum wage. Suddenly the minimum wage is doubled. If GreatBigCo decides to close its store and move elsewhere, has it committed a moral wrong against its employees?

    To read the entire article, go to

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  144. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 3:55:12 PM

    More at home abroad?

    National security issues are likely to figure prominently in the 2016 election, and Republican candidates are already stepping up their attacks on the “Obama-Clinton foreign policy,” which they claim has led to an alarming decline in U.S. global influence. A new global poll assessing the leadership of the U.S., China, the European Union, Germany and Russia suggests these charges may be off target, though it also raises questions about the role the rest of the world would like the U.S. to play.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  145. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 1:21:42 PM

    Everyone behind the lit windows is SHOUTING ON IM.

    If you want proof that journalism is doomed, consider the Deutsche Bank Libor settlement. There was a time when I could make a good living just reading through Libor settlement documents, picking out funny ungrammatical quotes from e-mails and instant messages, block-quoting them, boldfacing the particularly ridiculous lines, and saying “come on!” or words to that effect after each quote. But now the Commodity Futures Trading Commission cuts out the middleman: It pulls out the funny quotes and puts them in a separate easy-to-use document, even bolding the silliest bits. The CFTC doesn’t add “come on!” but it’s implied. What is left for me to do?

    To read the entire article, go to

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  146. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 11:22:05 AM

    Things get murky after this.

    There has been an interesting debate in economics blog-land during the past couple of weeks. Basically, a lot of people outside econ academia are very annoyed with macroeconomics for failing to foresee the possibility of a big crisis, right up until a big one hit in 2008. A lot of these people blame the type of models that academic macroeconomists were using at the time (and are mostly still using now).

    To read the entire article, go to

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  147. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 6:35:59 PM

      A Matsumura Engineering Co. employee arranges “Super S” counterfeit 100 U.S. dollar bank for a photograph at the company’s headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday, July 9, 2014. Matsumura Engineering Chief Executive Officer Yoshihide Matsumura calls the new counterfeits “Super S,” which stands for “super special”. They’re a forgery of the Series 1996-2003A $100 note that features an image of Benjamin Franklin. Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg

    In a new promotional image celebrating its first 100 days in power, the Republican leadership of the House of Representatives puts a happy green check mark next to something that hasn’t really happened. To buttress some articles about how “Congress is actually doing its job,” the House GOP insists that it has “balanced the budget.”

    To read the entire article, go to

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  148. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 1:33:23 PM


    The Club for Growth is making an ad buy in the districts of several establishment-friendly Republican members of Congress, pressuring them to vote against reauthorizing the Export-Import Bank when an expected compromise bill comes up. The total buy, across four districts, is “north of $500,000,” according to Club spokesman Doug Sachtleben.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  149. From Bloomberg, Apr 24, 2015, 4:00:00 AM

    The Swiss National Bank is prepared to intervene in currency markets, President Thomas Jordan said.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  150. From Bloomberg, Apr 24, 2015, 4:03:31 AM

    German business confidence jumped to a 10-month high in April in a sign that growth in Europe’s largest economy is set to pick up on the back of record stimulus and a favorable exchange rate.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  151. From Bloomberg, Apr 24, 2015, 3:37:03 AM


    Euro-area finance ministers voiced their frustration with Greece after Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras tried to bypass their veto on financial aid with an appeal to Angela Merkel.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  152. From Bloomberg, Apr 24, 2015, 3:13:49 AM

    The euro strengthened versus the dollar for a second day as euro-area finance ministers met in Riga, Latvia, to discuss economic reforms Greece would need to implement in exchange for more aid.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  153. From Bloomberg, Apr 24, 2015, 2:15:29 AM

      Nexium and Crestor together accounted for a third of AstraZeneca’s 2014 revenue, or $9.2 billion. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

    AstraZeneca Plc, the second-largest U.K. drugmaker, said earnings fell in the first quarter as sales of two of its biggest medicines continued to decline and currency fluctuations took a slice from revenue.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  154. From Bloomberg, Apr 24, 2015, 2:14:48 AM

    Pearson Plc said restructuring costs are set to decline in 2015 after two years of job cuts and reorganization, helping the publisher of the Financial Times boost earnings even as sales are stalling.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  155. From Bloomberg, Apr 24, 2015, 2:08:10 AM

      BHP wants to nearly double iron-ore production to 240 million tons a year by 2013 to meet demand from China, the biggest metals consumer. The company said most of its metal mines are operating at full capacity because of strong demand. Photographer: Ian Waldie/Bloomberg

    Iron ore headed for a third weekly climb as BHP Billiton Ltd. curbed expansion plans and supply from high-cost mines fell. The rebound from a 10-year low this month takes prices toward the threshold of a bull market.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  156. From Bloomberg, Apr 24, 2015, 1:47:26 AM

    The benchmark gauge of Indian equity-option prices climbed for a ninth day, its longest stretch on record, as investors sought protection from a stock market falling amid concern about company earnings.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  157. I guess Greece is fixed again? 

  158. Good morning!  

    Dollar with the big smackdown to 97 this morning – getting to be a daily event.  That's down half a point so the indexes popped along with it with /NQ blowing through 4,500 (4,511) and up 0.666% – the mark of the Blankfein!   Other indexes up about 0.2%, they were red.  /TF back at 1,270 but shorting a bit scary with the Dollar so low although 97 should be good, bouncy support, so what the Hell?  

    (these trading thoughts bought to you by Hamlet)

    Anyway, I'm only as indecisive as Europe is:

    Asia was no better at making decisions but a 75-point pop into the close let the Shanghai close up 16 instead of down 60 (1.5%) and nobody seems to care how ridiculous that is….

    Oil is fun, flatlining at our $57.75 line but that could be healthy consolidation for a move up BUT with the Dollar weak and oil NOT going up – I'd say down is still the correct bet.  

    Reagan/TraderD – What do you mean "failure"?  Reagan's economic policies were a huge success – for some of us:

    Well, 1% of us…

    Remember that expression "we're all in the same boat"?  Well, thanks to Reagan and his policies, we're not anymore.  

    Taxes/StJ – They are looking to reframe the argument, of course.  The WHOLE POINT of a progressive tax system is to redistribute some of the wealth from the rich to the poor – it wouldn't be good tax policy if the rich weren't paying a greater share, would it?  And, of course, you could go on and talk about taxes as a percentage of disposable income in which case the bottom 80% are paying over 100% of their disposable income in taxes while the ulta-rich are paying less than 25%.  And then there's this:

    One day, people will wake up….

    LOL Albo.  Too bad we don't have a cool expression like "Come to the Dark Side" – that's the problem with Liberals, we don't do enough marketing so it's a very slow buying process to come around to our viewpoint.  cheeky

    Capital gains/StJ – Don't forget that a company you build and run for decades that doesn't go public but is worth tens of millions is also capital gains.  Once you open up that can of worms, anyone who can afford a lawyer to incorporate will never pay ordinary tax again.   As Leona Helmsley said: "Only the little people pay taxes."  



    Big Chart/StJ – You could try using a weekly view, less noise that way.  

    T/Deano – An optimist would say they are not underutilizing their operating capital.  

    Spitting Cobra/Maya – Well, let's not forget that it's just fake BS I made up.  But, then again, all TA is fake BS that someone made up so I guess we can have a discussion. blush    

    A Spitting Cobra is what's on the Big Chart in Feb – it's that sharp, unsustainble rise that then runs into a top that makes it curve over a bit and then, like a cobra head – it sort of hangs there until it strikes, bobbing up and down.  Since the cobra is limited by the length of it's body and gravity – it almost always strikes down.  That's where I came up with that description for that kind of action.  

    Dollar/Jeff – Yep, after more reading (and good counsel from Horatio), I'd say I still do like 1,270 on /TF and, of course $57.75 on /CL as shorts.