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Friday, February 27, 2026

UK Election Shocker: Exit Polls Show Cameron’s Tories Do Far Better Than Expected, 10 Short of Outright Majority

Courtesy of Mish.

An exit poll shocker shows Cameron’s Tories Do Far Better Than Expected.

Heading into the election, the Guardian made this projection:

  • Conservatives 273
  • Labour 273
  • SNP 52
  • Liberal Democrats 27
  • Democratic Unionist party 9
  • UKIP 3
  • Paid Cymru 3
  • Greens 1

UKIP

Here’s a report in from South Thanet, the constituency that Farage is hoping to take off the Tories, from FT reporter Barney Thompson:

Nigel Farage, Ukip leader, will be hoping dawn brings a similarly bright future as the new MP for South Thanet, where he stood unsuccessfully in 2005. But he is in a skintight race with the Conservative Craig Mackinley (a former Ukip deputy leader, in fact), with Labour breathing down both their necks.

Rumour has it that Mr Farage will not appear at the count for several hours; instead, he will be monitoring Ukip’s challenges in other parts of the south east: Clacton (a sure-fire win), Rochester & Strood (where Mark Reckless is trying to cling on) and Thurrock, another constituency that is too close to call.

British Pound Reaction

Coalition

The likely coalition now is Tories plus Liberal Democrats and UKIP if needed. If Tories or Liberal Democrats do as much as one vote worse than exit polls show (assuming the gain is for Labour), the coalition will need UKIP.

This was a rout of Labour and the Liberal Democrats vs. expectations. …

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