Courtesy of Mish.
Saxo Bank chief economist sent a number of charts and comments that constitute his outlook for global macro fundamentals for the next 6-7 months.
Via email, the rest of what follows is a guest post from Steen Jakobsen.
Headlines for Next 6-7 Months
- US, German and EU core government bonds will be 100 basis points higher by and in Q4 before making final new low in H1 2016. The US 10-year bond yield will trade above 3.0% and German Bunds 1.25%
- WTI crude will hit US $ 70-80/barrel setting up excellent energy returns.
- US dollar will weaken to EUR 1.18/1.20 then start multi-year weakness.
- Gold will be the best performer in commodity-led rally. We see 1425-1435 by year-end.
Average Annual Inflation by Decade
We need to stop talking deflation and using 1930s comparison on Fed hike.
US Real Rates
Real rates finally coming off in the US. Positive Gold and negative for US$?
US Germany Breakeven Rates
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