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Let’s Ignore China (again) and Terrorism Today!

And how was your morning?  

Probably better than it was for people in France, where an Air Products (APD) factory was attacked with a car bomb.  Our markets have become so jaded to terrorism that they spiked HIGHER minutes after the attack (6:40).  Meanwhile, in China, the Shanghai Composite continued to tumble, down a whopping 7.4% on the day, which is amazing since they halt stocks at 10% so only a few of them DIDN'T go limit down for the day. 

We've been warning you about this (and shorting China with (FXI), (FXP) and (CHAU)) for over a month now but this time may be different as Morgan Stanley (MS) warned it's investors NOT to buy the F'ing dip in what is now China's $8.8Tn market (was over $10Tn when we started shorting).  

“This is probably not a dip to buy,” wrote Jonathan Garner, the head of Asia and emerging-market strategy at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong. “In fact, we think the balance of probabilities is that the top for the cycle on Shanghai, Shenzhen and the ChiNext has now taken place.”

Margin Debt Versus StocksChinese markets peaked out on Friday, June 12th and I called the top on Monday, June 15th, with "Monday Meltdown – Greece and China Race to Default" in which I said:

China is only better off than Greece in that they get to print their own money and make up their own economic statistics without the fear of being audited (it was an audit of Goldman Sach's cooked books that began the Greek crisis).  That means China has less chance of having their backs placed against the wall than Greece but that doesn't mean that, like fellow BRIC nations Brazil and Russia, investors won't simply lose confidence in what is more and more obviously an unsustainable system.  

Since last June, the Chinese markets have gained $6Tn (150%) in PRICE (not value!) as margin debt climbed from $100Bn to $358Bn (250%).  Meanwhile, net inflows of cash into the Chinese markets were just $200Bn.  $200Bn + $358Bn is not $6,000Bn is it? 

Back on May 22nd, I had written: "Failing Friday – China Defaults Keep Adding Up" where I pointed out how Municipal and Corporate defaults in China were about to become an issue.  A month before (4/24), it was: "Friday Failure – Kaisa Bond Default Underlines China Housing Crash."  I don't know what it is about Fridays – I guess I start looking ahead and they are my biggest global fear for a market collapse…  In fact, in that April article, I explained exactly why I was being such a Chicken Little and was NOT going to stop sounding the alarms on China – it's a good lesson for those of you who would like to avoid being caught in a major market correction.  

At the time, we were using the China ETF (FXI) to play short with the June $50 puts at $1.20.  That was a FREE Trade Idea, right in the morning post and FXI finished at $46.79 on expiration day (June 19th), so those puts were $3.21 – up 167% in less than a month but we had already flipped to the July puts and those we already cashed in and got MORE aggressively short with Ulra Short (FXP) in our Short-Term Portfolio and we shorted the Ultra Long (CHAU) in our Long-Term Portfolio indicating we really couldn't be more confident with that call. 

At $47.75, FXI should open lower this morning and we do expect China to step in with more stimulus but the Aug $45.50 puts at $1 are still a fun way to play if you don't like complex spreads and, if China does stimulate and FXI pops higher, THEN we can adjust it and roll it to higher Sept puts because NOTHING they do can really stop this market from making a serious correction, at least to that $44 line ($1.50+ on the options, up 50%) and possibly the $40 line ($5.50, up 450%) – it's just a matter of when (or should I say Wen?!?  Get it, Wen.. that's the Premier's name – Wen!  Ouch, tough room…). 

Meanwhile, for those of you who are thinking that hoarding physical metals (gold, silver) will keep you safe in a market collapse, let this be your valuable lesson for the weekend:

This is why I crack up when people tell me they keep a supply of gold coins or silver in a safe "just in case."  If things get so bad that paper money becomes worthless, I advise people to have a stockpile of water filters instead – something that will actually have value in whatever post-apocalyptic fantasy world they think they are saving up for.  For better or worse, money is here to stay, folks…

That's why the Central Banksters get away with printing so much of it.  Those average people on the street all value Dollars – even though they can't buy what they used to and even though they are backed by nothing but a Government that is over 100% of it's GDP in debt, runs a $500Bn annual deficit and has $43Tn worth of unfunded obligations meaning each Dollar you hold is nothing more than an IOU from a nation that is $190,000 PER CITIZEN in debt already.  

And the US is about the LEAST debt-laden of the G8 nations and those nations are head and shoulders above the rest of the World (with some exceptions).  Australia, Canada, Denmark, Hong Kong (not China), Liechtenstein, Luxembough,  Norway,  Singapore, Switzerland and the UK are the only AAA-rated countries left and no, I did not mean to say "other" – the US is only rated AA+ and we probably would have lost the + if the Supreme Court had knocked down Obamacare (as it would have added another $300Bn to the deficit).  

Meanwhile, we're all borrowing like we're AAA+ rated – that's for sure.  Our Corporate Masters, in fact, are borrowing so much money that their spending on Buybacks and Dividends now EXCEEDS their Operating Profits.  That's right, let that sink in – even at record market highs, paying more money for their stock than people have ever paid before, Corporations are INCREASING the rate at which they buy back their own stock.   

S&P 500 dividends + buybacks as % of operating earnings

Buybacks and dividends surpassed 100% of earnings last quarter for the first time since shares began rising, as shown in the chart. S&P 500 companies spent $144.1Bn on share repurchases and paid out $93.6Bn of dividends. The total equaled 104.1% of their profits, up from a just as ridiculous 95.1% in last year’s fourth quarter.  Stock buybacks are a total scam at the best of times – in bull markets, they often mark the very top when they get to these levels.  

The increase reflects a reliance on repurchases to spur earnings-per-share growth, according to Howard Silverblatt, a New York-based senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones. He cited figures showing more than 20% of S&P 500 members cut the amount of stock outstanding last quarter by at least 4% from a year ago, as they had in the previous four quarters.  They’re getting a lot more pressure to do buybacks,” Silverblatt said yesterday in an interview. “It’s almost an entitlement program from an investor standpoint.” Repurchases will probably stay at current levels through year-end as many companies buy shares to offset expiring options, he added.

Shareholder payouts previously rose above 100 percent of operating earnings in the second quarter of 2007. Two quarters later, the figure peaked at 156.5 percent of profit — and the bull market ended.

Have a great weekend, 

- Phil

 


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  1. Oil Lines

    R3 – 61.29
    R2 – 60.87
    R1 – 60.26
    PP – 59.85
    S1 – 59.23
    S2 – 58.81
    S3 – 58.20


  2. One of the better review of the Supreme court decision:

    http://www.bradford-delong.com/2015/06/why-did-the-supreme-court-decide-yet-another-obamacare-case-today-the-honest-broker-for-the-week-of-june-28-2015.html

    But I am not so happy: three of the Republican justices were eager to become what the court was in Bush vs. Gore--an openly and unrestrained partisan institution.

    That is at least three too many.

    In the past — think of Marbury vs. Madison, or McCulloch vs. Maryland, or Dred Scott vs. Sanford, or Lochner, or Plessy, or Brown — justices who have ruled against the grain of legal doctrine, tradition, and history have done so in the service of some deeply-held conception of justice. This time is indeed different. This time the three horsemen whose dissent runs so strongly against the grain have no deeply-held conception of justice behind them — only the belief that they are against Team Obama…

    Naked invitations to crude judicial activism… [are] nihilistic approaches to statutory interpretation [that] might render unworkable complex legislation in the divided institutional turf of American democracy. President Barack Obama was vulnerable to legal/partisan guerilla warfare this time…. Had the plaintiffs prevailed, the hallmark legislative initiative of some conservative Republican successor would prove equally vulnerable on something else. Shakespeare reminds us: Such instructions, once taught, have a way of returning to plague their inventors…


  3. Really cool interactive chart on climate change:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/

    When you scroll down it shows the various factors at play and no surprising conclusion.


  4. Some sickening figures from the IRS – not sure how we can help the top 0.001 percent (the makers) more than we are now. How can we even talk about tax cuts when they pay less than the people in the top 20% (the takers)

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2015/06/irs-income-data-on-us-households/

    3


  5. Scary:

    http://qz.com/438230/what-it-would-look-like-if-other-countries-had-to-cope-with-greeces-shocking-brain-drain/

    As talks between Greece and its creditors grind on, the negotiations to extend Greece’s bailout are centered on debt levels, deficit targets, tax rates, and other financial measures. But filling in the country’s financial shortfall is one thing; reversing its brain drain is another.

    Over the past five years, nearly 300,000 people have left Greece, or just under 3% of its pre-crisis population. A brutal economic depression, eye-watering unemployment, and the promise of austerity for years to come will do that.


  6. Wow, /CL, /RB and /NG all tanking right now!


  7. Good morning!  

    Here's something to make you think:


  8. Phil,

    Looks like the gasoline markets are determined to  a) flush out the /RBQ5 long holders this week end, and b) GS delivering on its forecast that oil would fall going forward. Currently have 2 of /RBQ5 at $2.0108. What do you recommend an ardent follower of Phil should do now….No panic, no fear….just looking for expert guidance. Would you look to hold over the week end. Thanks as always 


  9. Happy Friday!


  10. Now the dollar is being pushed up…


  11. Good morning – which way will we go – and how far?


  12. That was a sneaky little shakedown on /RBQ5…..


  13. Ouch on the Dollar!  95.80 before coming back (now 95.66 is up about 0.3%).  

    That knocked gold back to $1,170 where I feel good about 50 GLD July $111.50/112.50 bull call spreads at 0.50 for the STP ($2,500) and 20 in the $25KP ($1,000).  

    Court/StJ – Scalia is a madman!  

    "Our only evidence of what Congress meant comes from the terms of the law, and those terms show beyond all question that tax credits are available only on state Exchanges," Scalia writes, forgetting that the people who actually wrote the law were not only available to provide evidence of their intent, but did so.

    Pause for a moment to consider what would have to be true for Scalia's argument to work: The authors of the Affordable Care Act would all have to be lying about their true intent on subsidies. While they claimed in public that the law would give subsidies to everyone who qualified, secretly they were drafting the law to restrict it to just people in states that set up exchanges. And, more bizarrely, they would have engaged in a collective conspiracy to keep their true intent hidden from the public until it was discovered by conservative activists, who then used that it to challenge the law. If that really was their intent, why, then, would the authors of the law go to court to defend the precise opposite of their true, secret intent to restrict subsidies only to states that set up exchanges?

    Those 3 judges but mostly Scalia with that insane rant of his have lost all credibility and have damaged the reputation of the court with this partisan BS.  One only PRAYS that President Clinton the 2nd will be able to pack the court with enough partisan liberals to reverse 20 years of damage the Conservative Court has done to this country.  

    Of course nothing is as funny as the verbal somersaults that the GOP is currently engaged in in trying to pretend they are good Christians but the Pope is not a guy people should pay any attention to.  

    Daily Show nailed that last night:

     

    I'm going to miss that guy!  

    Climate chart is depressing, tax chart sickening…  I need to watch the elephant paint again.  surprise

    LOL – All pre-market BS reversing quickly.  Indexes down, /RB up.  /TF just paid for my weekend but I'm counting on /RB to pay for my whole vacation.  

    Flush/Jasu – Yep, the key is to go through them enough that you get used to it.  That's what it feels and looks like.  Clearly if you were nervous at $1.99 just now you'd damned well better be getting back to 1 at $2.01 because we could drop down to $1.98 again next week and would you rather be down $2,400 and needing to DD or down $1,200 and HAPPY to DD?  

    LOL – Dollar snaps back to 95.50 already.  What a joke!  


  14. I am blown away from that Elephant video.  That is effing amazing.  Sad that people kill highly intelligent animals for the ivory.


  15. Yeah, I was going to juxtapose that with a video of dozens of dead elephants with their tusks ripped out but it's just too f'ing depressing and I think we've seen them before (but without caring enough).  We (man) have this sort of protective prejudice against animal intelligence and feelings that allows us to treat them like total crap for the most part.   Essentially, we "dehumanize' them to the point where anthropomorphising things is derided by our fellow humans – as if it's idiotic to assign thoughts and feeling to animals.  Anyway, vegan rant is over and I am now craving a good steak…

    Wow, /TF giving us another at-bat already.  Need to see if we're rallying for any good reason first…


  16. Phil — DBA perking up, finally.


  17. RH – up on upgrade..!


  18. That elephant can make an honest attempt at representing the truth,  Maybe a candidate for Republican nomination?


  19. I'm not seeing any good reason for a rally but Europe turned green so maybe Greece is fixed again.  Can't short this and it's Friday anyway so we'll just see what happens.  Too bad as STP was up to 150.4% – we'll see how much of a hit we take on a move back up:  

    DBA/Esco – A lot of very strange factors have kept it down but I have faith in the combination of improving consumption, weaker currencies and El Nino to boost it eventually.  

    In the LTP we have 25 of the 2017 $21/23 bull call spreads and they are still just $1 and you can still sell the $22 puts for 0.75, which is net 0.25 ($625) on a potential $5,000 return.  That's a great way to hedge your grocery bill!


  20. Supreme court approves Gay marriage now.  5-4 of course and we'll see what Scalia's rant is this time.  He's like a cartoon villain…  


  21. Wow, should have had more confidence on shorting /TF again – zoomed back down to 1,279.  /RB $2.007.


  22. CNBC guest said Shanghai market dominated by retail buyers using high margin. Average holding period 1week. they may be cashing out on Fridays after the big run up for the year  


  23. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2015, 10:03:39 AM

    Same-sex couples have a constitutional right to marry nationwide, the U.S. Supreme Court said in a historic ruling that caps the biggest civil rights transformation in a half-century.


  24. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2015, 9:39:16 AM

    Militants attacked tourists in Tunisia, Shiite worshipers in Kuwait and a French gas plant on Friday, killing dozens of people three days before the first anniversary of Islamic State’s self-declared caliphate.


  25. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2015, 9:36:21 AM

    June 26 — Bloomberg’s Pimm Fox and Olivia Sterns report on today’s top news stories.

    Greece’s creditors offered to unlock aid of as much as 15.5 billion euros ($17.3 billion) for the indebted country, as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras lamented the tough conditions demanded in return for the deal.


  26. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2015, 4:00:03 AM
     

    In 2013, 246 million people worldwide—one of every 20 people between the ages of 15 and 64—used an illegal drug. Some 27 million of those are problem drug users suffering from addiction, dependence, or other disorders.


  27. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2015, 4:00:11 AM
     

    Thanks to innovation, illegal marijuana users are getting a stronger—and possibly more harmful—high today than they did 10 years ago.


  28. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2015, 8:26:22 AM

    Gunmen opened fire on tourists lounging on a beach in the Tunisian seaside resort of Sousse, killing at least 27. One militant was killed while another fled and is being pursued by security forces.


  29. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2015, 8:16:08 AM

    Greece’s bank deposits hit an 11-year low in May.


  30. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2015, 10:03:42 AM

    Micron Technology Inc. fell the most in five years as the biggest U.S. maker of memory chips issued a sales forecast that missed analysts’ estimates on weaker demand for personal-computer components.


  31. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2015, 10:03:36 AM

    German Chancellor Angela Merkel pressed the Greek government to accept a “generous” offer made by creditors, as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras lamented the terms demanded in return for aid.


  32. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2015, 10:00:00 AM

    Consumer confidence climbed in June to a five-month high as an improving job market boosted Americans’ attitudes about the world’s largest economy.


  33. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2015, 9:57:42 AM

    Brazil’s real extended the first weekly drop in June as a Chinese stock rout overshadowed the central bank’s efforts to boost confidence in Latin America’s largest economy.


  34. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2015, 9:52:07 AM
      Pedestrians walk with umbrellas in front of BlackRock Inc. offices in New York, U.S., on Friday, April 12, 2013. BlackRock Inc. predicts Canadian 10-year benchmark bond yields may fall to the lowest since at least the 1950s as a sputtering economy douses expectations the Bank of Canada will increase borrowing costs this year. Photographer: Scott Eells/Bloomberg

    It’s that time of year again.


  35. Phil,

    Demons of cyberspace hit my computer this AM. Just read your WPC thoughts/suggestions. Thanks for the guidance. 



  36. neweconomicperspectives.org / William Black

    By William K. Black Quito: June 25, 2015 The BBC came up with a good “hook” for a story on the troika’s assault on the Greek economy and people. “Yani…



  37. nytimes.com / ELISABETTA POVOLEDO

    VATICAN CITY — The Vatican on Friday signed a treaty with the “state of Palestine,” a development that the church hopes will lead to improved relations …


  38. Putin: Russia is going to spend $400 billion upgrading its military


    businessinsider.com / VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV, Associated Press

    MOSCOW (AP) — Russia needs a mighty military to fend off threats near its borders, President Vladimir Putin said Thursday, in a stance that reflects soa…


  39. Hi Phil, DBA I do not see where you pick the Jan17 play. There is none shown yet but Jan16 is now 1.23 ???


  40. The Tea Party governor of Maine keeps publicly joking about killing people


    salon.com / Sophia Tesfaye

    Gov. Paul LePage said, for example, that state lawmakers should be “rounded up and executed in the public square” Paul LePage, the Tea Party Republican …


  41. Antonin Scalia Dissent: I Give Up, Do Whatever You Want


    huffingtonpost.com / Ryan Grim

    WASHINGTON – Justice Antonin Scalia has really had it. Scalia’s dissent in the case of Obergefell v. Hodges, which officially made marriage equality the…


  42. Consumer Confidence Surges To January Cycle Highs (Near 11 Year Highs)


    zerohedge.com

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/26/2015 10:09 -0400 UMich consumer sentiment spiked from 90.7 to 96.1 (well above the 94.6 preliminary print) just shy …


  43. bouncy dollar today


  44. Here's How Apple's Siri Will Control Your House Under HomeKit Program


    forbes.com / Aaron Tilley

    Apple wants the world to use Siri to as their personal assistant for anything and everything, including for turning the lights on and off. On Thursday, …


  45. S&P 500 Breadth — % of Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Averages


    bespokepremium.com / June 25, 2015

    Below is a look at our trading range screen for the S 500 and its ten sectors. As shown, the S 500 is just below its 50-day moving average — essential…


  46. How Airbnb Is Taking Over Paris


    wsj.com / Jason French, Sam Schechner, Matthias Verbergt

    Airbnb’s growth has exploded over the past five years… SUMMER 2009 TOTAL GUESTS 144 ARRONDISSEMENT: …but the profile of the guests varies widely by ne…


  47. Looking for a contrarian trade? Try food.


    businessinsider.com / Corey Stern

    Bet on Food. And El Niño. In a note to clients earlier this week, analysts at Jefferies said that if investors are looking for a contrarian trade, the b…


  48. Capitalism in America


    economist.com

    Americans have never been anti-business, as long as its power is balanced by democracy THE consensus in Washington is clear: this is a perilous time for…


  49. CIM oh hell – got called away…. but did make $1K in 2 wks…  call + appreciation…


  50. NLY also taking a hit today – dividend now at 12%…


  51. MU/Phil:

    Got hammered today on it. Certainly wasn't expecting down 20%.

    I have the Jan17 20/30 Bull Call, paid $4.82, and sold the Jan17 25 puts for $4.12.

    I am thinking of rolling my Jan17 20 calls to the Jan17 15/25 Bull Calls for a $1.40 debit and leaving the 25 short puts and 30 short calls. 

    I don't think MU is going to come back anytime really soon.

    Thoughts?


  52. Margin/Tx – One of their many issues over there.  

    Nas down 0.4% while Dow up 0.4% – interesting.  

    You're welcome 8800. 

    DBA/Yodi – Sorry, it is 2016, not 2017.  I just took the last set and assumed it was 2017.  frown  How are things going?  

    Obama announcing he will now marry Joe Biden…

    CIM/Batman – Nice.  Now let them pull back (post dividend) and you can re-load.  

    CIM is in a good spot as it's on a strike so you can buy them for $13.99 and sell the Dec $12 calls for $1.20 and the $14 puts for 0.75 and that nets you in for $12.05/13.03 and the dividend is 0.48 in Sept and Dec 29th (you'll have to roll of course) but even if called away at $14 ahead of next dividend, all that happens is you have $14 cash and a short $14 put and you started with $12.05, so you'd be up $1.95 and netting into 1x (if below $14) at $12.05.  

    If you don't get called away, you have a $12.05 base + 0.48 in dividends and, wherever CIM is in Dec, you simply roll to June (or whatever) puts and calls and keep collecting those dividends – almost $2 a year!  Think of this as whittling down your dividends by $2-3/yr off your $12.05 base and in just 3 years your net cash in this trade will be $6 but you'll still be collecting $2 (33% of what's left) in dividends.  

    It's like paying off an investment property and then collecting the rents only you don't have to maintain it or pay property taxes!  

    NLY/StJ – The thinking is that they can't maintain it this high as rates rise.  

    MU/Jbur – Gosh, I hate to say I told you so but I actually did specifically tell YOU so a couple of weeks ago:

    MU/Jbur – They've been about to turn it around since last year.  I don't know enough about their current product mix to say that they have that much untapped value – I was under the impression they missed the bus and have been making chips nobody wanted (not nobody, obviously, but not great demand).  From my perspective, they are heavy into DRAM and DRAM is a declining commodity.    

    To some extent, this is like the "attractive" pricing of the coal companies – their business is stuck providing something that people don't want anymore and sure, they can do it cheaply at great margins but, in the long haul – there's no growth.  Samsung is the 800lb Gorilla in that market and they don't care how much they lose flooding the world with those chips as they have some massive machines and plants that they need to keep cash flowing into.  

    Anyway, as I said, that's just my concern.  DRAM is a commodity but NAND is the growth and it all depends on where MU is with 3D NAND and I haven't got a clue on that.  I would be far more conservative and sell 2017 $20 puts ($2) against the $23 ($5.80)/30 ($2.90) bull call spread at $2.90 so then you just risk 0.90 cash and might have to own them at $20.90, where you can turn around and sell those $23 calls and drop your basis to $15ish.  THAT is an entry strategy I could get behind..

    So, you didn't think I was smart then but now you want my help?  cool  Value-wise, they are right where I thought they'd be so I'm still good with my target but, unfortunately, that's not your target.  They are only weak-bouncing today and the downgrade police haven't had their say yet so I wouldn't go catching knives just yet but the 2017 $25 puts ($7) can be rolled to 1.5x the $20 puts @ $3.50 so you are in the $20 puts for net $1.58ish and a $18.42 net entry vs $20.88 but the short puts are pretty much all premium that way.  As to the bull spread, you were too aggressive selling the $20 calls but you'd better spend $1 to roll them to the $18s or why are you in this trade at all?  You can buy back the $30s for $1 and then look to sell the $25s (now $1.85) for $2+ and that gets you back to near net $0 on the now $7 spread that's in the money by $1.60 (hopefully).  


  53. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/consol-energy-mlp-ipo-off-120524902.html

    Update on CNX coal MLP IPO.  Price was reduced.  Looks like Einhorn is buying much of the deal, just to get it done.  Staying away from CNX for now.


  54. Goaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaallllllllllllll on /RB at $2.025!  I will literally KILL anyone who tells me next week that they didn't take some off the table and now they have a big position that's losing money!  

    I still think we get to $2.10 by next Thurs but that doesn't mean we won't pull back in between so play smart, not greedy and make sure you have an amount that you would be HAPPY to double down on at $1.98.


  55. Phil,

    You DA MAN!…..You don't gotta kill me….I am OUT at 2.0253…..Thanks for the hand holding….Have a great W/E…..Did I say Thanks!!  Will wash, rinse….repeat next week.


  56. I lightened up on my /RB position, back to 2…don't want Phil to kill me ????


  57. Decided to take the remaining 2 off as well. Will reload if it dips again. 


  58. Should've been a bunch of exclamation points in that post above!!!


  59. thanks Phil—got out of 6 holding 2—-might regret but……


  60. MU/Phil

    Thanks for adjustment advice;  executed.

    Never for a moment doubted your brilliance and your prior advice was well received. The only fly in the ointment is that I was in the trade BEFORE your posting on 6/11.

    This game is a continuous learning experience for sure. 


  61. Greece just rejected the proposal – going into the weekend in chaos!  


  62. Phil, /NKD at 20900 again.  Any play there before close today?


  63. Thanks Phil,

    We are still on the road crossing through the north of Italy, where we will leave Italy here in Sanremo going over to Monaco and Nice in to France. At present we have free Internet at this RV park. Otherwise I have to use my Sat-antenna which works in all of Europe at any place. Great installation but for a price. but than if you have to watch your ports and do not want to lose, you need to spend for the equipment. Market is still to high and I am treading slowly. Entered SO the other day which may be also a play for the future. Having some problems with the payment system of PSW no where else do I have that problem with my card, just about accepted any where here in Italia. I try to work this out with Greg. 

    Saludos to all Yodi


  64. Greece/Phil = excellent (doing my best Mr. Burns impression) – now my SPY puts should start cooking.


  65. I’m sticking with 1@2.025. We didn’t
    Touch 1.975 to bring my avg down to 2.
    Looking for 2.75 as a exit


  66. You're welcome Jasu.  Doesn't that feel great?  (especially as it pulled back right after we sold)

    Good job Jeff.  

    You're welcome Savi – never regret taking a profit.  When you have CASH!!! there will always be new opportunities ahead….

    Learning/Jbur – Well that's the idea.  As long as you learn something and I may say it obnoxiously but the point is to remind you that there's a reason we go for those more conservative entries – the same way we're thrilled with $2.025 on /RB, despite the fact that $2.10 is our ultimate target.  If we make NOT LOSING MONEY our priority – we'll get to make more trades and make more money than if we try to swing for the fences on trades that we only end up scrambling to get even on.  

    /NKD/Sibe – Damn, you are like the devil on my shoulder – I was ignoring them today!  

    I think with Greece taking a walk after being offered $15Bn that would have calmed things until Nov, that there is not going to be a deal over the weekend so chances are the Dollar is strong and Nikkei likes that.  On the other hand, we have a weak Euro and Japan doesn't like that and, overall, it's likely to be a Yen-neutral event.  Sunday night (Mon morning in Japan) we get May Industrial Production and Retail Sales for Japan, both of which are likely to suck (and I don't have to tell you this because you play the Nikkei futures so you must be on top of Japanese market events).  

    We just pushed EWJ puts to Sept so that's already $4,000 added to short bets on Japan so I don't think we need to bet /NKD down but it is fun – as long as you plan to scale in to 21,000 in case the strong Dollar pops them or in case they announce some stimulus or in case one of the reports is an upside surprise.  As long as you don't mind those risks – sure, I like /NKD short at 20,900!  cheeky

    Sounds like fun, Yodi, enjoy the trip!  I'm sure Greg will fix the cards for you or, if not, I'll come join you in August and you can buy drinks and food…  

    Greece/Snow – Don't count on it into the weekend.  They still want to prop this sucker up.  

    SPY  5  MINUTE

    SPY DAILY

    SPX WEEKLY

    /RB/Burr – I'd be going for another at $1.9875 to avg $1.9950 on 2 and then, if you stop out at $2.02, you're net on the remaining one is way down at $1.9750(ish).  

    Dollar 95.78, that's up 0.42% for the day and that's how much the Nas is down. 

    NFLX $654 – ROFL!!!  

    That's why the STP is doing so well despite the up market. 


  67. Phil – so how is that video about morons who don't know what Argentum is have anything to do with bullion pricing by non-idiots?


  68. It is downright scary how dumb most Americans are. It is embarrassing.


  69. Good idea Phil 


  70. Argentium/BDC – Because that is reality.  We're sitting here with all of our wealthy Top 10% traders who not only went to college but have an interest in finance but the reality is THAT is what the rest of the country looks like.  So your silver or gold is valuable to you and most of this little group but NOT to other people and certainly not if there is some crisis – that's the point I'm making.  

    Go on the street in Ohio and try to get people to take a whole Bitcoin for a slice of pizza and you'll get the same reaction.  Money (or commodities) are only worth what the majority decides they are worth – the difference is we've walled off commodities and limited their trade to HNW people specifically so we don't have to "explain" the value to the other 6.9Bn people on this planet who think we're idiots for paying that much.  

    I'm sure most people here are over 110, that's already top 15% of humanity.  That's why the "average" person doesn't like "intellectual elitists", they don't mean Krugman, Havel, Piketty, Tyson, Chomsky, Dawkins, etc. – they mean US!  The average person doesn't even know who those guys are – it's the people like us who think those people matter more than Kim Kardashian that annoy the crap out of them…

    You've gotta know your place in life and you are an intellectual oppressor – own up to it!  wink


  71. Nice little dip all of a sudden.


  72. phil,

    have a very old trade of sht 5x rig jan6 35's at 5.

    thinking of rolling to 10x jan7 23's about even……..do you see a better play ……tks


  73. Phil / CI- thank you – i started the reload – purchased 1K at 13.9 and looking to well the 12 fall at 2


  74. on above meant CMI


  75. Phil   Own 5k NLY@ 11.24,sld Jan 16 12p @ 2.70 ,now about even on DD, should I roll to 2017 10p to pick up another 1.50? Thks


  76. Speaking of below average: 

    The answer: No, you fool.
    GAW.KR|BY RICH JUZWIAK

     

    RIG/Mill – Short puts?  You own them at $16 so you're down $14 each, don't try to fool yourself.  The real question is, how do you get 500 x $14 ($9,000) back?  I'd just sell 20 of the 2017 $15 puts ($4.20) for $8,400 and be happy with that because at least you KNOW that premium will burn off so even if RIG drops to $10, you are not worse off.  Your commitment now is 500 x net $28 = $14,000 so you are doubling down on the allocation but selling 10 $23s is up 50% anyway and they barely have any premium.  I'd say dropping your break-even from $23 to $15 (34%) makes up for the larger commitment. 

    CIM?/Batman – You're welcome.  

    Futures down to 17,825, 2,089, 4,467 and 1,271 so we'll see if we hold here.  Below 2,100 on S&P is a very bad signal and VIX already thinks so as it's back near 15.  

    /RB took off – back to $2.0275 now.  /CL $59.92 but it's just the usual weekend pump job.  


  77. NLY/490 – I'm not clear on what you mean by picking up another $1.50 since the Jan $12 puts are $3.15 and the 2017 $10 puts are $2.05.  Would I roll 5 short Jan $12s ($1,575) to 8 short 2017 $10 puts ($1,640)?  Yes, that I would do as you gain 20%(ish) in position and only commit to buying 300 more shares for +$2,000 (net $6.67/share) so that's an easy decision if you still like them.  However, with the bigger commitment I'd also be more conservative and sell the 2017 $8 calls for $1.50+.  If you get called away, you can just sit tight and see if you end up back in from the put side, where you have a good re-entry.

    Wow, whipping back up now – what a ride!  


  78. Phil- What is keeping Dow futures up while the other three indices are all down? Earlier when all were down about 1% the Dow was up .1% I bet the laggard but of course as soon as I did they all came back up. I never seem to get this laggard thing right. I always seem to pick the one that is leading instead of lagging. Isn't the usual rule if three of four are losing or winning, the fourth should follow? Just a coincidence?


  79. While I am asking questions, do you think /CL breaks above $60 into the NYMEX close or will it drop back to earlier low levels in your opinion?


  80. YHOO

    I have BCS +10 Jan16 40C @ 6.35 / -10 Jan16 50C @ 2.94 net 3.41

    the Jan16 40C is now 3.47

    Adjust to ??


  81. I had an uncle that was a self made millionaire – he told me i should  take care of the stupid people  - because God loves them…… he made lots of them.


  82. Quote of the day:

    "Never ascribe to Malice what is more easily explained by Stupidity."

  83. June 26th, 2015 at 1:14 pm | Permalink | Tweet thisIgnore this user

    Phil, Would you  please clarify this position from Millcreek.

    "have a very old trade of sht 5x rig jan6 35's at 5."

    The way I read it is he sold jan 2016 Rig 35's calls short which should be in the money with Rig at 16. If indeed he sold the puts short then it makes sense.

    Thanks as always.


  84. Dow/Craigs – NKE up $4.50 is about 40 Dow points by itself.  Other than them, the rest of the components are net even, no one outstanding on either side but UNH is up $1.25 (10 points) on sector consolidation chatter, also helping a bit.  If you are going to play the Dow, you do have to think about whether any of the individual components are skewing it but, had you caught them as they fell from +100, there was plenty of room to play them as the laggard as they are now up just 35.  

    So, ordinarily the 4th should follow but if it's the Nas – check AAPL, if it's the Dow – check the 30 components.  If it's the S&P – check AAPL too.  If it's the RUT – well they are just bat-shit crazy so what can you do?  

    Also, we don't use 3/4 as a straight-up technical indicator.  We use 3/4 when we THINK that the indexes will go down and then 3 go down to confirm and THEN we short the laggard but the technical signal is SECONDARY to our Fundamental expectations and you didn't see me making that call, did you?  In fact, I kept saying it was too tough to call today and Friday's are never good days to play anyway.  You are trying to apply rules to every occasion and, again, you are over-trading.  If you want a RULE, then DON'T trade 9 out of 10 times you look at set-ups.  You only want to enter on the best one you see and, even then, if you are right 60% of the time – you are a market pro – so manage your cash properly as well!  

    /CL/Craigs – Again, it's Friday – no way to know.   The contracts rolled over so there's no pressure but the strong Dollar hurt oil today and if finished 0.3% behind Brent.  I think next week or the week after is the last gasp for oil before heading lower again but that doesn't mean I have a prediction for every two-hour period and, again, you don't see me making any calls, do you?  That's because I do follow the 9 out of 10 rule and 90% of the time I look at set-ups, I decide they're too risky.  

    YHOO/Edro – We got out of YHOO ages ago because the BABA story played out.  I talk to people at Yahoo Finance, they haven't got a clue in the World how to make money.  You can pull your net and get away clean if you want to risk the short $50s or you can sell some other sucker Aug $42s at $1.12 and 3 sales like that and you have your money back and a little upside potential on the spread but I wouldn't throw good money after bad on this one.  

    Uncle/Batman – Was his name Barnum?  

    RIG/IHS – I took it that he sold puts.  If he sold $35 calls he wouldn't need any help.   He didn't correct me so I assume I guessed right.


  85. Obama getting a standing ovation at a funeral.  Good week for him. 


  86. AAPL – Good article on Bitcode – from SA – I don't believe Intel has the low power capabilities that can touch the AX processor … which would be a big hit to ARMH.  However native Aps on watch will be a major next step, this coupled w/ a 64 Bit processor would take the watch to a much more useful level…

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/3283765-apple-bitcode-processor-independence-and-future-proofing-the-apple-watch


  87. Uh-oh!  Wary of Beijing, HSBC dumps China PMI

    • For the last five years, China's Flash PMI has been sponsored by HSBC, and it's given investors one of the better early and non-official insights into the performance of the Chinese economy.
    • That sponsorship will end this month, and HSBC is spinning its decision not to renew as a refocus of marketing dollar to other projects. One might think other banks would leap at the chance to replace HSBC – thus branding itself as an authority on the Chinese economy – but none have  yet stepped forward.
    • It suggests a different reason for the move: The HSBC/Markit PMI has consistently shown a darker picture for the economy than the official PMI released by the country's National Bureau of Statistics. For a bank looking to do business in China, it's perhaps not the best idea to attach your name to an economic index at odds with Beijing's narrative.
    • Previously: China plunges deep into the red (June 26)
    • Japan's primary inflation gauge rose only fractionally in May, triggering concern that the BOJ won't reach its 2% target by September next year.
    • Consumer prices excluding fresh food increased 0.1% from a year earlier vs. forecasts by economists for inflation to be unchanged.
    • Unemployment remained at 3.3% while household spending eked out a gain for the first time in more than a year.

    Oil rig count falls again, but overall total rigs finally rise

    • The number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. fell for a 29th consecutive week, but the total number of operating rigs, including gas, increased for the first time this year, according to Baker Hughes' latest weekly survey.
    • Rigs drilling for natural gas rose by 5 for the week, exceeding the loss of 3 oil rigs; the total U.S. rig count is now at 859 rigs, while oil rigs fell to 628 rigs from the peak of 1,609 in October.
    • ETFs: USOOILUCOUWTISCOBNODBODWTIDTOUSLDNOOLOSZOTWTI,OLEM
    • California Resources (CRC -5.5%) fell as much as 16% before recovering after a negative report from short-seller BlueMountain Capital Management, which said the stock is worthless and the company’s debt would need to be restructured.
    • CRC's oil fields have high overhead costs and shrinking crude output that do not “come close to covering its debt," and the portfolio of undrilled reserves is of "little incremental value’’ and cannot be relied upon to rescue the company’s finances, BlueMountain says.
    • Occidental Petroleum (OXY -1%) is CRC's largest investor with a 19% stake.
    • Peabody Energy (BTU -10.2%) sees continued weakness, down ~10% so far today and 20% on the week, although all coal mining shares (KOL -1.5%) have been hammered in recent days.
    • Moody's downgraded BTU's corporate credit rating last night to B3 from B2 with a negative outlook, reflecting the rating agency's expectation of a more precipitous deterioration in the company's credit metrics than previously forecast due to the ongoing decline in the seaborne met coal markets.
    • The firm sees BTU's debt/EBITDA ratio approaching 9x in 2015 and leverage remaining elevated at ~7x in 2016; absent asset sales, BTU is seen generating negative free cash flows in 2015 and 2016.
    • However, BTU and other coal names have been sliding all week; Barron's Ben Levisohn speculates investors may be worried about the pending Supreme Court decision - in light of the Court's "having tilted leftward in its rulings" this week – on whether EPA rules that caused utilities to shutter some coal-fired plans are legal.
    • Related tickers: ACIWLBCLDANRWLTCNXNRP.

     

    • Winnebago (WGO +5.9%) races higher on volume 2X normal activity.
    • Shares of the RV seller are now up 20.6% over the last five sessions and trade at their highest level since March.
    • One of the big pullouts from the company's FQ3 report was that motorhome volume growth was high enough to offset a slip in the ASP (average selling price).
    • On the earnings call, execs noted that Winnebago's technology platform is helping with efficiency. A decision to cut back of "Air Force" corporate jets also caught the eye of analysts.
    • Previously: Winnebago beats by $0.02, beats on revenue (Jun. 25 2015)
    • Previously: More on Winnebago's FQ2 (Jun. 25 2015)
    • Earnings call transcript

     

    • Tesla Motors (TSLA -0.6%) and the Gigafactory was discussed at a meeting last night in Nevada of economic officials.
    • A representative from the Governor's office updated lawmakers that progress on the Gigafactory was slightly ahead of schedule.
    • "Certainly by one year from now, that factory will be producing batteries," stated director Steve Hill.
    • Pacific Crest is optimistic on the progress at Tesla after taking a factory tour in Fremont. Waves of new employees and pilot Model X shells were observed during the walk-through.
    • "We continue to expect the X launch sometime in September and would expect investor optimism to grow into this launch," wrote the investment firm. Shares of Tesla are rated Overweight with a $293 PT.
    • Also in the mix, automobile industry analysts noted a bit of smugness from execs out of Detroit with GM seemingly ahead of Tesla in the development of a 200-mile range mass-market EV. Some think the development is just an opening salvo in what could be a war of words over the next-gen models.
    • Pilgrim's Pride (PPC -3.8%), Tyson Foods (TSN -2.3%), and Sanderson Farms (SAFM-2.1%) all trade lower on the day.
    • The weakness could to be tied in part to concerns of tighter import restrictions from China.
    • There's also news that South Korea will lift a ban on imports from the Netherlands.
    • Some analysts think the chicken stocks have overreacted to news on avian flu and China with some core fundamentals still solid.

    Gains for large restaurant chain stocks after consumer sentiment read

    • Large restaurant chains are showing some strength after consumer sentiment rose to afive-month high.
    • The sector has done very on the pricing and mix end of the matrix, but is still seeing overall sluggish traffic trends.
    • Notable gainers include Restaurant Brands International (NYSE:QSR) +2.3%, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (NASDAQ:RRGB) +2.3%, Domino's Pizza +2.1% to a new all-time high, Yum Brands (NYSE:YUM) +1.4%, Denny's (NASDAQ:DENN) +1.2%
    • McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) is +0.6% to $96.49. Shares of MCD have poked their head over $100 a few times this year, but many analysts think the company needs to report positive U.S. comparable-store sales growth to escape its current trading range.
    • While Nike (NKE +4.5%) is doing yeoman-like work in supporting the Dow Jones Industrial Average, some other footwear/apparel stocks are ahead of market averages.
    • The group is being viewed as being in the right consumer market following a strong report from the Beaverton company.
    • Gainers: Iconix Brand Group (ICON +1.9%), Steven Madden (SHOO +1.8%), Under Armour (UA +0.6%), Hanesbrands (HBI +0.8%), Crocs (CROX +2.6%), Deckers Outdoor (DECK +1.2%), Skechers (SKX +0.4%), Wolverine Worldwide (WWW +1.5%), Caleres (CAL +2.2%), Genesco (GCO +2.3%), Shoe Carnival (SCVL +2.4%), Foot Locker (FL+2.4%).
    • The S&P Retail ETF (XRT +0.8%) is feeling the support from the athletic apparel and shoe stocks.
    • Previously: Nike beats by $0.15, beats on revenue (Jun. 25 2015)
    • Previously: Global futures at Nike top expectations (Jun. 25 2015)
    • Previously: Millennial demand underpins bright outlook for shoe stocks (Jun. 26 2015)

    Chinese Internet stocks off sharply after Shanghai falls 7.4%

    • As was the case a week ago, Chinese Web and mobile names are getting clocked in response to a sharp overseas selloff: Shanghai and Shenzhen respectively fell 7.4% and 7.9% overnight, putting their recent declines around the standard bear market threshold of 20%. The Nasdaq is down 0.4%.
    • Explanations for China's selloff range from tighter margin requirements to cautious analyst notes to speculators simply choosing to take profits following a massive run-up. Shanghai and Shenzhen's 12-month gains now stand at 106% and 132%.
    • Major U.S.-traded decliners include YY (YY -6.5%), Sohu (SOHU -5.4%), Sina (SINA-4.7%), Weibo (WB -5.2%), Xunlei (XNET -9.5%), Dangdang (DANG -8.7%), Jumei (JMEI-9.1%), Youku (YOKU -8.7%), Cheetah Mobile (CMCM -7.2%), Bitauto (BITA -6.7%), SouFun (SFUN -5.9%), ChinaCache (CCIH -5.4%), Zhaopin (ZPIN -5.6%), Wowo (WOWO-3%), and 500.com (WBAI -5.3%).
    • ETFs: CQQQKWEBQQQCEMQQ

    News Corp. reportedly winding down school tablet business

    • News Corp. (NWSNWSA) is slowing production of custom-made tablets for schools after getting little uptake, Bloomberg reports.
    • The company has invested almost $1B in its education division, Amplify, whose goal was to revamp U.S. education using a digital curriculum, the custom tablets, and testing services.
    • Sources say the division is no longer ordering new tablets though it has stock for existing customers. Amplify says it “continues to receive and consider new contract requests” for the tablets.
    • It also says it has received "several million dollars" of orders for the curriculum in the past 10 weeks.
    • The head of its tablet unit, Stephen Smyth, left in February. For the year ended June 30, 2014, Amplify posted a $193M loss on sales of $88M.
    • Micron (NASDAQ:MU) has seen one downgrade (from Mizuho) and a long list of target cuts after missing FQ3 estimates and (more importantly) providing weak FQ4 guidance. Shares are now down 44% YTD.
    • Like others, Mizuho's Vijay Rakesh (downgrade to Neutral, $30 PT) is worried about Micron's 20nm DRAM transition. "While weaker DRAM ASPs were expected, higher than expected 20nm and DDR4 transition costs could compound a PC headwind over the next 2-3 quarters. [Long-term] we continue to see structural supply discipline in memory, but we are moving to the sidelines given the near-term headwinds."
    • Morgan Stanley's Joseph Moore, whose pre-earnings downgrade to Underweight is looking good right now: "[DRAM] price weakness has spread to server, as we had forecast, but we were surprised by DRAM costs rising in the August quarter…" He notes the server pricing weakness is focused on cloud sales, with enterprise pricing more stable.
    • Bernstein's Mark Newman (Outperform, $28 PT): "We clearly massively underestimated the challenges Micron is facing with 20nm [DRAM] shrink in our recent note and because of that need to substantially cut estimates and target price … Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are likely beneficiaries of Micron’s continued low bit growth due to shrink delays."
    • Those more positive generally cite optimism about intermediate/long-term trends: Jefferies' Sundeep Bajikar (Buy, $36 PT): "We still expect DRAM under-supply in 2H15, with timing of DRAM price stabilization potentially delayed to NovQ from AugQ … We believe Micron is taking the right supply-side actions, and based on our PC inventory cycle framework, we recommend buying the stock aggressively at current levels."
    • Needham's Rajvindra Gill (Buy, $40 PT): "We expect the following: a) PC market to stabilize in C2H15 and improve heading into ’16, b) a higher ramp of TLC NAND, which should have a cost benefit, c) the new Inotera agreement yielding some level of accretion to the DRAM model, and d) 3D NAND leadership. All else equal, if market conditions improve, cost leverage should kick in, and we should see DRAM [gross margins] improve.”
    • On the CC (transcript), Micron stated PCs accounted for a low-30s % of DRAM revenue, mobile high-20s, and servers low-20s. Consumer products (cards, USB drives, components) accounted for a mid-40s % of trade NAND revenue, mobile low-20s, and SSDs high-teens.
    • Prior Micron coverage
    • Chip stocks are seeing outsized losses (SOXX -2.6%) amid a 0.8% drop for the Nasdaq following DRAM/NAND flash giant Micron's FQ3 miss and weak FQ4 guidance - the numbers were blamed on a mixture of soft PC demand, associated DRAM price pressure, and a manufacturing process transition. Some analysts have argued Micron's issues are at least partly company-specific and/or that PC and DRAM demand will improve in 2H15.
    • The Philadelphia Semi Index is now down 7% from a June 1 peak of $101.80. It's still up 2% YTD, and (thanks partly to an industry M&A wave) roughly 2x from its fall 2012 lows.
    • AMD is posting steep losses after Micron missed estimates and provided soft guidance; weak PC sales, related DRAM price pressure, and a manufacturing process transition were blamed. GPU archrival Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is off more moderately, as are Inteland various other PC and/or chip-related names.
    • AMD's selloff comes at the end of a week that has seen solid, but not quite glowing,reviews for the company's recently-launched, top-of-the-line, Fury X GPU. Gaming benchmarks generally show the water-cooled Fury X ($649 graphics card MSRP) slightly trailing Nvidia's GTX 980 Ti (also recently launched and priced at $649) in 2K and 1080p tests, but beating it in some 4K tests.
    • The 980 Ti is still seen as having an edge in overclocking and power consumption, though the Fury X is deemed much-improved over prior high-end AMD GPUs in the latter area. The consensus: The Fury X won't deliver a knockout blow for AMD, but once more makes it competitive on the (lucrative) high-end. Ars Technica: "It's been a while, but the GPU market just got interesting again."
    • In addition to PC-exposed Intel and AMD, chip stocks sporting large declines include Qorvo (QRVO -4.9%), Sigma Designs (SIGM -5.7%), MoSys (MOSY -7.9%), Anadigics (ANAD -10.8%), Silicon Motion (SIMO -6.5%), Inphi (IPHI -5.3%), PMC-Sierra (PMCS-3.8%), ON Semi (ON -4.2%), AppliedMicro (AMCC -3.7%), and Vimicro (VIMC -5.3%).
    • Chip ETFs: SMHXSDPSISOXLUSDSOXSSSG

  88. Phil I know that you mostly don't make calls on oil 90 % of the time.  I Am often still curious if you have an unexpressed opinion about the direction it might go at a given point in time. After running up I was curious if you thought it might continue to climb or would pull back as it did. Obviously you had no such opinion. 

    Regarding the Dow futures you had made a call on TF and I was curious why the Dow was so out of whack. Your answer about the individual components explained that. How do you make the calculation that Nike accounts for 40 Dow points on it $4.50 move today? 


  89. I also don't like to say anything if I don't have an opinion or someone may misinterpret it as a call, Craigs.  As to the Dow, it's price-weighted and each $1 move by any component is a bit over 8 points on the Dow.  That's why it's such a stupid index, price-weighting is ridiculous.  


  90. Obama's got himself a future as a preacher!  


  91. Amazing and praise the Lord—-  that was rousing   ;-0


  92. Phil—I am unable to upload pics could I send them to Greg at some point—-the photos r of my daughter at the WH and the Pope


  93. Dang Phil! I never knew Mike Tyson and Darryl Dawkins are considered intellectual elitists!!!

     

    FU elitists!!!!!


  94. Pics/Savi – Sure, send them to Greg or I but I'm baffled as to why you can't upload.  

    Tyson/Jabob – Oh come on, one of our great modern philosophers:


  95. Well, this is kind of a dull finish.  Nas down 0.75% now, not good.  17,850 was the level we expected on /YM, 2,093.5 on /ES failed 2,100 and 4,476 on /NQ failed 4,500 – not good outcomes.  

    STP gained a few points today.  Gotta be happy with that into the weekend.  LTP still 44.7% so we're very well-balanced.  

    Don't forget next week is a short week but lots of data, including NFP on Thursday, Home Sales, PMI, ISM, Auto Sales…

    Have a great weekend, 

    - Phil


  96. Due to my new job (and marriage), I haven't been too active in chat recently but when I read the Barnum thing, I figured I'd comment.

    I'm related to him through my mom's side; her grandmother was a Barnum.

     

    Anyway, back to work!


  97. These guys are really open minded – for example the Texas AG:

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/ken-paxton-texas-gay-marriage

    Today’s ruling by five Justices of the U.S. Supreme Court marks a radical departure from countless generations of societal law and tradition. The impact of this opinion on our society and the familial fabric of our nation will be profound. 

    So for thousand of years if was OK for families to:
    1. Own slaves
    2. Stone their spouses for adultery
    3. Force marriage or entry into a religious order to your children
    4. Allow the local noble to rape your wife and daughter

    These societal laws and traditions have been abandoned over the years and incredibly enough, society has survived! On the wrong side of history – again!


  98. Scalia's dissent in the case of Obergefell v. Hodges, which officially made marriage equality the law of the land, runs for eight pages, but amounts largely to a big, arms-crossed "harumph."

    Thomas Jefferson tells the haters to shove it:

    Funny how no one in Washington seems to actually read these things…

    Jindal condemned the Supreme Court, calling it "completely out of control."
    HILL.CM

     


  99. Great news to begin the weekend! While we still have no definitive answer from Kathy's biopsy, they have told us that they have ruled out Carcinoma in all forms! This means that she does NOT have pancreatic cancer that is so deadly. We are told that the tumor may still have been malignant, such as a sarcoma or something else, but those all have low recurrence rates and are not incurable. So, the nightmare is not over, but it got a lot less scary. Thank you all for the positive energy and prayers. I believe it makes a difference and if nothing else it did wonders for my psyche! You are all in my thoughts forever more. Thanks again for caring about me and my beloved. I married so far out of my league that it still amazes me, One of my friends recently told me that my wife (in her younger days, although she still is the same size and looks 15 years younger than her age)) looked a lot like Kate Upton and since I get mistaken for Rob Ryan (the former Cowboys defensive coach) or in my younger years Kenny Rogers, you know what I am talking about. I could never duplicate that kind of luck!


  100. Craig, Congrats!  Can't get better news before a weekend that close family is healthy and will be healthy for a long time!

    On a much less important note, two pieces of good news here. Firstly, our house flip went under contract today.  Still doesn't close till Aug 24th, but it should be around a 20% return.  Not great, but a chunk of change back in our pockets.  Secondly, the wire for selling our food truck should hit on Monday, and we won't have to work in the back breaking, spirit crushing heat.  I'm crossing my fingers so hard that my knuckles are breaking.  (I'm also back to BE at /RB :)   )

    Again Craig, blessings to you're family.


  101. Fantastic news Craigs. Very happy for both you and Kathy. 


  102. Craig that is most excellent news and Godspeed.


  103. Craigs…. great news. Anything other than pancreatic cancer is a blessing.

    Burrben  congrats on getting out of the food truck business.  From now on, flipping burgers will only occur when you choose to do so.


  104. Great news Craigs – very glad one of my rare prayers did not go to waste.  I try not to bother God much, in case he does exist I figure he's quite busy, but this one was worth it!  No woman marries "out of her league" when she finds a guy who truly loves her – I'm glad you have each other and even gladder you get to stick together, hopefully now for the ride up the roller-coaster of life – wheeeeee!  

    Good news for Burr too, we're on a roll this morning.  

    And I'm going to Disney on Friday…  cheeky


  105. Thanks again all. I think Kathy would agree with you Phil, wheeee indeed! 


  106. Craig  - Thanks for keeping us updated especially with good news! Still pulling for you and Kathy!


  107. phil, fwiw …a reminder re dry bulk….or we go with dsx


  108. Bulks/Mill – OK, but let's move the chat to the new post so we don't get confused.  


  109. craigs, really great news, I know you are relieved.  Hoping for continued good news and outcomes.


  110. Craigs – Wonderful news ! ! !