Archive for August, 2015

US & China Stocks Are Plunging After PMI Hits 6.5-Year Low, PBOC Strengthens Yuan Most Since Nov 2014

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Following China's official PMI print at a 3-year low, Caixin's PMI collapsed to 47.3 – the lowest sinec March 2009. Despite another CNY150bn liquidity injection (but the biggest strengthening of Yuan since Nov 2014 and a financial conditions tightening in FX trading), China, US, and Japanese stocks are plunging… SHCOMP -4%, Dow -280, NKY -340

Carnage!

China -4%

Dow -280…

NKY -340

Japan is now getting worried:

  • *ASO: CHINESE ECONOMY HAS BIG IMPACT ON JAPAN ECONOMY

Blood on the streets again in China…

None of this should come as a surprise to anyone as we noted earlier…

*  *  *

And as we detailed earlier…

Having exposed the culprit for all of its economic and market woes, China is likely going to have problems explaining why its economic plague is still spreading (with South Korean exports collapsing and Japanese Capex growth slowing) and China's official manufacturing PMI slipped into contraction for the first time in 6 months (to 3 year lows). Amid the face-saving clean-air of Parade Week, the appearance of awesomeness must prevail and following the worst quarter since Lehman, stocks are indicated lower despite having received some 'help' into last night's close. PBOC proxies push 'hope' as a strategy for stock stability (even as US markets and oil are re-collapsing) as margin debt drops to an 8-month low – still double YoY though. PBOC fixes Yuan 0.22% stronger- the biggest jump since Nov 2014 – as it injects another CNY150bn via 7-day rev.repo.

China's bubonic economic plague is spreading…

  • S. KOREA EXPORTS DROP BY MOST SINCE 2009, FALLING FOR 8TH MONTH

So guess who wil lbe next to devalue!

*  *  *

But having arrested the culprit for all of China's market and economic woes, following the worst 3-month slide in stocks since Lehman

And with Parade Week under way, the propaganda continues…

  • *PBOC ACADEMIC URGES ATTENTION ON STOCK MKT STABILITY: SEC TIMES

Which, he writes, means market expectations should be optimistic about the economy as they were during the bull market… even though there seems to disconnect between economic fundamentals and the
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Getting Started – The Hardest Part of Investing

 

Getting Started – The Hardest Part of Investing

Courtesy of The Banker

Let's start at the very beginning, a very good place to start...

“Let’s start at the very beginning, a very good place to start,” sings my children’s favorite nanny-from-the-movies, Maria.

School started for my girls this week, so I’m in the mood for new beginnings. New school uniforms, freshly sharpened #2 pencils, and lined notebooks still unblemished with unicorn stickers.

Besides inheritance (obviously the very best way, because remember your first $5.43 Million arrives tax free!) the next two best ways for a person to get wealthy are investing throughout your lifetime, and starting a business.[1]

Neither of these two methods – slow-and-steady investing beginning at a young age or entrepreneurship – require extraordinary talent or prior knowledge. In fact, the biggest common barrier to both methods is simply getting started.

But how does one even do that? Let’s not under-estimate the difficulty of the “getting started” part!

discount_brokerage_firms

I have a reader who regularly emails me to the effect (I’m paraphrasing a bunch of his emails) “You need to tell everybody – especially young people – how to call up a brokerage company and how to buy their first stock or mutual fund. They don’t need special knowledge, they just need to get started now, contribute regularly, and never sell. And they’ll end up rich.”

Of course he’s right. You should all totally do this.[2]

Even so, many will resist the advice.

A managerie of discount brokers. Sadly, none of them pay me to list their brands

My question back to my reader: How do we get people to start at the very beginning?

I really don’t know how to fulfill my reader’s wish of inducing people to call up a brokerage firm, open up an account, and buy their first stock or mutual fund. I wish I had the words to express the importance of beginning, like, right now.

famous_goethe_quote_beginning

Goethe didn’t really say this, but…

The German writer Johann Wolfgang von Goethe didn’t really say, but…
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The Oligarch Recovery: Low Income Americans Can’t Afford To Live In Any Metro Area

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

We were told we needed to bail out Wall Street in order to save Main Street. Well the results are in…

Wall Street has never done better, and Main Street has never done worse.

From the Huffington Post:

Low-income workers and their families do not earn enough to live in even the least expensive metropolitan American communities, according to a new analysis of families’ living costs published Wednesday.

The analysis, released by the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute, is an annual update of the think tank’s Family Budget Calculator that reflects new 2014 data. The Family Budget Calculator is a formula designed to determine the income “required for families to attain a secure yet modest standard of living” in 618 different communities across the country that the U.S. Census Bureau defines as metropolitan areas. The formula uses data collected by the government and some nonprofit groups to measure costs of housing, food, child care, transportation, health care, “other necessities” like clothing, and taxes for families of 10 different compositions in these specific locales.

The updated Family Budget Calculator shows that even the most affordable metropolitan areas in the country are beyond the reach of millions of American families with incomes above the official federal poverty level. The official federal poverty level for a family of two parents and two children in 2014 was $24,008, according to the EPI. But the least expensive metropolitan area in the country for this family type is Morristown, Tennessee, where a family needs an income of $49,114, according to the Economic Policy Institute’s budget calculator.

The Economic Policy Institute also estimates that minimum-wage workers — who almost universally earn less than the federal poverty level — lack the income needed to make an adequate living in any of the communities surveyed, even if they are single and childless. The think tank notes that this includes minimum-wage workers living in cities or states with a higher minimum wage than the federal minimum of $7.25 an hour, or $15,080 a year for a full-time worker.

Even families with incomes closer to the middle of the earnings spectrum lack the means to maintain an adequate standard of living. The nation’s median household income was $51,939 in 2013 — the most recent year in which data were available — not much


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Re: the Death Cross

Michael Batnick studies the "death cross" and finds that the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average is a short-term bad sign but post-death cross life is not as bad as the name suggests. 

Re: the Death Cross

Courtesy of Joshua Brown

Michael Batnick, our firm’s director of research, goes toe to toe with the Death Cross fixation among traders and the financial media:

On Friday the S&P 500 experienced what is known as a “death cross.” This is when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average and as you can guess by the name, is allegedly a negative signal for stocks moving forward.

A lot of work has been done to debunk the myth of the death cross and yet we continue to hear about it whether it’s in an index, a sector or a specific stock. Here are two reasons why it refuses to go away: 1) It sounds ominous, people love that and 2) over the last fifty years, a death cross occurred before each of the ten worst years. Not only did they appear but in eight of those ten years the indicator was quite timely, saving those who listened from further downside.

So if it identified the very worst years, wouldn’t it be foolish to dismiss this as a valid indicator?

Keep reading:

Beware the (stories of) the death cross (Irrelevant Investor)

Picture via Pixabay.

 





Russian Military Forces Arrive In Syria, Set Forward Operating Base Near Damascus

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While military direct intervention by US, Turkish, and Gulf forces over Syrian soil escalates with every passing day, even as Islamic State forces capture increasingly more sovereign territory, in the central part of the country, the Nusra Front dominant in the northwestern region province of Idlib and the official “rebel” forces in close proximity to Damascus, the biggest question on everyone’s lips has been one: would Putin abandon his protege, Syria’s president Assad, to western “liberators” in the process ceding control over Syrian territory which for years had been a Russian national interest as it prevented the passage of regional pipelines from Qatar and Saudi Arabia into Europe, in the process eliminating Gazprom’s – and Russia’s – influence over the continent.

As recently as a month ago, the surprising answer appeared to be an unexpected “yes”, as we described in detail in “The End Draws Near For Syria’s Assad As Putin’s Patience “Wears Thin.” Which would make no sense: why would Putin abdicate a carefully cultivated relationship, one which served both sides (Russia exported weapons, provides military support, and in exchange got a right of first and only refusal on any traversing pipelines through Syria) for years, just to take a gamble on an unknown future when the only aggressor was a jihadist spinoff which had been created as byproduct of US intervention in the region with the specific intention of achieving precisely this outcome: overthrowing Assad (see “Secret Pentagon Report Reveals US “Created” ISIS As A “Tool” To Overthrow Syria’s President Assad“).

As it turns out, it may all have been just a ruse. Because as Ynet reports, not only has Putin not turned his back on Assad, or Syria, but the Russian reinforcements are well on their way. Reinforcements for what? Why to fight the evil Islamic jihadists from ISIS of course, the same artificially created group of bogeyman that the US, Turkey, and Saudis are all all fighting. In fact, this may be the first world war in which everyone is “fighting” an opponent that everyone knows is a proxy for something else.

According to Ynet, Russian fighter pilots are expected to begin arriving in Syria in the coming days, and will fly their Russian air force fighter jets and attack helicopters against ISIS and rebel-aligned targets within
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China Strengthens Yuan Most Since Nov 2014 After PMI Hits 3-Year Low, PBOC Offers “Hope” As A Strategy For Stocks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Having exposed the culprit for all of its economic and market woes, China is likely going to have problems explaining why its economic plague is still spreading (with South Korean exports collapsing and Japanese Capex growth slowing) and China's official manufacturing PMI slipped into contraction for the first time in 6 months (to 3 year lows). Amid the face-saving clean-air of Parade Week, the appearance of awesomeness must prevail and following the worst quarter since Lehman, stocks are indicated lower despite having received some 'help' into last night's close. PBOC proxies push 'hope' as a strategy for stock stability (even as US markets and oil are re-collapsing) as margin debt drops to an 8-month low – still double YoY though. PBOC fixes Yuan 0.22% stronger- the biggest jump since Nov 2014 – as it injects another CNY150bn via 7-day rev.repo.

China's bubonic economic plague is spreading…

  • S. KOREA EXPORTS DROP BY MOST SINCE 2009, FALLING FOR 8TH MONTH

So guess who wil lbe next to devalue!

*  *  *

But having arrested the culprit for all of China's market and economic woes, following the worst 3-month slide in stocks since Lehman

And with Parade Week under way, the propaganda continues…

  • *PBOC ACADEMIC URGES ATTENTION ON STOCK MKT STABILITY: SEC TIMES

Which, he writes, means market expectations should be optimistic about the economy as they were during the bull market… even though there seems to disconnect between economic fundamentals and the stock market, while the gap between the link, it is the reflection of the policy.

Which roughly translated means – In China, hope is a strategy.. and if you are anything but hopeful you are arrested.

But then China PMI hit…

  • *CHINA MANUFACTURING PMI AT 49.7 IN AUG. – 3 Year Low – The Official PMI in contraction for first time in 6 months.
  • *CHINA NON-MANUFACTURING PMI AT 53.4 IN AUG.

"Both domestic and external demand are weak," said Tommy Xie, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore. "Market sentiment is bad and it’s too early to say the Chinese economy is bottoming out."

Don't forget – Hope fills the gap.

So having switched its focus to more economic-growth-focused measures than stock-levitation, $100s of billions later, the…
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Is This Man Responsible For China’s Stock Market Crash?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Shannon Tiezzi, originally posted at TheDiplomat.com,

If Chinese authorities are to be believed, we finally know the cause of the country’s stock market woes: a single reporter. In a video segment aired by China’s state television broadcaster, journalist Wang Xiaolu confessed to fabricating a “sensationalized” story about the stock market and claimed responsibility for having “caused panic and disorder” among China’s investors.

At issue is a story Wang wrote for Caijing on July 20, in which he reported that China Securities Regulatory Commission was looking to end interventions designed to prop up share prices. CSRC denied the report, which was removed from Caijing’s website last week. CSRC blamed Wang’s piece for a massive drop in the stock market in late July, which sparked market woes that continue today.

Caijing, a financial and business newspaper in China, often pushes the envelope of state-sanctioned media coverage. It has been particularly active in publishing investigations into the finances and business connections of officials suspected of corruption.

Wang was arrested on August 25 for “fabricating and spreading false information about securities and futures trading.” A Xinhua report said that Wang had confessed to writing a false report on China’s stock market. According to Xinhua, Wang admitted that his story “caused panics and disorder at stock market, seriously undermined the market confidence, and inflicted huge losses on the country and investors [sic].”

On Monday, CCTV aired a video confession from Wang, in which he said he was “deeply sorry” for his actions. “At such a sensitive time, I should not have published a report that negatively affected the market,” Wang said, saying he had “caused great losses to the country and to investors” all for the sake of “sensationalism.”

Reporters Without Borders condemned Wang’s arrest in a statement issued on August 28. “Suggesting that a business journalist was responsible for the spectacular fall in share prices is a denial of reality,” the international non-profit’s secretary general Christophe Deloire said in the statement. “Blaming the stock market crisis on a lone reporter is beyond absurd.”

Chinese authorities have warned media outlets not to speculate on (or devote too much coverage to) the stock market troubles. The high-profile scapegoating of Wang is likely designed to send a stern


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“It’s The Gun’s Fault!!”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Presented with no comment…

Source: Townhall.com





News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Summer's Over Get Smart on Cash Flow and Become a Very Serious Investor (Bloomberg)

In 1863, the Dowlais Iron Company had recovered from a business slump, but had no cash to invest for a new blast furnace, despite having made a profit. To explain why there were no funds to invest, the manager made a new financial statement that was called a comparison balance sheet, which showed that the company was holding too much inventory. This new financial statement was the genesis of [the] cash flow statement that is used today. In the United States in 1973, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) defined rules that made it mandatory under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (US GAAP) to report sources and uses of funds, but the definition of "funds" was not clear. Net working capital might be cash or might be the difference between current assets and current liabilities.  — The Cash Flow Statement, Wikipedia.

selloff stocks marketsA big bank's glitch adds to confusion on Wall St. (CNN)

The past week has featured an unprecedented 1,000-point plunge for the Dow, dramatic stock market rebounds and mini-flash crashes for General Electric (GE) and some exchange-traded funds.

As if those events weren't enough, a technology glitch is adding to the confusion.

Dow posts worst August decline in 17 years (Market Watch)

The month of August can be pretty rough for stock investors. But this August has earned its place in the record books, as stocks were unsettled by uncertainty over the state of affairs in the world’s second largest economy, China.

As far as Augusts go, this has been the worst in nearly two decades for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.69%

A service truck drives past an oil well on the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation in North Dakota, November 1, 2014.   REUTERS/Andrew Cullen  Stocks Fall, Oil Explodes Higher: Here's what you need to know (Business…
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The Age Of Voodoo Finance

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

The Jackson Hole gathering may end up providing at least some clarification, but not even close to the manner in which everyone seems intent on inferring. With Janet Yellen’s notable absence, there isn’t the same sort of celebrity about what would have been the media hanging upon every word; that is, after all, what the Federal Reserve has become, not an organ of stability or even expertise but a public relations effort aimed squarely at trying to convince everyone possible that it is. Given the unique circumstances at the moment, the real issue is not whether they might raise rates but just how much systemic misdirection has already been revealed even to the least attentive of people.

The retreat at Jackson Hole goes back more than thirty years to the early 1980’s and Paul Volcker’s apparent affinity for fly fishing. It had started more as a very quiet and exclusive affair but for the first time this year there were outside and competing conferences held at the same time in the same place. That configuration, I think, speaks volumes about finally understanding the broad, general terms of what monetary policy actually is.

Apparently, right next to the main central banker conclave, a left-wing group was meeting ostensibly not to target the Fed and its Wall Street bias, perceived or not, but rather to urge it against ending ZIRP.

“The economy has not fully recovered and interest rates should not be raised when racial disparities exist,” said Shawn Sebastian, a policy advocate for the Fed Up Coalition of the Center for Popular Democracy, pointing to continued higher-than-average unemployment rates for black Americans…

As Fed officials hear from central bankers from Switzerland and Chile Friday, they are doing so practically next door to a workshop called “Do Black Lives Matter to the Fed?” sponsored by Sebastian’s group, which wants rates to stay low until wage growth and unemployment improve, especially for minorities.

The Fed Up Coalition is a grab bag of union activists and community organizers, the very sorts that propelled the crude communism of Occupy Wall Street almost five years ago. This is not to say that there might be differences in what becomes embraced on the heavily governmental wing, but for a few…
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Phil's Favorites

The American GI in WWII, uncensored

 

The American GI in WWII, uncensored

Pfc Elias Friedensohn in June 1945 at the Special Services Distributing Point, Seine Section, Paris, France. National Archives

Courtesy of Edward Gitre, Virginia Tech

I can still recall the exhilaration I felt in the reading room of the National Archives in College Park, Maryland.

It was mid-April 2009. I was scrolling through roll after microfilm roll of the War Department’s “Opinion Surveys Relating to the Morale of U.S. Army Personnel.”

What I had discovered were tens of thousands of statements writte...



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Zero Hedge

The Bulls Continue To Bet On The Fed

Courtesy of Lance Roberts, RealInvestmentAdvice.com

Over the last several weeks, we have been discussing the potential for a market correction simply due to divergences in the technical indicators which suggested near-term market risk outweighed the reward. As is generally the case, bonds have been warning the bullish bias of equity investors was likely misplaced. I have updated last week’s chart for reference.

The increase in risks has had us rotating exposure in our portfolios to a more defensive tilt. We previously trimmed back our overweight exposure to Technology, Then, two weeks ago, we noted...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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