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Tuesday, April 16, 2024

China’s Exports Plunge 8% in July; Spotlight on US Trade Imbalance With China

 

Courtesy of Mish.

In addition to bubble-busting events in real estate and the Chinese stock market, China now has to deal with a plunge in exports.

Following Saturday's report Chinese Exports Slump Over Eight Percent, analysts expect more China stimulus.

Chinese exports tumbled 8.3 percent in July, their biggest drop in four months and far worse than expected, reinforcing expectations that Beijing will be forced to roll out more stimulus to support the world's second-largest economy.

Imports also fell heavily from a year earlier, in line with market forecasts but suggesting domestic demand might be too feeble to offset the weaker global demand for China's exports.

Exports to the European Union fell 12.3 percent in July while those to the United States dropped 1.3 percent. Demand from Japan, another big trading partner, slid 13 percent.

"A recovery in external demand remains far off and economic growth will continue to rely on domestic demand, which implies policies should continue to be relaxed in the second half," wrote Qu Hongbin, China economist at global bank HSBC.

China recorded a trade surplus of $43.03 billion for the month, below forecasts of $53.25 billion.

Economists also blame a strong yuan for the export weakness, with ANZ Research estimating the currency's nominal effective exchange rate has risen by 13.5 percent since June 2014.

Analysts say Beijing has been keeping its yuan strong to wean its economy off low-end export manufacturing. A strong yuan policy also supports domestic buying power, helps Chinese firms to borrow and invest abroad, and encourages foreign firms and governments to increase their use of the currency.

"These factors suggest that China's exports will continue to face strong headwinds," Liu Ligang and Louis Lam said in an ANZ Research note on Saturday, adding that they doubted Beijing would hit its trade growth target of 6 percent for this year.

Cries for More Stimulus

Excessive stimulus created property bubbles and an enormous stock market bubble.

The average stock speculator has not even graduated from high school. The Washington Post reports:…

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