Archive for September, 2015

Futures Soar After Chinese Composite PMI Drops To Lowest On Record

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Chinese markets may be closed for the next week due to a national holiday but China’s goalseeked manufacturing survey(s), which were the most anticipated data points of the evening, came right on schedule (or rather, were leaked just ahead of schedule). And they certainly did not disappoint in their disappointment.

First, it was the official NBS September PMI, which at 49.8 was the smallest possible fraction above both the previous and expected, both of which were 49.7. The number was leaked about 6 minutes before the official statement, and while the leaked print which all humans were aware of well before the official release time at 9pm Eastern, had no impact on markets, it was the flashing red headline which confirmed the leak and which was read by machine-reading algos everywhere, that sent the E-mini spasming higher.

But while the official “data” was bad, and confirmed the economy remains in contraction, the Caixin – aka the new HSBC – Markit PMIs were absolutely atrocious.

We bring you… the HSBC Manufacturing print, which dropped from 47.3 to 47.2, and which according to Caixin was the lowest print since March 2009.

From the report:

A key factor weighing on the headline index was a sharper contraction of manufacturing output in September. According to panellists,
worsening business conditions and subdued client demand had led firms to cut their production schedules. Weaker customer demand was highlighted by a further fall in total new orders placed at Chinese goods producers in September. Furthermore, the rate of reduction was the steepest seen for just over three years. Data suggested that the faster decline in total new business partly stemmed from a sharper fall in new export work. The latest survey showed new orders from abroad declined at the quickest rate since March 2009.

The job market continued to be a disaster:

Reflective of lower workloads, manufacturing companies cut their staff numbers again in September. Moreover, the latest reduction in employment was the fastest seen in 80 months. Meanwhile, reduced production capacity led to an increased amount of unfinished work, though the pace of backlog accumulation was only slight.

And then there’s deflation: 

Manufacturing companies noted a further steep decline in average cost burdens during September. Furthermore, the rate of deflation was the sharpest


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New Patch for U.S. Troops Fighting ISIS… Looks Like ISIS Logo

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Mac Slavo of SHTFplan.com

New Patch for U.S. Troops Fighting ISIS… Looks Like ISIS Logo


Believe it or not, American soldiers fighting against ISIS in Syria and Iraq will actually be wearing the emblem of ISIS – the infamous crossed-swords logo. Well, almost.

Controversy has stirred because many think the patch looks too much like our boys are fighting for the enemy… just another sign of confusion about the counterproductive Obama-led war against the notorious and shamefully exploitative jihadist army.

The Military Times noted that:

“A combat patch worn by U.S. soldiers who served in Iraq on the mission against Islamic State is drawing flak from service members and veterans who say the patch — with its palm wreath, stars and crossed scimitars — looks like something the enemy would wear.”

Site like JihadWatch are arguing that the:

“new U.S. Army patch for fight against the Islamic State closely resembles Muslim Brotherhood logo.”

While the Islamic State is using barbaric tactics to remake the Middle East closer to its own vision of a Caliphate, the United States and its allies also seek to remake the Middle East, and use the  specter of terrorism to aid in regime change in Syria and elsewhere.

The triangulation and cross-purposes are both confusing and aggravating to many Americans.

According to USA Today:

Soldiers in Iraq will soon have a new shoulder sleeve patch to signify their service in the fight against the Islamic State.

All told, there are about 3,335 troops in the region training Iraqi troops, providing security and conducing bombing missions on Islamic State targets in Iraq and neighboring Syria.

The Army’s patch features crossed scimitars, a palm wreath and stars. The scimitars, short swords with curved blades, are meant to symbolize the twin goals of the U.S.-led coalition: to defeat the Islamic State, also referred to as ISIL, and to restore stability in the region, according to Army documents.

Arguably the “twin goals” of Operation Inherent Resolve – better known as the fight against ISIS / ISIL – is fitting with the War on Terrorism in general which always, like a double sword, cut both ways. Symbolically, the double sword cuts both ways, and plays of opposite goals, and embraces conflict, which creates…
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A Desperate China Caps Card Withdrawals In Frantic Attempt To Stem Outflows

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Earlier this month we documented Beijing’s mad dash to tighten up capital controls in China in order to stem outflows in the wake of the PBoC’s move to transition towards a new FX regime. 

Put simply, expectations that a (much) deeper devaluation is on the horizon coupled with China’s efforts to manage the fallout from those expectations by liquidating hundreds of billions in FX reserves to support the onshore and offshore spots have understandably put authorities on edge, leading directly to efforts to stop the bleeding.

As we put it a few weeks ago, “while China may succeed in maintaining an orderly pace of FX depreciation, if the local population is concerned it will lose substantial purchasing power in the coming months and years, it will accelerate the capital flight from the country, forcing even greater reserve liquidation as the government finds itself defending not only the capital but also the current account, not to mention the sheer capital flight panic resulting from the crashing stock market.”

Of course one of the more straightforward ways of circumventing China’s official capital controls has been by “abusing” UnionPay cards. Roughly speaking, the process works like this (via Reuters):

Growing numbers of Chinese are using the country’s state-backed bankcards to illegally spirit billions of dollars abroad, a Reuters examination has found.

This underground money is flowing across the border into the gambling hub of Macau, a former Portuguese colony that like Hong Kong is an autonomous region of China. And the conduit for the cash is the Chinese government-supported payment card network, China UnionPay.

In a warren of gritty streets around Macau’s ritzy casino resorts, hundreds of neon-lit jewellery, watch and pawn shops are doing a brisk business giving mainland Chinese customers cash by allowing them to use UnionPay cards to make fake purchases – a way of evading China’s strict currency-export controls.

On a recent day at the Choi Seng Jewellery and Watches company, a middle-aged woman strode to the counter past dusty shelves of watches. She handed the clerk her UnionPay card and received HK$300,000 ($50,000) in cash. She signed a credit card receipt describing the transaction as a “general sale”, stuffed the cash into her handbag and strolled over to the Ponte 16 casino next door.

The withdrawal far exceeded the daily


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State Makes It Legal To Shoot Cops In Self-Defense If They Violate Your Rights

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by M. David via TheAntiMedia.org,

Is it ever legal to shoot cops? A growing number of states are passing laws that say that yes, in fact, sometimes it is well within a citizen’s rights to shoot a police officer.

Other states have already ruled in favor of citizens shooting police officers in self-defense, (even hip-hop legend Tupac walked after shooting two cops in self-defense) now, in the state of Indiana, if a police officer initiates aggression without cause in someone’s home, violence can be used against them in self-defense – including using lethal force.

The new law was drafted to “recognize the unique character of a citizen’s home and to ensure that a citizen feels secure in his or her own home against unlawful intrusion by another individual or a public servant.”

This should hardly be seen as profound. In the past, self-defense was viewed as a human right. The Bill of Rights does not grant rights to the citizenry of the United States, it recognizes natural rights. One of those rights — a veritable law of Nature — is the right to resist.

No matter what one does, or takes from you, nothing can stop the innate right to follow our natural impulses of resistance. That does not mean all will exercise that right. But the right itself is natural, primordial, inborn.

The new amendment in Indian recognizes this. It makes it clear that badges do not grant special rights to break into someone’s house and commit acts of violent aggression. If they do, the resident has the right to resist those illegal actions and defend themselves.

The Free Thought Project notes that many police officers “have already begun to fear monger the passage of this bill,” saying “If I pull over a car and I walk up to it and the guy shoots me, he’s going to say, ‘Well, he was trying to illegally enter my property.’”

This fear mongering comes from Joseph Hubbard, 40, the president of Jeffersonville Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 100, who asserts “somebody is going get away with killing a cop because of this law.”

In spite of these statements, here’s what the law actually states:

(i) A person is justified in using reasonable force against a public servant if the person reasonably believes the


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Is This The Scariest Chart In America This Week?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Either, a) BLS payrolls data is entirely ‘made-up’, or b) US jobs are being created in some other regions than the six major Fed surveys. Either way, this chart will strike fear into the heart of Janet Yellen as she ‘hopes” for some cover for her rate-hike… before the whole house of cards collapses…

Are we about to see the negative payroll print that confirms a) No Fed rate-hike, and b) No Recovery?

h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer





This Is How Russia Handles Terrorists: Moscow Releases Video Of Syria Strikes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Now that Russia has officially begun conducting airstrikes on anti-regime forces operating in Syria, commentators, pundits, and analysts around the world will be keen to compare and contrast the results of Moscow’s efforts with the year-old US-led air campaign against ISIS targets in Syria and Iraq. 

Clearly, Russia has a very real incentive to ensure that its airstrikes are effective.

Preserving the global balance of power means preserving the Assad regime and, by extension, ensuring that Iran maintains its regional influence.

On the other hand, the US and its regional allies actually have an incentive to ensure that their airstrikes are minimally effective. That is, for the US, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, the idea is not to kill Frankenstein, but rather to ensure that he doesn’t escape the lab. 

As we documented earlier today, Russia wasted no time launching strikes against anti-regime targets once the country’s lawmakers gave the official go-ahead and the West wasted no time accusing Russia of breaking protocol by targeting “modetrate” Syrian rebels (like al-Qeada) that aren’t aligned with ISIS.

It’s against that backdrop that we present the following footage released by the Russain Ministry of Defense which depicts the opening salvo in The Kremlin’s battle against terrorism in the Middle East (note the vehicle traveling towards the compound at a particularly inopportune time towards the end).

And predictably, Western media reports regarding civilian casualties and Russia’s alleged targeting of “moderate” rebels (as opposed to ISIS) were countered by Moscow’s sharp-tongued spokeswoman and US foreign policy critic extraordinaire Maria Zakharova.

Via RT:

Russia has struck eight Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL) targets in Syria, the country’s Defense Ministry said, adding that “civilian infrastructure” was avoided during the operations.

“Today, Russian aerospace force jets delivered pinpoint strikes on eight ISIS terror group targets in Syria. In total, 20 flights were made,” spokesperson for the Russian Defense Ministry, Igor Konashenkov, said. 

“As a result, arms and fuel depots and military equipment were hit. ISIS coordination centers in the mountains were totally destroyed,” he added.

Konashenkov said that all the flights took place after air surveillance and careful verification of the data provided by the Syrian military. He stressed that Russian jets did not target any civilian infrastructure and avoided these territories.

“Russian jets did not use weapons on civilian


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The Coming Corporate “Crime Wave”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by William L Anderson via The Mises Institute,

In a recent appearance before Congress, Deputy Attorney General Sally Quillian Yates declared that the US Department of Justice is going to ratchet up its prosecution of individuals employed in corporations as part of a larger push against “white collar crime.” There is no doubt that such prosecutions will be very popular to a large section of voters, given that presidential candidates like Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, and Martin O’Malley, along with Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren pretty much have declared that nearly all American businesses are part of a massive criminal conspiracy that must be brought down by federal authorities.

Within the next year, we should expect to see mid-level business and finance executives doing “perp walks” in front of the news media, as federal prosecutors will charge them with various “economic crimes” in hopes that they will implicate their superiors. All of us by now know the drill and in a time of anemic economic growth complete with business failures, it won’t be hard to find scapegoats.

Everyone Is “Guilty”

When famed civil liberties attorney Harvey Silverglate published his now-famous book, Three Felonies a Day, it caused quite a stir. Going through a number of very disturbing cases, Silverglate made clear that if federal prosecutors want to target an individual, it is very easy to fashion criminal charges against them.

To prove his point, he noted how the federal prosecutors in New York when Rudy Giuliani was US Attorney for the Southern District of New York regularly played a game in which they would see if various celebrities and others, including Mother Theresa, had broken federal criminal law. The result, unfortunately, was that for each person no matter how good his or her public character, a federal statue existed that would place them in prison.

Being that Giuliani’s prosecutors — and Giuliani himself — regularly committed felonies by selectively leaking grand jury information to favored journalists in order to damage the ability of accused people to defend themselves. He also did it to stoke the fires of the anti-business mobs, and these prosecutors were quite familiar with how to fashion the ever-malleable federal statutes to turn ordinary acts into crimes. During the 1980s, when Giuliani was at DOJ, the


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Oct 1 – Fed’s Dudley: Will Make Sure QE Withdrawal Won’t Roil Markets

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Pivotfarm.

EMOTION MOVING MARKETS NOW: 24/100 EXTREME FEAR

PREVIOUS CLOSE: 12/100 EXTREME FEAR

ONE WEEK AGO: 31/100 FEAR

ONE MONTH AGO: 14/100 EXTREME FEAR

ONE YEAR AGO: 12/100 EXTREME FEAR 

Put and Call Options: EXTREME FEAR During the last five trading days, volume in put options has lagged volume in call options by 14.57% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. However, this is still among the highest levels of put buying seen during the last two years, indicating extreme fear on the part of investors.

Market Volatility:  NEUTRAL The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at 24.50. This is a neutral reading and indicates that market risks appear low.

Stock Price Strength: FEAR The number of stocks hitting 52-week lows exceeds the number hitting highs and is at the lower end of its range, indicating fear.

 

PIVOT POINTS

EURUSD | GBPUSD | USDJPY | USDCAD | AUDUSD | EURJPY | EURCHF | EURGBPGBPJPY | NZDUSD | USDCHF | EURAUD | AUDJPY 
 
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Overheard At The Pentagon: “Right Now, We Are Putin’s Prison Bitch”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Those who frequent these pages are well aware of what’s happened to Washington’s strategy in Syria over the past several weeks. Russia’s dramatic move to enter the fray has left the US trapped, as the West attempts to hang on to a narrative that’s no longer convincing even to a largely ignorant public. 

Now, the only thing left to do is either stand down and let Moscow do as it pleases in support of the Assad regime, or else get on board and acquiesce to the inevitable. 

Or, summed up in simpler terms…





Becoming China: From Shale Malinvestment Boom To “We Are Overbuilt” Bust

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Nothing highlighted a malinvestment-driven "if we build it they will come" boom (and subsequence complete bust) better than China's so-called "ghost cities." But now, thanks to The Fed's "lower for longer" enabling of every and any zombie company in the world, many previous oil-boomtowns across Texas and North Dakota are facing a real-estate crisis. As Bloomberg reports, the former bustling "man-camps" of towns like Williston, ND are now desolate with hundreds of skeletons or wood & cement as predictions that fracking would sustain production and a robust tax base for decades have failed completely.

Chain saws and staple guns echo across a $40 million residential complex under construction in Williston, North Dakota, a few miles from almost-empty camps once filled with oil workers. As Bloomberg reports, after struggling to house thousands of migrant roughnecks during the boom, the state faces a new real-estate crisis: The frenzied drilling that made it No. 1 in personal-income growth and job creation for five consecutive years hasn’t lasted long enough to support the oil-fueled building explosion.

Civic leaders and developers say many new units were already in the pipeline, and they anticipate another influx of workers when oil prices rise again. But for now, hundreds of dwellings approved during the heady days are rising, skeletons of wood and cement surrounded by rolling grasslands, with too few residents who can afford them.

“We are overbuilt,” said Dan Kalil, a commissioner in Williams County in the heart of the Bakken, a 360-million-year-old shale bed, during a break from cutting flax on his farm. “I am concerned about having hundreds of $200-a-month apartments in the future.”

The surge began in 2006, when rising oil prices made widespread hydraulic fracturing economically feasible. The process forces water, sand and chemicals down a well to crack rock and release the crude. Predictions were that fracking would sustain production and a robust tax base for decades.

Laborers descended on the state, many landing in temporary settlements of recreational vehicles, shacks and even chicken coops. Energy companies put up some workers in so-called man camps. In 2011, Williams County commissioners approved 12,000 beds, says Michael Sizemore, the county building official.

Everyone levered up on this "no-brainer"…

The camps were supposed to be an interim solution until subdivision and apartment complexes could


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Zero Hedge

Visualizing The 150 Apps That Power The Gig Economy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Go back in time a decade, and you’d have a tough time convincing anyone that they would be “employed” through an app on their phone.

And yet, as Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins explains, in a short period of time, the emergence of the smartphone has enabled the gig economy to flourish into a multi-trillion dollar global market. And by leveraging apps like Uber, Airbnb, and Etsy, it’s estimated that ...



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Phil's Favorites

What's going on with Blue Apron?

By Ilene 

The Blue Apron business model appears, perhaps, flawed. While the service is convenient, I think it would appeal mostly to very busy people who don't have time to shop for food -- but enjoy cooking -- and have enough money that the trade off between paying for food delivery vs. spending time shopping is worth it. Here's the unfortunate stock chart and some numbers from Yahoo:

The company has been losing money, and is projected to lose money again next year. Revenue is projected to decrease in 2019 from the 2018 level, but pick up again in 2020, though still below 2018's revenue. Maybe a larger company that could integrate APRN's services into its existing infrastructure should acquire APRN and save it from its apparent...



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Chart School

Palladium minor cycle bottom

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Once again RealVision TV posts another trade idea, long palladium. We shall review it with our RTT cycle tools and parallel channels.







Any trader will be concerned with the supply shock at $1800 which pushed down price quickly. Profit taking maybe, sure! The question, is there more supply out (or more profit taking) there ready to dump on the market, either now or after any minor advance. This why waiting for the 'C' wave of the A-B-C to form over some more time is a good idea, and once done, we want to see solid buying moving price up before acting, after all we do not want to be early or a lonely bull (Richard Wyckoff logic). 

The parallel channel highl...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Banks Sending Bearish Message To Stocks, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Quality bull markets prefer to see Banks stronger than the broad markets or at least keeping up with it. Concerns often crop up when banks reflect relative weakness compared to the S&P.

This chart looks at the Bank Index (BKX) over the past few years, reflecting a falling channel of lower highs and lower lows has taken place inside of falling channel (1). This falling channel has now been in play for the past 15-months.

The index hit the bottom of the channel in December of 2018 and a counter-trend rally took place. The rally off the December lows saw the index hit the top...



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Insider Scoop

Analyst: US Sanctions 'May Not Kill Huawei'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order Wednesday that limits how "foreign adversaries" conduct business with U.S. companies.

What Happened

The Department of Commerce said China's Huawei and 70 related companies will be included in the "Entity ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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