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Turnaround Tuesday – Terrible Chinese Data Trumped by Barron’s Cover

expand large imageStocks could rally 10% by the end of the year!  

That's the proclamation on the cover of Barron's (owned by Murdoch) this week as they excitedly proclaim that DESPITE market turbulence, Wall Street's "TOP" strategists see 2,150 as their S&P target for the end of the year – 10% up from Friday's 1,921.22 close.  

It doesn't matter that China's imports fell 13.8% in August (the 10th consecutive down month) while imports (mostly commodities used to make the exports) fell 5.5% as well.  While that's much worse than the -8.2% predicted by "top strategists" only weeks ago, it may be SO BAD that China has no choice but to add more stimulus.  In other words, the news is so bad – it's good!  

Chinese officials lowered their 2014 growth estimates to 7.3%, which is 20% higher than the 6% track they are currently on so that's another reason to get stimulus fever because only a MASSIVE boost of some kind (or some very creative accounting) is going to get them anywhere near that number.  Last year, China's GDP hit their target of $10,000,000,000,000.00 to the penny – so it doesn't pay to bet against their "predictions."  

Speaking of predictions, here's a few from the Barron's article:


I don't want to pick on any one individual (in fact I started to and it came out mean so I deleted it) but if you simply google the names of these analysts, you'll see that they've been bullish all year and that a lot of their predictions would have been a disaster had you followed them and essentially they are dying for the market to recover so they don't look like total idiots (not that anyone is ever held accountable in this business).  

These are, without a doubt, powerful people and their recommendations send millions of sheeple stampeding into equity positions because they represent firms with tens or hundreds of Billions of Dollars under management.  As you probably know, we went to mainly cash last week and, this weekend, we discussed our CAUTIOUS strategy for buying back in - but we didn't mean TODAY!  

More than anything else, what scares me in this market environment is whatever scares THEM so much that they are TERRIFIED to allow the markets to make even a normal(ish) 10% correction without immediately trying to prop things back up.  Healthy markets need to let off steam every once in a while – it's how we build a healthy base that we can move higher from.  Without that – every floor is fragile and every ceiling is just another looming rejection.  

Even the enthusiastic 2,150 target by the Barron's Booster Club is only back at the year's high.  Of course your brokers (who employ those analysts) and the Billionaire owner of Barron's want you to keep your money in the market.  That's how they make their money – by scraping the fees off of yours!  If you take your money out – who are they going to rob tomorrow?

Keep 'em churning and burning is what a brokerage manager tells his sales people (known to you as your financial adviser).  That's churning your account by constantly moving in and out of positions and burning fees where "burning" refers to what's happening to your account balance as the fees drain it dry.   

Sometimes it's a perfectly valid to simply opt not to play (advice given by the great WOPR) yet so many investors fear it.  Cash happens to be a valid asset class, only it doesn't feel that way – and certainly not when inflation is rising at 3-4 times the rate the Government reports and stock market gains make your cash pile seem smaller every day.  

The markets are now back to where we made our cash call last week and we're certainly not going to be all impressed by these gyrations – especially as they are driven by thin pre-market trading in the US and more empty promises of stimulus and more QE – all the things that got us to this precipice in the first place.  

What we will be watching is our Big Chart and our Bounce lines which, taking into account this morning's pre-market pump job, look like this:

  • Dow 16,200 (weak) and 16,650 (strong) 
  • S&P 1,900 (weak) and 1,950 (strong) 
  • Nasdaq 4,550 (weak) and 4,700 (strong)
  • NYSE 10,050 (weak) and 10,300 (strong)
  • Russell 1,130 (weak) and 1,160 (strong).

These are the same bounce lines we've been looking for since the big drop on 8/24 and the S&P already popped to 1,988 and we took that as a sign to cash out – not to go long so, with all due respect to Barron's "Top Analysts", we'll sit this one out, thank you, and wait to see how the week unfolds – especially with the Fed indecision coming on the 17th, where they will announce that hikes will come in October (28th), as long as the economy behaves itself.  

Wednesday night (9:30 pm, EST) we get China's CPI and PPI reports and the BOE has it's rate decision Thursday morning (7am) and our own PPI is out Friday, so plenty of data to chew on this week and, as noted in our weekend posts – PLENTY of stocks to buy at a lovely discount – so no reason to hurry.

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  1. One word… Awesome! LOL

    Copper up 3.5%, maybe that rout is over? Index futures chart looks like that bump is being sold, we shall see. It is Monday after all… oh wait… never mind.

  2. Buy muppets, BUY!

  3. Now, that's a nice stimulus for the weekend:

    According to a press release from AAA, most U.S. drivers will pay the lowest gas prices since 2004 for the busy Labor Day weekend. The national average price of gas is $2.44 per gallon, which is 99 cents per gallon less than a year ago. U.S. consumers should save more than $1 billion on gasoline over the holiday weekend compared to 2014, with many drivers saving about $15-$25 on every trip to the gas station. 

  4. Good Morning All! 

    Here's the link for today's webinar (1pm Eastern):

  5. Wow, even Scowcroft supports the Iran deal:

    My generation is on the sidelines of policymaking now; this is a natural development. But decades of experience strongly suggest that there are epochal moments that should not be squandered. President Nixon realized it with China. Presidents Reagan and George H.W. Bush realized it with the Soviet Union. And I believe we face it with Iran today.

    I guess it's down to politics only now!

  6. Good morning 

  7. Too advanced to stop projects despite the oil price:

    The last place oil producers want to be when prices plummet to profit-demolishing lows is midstream on a billion-dollar project in one of the costliest parts of the planet to extract crude.
    Yet that’s exactly where half a dozen oil sands operators from Suncor Energy Inc. to Brion Energy Corp. find themselves with prices for Canadian oil now hovering around $30 a barrel. While all around them projects have been postponed or canceled, their investments were judged too far along when the oil game suddenly moved from offense to defense.
    These projects will add at least another 500,000 barrels a day — roughly a 25 percent increase from Alberta — to an oversupplied North American market by 2017. For companies stuck spending billions in a downturn, the time required to earn back their investments will lengthen considerably, said Rafi Tahmazian, senior portfolio manager at Canoe Financial

  8. Cool chart for Labor Day:

    One thing they don’t say explicitly, but is important: the next time you hear someone claiming that middle-class families have, in fact, seen a big rise in living standards, you should know that to the extent that this is true (which is less than claimed), it’s mainly about working more hours. Pay really has almost stagnated despite rising productivity.

  9. Phil / Mkts – What do you see driving the mkts this week.  

  10. Good Morning!

  11. Dick Bove, (Somewhat of a blowhard in my opinion) makes a strong case for JPM, C, and BAC.

  12. Vix down – AAPL up before Announce on Tuesday

  13. Good morning! 

    /TF rolling over a bit but other indexes hanging in there so far (but off the highs) with Europe up 1.5-2%.  

    Nas over 4,275 is strong, no matter what else is happening but 1,960 is crucial for the S&P but keep in perspective where we are on the Big Chart with Dow 300 points BELOW -5% and NYSE 400 points BELOW and RUT just 10 above at 1,150.  

    Oil ran almost up to $46 (+$1,000) but back to $45.31 now – congrats to those who caught my morning call.  /RB hit $1.42 ($840) but now BELOW $1.40 again – crazy!  

    I wish I had the balls to play /NG bullish into hurricane season.  Just too scary here but we do have a UNG play somewhere.  

    LOL Mkucstars. 

    $1Bn/StJ – Unfortunately, it's just $5 per driver, which is good but not enough for a hotel room.  Movies choices were the worst I remember for a Labor Day Weekend – what's up with that?  There wasn't a single movie my kids wanted to see and they wouldn't go to the Man from Uncle with me.  frown

    Iran/StJ – It's all politics (as is the Hillary Email thing).  A deal has been negotiated and we got the best deal we could get which accomplished all the goals we needed to accomplish relating to this issue.  The right now wants a deal that permanently disarms Iran and other ridiculous things Conservatives want to punish their rival radical religious political faction.  It's funny how the GOP has gotten more against the deal than they were when it was first announced – 100% political – doesn't matter at all what's good for the country.  That was April, now it's this.  Good shot by Rubio at the end saying "If Hillary was TRAFFICKING in sensitive and classified information…"  - the guy is a total pro.

    Projects/StJ – That's why these things take so long to finally unwind but also why I'm comfortable being long into 2017 (from the low $40s), when all those cancelled projects begin causing shortages.  

    Good chart. 

    Driving/Batman – Fed rumors, China rumors, EU rumors and a little data.  

    Bove/Albo – This is the guy who told people to sell their homes to buy Lehman and Bear Strearns.

    Here are five of Deal Journal’s favorite Dick Bove prognostications/utterances, and how they’ve turned out:

    The Debt Ceiling of Doom: In late July, Bove said Congress wouldn’t meet the Aug. 2 deadline for raising the debt ceiling, nor did he believe Congress would push through a $4 trillion deficit-cutting plan. Bove wrote that he saw “increasing desire” among the Washington crowd to force the government into a partial shutdown. “For the moment I would suggest suspending investing since all stocks are likely to fall,” Bove said.

    Outcome: Bove was sort of right. Congress indeed voted to raise the debt-ceiling, but only at the 11th hour (or the 11th hour, 59 minutes and 59 seconds), and not without kicking the deficit can down the road. Bove’s recommendation to stop stock investing immediately was right in the short term. After Standard & Poor’s cut the U.S.’s credit rating on Aug. 5, markets went to seed. Until they rebounded. Now, the Dow is up a touch for the year.

    Bove Hearts Ken Lewis: Ken Lewis retired as Bank of America CEO at the end of September 2009, after the bank needed at least two government bailouts. As recently as November 2009, Bove was calling for Ken Lewis to stay on as CEO, and he said big BofA investors supported this view. Bove said Lewis was responsible for “outrageously high loan losses” and always put expansion ahead of shareholder returns, but BofA also said Lewis “knows the company better than anyone else and he knows how to operate it,” and “convincing him to return would be the biggest morale builder that management could get.”

    Outcome: Current Bank of America management has its share of detractors as the bank’s stock price sinks and as it works through tens of billions of dollars in charges, legal settlements and other expenses related to the Countrywide acquisition Lewis had championed. Ken Lewis remains retired.

    “Wait! Stop! Think!”: Following the collapse of Bear Stearns in early 2008 and the ensuing credit panic, Bove wrote that the banking business was sound and that bank stocks were a buy. “The last time an opportunity of this nature existed to buy bank stocks this cheap was in 1990,” Bove wrote. “The next time will be in 20 years. This is a once in a generation opportunity.”

    Outcome: The financial system nearly came apart in the fall of 2008. Bove, who was right in warning of a housing bubble in 2005, was very wrong this about banks.

    Regulators, Leave Those Banks Alone: Bove’s bête noire of late is what he believes to be misguided regulatory changes (and regulators) in the banking business. In August, Bove wrote this about the New York attorney general opting out of a settlement on mortgage practices at big banks: “These ‘pols’ are about to achieve their apparently most desired goal, they could see the industry leave the state altogether.  This is happening at an accelerating rate. One can only marvel at the cheers in Albany as the state’s leaders achieve financial obscurity.”

    A year ago, Bove wrote about the FDIC’s role during the financial crisis: “Unlike the heads of the Federal Reserve (FRB) who have repeatedly acknowledged their failure to act before the financial crisis, the FDIC has never done so.” And he suggested FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair, “knew what was wrong but did nothing about it.”

    Outcome: Dodd-Frank, Basel III and a regulatory crackdown on mortgage settlements aren’t going away. Sheila Bair did leave the FDIC. Still, on regulation Bove continues to say what everyone else on Wall Street is thinking (but is afraid to mumble above a whisper).

    Sell. Goldman. Right. Now: In an attention grabbing report in May, Bove said investors should get out of Goldman Sachs stock immediately. “It now appears that the pressure on the Justice Department to bring a criminal lawsuit against Goldman is building to a high pitch,” Bove wrote in a research note. “It is clear to outsider that there must be a major restructuring of the company at the Board and executive suite levels or Congress will not be satisfied.”

    Outcome: The Justice Department hasn’t (yet) brought the hammer down on Goldman, nor was there major shakeup at Goldman since the spring. A few moths after his “high pitch” note, Bove raised his stock target on the company to “neutral,” and said its stock was cheap. “One might argue that the adjustment in the value of the stock has taken into account the new outlook,” Bove wrote in August.

    1,150 failing, /ES down to 1,951, /YM 16,400 failed, /NQ right at 4,275 but not good if it fails too (now it's the laggard but dangerous with AAPL, of course).  

  14. Phil – How was Man from Uncle?

  15. Man from Uncle was one of my favorite shows growing up as they showed it in France…

  16. Phil – Good stuff on Bove. :-)

  17. Uncle/1020 – I didn't see it.  My kids hated the idea of it, so we didn't go.  I may have to go by myself this week before it goes away. 

    Thanks Albo. 

    Interesting Iran survey:

    Negative Views of Iran Agreement Among Those Aware of Deal

    Wide Partisan Divide Over Iran Deal

    Majority of Republicans Have No Confidence Iran Will Abide by Deal

    Views of the Iran Deal Differ With Different Question Wording

    I love that they point out the bias of the wording of the surveys.  23 point-difference in approval depending on how they word it – that's why surveys are BS, including economic ones like PPI or even EIA and API inventory reports which are, after all, surveys taken from biased industry players and not some scientific measurement of actual supply.  

    Then those BS numbers are crunched by BS analysts who work for people who tell them the outcome they are looking for before they even write the reports (SA does this all the time – it's everywhere).  Analysts who don't know how to play the game disappear and the ones that know where their bread is buttered, like Bove, have infinite job security – no matter how terrible their analysis is.  

  18. I did a write-up on the 5% Portfolio this morning (nothing new) and here's how the others stand after last week's changes (right click and open in new tab to see bigger versions).  

    Short-Term Portfolio (STP):

    Long-Term Portfolio (LTP):  

    On the whole, I'd rather have $1M cash and no positions and be taking in the leaves changing up at Lake Tahoe, waiting for that first snow of the season…   Still, I guess this is a reasonable compromise and we have way over $1M in cash – just a few positions weighing down our totals (for now).

    Butterfly Portfolio:

    LOL – We didn't touch it and it had the best performance last week.  I say it every time that I LOVE this portfolio the most – it's just so relaxing!  

    Those of you who have been playing a while may notice that our monthly gains are accelerating – that's normal as our positions mature and we're able to add more.  Also, the higher VIX does help for our premium selling and it also makes our long calls and puts more expensive, so some of that will reverse if the markets calm down.  

    Overall, I'm pleased with the performance and I'm pleases with our current stance going into the end of the year.  If the Barron's people are right and we pop 10% into the end of the year, then our -$197K in the LTP will improve substantially and we stand to make another $200K in that portfolio.  What we have to watch now is how much money a 1% move up in the market costs our STP and, as of today, it looks like about $4,000, which is fine as it means we're just slightly bearish overall.  

  19. For poker fans, best free site I've found is Hogwild poker. Best competition I've found for a free site and some small cash prizes. It's league based. Won a 166 person tournament last night, great fun if you want to keep your skills sharp!

  20. /CL – Reversing.

  21. Might be interesting if you are into REIT:

    Options are not great though.

  22. COR / Phil – True, the dividend is not great but there seems to be more room for capital appreciation. And they have increased dividend by big numbers each year (18% in 2015). Looks interesting though…

  23. Wheee on /SI (my weekend pick at $14.50):

    Submitted on 2015/07/07 at 12:44 pm

    Silver/StJ – I don't have an extraction cost either.  Simply observe that $14.50 on /SI is about $1,050 on /YG so I consider both to be firm bottoms.  Silver has some industrial demand and consumers of jewelry not as sensitive to changes in silver since it barely impacts the overall purchase (in $$$, not %) so silver can be stickier than gold when prices dip.  Still, it could drop to $10 – I just don't think it could stay there long but that's $25,000 per contract from here – so you DO NOT want to be on the wrong side of that trade!  

    Submitted on 2015/08/06 at 6:55 am

    Gold $1,083.9, silver I still like long at $14.50 (/SI), copper is pathetic at $2.35 and nat gas $2.76 is still doing OK, considering. 

    Submitted on 2015/08/06 at 9:38 am

    /NKD will fail 20,700 if the Dollar fails 98 so also a good one to watch for a short and I can't believe we got another crack at $14.50 silver!  

    Submitted on 2015/08/18 at 10:13 am

    /SI/Deano – Ouch, what a drop.  Gold too, down to $1,109 but silver down almost 4%, which is a nice 2nd chance to go long at $14.50 if you are brave/crazy enough.

    Submitted on 2015/08/31 at 3:19 am

    I'd take a long pop on /SI over the $14.50 line too. 

    Submitted on 2015/09/03 at 10:09 am

    Gold got trashed (thanks Barrons), back to $1,121.50 this morning and poor silver almost got to $14.50, where I certainly like it long (/SI). 

    Submitted on 2015/09/07 at 8:33 am

    As always, I like /SI long at $14.50:

    You can still catch /YG, just passing $1,225 (tight stops below, of course):

  24. From Briefing :

    IBM pops after Warren Buffet on CNBC says Berkshire bought IBM during Q3  

  25. Phil,

    2134 sideways to 2132

    since Aug 18

    2103 – 1867

    1993 -1903

    1975 – 1911

    1960 this AM and at 1948 now this is its waterloo for this set.

    This head fake will have to survive the quad witching coming up, and should a a huge boost when the Fed does nothing on Sept 17th, or gets kicked down the hill like Humpty Dumpty if they raise. Then October awaits and December, Santa's not coming.  He had to sell the sleigh to make the increased assessments in his property taxes, and to make it through the hard winter ahead, he chewed out Rudolph, as in made reindeer sausage and jerky.

    There is a hedge fund buying boat loads of long duration UST's at a discount right now.  He is the largest institutional hedge position in both DrHorton and Pulte.  In effect doubling down LONG on housing and long bond yields.  He did the same thing in 2009 – 2010.  He is banking that as this house of cards in equities blows up, longer duration UST's get the bid in a flight to safety.  Caveat emptor, there are differences between then and now as in the size of PBOC, BOJ and EM holdings of long duration UST's.  But where else can they go? We may be soiled and tattered, but we are still the least dirty shirt in the laundry.

    After pulling the plug last week, the cover of Barron's is the best confirmation you could ever get.  It doesn't get any better.  What do your senses and stretched out feelings tell you? Trust them.  They are going to play the retail suckers, all the way down, play them instead.

  26. ATW/Phil – perspective on these guys? recently started a pretty strong dividend (this year), while retiring a little debt and just a small share issuance.  Good time to start nibbling?  Next .25 dividend end of this month.

  27. LOL Nabob – good summary.  

    ATW/Scott – I don't follow them but good balance sheet and they are dropping $3-400M to the bottom line this year on a $1.2Bn valuation so that's attractive, even if it drops in half.  The knock on ATW is they tend to serve a lot of ultra-deep drilling and that's the stuff that's just not profitable with oil under $55 and so they risk those rigs (most) going idle when their contracts run out this year and next and suddenly they won't be profitable anymore.

    Still, they are better than most in the sector (as is RIG) and unfairly slapped down with the overall group, so a good oversold candidate but remember your premise is oil holds $40 and gets back over $50 by March.  If not, I would find other trades.   

    That being said, you can sell March $17.50 puts for $3.20 and that nets you in for $14.30.  I'd start there and see how it goes.  If they go lower, you can buy the $12.50/17.50 bull call spread (now $2) for maybe $1.50 and roll the March $17.50 puts to the Sept $15 puts – and I know that because the Sept $20 puts are $3.05 and they are an even(ish) roll to the March $17.50 puts.  If that position doesn't appeal to you – why would you enter at $17.25?  

    I love it when the Banksters circle their wagons and upgrade everyone to prevent a crash.  Gosh, it sure would have been nice if they told people this last week – before they panic-sold out of all their positions, right?

    • JPMorgan has upgraded SanDisk (SNDK +4.6%) and Microchip (MCHP +7.7%) to Overweight, Baird has upgraded ON Semi (ON +7.7%) to Outperform, and Susquehanna has launched coverage on Silicon Motion (SIMO +4.2%) at Positive. All four names are outperforming on a day the Nasdaq is up 1.8%, and the Philadelphia Semi Index 3.2%.
    • JPMorgan thinks SanDisk has addressed the execution issues that have weighed on enterprise flash sales, and is poised to once more see positive enterprise and client/embedded growth. It forecasts the enterprise SSD market will see a ~20% CAGR over the next few years.
    • Regarding Microchip, JPMorgan believes shipments will soon match end-market consumption, after having come in below consumption the last 3 quarters. It also expects Microchip's microcontroller (MCU) product line to drive above-market growth.
    • Alcoa (AA +2.5%) is upgraded to Buy from Neutral with a $12 price target at BofA/Merrill, which cites benefits from the growing use of aluminum in auto and aerospace offerings, the company's solid balance sheet, upside to future Firth Rixson and RTI contributions, and potential multiple expansion given its greater downstream focus.
    • Separately, Alcoa says it will restart its Texarkana, Tex., casthouse, which has been idled since 2009, to meet growing demand for aluminum slab from the automotive industry; the company expects the project to ramp up production in H1 2016.
    • Southwestern Energy (SWN +1.1%) is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse, which says concerns about whether SWN's growth can help the company remain investment grade are now accounted for in the stock price given the 44% decline YTD.
    • The firm says SWN may be able to unlock some growth potential in its southern Appalachia properties, which could lead to additional capacity in 2017 and 2018.
    • SWN's continued underperformance is not warranted when compared with other companies in the energy E&P sector, Credit Suisse says.
    • While the potential for even higher capital requirements hang over the big banks, the ROE/valuation impact should be lower for Bank of America (BAC +1.8%) than for peers, says Nomura's Steven Chubak, upgrading to Buy from Neutral.
    • Last week's decision to exclude Advanced models from the CCAR calculations was a big win, says Chubak, as BAC's advanced risk-weighted-assets meaningfully exceed Standardized.
    • Previously: BofA approved to use own calculations for capital (Sept. 3)
    • Jefferies reiterates its Buy rating and $21 price target after meeting with CEO Brian Moynihan. noting the continued focus on managing core expenses.
    • "The earnings trajectory has improved and should continue to, if the macro delivers and rates provide the kicker," says analyst Ken Usdin. "We like BAC due to its path to improved profitability, demonstrated cost control, and cleaner capital return story."


    • Alongside an upgrade of Wells Fargo, Deutsche boosts Prudential Financial (NYSE:PRU) and U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) to Buy.
    • The trio is lower by between 10% and 13% since August 1.
    • Wells Fargo is ahead 2.4% premarket, but the other two names have no trades yet.
    • Previously: Wells Fargo higher after nabbing a pair of upgrades (Sept. 8)


    • Both Evercore ISI and Deutsche buy the dip in Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) with upgrades to Buy. Evercore's PT is $57 and Deutsche's is $60. WFC closed at $51.31 on Friday.
    • Also helping is a sizable rally in U.S. stock index futures, with the S&P 500 currently higher by 1.7%.
    • Shares +2.4% to $52.53 premarket.
    • See also: Deutshce find three rough-up financials to Buy (Sept. 8)
    • Brandywine Realty Trust (BDN +1.3%) is lower by 25.7% in 2015, including a 13.7% decline since the start of August.
    • Douglas Emmett (DEI +1.3%) has fared better, off just 3% this year after a 6% drop since August 1.
    • Both are upgraded to Buy from Hold at Evercore ISI.
    • SunTrust Robinson Humphrey upgrades Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) to a Buy rating after having the stock set at Neutral.
    • PG +1.82% premarket to $70.01 vs. a 52-week trading range of $65.02 to $93.89.
    • B. Riley upgrades Office Depot (NASDAQ:ODP) to a Buy rating from Neutral.
    • The investment firm sets a price target of $11 vs. the consensus PT of $9.36.
    • An ongoing probe by the FTC on Office Depot's merger with Staples remains in the background.

  28. Phil,

      I have -20 XCO JAN 2016 puts (net $2.55). I don't really see any way to salvage them. Do you?

  29. XCO/Kevin – If you believe they will survive, the correct thing to do is spend $1 more (at 0.50) to triple down so you net $1.20(ish) in 3x and then sell 2x the 2017 $1 calls for 0.40 and that drops your overall net to under $1 on 3x and THEN you cross your fingers.  Net/net you put in 0.20 more and, if you aren't willing to put that much into a stock – why don't you just get out with the loss you have?  You had all of last month to do that and you'll be lucky if you get another crack at 0.50 but if you do it now at 0.80 with 1x and sell 1x calls for 0.40, you're only spending net 0.40 and you drop your basis from $2.55 to $1.50(ish) and that's a 40% improvement right there.  

    Webinar time!  


    i can't get on webinar

  31. Close your browser and try again. (That's usually all it takes to clear it up.)

  32. Phil – Sorry. I'm a liitle confused about STP.  Friday you killed a lot of things that still seem to be in there.  For instance on Friday – you wrote for STP:

    "BTU – Cash!  

    GLD – Cash! 

    GREK – Cash!  

    FAS – Cash! 

    NFLX – I think they have a great chance of making $20K more but CASH!!! 

    SCO – Cash!"

    So …just wondering what your intent is….

  33. Hi phill, I have a 20/25 Jo bcs for dec…. Any thought of it coming back ? 

  34. BWLD – pressing new ATH. incomprehensible to me.

  35. scot,BWLD – football season

  36. BWLD/Jomp – thanks.. but still incomprehensible to me. :shock:

  37. Phil; I am long 2017 CLF $5 Calls that I bought for $1.50 (now 1.12).  With the stock up from a low of $2.28 would you suggest selling calls now?  I know you sold your $3 calls as you moved to cash.  I would prefer to keep the position but want to protect some of the recent gains.  Thx

  38. Looks like the late-day buying into the close has begun. Sometimes, it's just maddening as to what the reasons are.

  39. In the STP, in the Webinar, we decided to get more bearish by buying back:

    50 SDS Sept $24 calls, now 0.38

    50 SQQQ Sept $31 calls, now 0.25 

    Small price to pay (about $3,000) to lock in the $20,000+ we gained today on our two portfolios.  It leaves us with the naked SDS Sept $21 calls (now $1.60) and the SQQQ Sept $27 calls (0.65).  Should the indexes go higher, we'll roll the calls out to Jan to be longer-term hedges against even more gains in the LTP: 

  40. BHI / Phil  I have Jan17 57.5/70 BCS. Roll these down? 


  41. STP/Rexx – Not everything gave us a good enough price to close.  As I noted earlier in the day, it's not an emergency so unless we get good prices – no reason to take less than things were when we had last put up prices.  I will take more off as the sales go through, I was as surprised as you were that SDS is still in there when I saw it during the Webinar but oil went down all day and we never hit our exit price.  

    JO/Tri – I don't think so but I like the $20s ($1.50) enough to roll to March $18s at $2.90 and then, once the $25s expire, you can sell March $22s (now $1.40) to pay for it.

    BWLD/Scott – They do make good money but certainly too high at $200.  

    Earnings are 10/26ish and it's going to be hard to justify just under $4Bn valuation with less than $2Bn in sales and less than $100M in earnings.  2017 $150 puts are $10.50 and the $170 puts are $17 so very nice gain (60%) if BWLD falls $20 (10%) is worth getting 5 for $5,250 in the STP.  

    CLF/Options – You can sell the $8s fro 0.65 and that drops your net to 0.85 but you're still out of the money, so not an adjustment I'd make.  I'd rather spend $1.16 to roll to the $2 calls ($2.28) and sell the $5 calls to some other sucker for $1.12 and then your net is just $1.54 but now it's on a $3 spread that's $2.21 in the money.   If you want to be more bullish than that, you can sell $3 puts for $1.40 and then your net is 0.14 on the $3 spread and, if selling the $3 puts makes you nervous – then you understand why I prefer the more conservative position!  

    Reasons/Yo – Gotta pretty things up so they can get more retailers to come and hold the bags.  Simple enough reason…

    BHI/Justav – Sure, the $57.50s are $5.70 and the $45s are $14 so + $8.50(ish) to roll down $12.50 and that can be offset by rolling the $70s ($2.25) to the $55s ($7.50) and now you're in a MUCH safer $10 spread for +net $3.25.  If you want to get rid of the $3.25, you can sell the $40 puts for $2.80.

    As noted in the Webinar – volume is very low so all this is BS.  

  42. BHI/Phil


  43. Phil – SDS/SQQQ – Any new entries you would recommend since the volume is low today and expect more on the downside?

  44. You're welcome Justav. 

    SDS, SQQQ/Bulls – Well we just got more aggressive in the STP but, as a new trade, I'd do Friday's SDS/AAPL combo.  

    Here's that 2.5% line on /NQ at 4,300 

  45. CVX – interesting: "Of the large-cap energy companies, Chevron is the most over-leveraged, said Gheit. In 2013 and 2014, the company's spending was approximately $40 billion and $37 billion respectively, according to its annual reports, and this year's budget is $35 billion. That's bigger than Irving, Texas-based Exxon Mobil Corp.'s (NYSE: XOM) revised budget of $34 billion, even though Chevron is half Exxon's size, said Gheit."

  46. Gold – well knock me over with a feather, Hedgeye getting back into gold:

  47. Phil.  Can you direct me to any educational materials you have posted about the 5% Rule?

  48. TZA reverse split extended to 10/1/15

    "Direxion will execute reverse splits of the issued and outstanding shares of the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 3X Shares (NUGT) , Direxion Daily Natural Gas Related Bull 3X Shares (GASL), Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 3X Shares (JNUG), Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 3X Shares (JDST), Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ) and the Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (TZA), effective at the open of the market on October 1, 2015. "

  49. We need to break that lower highs pattern to start turning bullish! We are making higher lows in a triangle thingy pattern though… Breakout one way or the other!

  50. YHOO very interesting below $30.  Just had to summarize for a reporter and here's what I said:

    The IRS did not reject a request  for the spin-off.    What the IRS did (or did not do) is they refused to issue a ruling that would have confirmed that the planned spin off would be a tax free event.  By refusing to give an opinion, the IRS has introduced a level of uncertainty that Yahoo cannot live with and they are then forced to cancel the spin-off, for fear that, if they did go through with it, all the shareholders getting new Alibaba shares would have to pay tax on them as if they were cash. 

    What Yahoo can still probably do is create a holding company for it's Alibaba stake (about $23Bn) and that should have no tax consequences, though the function of that holding company would be difficult to understand. 

    Yahoo has been moving in lock-step with BABA since BABA went public.  At the time it was worth $40Bn and is now down about 40% and YHOO's  stock value has dropped to $29Bn, $23.25Bn of which is 382M $61 shares of BABA and the company is sitting on over $6Bn in cash from previous sales of BABA stock (taxes already paid).  That gives YHOO an enterprise value of NEGATIVE $800Bn but (and it's a big but) if they incur taxes while liquidating the BABA shares, there goes $8.2Bn (35%) up in smoke and shareholder lawsuits would fly, and everyone involved in the mishandling of this transaction would have their careers ruined. 

    So they must back off this transaction without a definitive ruling from the IRS but, if they do manage to put something together that creates a tax-free structure, the company does drop about $300M to the bottom line and even a conservative 10x value on that puts them $3-4Bn (10%) undervalued and, if BABA recovers some of the 50% it's lost from it's highs – well, that's another 1% per BABA $1 that Yahoo gains in value on those shares. 

    The stakes are very, very high on this one and no one is going to rush to make a move until they are SURE it won't blow up in their faces.  Shareholders will be very unhappy and dump the stock – but we consider it a great opportunity to take a cheap position below $30.

    - Phil

    So very undervalued with wriggle room makes this a no-brainer to add to our portfolio tomorrow (someone remind me).  

  51. Hillary Clinton Apologizes for Email Setup as Secretary of State

    After months of deflecting criticism about personal email account, presidential candidate admits mistake

    See, all better now. So the Clintonista acolytes can put their heads back in the sand and wait for the next big fib; and the next one ; and the next one……………………………

    Go, Bernie Go!!

  52. Really Pstas?  Does that justify the 3-year, $20M Bengazi investigation – you got Hillary to say she's sorry she used a personal Email account while Secretary of State – even though there was no actual evidence of any wrongdoing?  See, you enable these idiots.  They have wasted 3 YEARS on a baseless witch hunt and, when that failed, to save themselves from total embarrassment, they began turning up every little rock they could find until they found this little gem and then they polished the crap out of it and told you it was the Hope Diamond – and you fell for it.  Not only fell for it but you proudly beat your chest and run victory laps as if your party has done you proud.  

    I guess, on the whole, Joe Welch has taught you people nothing – 60 years later and still, "Have you no decency, sir?  At long last, have you no sense of decency?"   Does no one in your party have any sense of decency at all and, more to the point – doesn't this in any way bother you?  

    That was 1954 and America finally saw these jackasses for what they were and the GOP lost the House that November (221 down to 203 seats) and lost the Senate (48 down to 47 seats) and by 1958 there were 64 Democratic Senators and just 34 Republicans and 283 Democratic Congresspeople and just 153 Republicans and the GOP was not allowed to take control of the Senate again until 1980 – THAT is how long it took the people to forget what kind of abusive political sycophants had taken over the GOP.  

    A House majority didn't come back until 1994 – 40 years in the desert for Conservative for behaving exactly the way you are foaming at the mouth over now.  So have at it, my friend – I welcome your small victories in exchange for a banishment that insures my grandchildren will ask "what's a Republican?"  

    You are living in a very rare Republican bubble – the same kind they enjoyed briefly after Roosevelt died and the country wanted to "balance" Truman's power.  Pretty much as soon as they had any power, the GOP went bat-shit crazy and alienated everyone who wasn't white and rich and the rest of the voters remembered who they really were for 4 whole decades after that.  

    Those who forget the past….


  53. Phil as smart as you are there is no difference in Dem or Rep…They are all corporate shills. If you think there is a difference between a Bush or a Clinton I respectively differ. I used to be a Rep/then Con I may be a libertarian.. And your correct Sanders has no shot because he's not a corporate whore

  54. And if we are left with Trump or Clinton God help us all…Ill go back to reading posts because the people that make decisions in this country nauseate me.

  55. Phil, as Ward Cleaver said, I think you were a little hard on the Beaver.  I think you were a little hard on Pstas.

    ~~On Monday, the Clinton campaign disagreed with the conclusion of the intelligence review and noted that agencies within the government often have different views of what should be considered classified.

    Phil – With all due respect, I think that you are ignoring the facts ?  Hillary received "TOP SECRET" emails on her personal server.  Even a lowly government employee knows that this is a serious breach of security.  These are not "CONFIDENTIAL" rated documents or even "SECRET" documents.  These are "TOP SECRET" documents upon which there is no question that they are classified.  And from the Secretary of State !

    She's gone from "I did nothing wrong", to Mea Culpa – "I'm Sorry".

    Not sure even the Clinton Teflon Machine can cover up this one.

    I agree that the Republicans have a lot of skeletons and misdeeds as well.  But let's call a spade, a spade.

    And she needed this personal email server because ?

  56. tophytooth / indiscernible differences? - 


    Libertarians almost always see the world as a battlefield between freedom and tyranny, and while they tend to be agreeable to the limitations on taxes and regulations they nonetheless see both Republicans and Democrats as servants to the state. In that way, perverse as a worldview as it may be, yes Democrats and Republicans may have no differences.

    Peering one's head out of the cave any more and the differences abound. Climate change, war-mongering, immigration, taxation – there's virtually no end to the differences.

    Is Bernie unable to make it in the election? Well, just because Ron Paul's Neo-Confederate, property-absolutist run for the White House – with its ringing endorsements from confirmed members of the Klu Klux Klan - was a complete flop doesn't mean Sanders' campaign will be.


    Yo-mamma, I agree on Ron Paul.  But check out the bio on another doctor, Ben Carson.  And if you think he's not qualified, compare his qualifications to our current Prez.

  58. Albo / Ben Carson -


    I don't see why someone who is a first-rate neurosurgeon is specifically more qualified than President Obama to govern. In what respect isn't President Obama as qualified as Carson, which seems to be what you are alluding to? Is he more qualified than President Obama in regard to, say, his glaring lack of governance experience? Given the list of gaffs that Carson has let loose – he said during the Republican Debate on Fox News that he was a strong supporter of a tithe-based tax system - I'm more ready to laugh at Carson than to take him seriously.

    A tithe-based tax system? I guess there's going to be some changes to the IRS. Apparently, these guys going to be showing up to collect the revenue.

  59. Yo-mamma.  Very clever, I must admit.  But compare the accomplishments of the two.  Enough said.

  60. And you don't really take his tithing remarks literally do you ?

  61. Albo,

    A = Doctor of Near-Peerless Stature in Their Field

    B = Physical Scientist/Engineer of Near-Peerless Stature in Their Field

    C = Economist of Near-Peerless Stature in Their Field

    D = Journalist of Near-Peerless Stature in their Field

    E = Grassroots Organizer of Near-Peerless Status in Their Field

    F = Lawyer of Near Peerless Stature in Their Field


    Is A > B?, How about B>C? Hmmm…is C>D or A > E & F? B >/= D….uhhh, ummm…I'm unable to make sense of these comparisons as to just whose record and list of accomplishments would be "better" or "worse" on a relative scale. The problem for me is that the accomplishments of such highly-regarded individuals, who work in separate and distinct fields, are themselves qualitatively different from each other and cannot properly be evaluated for: 1) their absolute or relative value in terms of their contribution to the public good,  or 2) their ability to determine the worthiness of an individual for the holding of elected office.

    Further, even if Carson was an amazing surgeon and we could say his accomplishments were by some accepted measure of comparison equal to or greater than those racked up by President Obama - even though we can't make any kind of claim like that with any kind of certainty -.could we really be sure that his brilliance in that area wasn't confined to his specialty? What if someone's "special set of skills" with which they work wonders in a specific domain is found to be non-transferable to other domains? I mean, lots of people who'v been brilliant workers have been terrible managers / administrators, and sometimes intelligence is itself pedantic and compartmentalized.

  62. I think this could be big for twitter but how they monetize it is another question.

  63. We are so divided by politics. The worst part is it's so closely even. I wish we could all just be Americans for a change and work together for the common good. Too many people make their living off the conflict.

  64. He who has the gold makes the rules. Same as it ever was.

    The Federal Reserve owns us, because congress abdicated it's responsibility for the money supply to them. Or more specifically, the owners of the Fed, because it is neither federal or has any reserves. Who owns the Fed? Nobody ever talks about that.

    The senators are supposed to be appointed by the sates, giving them some measure of control over the way the federal government acts. That got changed too. We have a wonderful constitution, I wish we would follow it. Do you know what it says about money? Only gold and silver… what have we done to our country?

  65. HIllary Clinton is a congenital liar. The record is clear and no amount of bluster and bs changes that. Apparently a lot of folks are not troubled by that but I am. To each his own but please, spare me the high horse drama.

    Again, I say what a shame the Dems cannot do better. 

  66. In case you missed it, this is a good note about what can be found in 10-k filings:

  67. Another big day up in China and Japan and our futures looking rosy today as well. Phil did the Chinese announce a new stimulus package? I know we went more defensive so you are not thinking this is real, but is this just on the expectation of stimulus or has there been something done in the last day?

  68. Good morning!

    China cut taxes on dividends to ZERO for shareholders who hold the stock for more than a year.  That is huge.  They are cutting the taxes in half if you hold it for just over a month.  They are also talking about cutting the breakers in half – stopping stocks that make a 5% move, rather than 10%.  

    That punched Shanghai up 2.3% but Hang Seng liked it even more, jumping 4.1% and only stopped by the bell on the way up.  And check out Japan!  It's kind of misleading as Nikkei already recovered from yesterday's dip and today's gains are added to that but they closed at yesterday's low and up 7% since then.  

    Europe is up around 2% and our Futures are up 1%.

    Global Stocks Jump on Stimulus Hopes

    Global stocks rise, led by a 7.7% rise in Japan’s Nikkei, following signs that China would do more to stimulate its slowing economy.

    Things look stupidly toppy at 16,650, 1,985, 4,350 and 1,170 but who knows at this point?

  69. Toppy/ I guess we have been given some more lemons, and you know what that means!

  70. Yo-momma.  Good morning.  You made some excellent points.  And BTW, it was June who said that Ward was being too hard on the Beaver.  8-)

  71. Liquidmetal Technologies Completes Installation of an Additional Engel Machine for Its Manufacturing Center of Excellence

    Tue September 8, 2015 7:00 AM|Business Wire  | About: LQMT




    RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Liquidmetal® Technologies, Inc. (OTCQB: LQMT), the worlds leading developer of amorphous alloys and composites, has completed the installation of its second injection molding machine recently delivered by its certified partner, Engel. The fully automated, state-of-the-art machine will enhance the existing Manufacturing Center of Excellence operations, reflecting Liquidmetal Technologies commitment to manufacturing and advancing the capabilities of its technology.

    Paul Hauck, Vice President of World-Wide Sales and Marketing, said: The installation of the additional machine comes at a time when market interest in the technology has reached significant levels. The additional capacity will allow the Company to serve new customer applications and will reduce supply risk by providing additional redundancy in capacity.

  72. I sold most of my TZA yesterday alon with some other positions but still more to go . I am terrible at closing stuff, always getting it wrong it seems. Closed the TZA short stuff in the morning pop waiting for the reverse to close the longs so I got bad prices both ways. Just about the same on the others also. I wish I could kidnap Phil to close my stuff for me. On the bright side it did free up margin and caught a nice short this am in /CL from 45.30 to 45.19

  73. No difference/Tophy – Well, sorry but as a Jew whose family was hauled off to Concentration Camps in the 40s because they thought politics weren't important enough to worry about, I do pay attention to the "subtle" differences between the parties.  I agree that it's almost a "lesser of two evils" kind of choice but your attitude is exactly why "they" win.  If the only election you ever vote in is the Presidential one, then you get exactly the crap you deserve – the chance to make an actual difference is in the local elections, where you can back good people (like Obama) who wouldn't have a shot nationally without coming off a groundswell base.  The people you elect locally shape the party of the future – it's far too late to complain once you are presented with Presidential choices – where do you think they come from?  

    All politics in this country has been corrupted by Corporations and if you sit back and accept it, then your grandchildren will be owned by them (unless they are lucky enough to be one of the very few owners).  You can try to change things by claiming to be a Libertarian and hoping they will all go away or you can support the party you think is most likely willing AND ABLE to take them on.  In my humble opinion, that's not the Republicans.  

    As Barry Ritholtz says:

    I am not a Democrat, because I have no idea what their economic policies are; And I am not a Republican, because I know precisely what their economic policies are.

    In my opinion, Republican economic policies are not just wrong, they are destructive to our economy and our society.  I have mounds of data on the subject that I've shared from time to time and it's certainly been enough to convince me – even if 8 years of Bush didn't convince you.  Socially, as I've noted, the Democrats have an extremist at the fringe of the party pushing the far-left side of their agenda and his name is Bernie Sanders and I think he's a good an honorable man I'd be proud to have lead my country.  The Republicans have an extremist at the fringe of the party pushing the far-right side of their agenda and his name is Donald Trump.  If you can be proud of him and all he represents – by all means vote.  But please don't pretend he doesn't represent the party – he simply doesn't sugar-coat the agenda.  

    Clinton is a compromise I can live with, Bush III is not and neither are the other 15 very scary people.  Also, the thought of another Conservative being added to the Supreme Court and writing the laws of this land is completely unconscionable to me.  That, by itself, would have me voting Democrat.  

    Beaver/Albo – No, I'm proportionately responding to the anti-Clinton vitriol that is spewed on my site.  Now I have to correct you as well but I understand your Conservative brain needs to see everything as either black or white and has little room for nuance and the Email issue is, unfortunately, full of nuance.  While there MAY have been "Top Secret" information in the 2 (out of 100,000) Emails Hillary received, they were not MARKED top secret and therefore were not mishandled at all.  There was no intent by Hillary to receive Top Secret information and without intent in this case, there is no crime.  

    Not only that but the information in question WAS NOT considered classified at the time of the Emails and was only designated as classified after the fact and, again, NOT MARKED AS CLASSIFIED EVER!  

    She is sorry that her decision to maintain a private Email account while Sec of State has opened the door to this ridiculous witch hunt and helped to justify the despicable actions of the GOP in the Bengazi investigation – that's what she's apologizing for, to us Democrats, for making the election less than the slam-dunk it should have been - she's not apologizing you, the GOP, or any of her accusers because she still did nothing wrong but the merest appearance of something possibly being wrong has opened the door to this relentless side-show that is distracting us from the real issues facing this nation.  

    These are the two simple facts of the case:

    For there to have been a crime, Clinton would have to have KNOWN she was keeping government secrets at "an unauthorized location"  - that is not an issue

    Clinton has repeatedly said that she did not knowingly send or receive emails that were marked classified, and that her use of a personal email server — while not "the best choice" — was not illegal or unauthorized.  That is the plain truth of the matter. 

    Also, for there to be a crime, Clinton would have had to have "leaked" classified information to another party.  Not only didn't that happen but the only reason anyone is reading these Emails is because of a court order under the GOP investigation who are KNOWINGLY ATTEMPTING TO LEAK classified information they hope to find in Clinton's emails.  

    Think how amazing it is that, with 100,000 Emails to comb through, they can't find any classified information in the Secretary of State's private Email account – that's a woman who knows how to be careful!  cool

    And – Ben Carson??  Wow, you Conservatives must be REALLY desperate for a candidate:

    1. “You know Obamacare is really I think the worst thing that has happened in this nation since slavery. And it is in a way, it is slavery in a way, because it is making all of us subservient to the government, and it was never about health care.  It was about control.” – 2013 at the Values Voter Summit

    2. “Well, my thoughts are that marriage is between a man and a woman. It’s a well-established, fundamental pillar of society and no group, be they gays, be they NAMBLA, be they people who believe in bestiality. It doesn’t matter what they are. They don’t get to change the definition.” – 2013 on Fox News’ Hannity

    3. “There comes a time when people with values simply have to stand up. Think about Nazi Germany. Most of those people did not believe in what Hitler was doing. But did they speak up? Did they stand up for what they believe in? They did not, and you saw what happened.” - Carson comparing Democrats and those who voted for President Obama to Nazis.

    That one is funny because it's a good example – just aimed the wrong way!  

    4. “Because 9/11 is an isolated incident. Things that are isolated issues as opposed to things that fundamentally change the United Sates of America and shift power from the people to the government. That is a huge shift. You have to take a long-term look at something that fundamentally changes the power structure of America.” - Carson claiming that “Obamacare” is worse than 9/11

    5. Carson told CNN host Chris Cuomo that prisoners “prove” that homosexuality is a choice, because “a lot of people who go into prison, go into prison straight, and when they come out, they’re gay.”

    6. Carson held that it’s “condescending,” to suggest that low-income Americans can’t pay their “fair share” of taxes, because “poor people have pride, too” and “don’t want to be just taken care of.” When Wallace pointed out that billionaires would make out like “bandits” under his tax scheme, Carson couldn’t explain how his plan wouldn’t increase taxes on the poor, the working class, and middle class.

    7. During an appearance on “The Andy Parks Show,” Carson suggested that protests against police violence help groups like ISIS and Al Qaeda. Carson has also said that the “women’s lib” movement created the “me generation” that led to police shootings, “because young African-American men like Michael Brown” are getting killed by the police because they “never really learn how to relate to authority in the proper way.”

    8. In an interview with WorldNet Daily publisher Joseph Farrah, Carson tied together Benghazi, marijuana use, and Pharrell Williams’ “Happy” to suggest that communists in government are out to destroy the U.S. economy. And the main “communist,” of course, is the president.

    9.  While being profiled by GQ magazine, Carson called President Barack Obama a “psychopath,”, and later defended doing so in an interview with CNBC host John Harwood.

    Yep, another candidate you should be proud to call your own.  

    First rate/Yo – I know a first-rate pizza guy in my town who would make a great President!  He gets that crust just perfect every time and I know for a fact he supports a flat sales tax on all deliveries.  Seems like he's qualified to me… cheeky

    Periscope/Eddie – Doesn't seem all that technically innovative, just a first.

    Divided/Mkucstars – That's why I won't go into politics unless I am made Dictator.  You  just can't work with these people and the only way to fix Washington is to build a throne of skulls made of all the politicians and lobbyists unlucky enough to be in town when I take over…  

    Better/Pstas – Sanders is better.  I'm no huge Hillary fan but she has the best chance of winning so I support her because the alternative is yet another chance for the GOP to unleash Hell on Earth and America is just not recovered enough from the last round of Conservative policies to take another punch to the gut like that.  

    YELP/Scott – Very true statement. 

    Death crosses/Scott – Whenever you look at technical data and nothing else, you get a very distorted view of things.  What happened in July of 2010?  Stimulus which threw off the numbers and that 10% return leading to a 31% return against 26 data-points (and I'm sure others had outside issues as well aside from the obvious Aug 2011).  Now, if you wanted to write an article that says a death cross is so severe that it tends to provoke Government action which subsequently boosts market returns – sure, that makes sense.  

    Anyway, it's a short-term signal and nobody said it wasn't but, in the short-term, it's pretty reliable – especially when you short INTO the cross.

    China/Craigs – yes, see above. 

    LQMT/Advill – Thanks, good to know.  That's my daughter's first stock (10,000 shares for $1,300 for her 13th birthday – she chose that over a gift).  

    TZA/Jomp – You have to ask for a good price and be patient.  Great job taking advantage of the situation! 

    Oops, time to work!