Courtesy of Mish.
The past few days have seen significant swings in the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast.
We are right back to the initial forecast in August.
What Happened?
- On September 28 following the Personal Income and Outlays Report, the forecast rose 0.4 percentage points to 1.8%.
- On September 29, following the Census Bureau Advance Trade Report the forecast fell 0.7 percentage points to 1.1%.
- On October 1, following the Manufacturing ISM report, the forecast fell another 0.2 percentage points to 0.9%.
ISM Discussion
See my discussion ISM Flirts with Contraction, Export Orders and Backlogs Contract for 4th Month.
Advance Trade Numbers
Let’s investigate the Census Report Numbers to see what’s behind the 0.7 percentage point plunge on September 29.
The following table I put together will help visualize what happened. Numbers are in millions of dollars. Pay attention to the seasonally adjusted numbers.
| Month | Seasonally Adjusted Balance of Goods | Unadjusted Balance of Goods |
|---|---|---|
| January | -59,815 | -57,405 |
| February | -55,218 | -43,328 |
| March | -70,527 | -64,390 |
| April | -60,422 | -61,423 |
| May | -59,747 | -57,046 |
| June | -62,256 | -64,838 |
| July | -59,123 | -68,360 |
| August | -67,187 | -68,025 |
Notes:
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