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Thursday, February 26, 2026

Three Month Treasury Yields Turn Negative; Long End Flattening; Economy Strengthening or Recession Warning?

Courtesy of Mish.

Curve Watcher's Anonymous points out 3-month treasury yields dipped briefly negative on several days recently.

Yield on the 3-month bond was negative again today. Here is a table I put together with Treasury Yield Quotes from Bloomberg.

One could also use US Department of Treasury Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates to produce an end-of-day view as opposed to the intraday snapshop above and chart below.

Yield Curve vs. Month Ago and Year Ago

click on chart for sharper image

Long End Flattening

The time line is not to scale, but the above chart still tells the correct story. In particular, note a negative rate at the front end and the flattening at the long end of the curve vs. a month ago and a year ago.

Economy Strengthening?

Three month treasuries should not be negative in a rate hike environment….


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