Here's what's happening today…
Financial Markets and Economy
Payroll Disaster: Establishment Survey +142K Jobs, Employment -236K; Labor Force -350K; 59K Downward Revisions (Mish Shedlock)
This report was a veritable disaster. Although the establishment survey sported 142,000 jobs it was much weaker than expected. Downward revisions for the last two months totaled 59,000.
The labor force fell by 350,000 driving the participation rate to a 40-year low. Government jobs rose 24,000 so private payrolls accounted for a mere 118,000 jobs. Weekly hours ticked down by 0.1 hours.
(Picture via Pixabay)
Factory Orders Hit the Skids, Last Month Revised Lower, Shipments Down 4th Time in 5 Months (Mish Shedlock)
On top of today's disastrous jobs report, comes still more weakness in the factory sector.
The US Census Bureau report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders shows:
- New orders for manufactured goods in August decreased $8.2 billion or 1.7 percent to $473.0 billion.
- Shipments, down four of the last five months, decreased $3.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $480.1 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent July decrease.
- Unfilled orders, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $2.4 billion or 0.2 percent to $1,195.0 billion….
Glencore's Chaotic Week of Stock Volatility Set to End in Calm (Bloomberg)
Glencore Plc shares took a breather after whipsaw swings this week that sent volatility to the highest on record.
Corporations are committing the ‘three sins’ of leverage, analyst says (Market Watch)
Corporate credit quality is on the way down, as companies have committed the “three sins” of leverage, an analyst says.
Two Great October Opportunities For Learning (Trader Feed)
There is a great deal to be said for breadth of learning and depth of learning. Both enable us to see interrelationships that aren't readily apparent–and it's in those interrelationships that "edges" are to be found in financial markets.
Soda Industry Struggles as Consumer Tastes Change (NY Times)
Five years ago, Mayor Michael A. Nutter proposed a tax on soda in Philadelphia, and the industry rose up to beat it back.
Soda lobbyists made campaign contributions to local politicians and staged rallies, with help from allies like the Teamsters union and local bottling companies. To burnish its image, the industry donated $10 million to the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia.
Futures up ahead of September jobs data (Business Insider)
U.S. stock index futures rose on Friday as investors await the crucial September jobs report that could help strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates before the end of the year.
Charting the Markets: Investors Await the U.S. Jobs Report (Bloomberg)
Gold drops, China shares surge and Portuguese bonds fall as voters head to the polls.
Those who sold in May are looking to return to stock market (Market Watch)
Followers of the Halloween Indicator are sitting pretty, having gone to cash on May Day and therefore sidestepped a 10% decline in the stock market. Mark Hulbert discusses what will trigger their re-entry, and when.
European markets are all up at the open (Business Insider)
Credit Suisse is saying the markets are in a panic, global manufacturing activity is going nowhere and Glencore and Volkswagen are still dealing with real threats to their business, but you wouldn't know it to look at the market open on Friday morning.
U.S. Proposes Provision on Tobacco in Trade Pact (NY Times)
The United States proposed this week to bar tobacco companies from using special trade tribunals to sue or threaten countries that passed antismoking laws, hoping to remove one roadblock to what would be the largest regional trade agreement in history.
World's Biggest Wealth Fund Awaits Verdict on Textile Industry (Bloomberg)
The ethics council that guides Norway’s $820 billion sovereign wealth fund is zeroing in on the textile industry for breaching its standards in a development that may lead to some companies being excluded from the fund’s portfolio.
Be ready as the downward pull on stocks is about to break (Market Watch)
Time for that fourth-quarter comeback? Don’t hold your breath. It’ll take a Buffalo-Bills-circa-1993 effort to turn this thing around for the year. There’s not a whole lot suggesting it’s about to happen.
While the damage — in the stock market, anyway — was minimal, the start of the back stretch didn’t exactly inspire confidence that the next three months will be any better than the prior three.
Schaeffler pushes back stock market float (Business Insider)
German ball bearings and car parts maker Schaeffler said it was sticking with plans for an initial public offering (IPO) but would not announce a price range until Monday, pushing back the stock market flotation.
Once-Bitten German Bond Traders Keep Yields in a Narrow Range (Bloomberg)
As China, Glencore Plc and the Federal Reserve upset everything from stocks to commodities, investors are keeping German bond yields relatively stable.
Dollar steady as investors await big U.S. economic report (Market Watch)
The dollar was almost flat against the yen and the euro in quiet Asian trade Friday, with many investors sitting on the sidelines ahead of the closely-watched U.S. jobs report later in the day, a key to shaping investors’ views on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
The greenback USDJPY, +0.30% was at ¥119.92, compared with ¥119.91 late Thursday in New York.
Silver coin demand is absolutely through the roof” (Zero Hedge)
If the continuing depression in precious metal prices has a silver lining, it is the enormous surge in demand world-wide for silver. With most mints & brokers experiencing higher than expected demand for silver coins, many are having to set weekly sales quotas after record coin sales.
Oil rises as Syria fighting intensifies; US worries over hurricane fade (Business Insider)
Crude prices rose on Friday as fighting in Syria intensified, but remained on course to end the week largely unchanged as a hurricane was seen as less likely to affect U.S. oil facilities.
Hurricane Joaquin, which on Thursday had prompted fears of storm damage to U.S. East Coast oil installations, was downgraded and is now seen as less likely to pose a major threat, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
Coal Price Decline to Impact Aussie Investment, Frydenberg Says (Bloomberg)
Australia, the world’s second-largest coal exporter, expects foreign investment in the industry to decline as a slump in Chinese demand continues to put pressure on prices for the fuel, Resources and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg said.
Oil rebounds ahead of payrolls, rig data (Market Watch)
Crude-oil futures rebounded in Asian trade Friday, erasing overnight losses as traders positioned themselves ahead of a U.S. jobs report and rig-count data due later in the trading day.
Several market participants are increasingly factoring in rangebound oil price movement for the rest of this year. Societe Generale, for instance, expects U.S. oil prices to trade in the $40-$50 a barrel range over coming months, as the U.S. oil sector adjusts to a low price environment.
Ferrari is trying a massive brand repositioning right before its IPO (Business Insider)
You probably think of Ferrari as a maker of cars. But Ferrari seems to be making the case that it is more of a luxury brand like Tiffany or Patek Phillipe, in documents filed with the SEC on the eve of its IPO.
The word "luxury" appears in its amended IPO filing 151 times.
Politics
Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio will hurt women’s economic future (Market Watch)
Around this time in a presidential campaign, you’ll start to hear the different policy plans a candidate has crafted for their hopeful ascent to the White House. Candidates will try to define themselves as uniquely suited to handle the challenges our country faces, and to improve our everyday lives.
Portuguese Head to First Election After Bailout Exit: Guide (Bloomberg)
Portuguese voters go to the polls on Sunday in the first general election since 2011, choosing who will run the country for the first time since exiting an international bailout last year.
Technology
Student's high-tech smart glove translates sign language into text and speech (Phys)
A 'smart glove' that translates sign language from hand gestures to visual text on a screen and audible dialogue has been developed by a Goldsmiths, University of London student. She's now working on an app to enable real-time translation of the text into other languages.
Health and Life Sciences
For millennials, keeping weight off is harder (CNN)
It's a never-ending battle: You diet and exercise, but can't shed the pounds. You can at least take comfort in a new study that suggests many other factors, including stress and pollution, could be conspiring to make weight loss harder today than a few decades ago.
Study supports cancer link with height (BBC)
A Swedish study of five million people appears to support the theory that height and cancer risk are linked.
The study found that taller people had a slightly higher risk of breast cancer and skin cancer, among other cancers.
Life on the Home Planet
Hurricane Joaquin Tracking Back Out To Sea (Popular Science)
The latest satellite imagery of Hurricane Joaquin and associated tropical weather in the Atlantic was captured the morning of October 2, 2015, by the NASA network of three Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES).
For the past several days, people along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard have been nervously tracking the path of Hurricane Joaquin. But the latest data gathered by the network of sensors, satellites, and "Hurricane Hunter" planes and published online this morning by the U.S. National Hurricane Center indicate that the storm is likely to miss the populated coastal region by several hundred miles East, although it continues to batter the Bahamas.
Drought woes in California town highlight thirsty poultry industry (Business Insider)
Residents of Livingston, California have sharply reduced their water usage during the state’s severe drought, now in its fourth year. But this summer, when state officials ranked how water suppliers had done meeting mandated conservation goals, the blue-collar town of 13,800 came in dead last.
