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Saturday, February 28, 2026

Sweden’s Migration Projection Doubles in Three Months (And It Won’t Stop There); No Cash, Just Vouchers (Hah!)

Courtesy of Mish.

Sweden is feeling migration strain. In the last three months, Sweden’s Migrant Projection Doubled.

This was easily foreseeable by bloggers like me, Dave Stockman, Acting Man, Zero Hedge etc. Yet, somehow government leaders failed to see this coming.

Sweden will receive as many as 190,000 refugees this year, according to official estimates, more than double the projected number envisaged just three months ago, placing unprecedented strains on the country’s immigration services as politicians struggle to agree a way forward.

It’s as if we have a land border with Turkey,” said Anders Danielsson, head of the Migration Board, as he announced the figures on Thursday.

“The current refugee situation is unprecedented in modern times, and the housing situation is critical.”

At the end of July, the Migration Board said the rate of new arrivals was falling and it expected a total of just 74,000 in 2015. The previous peak number of asylum seekers in Sweden was in 1992, when 84,000 fled the Balkan wars.

The numbers are “not sustainable for Sweden”, said migration minister Morgan Johansson, adding that EU countries must share asylum seekers.

With a total population of under 10m, Sweden is receiving by far the highest number of refugees in Europe as a proportion of its population, equivalent to about 6m people flooding into the US, and third only to Germany and Hungary in absolute terms.

Officials said they expected the country to be short of 25,000 to 40,000 beds by the end of the year. This week the Migration Board opened a temporary camp of 350 heated tents to house refugees, as temperatures dropped towards freezing.

Asked how many might be illegally in the country, Mr Danielsson said: “We have no idea, we have no border.”

The reliability of our forecasts is low at present,” said Merjem Maslo for the Migration Board. “When the Syrian conflict started we could pretty well determine how many asylum seekers who would find their way here, but our forecast can no longer be based on sound judgment.”

Migration Math

Inquiring minds may be interested in the math.

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