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Two Thousand Dollar Thursday – Futures Profits While We Wait

Who says cash can't be fun?  

Yesterday, in the morning post, I noted the weak volume rally was a good shorting opportunity in the Futures – specifically the Russell (/TF) at 1,190 (pictured here, now 1,170 for a $2,000 gain!) and the Nikkei (/NKD) at 19,800 (now 19,635).  The Russell was good for a very quick $1,000 per contract gain and has hit $2,000 as of this morning (where we're done for now, expecting a bounce here) while the Nikkei took longer to grind out it's $1,000 win at 19,600 before bouncing back.  

A lot of traders have an irrational fear of trading the Futures (and options, for that matter) and it's one of the things we work on in our Weekly Webinars (replay available here).  The cost of initiating a Russell Futures Contract is $5,940 in margin (may vary by broker) and you simply bet long if you think the Russell will go higher or short if you think it will go lower and then you make (or lose) $100 for each point the Russell moves.  

The very great thing about the Futures is that you can play them in off hours, like yesterday morning – when we saw the Futures market rising for bad reasons ahead of what we thought would be a weak open based on the data that was coming in.  My comment at the time was:

The volume on yesterday's move up was a joke and this morning we're being pushed even higher in the Futures, back to 1,190 on the Russell (/TF) and 19.800 on the Nikkei (/NKD) along with 2,085 on the S&P (/ES), 17,800 on the Dow (/YM) and 4,660 on the Nasdaq (/NQ).  I listed the Russell and Nikkei first as they are going to be our key shorts – providing the others stay below their lines.

That's the real key to playing the Futures (and it's not very different with stocks or options) – pick a strong support or resistance line where several factors line up that lead you to take a stand and then, once you make your bet – get out quickly if things don't go the way you plan.  By limiting your losses, you live to play another day and, as you can see – the payoff from a single winner can make up for quite a few losses.  

This morning, the index Futures are more in between, so we're not making any bets but now a long play on Oil (/CL) is possible as it tests the $42 line ahead of what is widely expected to be a very poor inventory report.  I think oil will be lower next week but this morning, the $42 line has been good support in the past and we have an EIA Inventory Report at 11 am, into which we expect a small rally. 

So the play would be going long /CL (margin is $5,060 per contract, pays $10 per penny) at the $42 line with a stop at $41.95 ($50 loss) as our premise is simply that $42 is bouncy.  A move back to just $42.25 would pay us $250 per contract and $500 at $42.50.  The trick is to take the money and run ahead of the inventories – as it's not worth the risk – though we may change our mind during our Live Member Chat Session, depending on how things go between now and 11 or, if $42.25 seems to be holding (I doubt it) we may use that line instead.  

See, now you know how to play the Futures.  The margin is only held on your account as long as the contract is open (again, may vary by broker) and immediately releases when you "go flat" (end the trade with no more contracts).  In general, we use the Futures for strictly day-trading but it's nice to have them available if something market-moving happens after hours, overnight or pre-market and we want to shift the balance of our overall portfolio while the market is closed.  

Just imagine the advantage you have when you are able to trade almost 24 hours a day versus someone who has to wait until the market opens to act on information they got since the last close.  Pro traders don't want you to learn about the Futures, they like to keep that edge to themselves.  That's especially important considering how poorly Hedge Funds have been performing this year – they need every advantage they can get!  

In our case, once the market does open, we don't really need the Futures trades, as we already have our portfolio hedges in place in anticipation of a broader sell-off that's likely to come.  Of course, we have plenty of long positions but they are mostly long-term longs, nothing short-term as we're expecting more pain ahead before things get better.  

The Dollar maintains its strength near 100 and Draghi indicated more easing may be ahead for the EU while we wait for 6 Fed speakers today.  With Europe talking easing and our Fed talking tightening, we could see the Euro trading for $1 before the year is over.  

The stronger Dollar means a weaker Yen and that makes Japanese exporters happy, so we watch that relationship carefully when we're trading Nikkei Futures (/NKD).  Still, the weak Yen is the ONLY thing keeping the Nikkei alive as QE there has been much less effective than hoped.  In fact, just this morning Japan had weak Q4 guidance from the manufactuting sector and, as we noted yesterday, Japan's economy has almost certainly slipped back into recession – down about 0.2% for the year, with the official report coming on Monday.  

That forms our basis for shorting these Dollar-driven runs in /NKD and, of course, the weakness in China (which I'm tired of pointing out) is a huge drag on the Japanese economy – despite the advantage of the weak Yen.  Japan is an export-driven economy and China is it''s 2nd largest trading partner – not too hard to connect those dots…

Smart Portfolio Management is all about balancing your risk and options and Futures trades are simply tools we use to help us achieve that balance (see "Smart Portfolio Management" Parts (1), (2) and (3)).  Once you have a balanced portfolio, you are able to relax and look for new opportunities.  If you are spending your days in the market running around putting out fires – you are doing something wrong!  

We're doing a Live Seminar on Washington, DC this Saturday, specifically on setting up and managing a Butterfly Portfolio – one of PSW's steadiest tracking portfolios.  We don't swing for the fences with that one – we just look to drive a slow, consistent gain, month after month with minimal risk.  

Yellen speaks at 9:30 followed at 9:45 but the hawkish Lacker so expect a lot of volatility this morning and, of course, we're all waiting on the G20's proclamation next week – along with Japan's failing GDP Report.  Lots of good things to talk about this weekend – I hope to see you in DC!  

 


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  1. Good Morning.

    Phil – Yellen – Fed Speak…  After Fed Head Yellen struggled to finish a speech on Sept 24th, and had to be helped off stage.  I managed to ferret up this rare video of Yellen struggling to convey her thoughts regarding Fed decisions, actions and monetary policy in general,  a must see. Enjoy.


  2. Now that is a blast from the past, remember it well! How old are you Naybob? I imagined you much younger. Based on your enthusiasm I guess


  3. Pretty good job programming the bots yesterday as the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq all down exactly 0.32%. Within the margin of error at the NYSE with down 0.31% but someone will get fired at the Russell since they closed down 0.81%! Must have missed a memo. 


  4. LOL Naybob….



  5. Phil, what are your thoughts on SILVER here? Wait for it to cross over 14.50 before playing long?


  6. Good morning! 

    LOL Naybob.  

    Big Chart – No improvement in more than a week now.  Where was all this bullishness coming from?  

    $42 did not hold on oil and /NG back to $2.25 but /NGJ6 at $2.455 (so far).  Now we'll see if $41.50 holds but I'll still like it bullish when it stops falling. 

    Labor/StJ – One can only hope they begin to pay the workers a bit more.


  7. Brutal year for commodities:


  8. Good Morning!


  9. VIX jumped.  A good short?


  10. Movement is even worse than it looks at Dollar is back below 99 – not helping other than covering some of the weakness.  

    17,500 on the Dow!  

    2,060 was good support:

    VIX/Sibe – The spreads are way too wide to day trade the VIX.  I don't like playing it at all.  

    St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard railed against "permazero" policy at a time when the Fed's goals have all essentially been met.

    • "While the [Fed's] goals have been met, the [Fed's] policy settings remain as extreme as they have been at any time since the recession ended in 2009," says St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard, surprising no one with his belief the central bank needs to hike rates next month.
    • "There is no reason to continue to experiment with extreme policy settings."
    • Bullard isn't a voter on the FOMC this year, but he rotates into a voting slot in 2016.

  11. Phil StJL mkucstars1 – Yellen's Bewitching - In a momentary lapse of reason, could not resist that tongue tied and twisted video, just an earth bound misfit, I knew you would get a chuckle to start the day. It's all part of learning to fly.

    "Now that is a blast from the past, remember it well! How old are you Naybob? I imagined you much younger. Based on your enthusiasm I guess"

    Thank you for the affirmation, lets just say old enough to know, but still young enough in heart, mind and spirit to do.  And flattery will usually get you everywhere, whereas cash sometimes cannot.  You can't buy or put a price on love, health or trust.  Hubba, Hubba, who do you trust?  Out.


  12. Glad I didn't stop out on Silver, SI! 


  13. From Briefing:

    ~~ABX  Barrick Gold displays strong opening reversal to fresh highs on the week,   


  14. Check out the spike down in gold and silver:

    This bodes well for PSW Investments:

    7-Eleven expands locker space, hoping to cash In on e-commerce wave

    Embedded image permalink

    4 NYT reporters shared their experiences and emotions covering Europe's refugee crisis

    Bespoke Investment Group: Potential iPhone 6s demand is weaker than the past two years

     


  15. AAPL – bounced hard off its 200 MA line, next support line at about 113 to 110.  Also hitting oversold territory.   Came across 3 negative stories on SA – Watch no selling, order cuts and no new product categories that have found success ( standard go to ).  They are getting managed down….   


  16. Silver/Traded – That's why you have to be able to play these things with conviction. 

    2nd time was already a charm on /CL – Stop at $42.50 now, of course.  

    ABX/Albo – They just sold off about $1Bn in mines (weak ones) on track to paying down $3Bn in debt – people love that.  

    Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX)

    Bid finally finding buyers after all that silliness:

    Sotheby's (BID)

    [$$] Sotheby’s Delivers a Successful Sale

    "Blue Moon Diamond" sells for world record $48.4 million – Sotheby's

    AAPL/Batman – See above, narrative is building towards sales disappointment (probably wrong but what can you do?).  


  17. Stopped out of Silver now in a good way. Back in at 14.25 if I can.


  18. Ahhh, Bloomberg "Greece ing" the market, about time we heard from them, I missed it so…


  19. Phil you have to love the pre inventory bounce on oil! It is almost as regular as me. I got in a bit early and had to sweat out the ride down to 41.69, but I have seen this show too many times now to not know it would bounce back, especially once I saw the dollar dropping too. It can be very hard to get out as it is dropping like that, and if you have conviction….

    While I am writing this it is already back down to 42.10 so good stop out at 42.50. Should be an interesting ride today. Inventories are expected to be horrible, so anything that isn't horrible could bring the price up fast. Of course if it is horrible as expected we could be testing $40 today! 

    One last comment for now, EIA and Saudis are all forecasting demand to grow in the next couple of years even if they say it will be slower, they are still predicting growth. Don't any of them see the trends to curb pollution and make inroads on global warming as a threat to growth? Even Texas is getting 10% of it's electricity from wind according to John Oliver's show (hopefully they fact checked for me). China is trying to cut pollution so people will continue to live in Beijing. It is the same all over the world as countries grapple with global warming, so where is the growth in crude demand coming from? 


  20. Phil / TASR – still going down…..  Is the '17 20/25 BCS good for new positions (3.5 and 2.1) or would you  lower this spread… ?


  21. Good job Trader!  

    Greece/Mkucs – Yep, it's about that time again.  

    Oil/Craigs – Remember, this is all on plan to be the bottom of the cycle this week or next – no surprises as all vs. what we were expecting.  As to the demand thing – I stand by my statement that demand will go LOWER each year for the next 5 years due to fuel efficiency as well as lighting efficiency.  Once 5 years goes by, LMT expects to have the first Fusion reactor on-line and Musk says he'll have $5 electric batteries that can take you to Mars and back on a single charge – that doesn't bode well for oil…  cheeky

    The best argument for oil demand growth is the rise of the middle class in China and India.  In THEORY, there are over 1Bn people in those countries who don't own cars (or refrigerators or air conditioners) and the assumption is that, at 7% annual growth, you should be taking maybe 200M of them into the middle class over 5 years – with middle class being defined as rich enough to own appliances and cars.  So, adding an entire America's worth of consumers could pop consumption but we consumer like maniacs so figure it's 70M bread-winners who consume about 1/3 what we do.  

    We use 18Mb/d for 300M people so that's 6 per 100M and they would use maybe 2Mb per 100M and that's LESS than the reduction of fuel consumption that is likely from the US, Europe, Japan, etc as we economize on our 90Mb/d consumption over the same time period.  That's the flaw in their logic.  

    Their models assume our drop in consumption is driven by the recession but that's only part of the story – look how steep the drop-off has been.  It's NOT going to turn around as the economy improves.  In fact, as we add more and more new cars, consumption goes much lower.  

    TASR/Batman – Wow, we can't catch a break!  We just rolled our $20 calls to the $15 calls yesterday and we already bought back the short cals so we just have those and the short $15 puts in the OOP.  


  22. Phil, what is the reason for the short-lived pop in silver?  Unfortunately I didn't catch it near the top and as it was going down I was hoping it would turn around again


  23. Not the best view of gold:

    Yikes!  

    And there were two stories yesterday about physical gold flying off the shelves.  

    China is on a gold ‘buying spree’

    Gold Demand Climbs to Two-Year High as Buyers Snap Up Bargains

    U.S. buying of bar and coin more than tripled to 33 tons, the highest level in five years. The lobby also reported strong European investment demand on concern over the Greek economic crisis and Ukraine conflict. Chinese investment demand grew 70 percent.

    Holdings in exchange-traded products declined 66 tons, the council said, the biggest drop since the last three months of 2014. ETP metal has sunk a further 1.4 percent since end-September to 1,508.6 tons, according to data compiled by Bloomberg as of Tuesday.

    Newly mined gold fell 1 percent to 828 tons. Older mines in South Africa and the U.S. are seeing falling output while many large new mines are near their production peaks. Total gold supply reached 1,100 tons, rising 1 percent.

    Kind of hard to let go of longs with those numbers backing it up.

    Short story is the ETF goes down and dumps mega-tons on the market and that depresses prices further.  The good news is the opposite occurs on the way back up.  

    Silver/Cjji – Whatever Yellen said and then whatever she said next and then whatever the next Fed speaker says….  All noise this week.

    That's why I prefer to focus on longer-term macros.  


  24. Consumer Comfort 41.6:

    Oil up 4.2Mb, Gasoline -2.1Mb, Distillates up 0.4Mb – Overall, that's only up 2.5Mb – not so bad – I think oil holds $42 again and heads higher.  

    • EIA Petroleum Inventories:
    • Crude +4.2M barrels vs. +1.1M consensus, +2.9M last week.
    • Gasoline -2.1M barrels vs. -0.6M consensus, -3.3M last week.
    • Distillates +0.4M barrels vs.-1.1M consensus, -1.3M last week.
    • Futures -1.72% to $42.19.

  25. /CL- Does that also mean you think we have seen the bottom? Or would you say that if we get a bad inventory report next week and there is still a significant amount of contracts to roll that we may go down one more time?


  26. SI is a bucking bronco today!!


  27. Phil / TASR – thanks, i missed the roll.  i had sold out of the BCS earlier and kept my '17 25 put.

    I just got the following -  bought  the '17 15 call @ 6, and also sold the 25 call at 2.1.  I don't want to go naked on this one – lots of shorting of the stock. but now at a 18.8 BE.  Trying to get the '17, 15 put at 2.5 that would be a good position.  


  28. Phil

     For the seminar would you consider giving a 2016 outlook by sector?

     For people with an IRA it would helpful

     Thank you


  29. Oil/Craigs – No, I still think there's a lot of rollover pressure but I think there was enough to bounce on  - all over now off that big pop right after 11.  You can still play a cross over $42 as bullish but now it's beating a dead horse – with a lot less energy.  

      /RB is a more logical long at $1.28 if you MUST play.

    You're welcome, Batman. 

    • Opening up a two-day Fed conference titled "Monetary Policy Implementation and Transmission in the Post-Crisis Period,” Janet Yellen doesn't comment on her near-term outlook for the economy or monetary policy.
    • Fed Vice Chair Fischer speaks later today.
    • Previously: Bullard: Time has come for rate hikes (Nov. 12)

    Mortgage rates jump for second straight week, Freddie Mac says

    • Mortgage rates spiked higher for the second consecutive week amid anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, Freddie Mac says in its latest weekly survey.
    • The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.98%, up from 3.87% a week ago, and the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.20%, up from 3.09%.
    • A year ago, the 30- and 15-year fixed rates averaged a respective 4.01% and 3.20%.

    Record loss at McDonald's Japan

    • McDonald's Japan reported a net loss of ¥29.28B ($238M) for the first nine months of the year.
    • The loss for the period was the largest since the stock started trading in Tokyo in 2001.
    • Total sales were off 20% to ¥137.55B ($1.12B).
    • During Q3, same-store sales declined 20% on a traffic drop of 15%.
    • McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) owns 50% of the Japanese holding company.
    • McDonald's Japan earnings release

  30. Sectors/QC – We could talk about them if you bring it up – I didn't have anything planned.  


  31. Hi Phil

    I’m long /YG and /SI at a bit higher prices and am inclined to hold on for awhile…. I may have missed it but are you considering these as conviction buys down here? Also your thoughts on /KC and /HG? I know with China issues copper could be down for awhile but some of these commodities are beaten down beyond belief…..thanks


  32. James Bond will be happy..

    https://youtu.be/gCYSWyHDpfU


  33. Jetpack/advill – cool, but not the only one. surely Putin has a squad of jetpack soldiers…


  34. Nice rebound for BID while the Dow tanks.


  35. Metals/Sun – I do think this is a solid floor but Futures are a very expensive way to find out we're wrong.  I don't see copper coming back any time soon, that's industrial while gold and silver SHOULD go up eventually as metal is more scarce than fiat currency.  

    Jet pack/Advill – I need that!  

    According to their website, the next model, JB-10, will be able to reach an altitude of over 10,000 feet; hit over 100mph and run for more than ten minutes.

    Unfortunately, that means you pretty much have to fly to a gas station and I'll be the noise is deafening but still – my house to NYC in less than 10 mins would be worth a few thousand, easily (if there were a place to put it on the other side).  

    /RB $1,275.

    30-year note auction just ended (went well, of course) so now the markets can go back up.  

    I'm leaving in an hour to get the train to DC. 


  36. Winston – I thought that was an excellent post that you made this morning (which is on Wednesday's page) ! 

    Well worth a read for anyone who missed it.


  37. Winston – Ditto on the most excellent post Dude!!!  I copied the link.

    SPX500 yesterdays high 2091 to 2082 at 3AM to 2056 on an hourly chart... wheeeeeeee


  38. Thanks..


  39. Advill,  Nice on the JB jetpack, when I saw Kubricks 2001 in 1968, I thought we would be there by 2001.  Oh well, I remember the 66 Super Bowl jetpack demo and the one on Lost in Space too, at least we finally got the jetpack right.  The jetpack cost in 2010 was 200K with a whole nine minutes of flight time.  Check out "Where's My Jetpack" for a trippy retrospective including John Robinson (Lost in Space) and the only James Bond (Sean Connery).

    As we Nattered previously: without the binding force, the very fabric of time, space and all matter would dissolve into a formless energy plasma and the other forces would be quite useless.  Hold two magnets + + and see them repel, that force is exerted by photons or light. The good news? If one can control the binding force which Maxwell found – electro magnetism – then one can alter the physical nature or construct of space time – warp – and in addition to many other things, can travel much faster than light.

    If one could harness enough of the binding force to repel the earth's magnetism… of course the magnet would have to be supercooled with helium as used in magnetic resonance imaging.  But then again,  you could utilize Die Glocke Wunderwaffe or magnets and mercury, like a magnetic vortex motor, or a Tesla unipolar, hmmm.  Makes one wonder if this technology was used to levitate monolithic stones for construction purposes by the ancients.  Nah, slave labor, just like today.  Anyway, here is a futuristic (not here yet) look at one of those many other things, which would render JB's jet pack useless.  But judging from how long it took to get to this point, probably not in our lifetime.


  40. Wireless bungee jumping? Really? At least he was wearing a helmet.

    Not for me, thanks…


  41. Yuch, not much of a bounce so far.  

    Oh well, I've got to go – will be on-line from DC tomorrow. 

    Hope to see you guys down there, 

    - Phil


  42. Phil – Enjoy DC, wish I could be there. Next time.

    mkucstars1 – convincing as hell, but its not real, someday, but not today.


  43. Pharm    Any idea on PETX and where it's going? THANKS


  44. Pharm  Any idea on PLX and where it's going?THANKS AGAIN


  45. PHIL:  ARLP AS A COAL PLAY IS STARTING TO LOOK INTERESTING.  ANY OPINION WOULD BE APPRECIATED .


  46. The other side of unfinished Bridges and buildings.

    The day before Yesterday I reported from my first impressions of Barcelona. They still stand there as I saw them.

    BUT what a surprise I was in for, when our Member Advill, a local of Barcelona, took us on, to show us the other side of his City. To meet a member in person is always a wonderful thing. But to meet Advill and his wonderful wife Marie, was the cake of our visit to Barcelona.

    Advill and his wife took us to all the super sides Barcelona could offer, he picked us up in his car and showed us from Harbor to mountain,  from see side to the Olympic Stadium, an incredible Cathedral, Buildings and lovely Gardens, you just name it. To top it all he took us for lunch in one of the nicest downtown restaurants. Hell we were lucky to meet such a super couple.

    We really sometimes do not know, what you can find just behind a Username. Thank you Advill!!!


  47. Wow, WiFi on the train is so bad I'm using cell instead.  

    I see oil is still in the crapper and so are the indexes.  Don't forget Fisher speaks last and he's a hawk (and the vice-chair), so no reason for a good close.  

    Sorry, IHS, but I'll have to look tomorrow.  


  48. Still, this is totally great compared to a plane!


  49. Stocks in the U.S. fell as comments from Federal Reserve officials reinforced the view that interest rates will rise this year, even as concerns that a global economic slowdown may spread rekindled a selloff in commodities.


  50. PETX – going to have to wait to see something come to the market.  Should hover in this area.  Looks like the have a year or so worth of cash left, so don't be surprised if they do a shelf offering in the spring. I have the stock and the Feb 10 C STO.


  51. Apple Inc. wants to make it easier to settle a tab with friends using your iPhone.


  52. Corruption was rampant at a nonprofit entity that managed 35,000 acres of watershed for Newark, New Jersey, with the executive director secretly writing checks to herself and squandering public money in high-risk margin trading, state investigators reported last year.


  53. Pure coincidence or impeccable timing? Either way, Hong Kong billionaire Joseph Lau has just pulled off a twofer for the history books.


  54. American truckers have developed a slow leak.


  55. It’s been a rough month for Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Holdings.


  56. CSCO reports today after the close.


  57. Federal Reserve officials stressed that policy should be tightened only gradually after interest rates are increased for the first time since 2006, with New York Fed President William C. Dudley saying the conditions for liftoff “could soon be satisfied.”


  58. Daniel Biran 52Co-founder of two-year-old, 15-employee startup Clipfort in Kfar Saba, Israel


  59. This year, Chuck Robbins inherited one of the toughest gigs in technology, replacing John Chambers as chief executive officer of Cisco Systems. From 2000 to 2010, the networking equipment pioneer averaged 13 percent annual sales growth. Since then, 4.3 percent. Robbins says Cisco has already seen the clouds on the horizon. “You cannot deny what may be happening in the marketplace because it doesn’t feel good for your portfolio,” he says.


  60. It came through loud and clear in Tuesday’s presidential debate: Republicans don’t like Wall Street. They don’t like its behavior before the 2008 financial meltdown. They don’t like the bailouts that followed. And they don’t like the financial power the biggest banks still wield. 


  61. To make sure all 15 of the Busch’s Fresh Food Market stores had enough turkeys over 22 pounds (10 kilograms) to sell for Thanksgiving this month, meat buyer John Taormina began ordering in January. He didn’t end up with a single one of the big birds, which last year accounted for more than a third of what the Michigan company sold for the holiday.


  62. Textron Inc.’s Cessna probably will introduce its largest-ever business jet next week to meet customers’ demand for roomier, more-comfortable cabins and longer range, according to analysts and industry consultants.


  63. Volkswagen AG wants its workers to be open about any cheating at the carmaker, as long as they talk by the end of the month.


  64. Puerto Rico as if it’s on the verge of economic disaster. Tourists are still flocking to its beach resorts. Malls, anchored by department stores like Macy’s and JCPenney, are full of shoppers. At rush hour, roads are clogged with late-model luxury SUVs. But after years of borrowing to prop up the island’s stagnant economy, the government faces $720 million in debt payments in the next two months, and it may run out of cash as early as December.


  65. More than half a million people signed up for Obamacare plans during the first week that government-run markets were open, in what is projected to be a challenging year of trying to reach new people who haven’t yet gotten insurance under the law.


  66. SunPower Corp. expects revenue to climb next year to as much as $3.5 billion — if you disregard Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. If the rules are applied, sales will decline, to as low as $1.2 billion.


  67. Ugly into the close today, what did you guys do??


  68. Metal markets took a pounding on Thursday, sending gold to a five-year low and copper to the cheapest since 2009.


  69. It is well-established among pollsters that for either party’s presidential nominee to win in 2016 they must attract the correct balance of what is now commonly referred to as the white vs. the non-white vote. This development has spawned numerous…


  70. Question for the group since I know Phil is on his way to Washington D.C. I am probably the only one still holding calls for GTATQ which will expire in January. I was wondering if letting them expire worthless is the only thing to be done at this point? I think that they are not tradeable and it looks like no miracles will occur, so just curious if I have any options here? Thanks guys.


  71. World history is full of secret clubs with elite members, like Skull and Bones, the Freemasons, and the Illuminati. Shrouded in mystery, these clubs become the stuff of legend. In a lavish Upper Manhattan townhouse lies the headquarters of similarly legendary,…


  72. Craigs

    You'r not the only one! I think let expire.


  73. Craig – If they are Jan options, you may want to sell them for a loss this year to lower any excessive gains this year.  If you want the loss next year wait for them to expire. 


  74. The video streaming site Hulu is in talks to sell a portion of itself to Time Warner that would value the company in the range of $5 billion to $6 billion, The Wall Street Journal’s Shalini Ramachandran and Amol Sharma reported Thursday. The deal would…


  75. Nordstrom Inc. fell as much as 18 percent in late trading after third-quarter earnings missed analysts’ estimates, renewing concerns about a slump in the department-store industry.Profit amounted to 42 cents in the period, which ended Oct. 31, the Seattle-based company…


  76. For more than a decade, Macy’s Inc. boss Terry Lundgren has defended the traditional department store—gobbling up other retailers, testing out new selling formats and trying to clamp down on discounts, to name a few tactics. Now, after years of…


  77. This is viewer supported newsDonateThe fight over income inequality gained national attention when fast-food workers walked off the job in hundreds of cities across the country on Tuesday demanding a $15-an-hour minimum wage and union rights. Some “Fight for $15″…


  78. This is viewer supported newsDonateThe fight over income inequality gained national attention when fast-food workers walked off the job in hundreds of cities across the country on Tuesday demanding a $15-an-hour minimum wage and union rights. Some “Fight for $15″…


  79. Given this… We suspect the message to Fed Speakers from “the bulls” is… The biggest issues today were the collapse in credit, crude, and copper; but stock weakness dragged the S&P 500 into negative territory for the year… On the…


  80. A Wal-Mart Stores Inc worker group that has pushed the retailer to raise pay and benefits is launching a 15-day protest leading up to Black Friday to rekindle the fight for a $15 per hour minimum wage and more opportunities…


  81. A Wal-Mart Stores Inc worker group that has pushed the retailer to raise pay and benefits is launching a 15-day protest leading up to Black Friday to rekindle the fight for a $15 per hour minimum wage and more opportunities…


  82. You da man Advill, sounds like fun… thanks for sharing Yodi


  83. I thought about taking the train, but it's just over an hour drive… still, the hotel wants $42 just to park for one night!


  84. Jeff, I smiled cuz I'm short the S&P :)


  85. This could be big for GOOG:

    http://www.wired.com/2015/11/youtube-music-opens-sites-enormous-music-collection-to-all/

    I have already a Google Music account (got the early $7.99 special) and you get YouTube Red and now YouTube Music as part of it. Watching all the YouTube videos without the ads (I don't watch a lot but waiting 15s at least to watch a 2 minute video gets on my nerves) really changes the experience and you get music streaming as a bonus! That's a deal that's hard to beat and YouTube has just so much content right now that replicating it would be pretty hard. And of course all the search algorithm behind it. 


  86. Parking / mkucstars – Do they detail the car also for that price? You might be better off leaving your car at the commuter train station parking and taking a Uber to the hotel!



  87. Good news mkuc! 


  88. The Fed’s decision to delay raising interest rates has helped to offset the economic headwinds caused by a strengthening U.S. dollar, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said, adding that it “may be appropriate” to raise rates next month.


  89. You speed along an empty highway, past a little town of rice paddies and vegetable stands, and watch the famous castle rise up as you approach. Black-clad guards in flak jackets clear you ahead of a red steel archway. Next stop: the Shanghai International Tourism and Resorts Zone.


  90. As a rout in commodities deepened in Asia, stocks in the region slumped with mining and energy companies dragging Australia’s benchmark to a seven-week low and Chinese shares dropping on slowing credit growth.


  91. Cisco Systems Inc. said weaker global economic growth and the strength of the U.S. dollar are hurting international sales of its equipment that manages Internet traffic, forcing it to dial back forecasts.


  92. Changes are afoot that will help Japan boost its gross domestic product — at least on paper — by accounting for research and development spending on such things as robotics technology and new cancer drugs.


  93. LoanDepot, a fast-growing mortgage lender founded after the U.S. housing bubble burst, aborted a plan to sell as much as $540 million of stock to the public, hours before it was scheduled to set a price.


  94. Only a substantial rise in Chinese metals demand is likely to be sufficient to balance copper and aluminum markets, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which said recent output cut by miners aren’t large enough to rescue prices. Copper fell to the lowest since 2009.


  95. It’s been a quarter century since the fall of the Soviet empire triggered one of history’s greatest wealth transfers. Now bankers are preparing for another as Russia’s first generation of capitalists makes way for the next.


  96. “May you live in interesting times” is  said to be an ancient Chinese curse. 


  97. German economic growth slowed in the third quarter as companies battled the Greek crisis and a China-led slowdown in emerging markets.


  98. The Turkish coastal resort of Antalya plays host to the Group of 20 summit from Sunday, and puts world leaders next door to one of the biggest crises on their plate.


  99. The U.S. and its allies have reason to be skeptical of Russia’s new in Syria. The proposal has arrived, after all, just as Russian airstrikes have begun to help President Bashar al-Assad to his first military since they began. Nevertheless, the plan contains some ideas that could help end a conflict that’s killed 250,000 people and sent millions of refugees as far as Europe. 


  100. Millions of Americans lack access to reliable, reasonably priced financial services. Perhaps the U.S. Postal Service can help.


  101. It’s another week to forget for many of the world’s commodities producers.


  102. With Hillary Clinton’s announcement Thursday of a to build infrastructure in coal country, the Democratic front-runner is directly confronting an issue that others in her party have preferred to avoid.


  103. Europe’s index futures dropped, signaling more losses for stocks that already had their worst day in six weeks yesterday.


  104. India’s rupee headed for a fifth weekly decline after an election defeat in a key state by the party of Prime Minister Narendra Modi heaped more pressure on the government to deliver on reform pledges.


  105. Emerging-market stocks headed for the worst week in almost two months as China’s broadest measure of new credit slumped and lower oil prices dragged down energy companies. South Korea’s won weakened to a five-week low.


  106. About 1.25 percent of kids in the U.S. had a diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder from 2011 to 2013, according to the National Health Interview Survey. In 2014, it was 2.24 percent — a colossal move, in statistical terms.


  107. China’s slowing economy, falling commodity prices and a looming U.S. interest-rate increase all stacked up on Asian currencies this week, with South Korea’s won and the Malaysian ringgit leading the losses.


  108. Philippine central bank Governor Amando Tetangco is resisting the temptation to cut interest rates, saying inflation has bottomed and is forecast to pick up slowly in 2016 and 2017.


  109. Chinese banks’ troubled loans swelled to almost 4 trillion yuan ($628 billion) by the end of September, more than the gross domestic product of Sweden, according to figures released by the industry regulator.


  110. As part of her $30 billion proposal to help towns hit hard by coal’s collapse, U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton said she’d help to revive the “prime real estate” of shut coal mines and coal-fired power plants.


  111. Indian stocks tumbled, sending the benchmark index toward its sixth drop in seven days, after inflation accelerated and a rout in commodities dragged down Asian equities.


  112. Phil,

    Enjoy DC and please give a passing slap or Gibbs to the postal goofballs at Plaza L'Enfant… Global economic contraction continues unabated, commodities rout deepens, retail getting hammered, transport container volumes collapsing, the dollar starting to take the form of the destructor at 99.5…

    Seasonal downturn in monetary flows have been large, but yet to arrive at the mid Dec surgically pronounced inflection.  Which from what I am seeing on that first chart, the lag thereof might last until mid Feb. extending the pain.  Yeah, it sound so familiar but I think Karen said it best…


  113. Good morning from DC!  

    Futures off a bit but not tragic – surely the wise men and women of the G20 will save us, right?  

    DAX is off 1%, so let's keep a close eye on them:

    Nikkei tried to get happy but failed:

     /NG is making it's usual morning move – good for a nickel a day almost!  

    The trick is to get out before the market opens and it heads down again.  One day it will pop for real – but who knows when? 


  114. Oops, I'm logged in as admin for some reason! 


  115. Wow Greg, you sound just like Phil! :)


  116. Yodi / Barcelona,  Thanks Yodi, we enjoyed it a lot too, it was very instructive talk with you about your investment techniques and well, sharing with you both, hope you will enjoy your winter holidays in the warmer south of Spain….you will find a lot of german fellows there as yourself using the heating savings in the beach….let me know if you need something.


  117. Stocks I'm considering for 2016:

    • AMT – Consolidating for a breakout.  LTE growth should be great for them.  Real estate is a great moat.  
    • AMRN – Heart space, good pipeline. 
    • ASX – Tech with a 6.5% dividend. 
    • AXP – OK, we get it, they lost COST.  
    • CPN – A natural gas play and a utility play.  
    • CSCO – Butterfly?
    • DECK – Too cheap.
    • DOC – REIT for medical properties.  6.2%.
    • ETP – Nat Gas MLP, 8.4%.  
    • F – Cheap again. 
    • FIG – Coming off a bad year.  5% dividend.  
    • GiLD – Still cheap.
    • GNW – Suffered enough?
    • IBM – Stock of the year.
    • IMAX -  Star Wars.  China IPO.  
    • INTC - 
    • INO – Vaccines.
    • KNDI – Fun electric car play.
    • LVS - 
    • OHI – Nursing homes.  6.5% REiT. 
    • RDS.A – Best of the worst..
    • RF – Possible takeover.  Low-risk bank,
    • SVU – Cheap again and A&P competition out. 
    • WMT