Courtesy of Mish.
I am a big fan of Nate Silver. He was spot on in the last two presidential elections and I bought into his methodology, in advance, confidently predicting the results.
Nate adjusted his odds as the campaign progressed and got 49 out of 50 correct in 2008.
I am not sure which one he missed, but I got 49 out 50 correct before Obama even won the nomination. Missouri showed me up.
Initially, my methodology was quite a bit different. I was certain the economy was headed for disaster and that every remotely close state would swing Democratic. It was that simple for me, but I became a huge fan of his methodology as the election campaign progressed.
Nate got all 50 right in 2012. I missed a couple. But I made my picks early in a bragging rights bet with friends. Had I predicted in the final week, I likely would have just gone with Silver’s picks or his methodology for the same outcome.
So yes, I am a fan. Yet, I have to say “Dear Nate, you are missing something big time!
Polls Relevant?
Week after week Donald Trump surges in the polls, and week after week Silver says ignore them.
I say you can no longer ignore them. I will explain why below. First let’s look at how Nate sees things.
- August 6: In Donald Trump’s Six Stages Of Doom Nate Silver said “I recently estimated Trump’s chance of becoming the GOP nominee at 2 percent. How did I get there? By considering the gantlet he’ll face over the next 11 months — Donald Trump’s Six Stages of Doom.”
- September 15: Nate Silver said Trump Has About 5% Chance Of Winning
- October 20: In Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible Nate Silver again referred to Six Stages of Doom saying “Trump’s odds are in the high single digits… and on September 1 his chances were 2%”. Adding “nobody quite like Trump has won a party nomination before, or even come all that close to it. So there’s some universe where his chances are 0 percent. …. to some extent 4 percent vs 7 percent is an angels-dancing-on-pinheads debate.”
- November 23: In Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls Nate Silver said “Trump’s chances are higher than 0 but (considerably) less than 20 percent”.
South Carolina Poll
Here are results from a South Carolina Poll released December 9….
