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Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Truck Rates Plunge; What About Actual Shipping Volumes? Strong Case for Pending Recession

Courtesy of Mish.

Trucking Spot Prices Plunge

Here’s an interesting chart and commentary courtesy of James Jaillet who writes Truckload Rates Sunk Again in November.

Average per-mile rates on the spot market fell again for all three major truckload segments in November, according to data from loadboard Truckstop.com.

This is the fourth straight month that rates dipped in all three segments, continuing a now year-long downward trend spurred by both a major drop in diesel prices and market conditions.

Paid rates, verified averages of rates paid to carriers, fell 4 cents from October in reefer and flatbed segments and 7 cents in flatbed.

Paid reefer [refrigerated] rates in the month averaged $2.14, down 43 cents from last November. Rates in the segment have fallen 26 cents since May.

Fuel Costs

Let’s dive into Freight Rate Index Data to see the reason for the plunge.

The index includes the following costs: Fuel, Wages, Equipment, Depreciation, Financing, Admin, Compliance, and Insurance. Nearly all of the volatility pertains to fuel and wages.

For August through November the downward trend is nearly all due to lower fuel costs. In the December 2 report a nearly 3 cent drop in fuel was nearly offset by a 3 cent rise in wages. …

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