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PhilStockWorld December Portfolio Review – Million Dollar Edition!

Still One Million Dollars!  

$1,004,162.60 to be exact and that is UP $2,018 since our last Portfolio Review, back on 11/23 (right before Thanksgiving).  As I said at the time, +66% was our 3-year goal for our primary, paired portfolios (we began with $600,000).  Since we hit that target before the end of year two and into what we thought would be a tumultuous holiday period - locking ourselves into a protective, neutral position seemed prudent – especially as, on the whole, I'd rather be in CASH!!!  

Unfortunately, CASH!!! is not a very popular position and I bowed to the will of our Members and kept the virtual portfolios running, rather than cashing in in August.  Frankly, I don't think I would have done any better from a cash position since August anyway as I've been too gung-ho bullish on Natural Gas (/NG) and too bearish on the FANG stocks – or at least Amazone (AMZN) and Netflix (NFLX) – both of which are bearish plays in our STP and LTP that are hurting us.  

So there's certainly something to be said for having a well-diversified and well-hedged portfolio strategy and we do have PLENTY of cash in our portfolios (almost 90%, in fact) but, more importantly, we're using quite a bit of margin now – so we're not as flexible as it seems (using ordinary margin – not portfolio margin, which would have tons of room).  That's because, especially in the LTP, we rely on short put sales to generate a steady supply of cash but, when the whole market goes down at once – the margins can get stretched and we lose some flexibility.  

SPX DAILYWe're prepared to see 1,850 tested on the S&P but much lower than that and we're going to have to start covering some positions.  That money, if needed, would come out of the Short-Term Portfolio (STP) which gained $31,742 in the past few weeks while the Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) lost $32,031 – as it's amost entirely full of bullish positions.  

So, denied the opportunity to go to cash (and circumstances do sometimes prevent this when you are trading), we have opted to balance ourselves to the point of neutrality and, as you'll see when we reveiw our positons, we still have some real downside zingers that can pay off huge in a big sell-off but, on the whole – we're still net a bit more bullish than I'm really comfortable with.  We've been making it up with downside plays on the Futures in our Live Daily Chat but those trades don't get entered in our portfolios, which only track the stocks and option positions.  

Short-Term Portfolio (STP):  Not many changes in 3 weeks.  We gave up on our GLL puts as gold was just too annoying and we added a long play on IMAX in anticipation of Star Wars giving them a pop beginning next week but, other than that, we have the same hedges we've had for a while.  One of them is the super-aggressive 100 SDS March $19 calls, which we paid $17,500 for and still haven't seen a return on – and that's why we haven't been moved to add more yet.  

They have time and they have position because, as you can see, SDS popped to $25 in Aug and $24 in late Sept and that would be about $50-60,000 of protection on just those calls and then our SQQQ's would kick in for up to another $45,000 – so it's GOOD protection but not GREAT when the LTP can lose $32,000 on a 70-point drop in the S&P and we're still 162 points above 1,850.  See why I'm nervous?  CASH!!! is so much simpler to balance…  

As noted above, SDS and SQQQ are our primary hedges and they are good for about $100,000 worth of protection (and we have a few TZAs too) but they are already worth $25,750 so only $75,000 more protection or pretty much exactly to the Must Hold line on the S&P at 1,850.  Looking at this chart – you can see why we've been reluctant to overhedge by protecting ourselves below that line:

If 1,850 does finally fail – that's when we'll all wish we were in CASH!!! because it will be a huge scramble to add more hedges againts another $100,000 loss in the LTP.  That's why we collected $22,000 for some AMZN short calls, $5,700 for TSLA short calls and $4,800 for FAS short calls ($32,500) plus we have the 5 BWLD puts that are already up a few thousand.  Still, we have to be very careful around the Fed and we'll need to get more aggressively short if we get a bad reaction to their decision on Wednesday.  

In addition to those plays we have an FXP spread that's doing quite well (waiting for expiration to collect) and our GLD and SDS plays should do well if there's a real panic – we'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.  

Long-Term Portfolio (LTP):  Another reason I'd like to shut this portfolio down is because it forces us to look for all new positions with potential, rather than sticking with ones we liked a year ago.  I just published a 2016 Watch List for our Members on Monday and those are stocks under consideration for LTP plays but, even with $880,832 in virtual cash in that portfolio, we're still using $1M in margin and only have about $300,000 in buying power left.  

The solution will be (if needed) to move cash from the Short-Term Portfolio to the Long-Term Portfolio, which is what we're supposed to do with short-term profits in our paired portfolios, but that will then make us less flexible for adding cover.  We could trim 10% of our margin requirement by moving the 20 short NFLX calls to the STP or just dumping them (about even now) but we're not pressed yet so no rush. 

  • GTATQ – Old, dead position we hope may come back one day (but we're not willing to spend $400 to double down – so that tells you something!  
  • NFLX – As noted, using a lot of margin and a very dangerous play but could return $34,000 in a month if NFLX goes back below $106.  
  • AA – Hard to say when materials come back but it's a cheap play so no reason to roll it.  If AA isn't picking up by June, THEN we'll be concerned and look to roll to 2018 (or 2019 by then).  
  • ANTM – On track and good for a new entry.  
  • AWAY – On track and would be good for a new entry but that price is broken – no way you can still sell those puts for that price!  Even more crazy, the portfolio shows this as a loss though we're $12 (52%) over our strike goal.  

  • BID – Good for a new entry but I'm not pressing what we have for now.  
  • BP – Suprisingly holding up. 
  • CCJ – Not worth rolling and I'm happy with the time-frame – good for a new entry. 
  • CHL – Good for a new entry.  It's the only thing in China I do like.
  • CLF – Can't catch a break on this one but 7,000 at net $1.20 would be $8,400 so we can afford a calm sense of detachment.  
  • CMI – Huge damage on this one.  5 2017 $115 puts are now $32.  Still, even after a big miss last Q, they are on track to make $9 this year and probably the same next year so under $90 (p/e 10) is a bit silly.  We could roll to 2x (10) of the 2018 $85 puts ($15.50) but there's no urgency and I don't think $115 is an unrealistic target for 12 months (it only took them 6 months to fall from $140 to $87.50).  Good for a new trade if you are brave.   
  • DBA – Another sector that's been crushed and here we do need to roll our 25 Jan $22 puts ($1.80) to the 2017 $22 puts at $2.05, so at least we pick up another 0.25 while we wait.  
  • ECA – On track, good for a new entry.  
  • EXC – Not that confident but no change.  
  • GILD – Good for a new entry.
  • HOG – I don't find the rolls very attractive so I'd rather stick with it for now. 
  • INTC – On track
  • JO – Good for a new entry.  
  • KORS – Good for a new entry.
  • MAT – On track
  • MTW – Only pays $1 to move to 2018, so not worth it.  Good for a new entry.
  • MYL – On track
  • SWKS – On track
  • TGT – New and on target (I don't think there should be 2 of them but let's make it 10 on one line).

  • USO – Ouch on these.  I forgot they were there.  2017 $15 puts are $4.45 and not worth rolling until we're sure there's a floor in oil because, if not, our roll targets would jump up faster than our short puts (the 2017 $11 puts are $2.15 at the moment for a possible 2x roll but maybe we get the $10 puts ).  
  • WFM – Brand new and good for a new entry.  
  • WYNN – Also new and good for a new entry.  
  • RIG – At the bottom of our range but I'm not willing to throw good money after bad at the moment.  
  • ARR – As long as they keep paying those dividends.  Good for a new entry.  
  • CM – Not bad as they pay $3.40 in dividends to compensate for the sell-off.  Good for a new entry but I'd wait and see how the Fed affects the banks. 

  • ABX – On target.
  • ARO – Small and way off target but not one I want to put money into yet.  
  • BHI – Love this one – good for a new position but I'd go with a lower short put from scractch.  HAL is at $37 so 1.1 x $37 = $40.7 + $19 is $59.70 would be the close at the moment and that's in the money for us.
  • BRCM – On track.
  • CIM – Nice dividend payer but not enough money from the short calls to make it worthwhile from scratch.  
  • COH – Good for a new position. 

  • GNW – Have they suffered enough?  Rolling prices aren't good and I'm happy with the target, so no change.
  • IBM – Our Stock of the Year for 2016.  Good for a new entry.
  • IRBT – Our Stock of the Century with 85 years to go!  On track.
  • LL – 10 2017 $25 puts ($12.70) can be rolled to 20 2018 $15 puts ($6.30) for about even, so no reason not to do that.  2017 $15s ($4.10) can be rolled to 2018 $13s ($6.05) and we'll leave the short 2017 $25 calls where they are. 
  • NRF – We can sell 10 2018 $15 calls for $2.70 and roll the short 2017 $13 puts $1.85 to the 2018 $13 puts ($3.68).
  • OIH – 10 short 2017 $30 puts ($5.40) can be rolled to 15 of the 2018 $25 puts at $4.15.  20 2017 $30 calls ($2.72) can be rolled to the 2018 $22 ($8)/30 ($4) bull call spreads at $4.  The short 2017 $35 calls ($1.40) can be rolled to the April $30 calls ($1.30).
  • RIG – 20 short 2017 $27 puts at $15 can be rolled to 40 2018 $15 puts at $6.50.  As we collected $8, we've now collected net $3 per short put for a break-even at $12 – not so terrible.  The other 20 short 2017 $15 puts at $5.25 can be bought back and cancelled.  
  • SDRL – Got so much worse recently.  Fortunately, we didn't sell any puts but let's by back the 2017 $25 calls (0.05) and see if there's a bounce at some point.

  • SLW – Aggressive play looking for silver to come back.  2017 $18 puts ($5.85) can be rolled to 2018 $15 puts ($4.60) and we still will have collected net $1.65.  The 2017 $10 calls are in the money at $4.40 and we can sell the 2017 $15 calls for $2.02 and use that money to roll the 2017 $10 calls to 2018 $8 calls at $6.50.  
  • TASR – Our Stock of the Decade with a nice chance to buy more.  10 2017 $25 puts ($9.25) can be rolled to 20 2018 $17 puts at $5.25.  10 2017 $25 calls ($1.75) can be rolled to 20 of the 2018 $17 ($6.10)/22 ($4.50) bull call spreads and we can buy back the short 2017 $35 calls (0.60) and wait for a bounce to sell more calls.  
  • TWC – On target (buyout).  Still, silly not to collect more money by rolling our short 2017 $155 puts ($8) to the 2018 $160 puts ($12) and the short 2017 $175 calls ($20) can be rolled to the 2018 $175 calls ($25.50).
  • TWTR – Let's buy back the short 2017 $40 calls ($2.12) and wait for a bounce to sell something else.  
  • UNG – 10 short 2017 $14 pus ($6.30) can be rolled to 20 2018 $10 puts ($3.45) and 10 2017 $9 calls ($1.13) can be rolled to 20 2018 $8 calls ($2.07) and we'll buy back the short 2017 $14 calls (0.35) and wait for the bounce.  
  • WMT – 5 short 2017 $65 puts ($9) can be rolled to 10 2018 $52.50 puts ($4.60).   10 2017 $65 calls ($2.40) can be rolled to 20 2018 $57.50 ($6.70)/65 ($3.80) bull call spreads at $2.90.  10 short 2017 $75 calls (0.65) can be bought back.  
  • YHOO – On track, good for a new entry.  

So, no major clunkers (or none we weren't willing to work with).  I tried not to add margin and we do have $880,832 in cash to throw around so may as well put it to work in our positions.  Since we got more bullish in our long positons – especially buying back some short calls (because they were played out anyway), we now have MORE of a need for an additional hedge in the STP if the markets look ugly next week!

Don't forget, rolling from 2017 to 2018 is NOT an emergency – get your prices!  

Butterfly Portfolio:  Usually our most reliable portfolio, the Butterfly Portfolio has taken a $10,000 hit since our last review.  We haven't made any changes and mostly it's simply a matter of our portfolio reporting poor net spread costs to us as the volatility increases.  In theory, there's nothing to change as we have no contracts expiring until January but let's see if we can make any improvements on what we have.  Even after dropping 10%, we're still +81.1% with over 90% cash and very little margin used (about 25%).  

  • DIS - Here we double-sold the short puts and it looks good for our 10 short Jan $110 puts to expire worthless and, hopefully, the short $120 calls will as well but that's a very tight range ($110-120) that we targeted with 30 days to go.  Amazingly, we have $5,000 to collect on the short puts and calls if we hit the mark – that's 5% of the whole portfolio!  Clearly we're positioned generally bullish on this one.  Interestingly, despite the move up, the VIX made our 2018 short puts go $4,000 against us – this is why you can't take the balance too seriously in a violent market (goes for all the portfolios, of course). 
  • JPM – That's just the leftover leg of a long-dead position.  Waiting for it to expire. 
  • VLO – This one took a tumble from $73.03 last month and that's been good for our long put and, actually, we sold the Jan $65 calls,, so we were aggressively short and we're playing this perfectly (we even sold 1/2 as many puts), yet the broker spread balance Gods are against us at the moment.  As we're currently being charged $12,800 for 20 short Jan $65 calls and 10 short Jan $67.50 puts despite being right at $67.51 – we have that huge gain to look forward to!  
  • TXN is another 5-legged play (this happens to them as they mature) and it hasn't really gone anwywhere in a month and is right on track for our target (between $52.50 and $57.50 in 30 days).  Frankly, I'm in awe of such amazingly accurate predictions made a month ago – how about you?  8-)
  • GLD – We were way to bullish on gold but the net cost of the long position is just $4,175 and it's still $3,665, so no tragedy and easy to make back, but we never got our $1 for the short Jan $110 calls and missed an opportunity to sell this month so bad on us.  Selling calls every month is our JOB – we need to remember to do it.  Still, that being said, it doesn't make any sense to sell anything less than SOME $110 calls for $1 ($1,000 for $10) – so let's llok sharp on the next spike up.  

  • LNC  - We're a bit lower than expected after last week's sudden 10% drop and hopefully $50 will hold up.  We sold the $55 puts and calls and they were right on track until, suddenly, they were not.  That's the game with these things but 30 days is a long time.
  • OIH – Dipped a bit below the short Jan $29 puts and last time, we were worried we were being too aggressive selling the $30 calls – how quickly things change.  Here our long calls are hurting us as we have more of them than long puts but I'm comfortable being biased slightly long into next year – despite the recent drop.  In fact, the 20 2018 $35 calls are $2.50 and the 2018 $30 calls are $4 so let's roll our longs lower and that will give us confidence to sell more calls on the next move up.
  • PG – This is a new one for us and pretty much on track at $77.78 (we're targeting $75).  Interesting that they didn't lose any ground last week but remember it was the change in China's one-child policy that made us bullish on them and that's a macro that is market-independent.  

  • UNG – There's no point to the 2017 $20 calls (now 0.16) so let's buy those back.  Our 2017 $10 calls are 0.90 (I'm going by TOS last sales, not the broker sheet) and we can move them to 40 2018 $7 ($2.40)/$12 (1.10) bull call spreads at $1.30 each and our 30 short 2017 $15 puts ($7.50) can be rolled to 45 short 2018 $12 puts ($5.20) and we'll just hope this thing actually turns up one day.  The climate conference would make you think more /NG will be used but sentiment has been awful lately (and it's hot). 
  • WMT –  Let's buy back the 2017 short $77.50 calls and now we can sell 10 2018 $55 puts for $5.60.  Our 20 long 2017 $65 calls ($2.40) can be rolled to 20 2018 $52.50 ($9.60)/65 ($3.75) bull call spreads so that's net $6,100 on our 2018 position (bullish bias with no long puts) and we've already sold just 10 Jan $67.50 calls for $1,800 and we have 24 of those sales ahead of us!  We'll see how Jan shakes out but this is going to be a very nice position for us.  

If we never had any losing months in the Butterfly Portfolio, we'd never have an opportunity to take advantage of prices to improve our positions, right?  That's true of all well-balanced portfolios – you use the turns against you to improve the positions you still believe in and, as long as the market cycles back around – you end up with a large amount of very solid positions.  It has been many months since we've had an opportunity to press our Butterfly bets – we'll make the most of them!  

We did a review of our Options Opportunity Portfolio in our Live Member Chat Room on Monday, so I won't repeat it here.  It's our worst-performing portfolio as it was net bullish and took a big hit this month, back to near even but in no way in bad shape – just needs more time to cook.

On the whole, with just two weeks left in the year, I'm thrilled with the performance of all of our portfolios but I'd still rather be in CASH!!! headling into the New Year – just in case!  


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  1. Phil/TASR

    Good morning Phil.  Thank you for the update this morning.

    I have the following in TASR

    20 – JAN17 Long 15.00 Call @ 6.30

    20 – JAN17 Short 15.00 Put @ 2.31

    Question – My margin is sneaking up there to $11,000. Would you advise any adjustments? 

    Thank you

  2. TASR/Justav – That's very aggressively long and now the 2017 $15s are $5.80, so not bad but I'd feel better with the 2018 $13 ($8)/22 ($4.90) bull call spread at $4.10 as you could have 30 of those for the same price and they pay back $27,000 (up $12,600) at $22 while your $15s only break-even at that price.  With those, you can sell 10 front-month calls whenever TASR has a nice run and pocket $1,000+ (the March $20s are $1 now).  As to the puts, with TASR at $17, the short puts are $2.90 and that's where all your margin is coming from.  If you are in any way tight on margin – then DON'T SELL PUTS – especially when all it does is offset 1/3 the cost of a spread.

    By the way, TOS is only charging $3,000 in net ordinary margin to sell 20 2017 15 puts, so I'd look into changing brokers.

  3. Thank you sir!

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  45. When it comes to the fate of the US stock market (and economy), no company is more important than Apple. As reported previously, the world’s most valuable company by market cap not only accounted for 20% of all U.S. margin…

  46. During a hearing on affirmative action, Justice Antonin Scalia just questioned whether some people of color are better served at “slower” schools. If that angers you, consider this: As many as four seats on the Supreme Court could become vacant…

  47. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., the e-commerce giant headed by billionaire Jack Ma, agreed to buy Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post and other affiliated media assets for HK$2.06 billion ($266 million).

  48. The days of the divergence trade may be numbered.

  49. The rupee pared losses from the weakest level since September 2013 as traders said state-run lenders sold the greenback on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India.

  50. Eighteen nations including the U.S., Japan and Germany will work together to develop international carbon markets to help speed the pace of emission reductions under the Paris climate deal struck Saturday, according to the New Zealand government.

  51. A cold wave will likely clear up smog in Beijing later Monday after the city issued warnings this weekend for children and the elderly to stay inside as pollution levels rose again in the wake of its first-ever red pollution alert earlier this month.

  52. Cheniere Energy Inc. named Neal Shear as interim chief executive officer, replacing Charif Souki, after billionaire investor Carl Icahn increased his stake in the company that will shortly begin exports of liquefied natural gas from the U.S.

  53. Besides facing hefty fines, criminal punishments and the possibility of closure, the worst emitters in China risk additional public anger as new smartphone applications and lower-cost monitoring devices widen access to data on pollution sources.

  54. China’s interest-rate swaps climbed to the highest level in more than a week as better-than-expected economic data damped speculation the central bank will roll out more monetary stimulus to support growth.

  55. Property foreclosures in Hong Kong will double from current levels by the end of next year as a slowing economy hurts borrowers’ ability to service their mortgages, according to an auctioneer with 23 years of industry experience.

  56. The world’s biggest iron ore miners have accumulated an unprecedented amount of pricing power after boosting market share, according to Morgan Stanley, which said they may now have an incentive to use the new-found clout by curbing supply to spur a rally.

  57. Asian corporate credit markets sold off amid concern investors may face more losses after Third Avenue Management at a high-yield fund, just days before the Federal Reserve interest-rate decision.

  58. Emerging-market stocks headed for their lowest close since 2009 as investors exited riskier assets before this week’s Federal Reserve meeting and crude oil slumped. The yuan extended six weeks of declines.

  59. South Korea’s won fell to the lowest in more than two months on speculation China will allow the yuan to weaken after policy makers unveiled a measure that valued it against a broad range of currencies.

  60. China’s stocks climbed the most in almost two weeks as miners rallied on the prospect of production cuts to bolster prices and data showed the world’s second-biggest economy is stabilizing.

  61. China’s yuan fell to a four-year low after the central bank said the currency shouldn’t be measured by its moves against the dollar alone, a statement that is being interpreted as a sign it will allow further declines.

  62. The euro is finding redemption in a market spooked by concern the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate increase since 2006 will fuel further declines in commodities and the linked to their export.

  63. Asian stocks joined a global selloff as concern about turmoil in the credit and commodities markets ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting overshadowed a batch of better-than-expected Chinese economic data.

  64. Japanese stocks fell, with the Topix index closing at the lowest level in more than a month, as a rout in U.S. and European equities spread to Asia. Energy explorers led declines.

  65. Confidence in Japan’s economy among large manufacturers unexpectedly held up in the past few months, suggesting that record corporate profits are compensating for uncertainty about the effects of an expected U.S. rate increase and slowdown in China.

  66. Mario Draghi’s message is starting to sink in.

  67. Good morning!  

    /NG now down 5% at $1.892 – f'ing incredible. Not even looking bouncy but I imagine 5% Rule kicks in when the NYMEX opens and we should at least see a weak bounce to $1.91 or strong at $1.93 but wow – what a complete collapse!  

    /RB dead too, despite oil bouncing a bit:

    It's not the Dollar – people are just giving up on the Global economy.

    Big stick save in Shanghai into the close gave us all of the day's gain.  China devalued their currency further – that's the stimulus (and India added stimulus).

    • China's yuan tumbled further on Monday after the country's central bank continued guiding the currency lower, setting the yuan/dollar official midpoint at its weakest since July 2011.
    • Beijing's introduction of a renminbi exchange rate index – a move that will loosen the yuan's link to the greenback – further weighed on the currency.
    • Meanwhile, data over the weekend showed Chinese industrial production growing at a faster-than-expected pace in November, suggesting that Beijing could reach its growth target of about 7% this year after many rounds of heavy stimulus.
    • Shanghai +2.5% to 3,521.

    Goldman Confirms China's New FX Index Signals Further Yuan Devaluation To Continue

    UBS: China's 'delicate balancing act' points to a slowdown in economic growth

    A Wall Street analyst just nailed the most important thing we don't know about China's economyHowever, there is no formula on how much credit risk China’s financial market can handle by itself without plunging into a full-blown crisis" (emphasis ours).

    /NKD still just 18,900 – even after a 1% bounce. 

    • Confidence at big Japanese manufacturers held steady in the three months to December, with the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey holding at +12, but it looks like some trouble could be brewing ahead.
    • "The deterioration, especially in manufacturers’ outlook, is a bit concerning," said Izumi Devalier, an economist at HSBC Holdings.
    • The survey indicated that companies were taking a cautious stance on the future due to general emerging market concerns and weak Japanese consumer spending.
    • Nikkei -1.8% to 18,883.

    Europe up a bit but no particular news driving it, nor for us so I imagine all we're seeing is weak bounced in the Futures that won't hold up.  


    Getting a bit oversold anyway:


    Mystery of Missing Inflation Weighs on Fed Rate Move

    Policy Makers Fear Rate Increase Will Come Undone

  68. And down we go – hard and fast in the Futures.  17,185, 2,003.50, 4,537.50 and 1,116.50 so far.  Dollar weak too so /NKD 18,800 is a good shorting line (tight stops over) to follow the rest if they go lower but 2,000 on /ES SHOULD be bouncy – look out below if it isn't!  

  69. NG – Wow, looking at the weather forecast it is not promising for a recovery as we had hoped based on this factor. The colder weather coming in a week is already being wiped away with above 60 degree weather only two days later. So the cold isn't going to be here for more than two days this time around before coming back up. Looks like golf for Christmas, after church of course. For me it will be golf and Chinese food.

  70. I went to see Book of Mormon yesterday and laughed my butt off for 2 and a half hours! For those of you who also question religion, but also respect and understand how it gives hope to those who believe, this show is vulgar and some would say sacreligious, but in the end it has heart and the message is that religious writing is not to be taken as literal, but rather as symbolic. Most importantly is that it is just really really funny. The entire audience gave the cast a standing ovation, so that says something. Everyone exited the theater with a huge smile too. If you have the chance. go see it! 

  71. Criags,

    Mormon still gotta see it, spaced while in Piccadilly and caught Beautiful,  The Carole King Musical at the old witch or Aldwych theatre. Olivier winner for Best actress in a supporting role in a musical Lorna Want was excellent. Katie Brayben pulled off Carol King's voice and mannerisms impressively.  A worthy autobiographical musical detailing King's relationship with first husband Gerry Goffin, and their rivalry with another song writing duet that also worked for Don Kirshner,  Barry Mann and Cynthia Weil.

  72. Phil,

    Good mornin…  "NG now down 5% at $1.892 – f'ing incredible. Not even looking bouncy but I imagine 5% Rule kicks in when the NYMEX opens and we should at least see a weak bounce to $1.91 or strong at $1.93 but wow – what a complete collapse! "

    In this forum Aug/Sept, amongst other places, we advised of potential Q116 negative GDP and a Dec flash crash in commods,  due to long term contraction in means of payment growth, seasonal downturn in monetary flows and a "dollar" squeeze.  It's here.

    Last week oil -11%, NG following, both with DXY pulling back for a rest at 97, so its not just the dollar, but the side effects of its wake.  Last year NG at 3.89 with DXY at 86.  Wait until the destructor gets cranked up again via RMB devalue concomitant with further contraction in global economic conditions resulting in further eurodollar squeeze.  TBD.

    Equities are now following, as they historically do, the ongoing (started June 2014) junk HY vortex, which accelerated as the seasonal downturn in monetary flows hit in Oct. Ill-liquidity did not help matters. Possible near term bottom between now and Xmas?  Post asset managers year end portfolio rebalance and window dressing, potential acceleration to the downside 1st week of Jan.  Potential bottoming in mid March, TBD. Out.

  73. NLY below $9.