Courtesy of Mish.
Inquiring minds are investigating a 17 page PDF of the U.S. Economy in a Snapshot by the New York Fed.
The document is formatted poorly. Nearly every line is an image, requiring retyping or images snips of what appears to be (and should be) text.
Here are some image snips along with my comments.
Overview
Mish Comment: Manufacturing is in a recession, inventories are too high, consumer spending is weak, autos are unsustainable and employment is a severely lagging indicator. The “fundamentals” are poor and sentiment is essentially useless.
Mish Comment: Inflation expectations are another totally useless idea, at least within normal bounds. At the point of hyperinflation, when people will buy anything to get rid of money, expectations have some meaning. There are signs of wage growth, but that will hurt profit margins and employment is spending stalls.
Output, Natural Unemployment Rate
Mish Comment: The natural rate of unemployment is that which would exist in a free market without interference from the Fed, from governments, from tariffs, etc. It’s downright idiotic to pretend to know what the natural rate is, in any environment, let alone the highly manipulated state of affairs of today. Similarly, it is equally ridiculous to propose potential GDP levels.
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