Archive for 2015

Swing trading portfolio – week of March 16th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.</p></body></html>

 





The ECB Should End QE Next Month

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by EconMatters.

By EconMatters

 

 

 

Mario Draghi backed into Unenviable Corner

 

This was an instance where the markets pushed Mario Draghi in a direction that really wasn`t necessary, an area he knew deep down was fruitless, and in the end will be proven to be a complete waste of time, forestalling the inevitable structural changes required for Europe to grow in a competitive fashion over the next decade.  


Germany, South Korea & United States

 

Where are the Apple`s and Samsung’s of Europe? This is the real problem for European growth, they don`t produce innovative companies that compete on a global basis. There is no Silicon Valley for Europe. Germany has great engineering minds, and their country’s business prospects reflect their competitive innovation in this area, Germany has been a dominant player in the luxury automobile market for decades. Subsequently the problems facing Europe are really country specific and it revolves around which countries have educational, cultural and business infrastructural systems in place that cultivate competitive and innovative new business models that can compete for market share on a global basis with the likes of China, South Korea, Germany and the United States.

German 10-Year Bond Yield

France Serial Underachiever

 


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Green Light For Empire: Ron Paul’s Short History Of Washington’s Wars Since 1990

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity,

The American Empire has been long in the making. A green light was given in 1990 to finalize that goal. Dramatic events occurred that year that allowed the promoters of the American Empire to cheer. It also ushered in the current 25-year war to solidify the power necessary to manage a world empire. Most people in the world now recognize this fact and assume that the empire is here to stay for a long time. That remains to be seen.

Empires come and go. Some pop up quickly and disappear in the same manner. Others take many years to develop and sometimes many years to totally disintegrate. The old empires, like the Greek, Roman, Spanish and many others took many years to build and many years to disappear. The Soviet Empire was one that came rather quickly and dissipated swiftly after a relatively short period of time. The communist ideology took many decades to foment the agitation necessary for the people to tolerate that system.

Since 1990 the United States has had to fight many battles to convince the world that it was the only military and economic force to contend with. Most people are now convinced and are easily intimidated by our domination worldwide with the use of military force and economic sanctions on which we generously rely. Though on the short term this seems to many, and especially for the neoconservatives, that our power cannot be challenged. What is so often forgotten is that while most countries will yield to our threats and intimidation, along the way many enemies were created.

The seeds of the American Empire were sown early in our history. Natural resources, river transportation, and geographic location all lent itself to the development of an empire. An attitude of “Manifest Destiny” was something most Americans had no trouble accepting. Although in our early history there were those who believed in a powerful central government, with central banking and foreign intervention, these views were nothing like they are today as a consequence of many years of formalizing the power and determination necessary for us to be the policeman of the world and justify violence as a means for spreading a particular message. Many now endorse the idea that…
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The Bipolar Stock Market (In 3 Simple Charts)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Just as the BIS has grown concerned at "the markets' buoyancy hinges on central banks' every word and deed.," the following two charts show, perhaps more worryingly and more clearly that any others just how bipolar (and short-fuse schizophrenic) the world's equity markets have become…

Sentiment has been totally crazy.. swinging from utterly dysphoric to complacently euphoric and back to 'brink of suicide'-like extremes on the words of a few PhDs around the world…

But one thing is clear – actions speak louder than words… Spot The Not-Currently-Printing-Money nation's stock market…

It appears the battle between 'fundamentals' and 'money-printing' is starting to be lost…

But, don;t tell anyone… Because when even the BIS tells you to keep your mouth shut, as it just did very publicly

…a more sobering interpretation is also possible. To my mind, these events underline the fragility – dare I say growing fragility? – hidden beneath the markets' buoyancy.
 
Small pieces of news can generate outsize effects. This, in turn, can amplify mood swings. And it would be imprudent to ignore that markets did not fully stabilise by themselves. Once again, on the heels of the turbulence, major central banks made soothing statements, suggesting that they might delay normalisation in light of evolving macroeconomic conditions.
 
Recent events, if anything, have highlighted once more the degree to which markets are relying on central banks: the markets' buoyancy hinges on central banks' every word and deed.

… you keep your mouth shut.

Charts: Bloomberg





Varoufakis’ “Strategy”: “No Grexit, But Default Inside The Euro, And Stick The Middle Finger To Germany”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In a recently uncovered speech by the Yanis Varoufakis that took place in May of 2013, and which was either ingenious or naive beyond comprehension – we can’t decide – or is simply the contradictory stream of consciousness of a financial expert who has become the epitome of saying one thing now, and its diametrical opposite 5 minutes later, the Greek finance minister explains why he was for a Greek default but against returning to the Drachma.

Following several minutes of tortured logic, Varoufakis explains that devaluation is, drumroll, bad for a country that is on the verge of doing so and seems not quite clear with the concept of currency controls (he applauds Argentina for “sticking the finger to the IMF” and says Greece unlike Buenos Aires doesn’t have a Chinese export market ready: perhaps he should read up on the whole Dry Bulk shipper thing) yet completely ignoring the the very reason why a country devalues in the first place: to implement an external rebalancing – something it should have done years ago – the reason for which is that Greece will soon be if not already is, on the verge of outright social conflict as there is no further room for internal rebalancing, i.e., wages and welfare cuts. Just wait until the people realize their pensions are being used to repay the IMF…

Then Varoufakis, channeling Schauble, proceeds to justify the German way of thinking, namely one where the only thing that matters is the preservation of exiting wealth, an odd position for a self-proclaimed Marxist, and one which forgets that while there is a period of acute pain, the nations that made up all failed currency unions in the past (incidentally, all of them, which is why the Euro too is doomed to fail) somehow managed to survive. The reason being that once exports are cheap enough, any country – even Greece – can finally implement the much delayed reforms and return to growth on its own, and not on the back of German generosity: just how much money will the Troika agree to wire Athens this month?

There is of course an alternative, the one which Varoufakis is warming up to: a less acute, but unlimited and endless pain while existing as a vassal state of the most…
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Ex-US General Defends His “Sanctions Don’t Work, Start Killing Russians” Comment

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Just a few short days after former US Army General Robert Scales explained to FOX News that Ukraine is lost, and acknowledged that an ongoing deployment of American troops to Eastern Europe is unlikely to change the situation, and "the only way [The US] can turn the tide is start killing Russians… killing so many Russians that even Putin’s media can’t hide the fact that Russians are returning to their motherland in body bags,” he has come out defending his statement as the Russian Investigative Committee has opened a criminal probe into his statements. “I’m not concerned at all, I just kind of wish I could take a vacation in Russia but I can guarantee, that’s not going to happen," Scales said, shrugging off Russian 'propaganda' as "a Russian form of war."

As RT reports,

Seemingly unfazed by the outrage his comments on Fox Business Channel have caused, the former US general who thinks the only solution to the Ukraine conflict is to “start killing Russians” has defended his stance, again speaking to Fox.

Robert H. Scales, the retired United States Army major general whose outburst was aired by Fox on Tuesday, did not have to justify his comments as such, as he was invited for a cozy conversation with Fox News’ Greta Van Susteren to jokingly discuss the reaction to his remarks.

Responding to the news that the Russian Investigative Committee has opened a criminal probe into his statements on charges of public calls for starting an aggressive war made in the media, and that his remarks violated article 20 of the United Nations’ International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights that bans any propaganda of war and instigation of discrimination, hatred or violence, Scales shrugged it off by branding it “a Russian form of war.”

“It’s the Russia version of the First Amendment – five years in prison if you say something that makes [Russian President] Vladimir Putin angry,” Scales told Fox News.

The only thing that appeared to bother the military analyst is that he is not going to try any vodka or borsch in Russia due to the criminal investigation.

“I’m not concerned at all, I just kind of wish I could take a vacation in Russia but I can guarantee, that’s not going to happen,” he said.

Scales was seemingly


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Who’s Hurting From Slumping Commodities

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

With the slump in crude prices set to persist thanks to a combination of geopolitical wrangling, supply, and an impending lack of storage, oil producers are feeling the squeeze. More broadly, commodities have been weak across the board and to let Goldman tell it, history suggests a rebound could be a long way out. The following graphics illustrate commodity dependency by country.

Here’s who depends on oil….

…and on metals…

…and on commodities more generally…

…and slumping prices…

…may persist for quite some time…

Via Goldman:

For oil we believe that fundamental adjustment still has some way to go. In the short-term, we expect US inventories will continue to build at a rapid pace and OECD inventories to also start to build over the coming months. Later in 2015H2 we expect this trend to gradually reverse as the market reaches a new normal. For copper, we are more bearish and expect that visible inventories will continue to grow, weighing on prices over 2015-16. On net, our forecasts point to negative total returns for S&P GSCI for the next six months, before prices start to recover and roll yields.

*  *  *

Maps: For interactive versions from The Economist click here.





Artist’s Impression Of The American Voter In 2016

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Presented with no comment…

Source: Townhall via Sunday Funnies





Nazi Archives Will Support Greece’s Escalating Claims For German War Reparations

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As Greeks solemnly remembered the horrific acts of 72 years ago (when the first of 19 trains transported nearly 50,000 local jews to Nazi death camps), the Greek President Pavlopoulos made statements today that he "remains adamant" that "Greece's demands for German war reparations and the occupation loan are active and can be claimed legally." German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has once again ruled out the possibility of a retreat from what Berlin has already officially said on the matter – that the issue has been settled decades ago. But, today the Greek Defense Minister issued a statement confirming that archives that they possess from Nazi armed forces support the country's claims for reparations.

As we previously explained, Kathimerini reports,

Greece's Supreme Court ruled in favor of Distomo survivors in 2000, but the decision has not been enforced. Distomo, a small village in central Greece, lost 218 lives in a Nazi massacre in 1944.

“The law states that in order to implement the ruling of the Supreme Court, the minister of justice has to order it. I believe this permission should be given and I’m ready to give it, notwithstanding any obstacles," Paraskevopoulos told Antenna TV on Wednesday.

“There must probably be some negotiation with Germany,” said Paraskevopoulos, who first announced his intention Tuesday during a Parliament debate on the creation of a committee to seek war reparations, the repayment of a forced loan and the return of antiquities.

But, as Bloomberg now reports, it apoears the Greek legal standing just improved further…

Greece to use archives it possesses of Wehrmacht, or Nazi armed forces, to support country’s claim for war reparations from Germany for damages inflicted during World War II in period 1941-1944, Greek Defense Ministry says in e-mailed statement.

Archives on Nazi occupation of Greece contain >400,000 pages.

Work to digitize microfilms containing archives to be completed soon.

Archives include Wehrmacht officer diary entries, reports to superiors.

As would be expected, GreekReporter notes, Germany is not happy…

The long standing dispute regarding Germany’s war reparations toward Greece have once again topped news headlines in both countries, amid a “cold” period in their relations. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has once again ruled out the possibility of a retreat from what Berlin has already officially said


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Oil Plunges To Lowest Since March 2009 ($43 WTI) As EURUSD 1.05 Battle Continues

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Update: *WTI CRUDE TRADES AT LOWEST INTRADAY PRICE SINCE MARCH 2009 – $43.57


Despite ‘trouble’ in Saudi Arabia, and chatter of SPR buying, it appears the re-opening of all Houston shipping channels, comments from Greenspan, yet another refinery shut (Exxon’s Joliet lost power), and the rapidly filling storage capacity has awakened the realization that the month-long dead-cat-bounce is over in crude. Brent broke below $53.50 and WTI back to a $43 handle (close to the lowest levels in 6 years) at the open. One can only imagine the pressure on USO (Oil ETF) holders as the contango continues to gap wider. EURUSD is teasing the crucial 1.05 level again…

Tumble to a $43 handle briefly…

The lowest in the cycle (based on the April contract)…

as the contango blows sky high…

Looks a little different this time…

And EURUSD is teasing 1.05 once again…

Charts: Bloomberg





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Overpriced tech IPOs sell grand visions but aren't worth their valuations

 

Overpriced tech IPOs sell grand visions but aren't worth their valuations

rblfmr / Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Colley, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

The year of the tech IPO is 2019. Uber went public on May 10 with a US$82.4 billion valuation. Fellow ride-sharing app Lyft floated in March with a U$24 billion valuation and Pinterest had a US$10 billion IPO in April...



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Zero Hedge

Futures Slides As Trade Tensions Escalate

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

S&P futures were lower on Wednesday as investors sought safety in bonds, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc in muted trade amid renewed worries over the U.S.-China spat after reports Washington is considering cutting off the flow of American technology to as many as five Chinese companies including Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology, the world's largest supplier of video surveillance products, expanding the US crackdown on China beyond Huawei to include world leaders in video surveillance. The dollar and 10Y yield were unchanged ahead of today's FOMC Minutes.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Emerging Markets About To Submerge If 3-Year Support Breaks?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Are Emerging Markets about to “Submerge” and head a good deal lower? What they do at (3) will go a long way in answering this question!

Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has been lagging the broad market for the past 15-months. They hit their 50% retracement level of the last year’s highs and lows and falling resistance at (2) recently. The weakness of last has EEM trading below its 200-MA line.

EEM has spent the majority of the past 3-years inside of rising channel (1), which reflects that this trend remains up. The weakness of late has it testing the bo...



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Insider Scoop

Amgen To Buy Danish Collaborator Nuevolution For $167M

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) took a logical step forward in buying a preclinical biotech it has been collaborating with since 2016. 

What Happened

Amgen announced Wednesday an agreement to buy Copenhagen-based Nuevolution for $167 million.

Th...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.

...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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