Archive for 2015

Swing trading portfolio – week of April 27th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

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The Virtual Immunity Of The Well-Connected: Gen. Petraeus Edition

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Ray McGovern via Consortium News,

The leniency shown former CIA Director (and retired General) David Petraeus by the Justice Department in sparing him prison time for the serious crimes that he has committed puts him in the same preferential, immune-from-incarceration category as those running the financial institutions of Wall Street, where, incidentally, Petraeus now makes millions. By contrast, “lesser” folks – and particularly the brave men and women who disclose government crimes – get to serve time, even decades, in jail.

Petraeus is now a partner at KKR, a firm specializing in large leveraged buyouts, and his hand-slap guilty plea to a misdemeanor for mishandling government secrets should not interfere with his continued service at the firm. KKR’s founders originally worked at Bear Stearns, the institution that failed in early 2008 at the beginning of the meltdown of the investment banking industry later that year.

Gen. David Petraeus in a photo with his biographer/mistress Paula Broadwell.

Despite manifestly corrupt practices like those of subprime mortgage lenders, none of those responsible went to jail after the 2008-09 financial collapse which cost millions of Americans their jobs and homes. The bailed-out banks were judged “too big to fail” and the bankers “too big to jail.”

Two years ago, in a highly revealing slip of the tongue, Attorney General Eric Holder explained to Congress that it can “become difficult” to prosecute major financial institutions because they are so large that a criminal charge could pose a threat to the economy – or perhaps what he meant was an even bigger threat to the economy.

Holder tried to walk back his unintended slip into honesty a year later, claiming, “There is no such thing as ‘too big to jail.’” And this bromide was dutifully echoed by Holder’s successor, Loretta Lynch, at her confirmation hearing in late January.

Words, though, are cheap. The proof is in the pudding. It remains true that not one of the crooked bankers or investment advisers who inflicted untold misery on ordinary people, gambling away much of their life savings, has been jailed. Not one.

And now Petraeus, who gave his biographer/mistress access to some of the nation’s most sensitive secrets and then lied about it to the FBI, has also been shown to be too big to jail. Perhaps Holder decided it would be a gentlemanly…
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Russia Deploys Tactical Drones In The Arctic, Exposes Rarely-Seen US Spy Satellite Images

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While the USA is busy killing US civilians and terrorists with its drone program, Russia is set to deploy its own Orlan-10 drones in the oil- and gas-rich Arctic region (reportedly to monitor the climate situation). As SputnikNews reports, Colonel Aleksandr Gordeev stated "the drones' task is to maintain impartial control of the situation in the Russian sector of the Arctic, including the ecological and ice situation in the adjoining sea areas and along the Northern Sea Route." So, passive-agressive? However, Russia also chose this week to release rarely-seen images of a US intelligence satellite which as one analyst notes is provocative (but obscure in its intent other than the growing recognition of US space-based surveillance assets).

As Sputnik News reports, Russian drones will be deployed in the Arctic and along the Northern Sea Route starting May 1 to monitor the climate situation and the deterioration of Arctic ice, as well as to aid in navigation and search and rescue missions.

The drones — Orlan-10s from the Eastern Military District — will be deployed from the Chukotka Peninsula, which lies just opposite Alaska's Seward Peninsula.

The drone unit's mission will be "managing objective control over the situation in the Russian Arctic," added Gordeev. The UAVs will be delivered via heavy Mi-26 transport helicopters, and the station will be manned by graduates of the Defence Ministry’s remote control aviation center.

The announcement of the creation of the drone unit near the city of Anadyr in November came a few months after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the establishment of a separate public body responsible for the implementation of Russian policies in the Arctic and a unified network of naval facilities to host advanced warships and submarines to boost the protection of Russia's interests and borders in the area.

Russia is looking to build up its presence in the oil- and gas-rich Arctic region in accordance with the country's revised military doctrine, signed by President Vladimir Putin in December 2014.

But that was not all that Russia was up to this week… As The Federation of American Scientists
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Boston Fed Admits There Is No Exit, Suggests QE Become “Normal Monetary Policy”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Perhaps it was inevitable. After all, the term “QEfinity” entered the financial lexicon long ago and there were already quite a few commentators out there suggesting that it may now be too late to remove the punchbowl, meaning an “exit” will not only prove difficult, but may well be impossible. 

Take Makoto Utsumi, who oversaw foreign-exchange policy at the Japanese Ministry of Finance from 1989-1991, for example. Utsumi recently said a BoJ QE exit was out of the question “for the foreseeable future” and went on to note that “even the thought of an exit is a nightmare.” Meanwhile, it’s virtually impossible to say what effect Fed tightening will have in both the Treasury and corporate bond markets given the lack of liquidity in both and then there’s EM where carnage unfolded in 2013 after a certain bearded bureaucrat said the wrong thing about the direction of Fed policy. 

Given all of this, we’re not surprised to learn that in a new paper entitled “Let’s Talk About It: What Policy Tools Should The Fed ‘Normally’ Use?”, the Boston Fed is now suggesting that QE become a permanent tool at the disposal of the Fed. After all, “financial stability” depends on it…

During the onset of a very severe financial and economic crisis in 2008, the federal funds rate reached the zero lower bound (ZLB). With this primary monetary policy tool therefore rendered ineffective, in November 2008 the Federal Reserve started to use its balance sheet as an alternative policy tool when it began the large-scale asset purchases. Now attention is turning to how the Fed should transition back to a more conventional monetary policy stance. Largely missing from these discussions about the Fed’s “exit strategy” is a consideration that perhaps it should retain, not discard, the balance sheet tools. 

Yes, oddly missing from the Fed’s exit strategy is the idea that there should be no exit. 

Of course the idea that what was previously “unconventional” policy should now become “conventional” is supported by Fed mission creep because now, the dual mandate has apparently become a “tri” mandate:

Since the Dodd-Frank Act (DFA) has added maintaining financial stability to the Fed’s existing dual mandate to achieve maximum sustainable employment in the context of price stability, it might be beneficial to have several tools


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New Highs To Nowhere On Nothing

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Mark St.Cyr,

It’s official: all the markers of manias both past and present have now been surpassed.

NASDAQ™ new highs? Check. All major Indexes both in actual terms as well as adjusted for inflation? Check. Earnings reports being enthusiastically reported as more “beats” than misses? Check. How about employment data? Yep. Within statistically accepted range of near full employment. How about all the macro data? Is it supportive of such a move? Absolutely! And getting better with each release. For Bad is now good, and worse is – excellent!

All of the above sounds great to the uninitiated person on the street. The only problem is as you may now understand the real truth is: that specious (i.e., superficially plausible, but actually wrong) has replaced true/truth – as fact. And in my opinion not just superficially. It now seems how most, if not all financial matters are reported. At all levels.

It is in this context that explains why the average person as well as rudimentary “investor” in some 401K plan is both confused by what they hear, as well as disinterested. The default position when it comes to topics such as these (i.e., data deciphering) is to not pay any mind and just “hope for the best.” There’s no greater example of this than the unopened 401K statement that arrives in the mailbox.

In times of distress, market gyrations, confusion and more. The default thing to do by nearly all “passive investors” is to – not open the envelope. Using this frame of reference it should leave no wondering why channels like CNBC™ aren’t tuning in viewers, but actually turning them off. So let’s take some of the opening paragraph and put the implied references against the true meanings of what has been reported thus far.

The indexes have all once again hit “never before seen in the history of the markets” highs. Once would infer that the economy should then be tearing along at a pace relative to such strong “market” forces. Yeah, not so much.

One would think an “earnings beat” would mean just that: beat because they earned more money than projected. No. You “beat” because of financial engineering. i.e., GAAP vs Non-GAAP. This is where “fake it till you make it” takes on a whole new


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The 10th Man: Pascal’s Wager

The 10th Man: Pascal’s Wager

By Jared Dillian

Do you believe in God? Stay with me.

I’m an armchair philosopher, and I’ve always wished I’d had the opportunity to be a philosophy major, because I can navel gaze with the best of them. But since then, I’ve come to know some actual philosophy professors, and as it turns out, they tend to not get along with other philosophy professors, which makes departmental politics a little toxic.

I can’t remember exactly when it was that I learned about Pascal’s Wager. 17th-century French philosopher Blaise Pascal postulated that it is rational behavior to believe in God.

Why believe in something for which there is no evidence? The answer lies in decision theory.

If you believe in God and you’re right, you go to heaven. Let’s call this “infinite gain.”

If you believe in God and you’re wrong, the only thing you lose is whatever time you spent in church and/or money you donated. It’s a finite loss.

If you don’t believe in God and you’re right, there is no God, you get to be smug. That is a finite gain.

If you don’t believe in God and you’re wrong, you go to hell. Let’s call this infinite loss.

Here it is in table format:

 

I think most people who understand decision theory will recognize this immediately. So yes, it is indeed rational—meaning in our best interest—to believe in God.

As it turns out, Pascal’s Wager is all over the place in markets.

Best example: Japan in 2012.

There’s this new prime minister, Abe, and this new Bank of Japan governor, Kuroda. They’re going to do this thing called Abenomics. They say they want to print trillions of yen to buy all kinds of assets, which is going to reflate the markets and devalue the currency.

Now ever since the crash of the early 1990s, Japan has had numerous plans to get out of deflation. Japan being Japan, not much changes there, and they end up just getting bogged down in bureaucracy. This has happened at least a dozen times in the last 20 years. So why believe them…
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How The Fed “Engineered A Massive Squeeze In The Markets”? With The Help Of 683x Leverage

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Citi’s Matt King once again hits it out of the ballpark.

After laying out the fundamental problems caused by central planning, namely a historic plunge in yields, and a collapse in global growth…

… a decline in consumer spending and a collapse in investment, offset by a surge in buybacks and new debt issuance.

Matt King presents the only response the central banks have: leave investors with nothing to buy.

Which he summarizes in 6 short words.

But how does buying a couple billion in sovereign bonds every month whether in the US, or Japan or Europe translate into record stock prices even as the global economy has not been this bad since the first Great Depression?After all, there are tens of trillions in securities across the globe (not counting the hundreds of trillions in derivatives).

Simple: when you manage a 693x leverage between a sovereign bond entry and a CCC bond exit, it is perhaps far more surprising that the S&P isn’t artificial orders of magnitude higher.





Rising Police Aggression A Telling Indicator Of Our Societal Decline

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Chris Martenson via PeakProsperity.com,

My first Uber lift was in South Carolina.  My driver was from Sudan originally, but had emigrated to the US 20 years ago.  Being the curious sort, I asked him about his life in Sudan and why he moved.  He said that he left when his country had crumbled too far, past the point where a reasonable person could have a reasonable expectation of personal safety, when all institutions had become corrupted making business increasingly difficult.  So he left.  

Detecting a hitch in his delivery when he spoke of coming to the US, I asked him how he felt about the US now, 20 years later.  "To be honest," he said, "the same things I saw in Sudan that led me to leave are happening here now. That saddens me greatly, because where else is there to go?"

It’s time to face some uncomfortable ideas about the state of civilization in the United States. This country is no longer the beacon of freedom illuminating a better way for the world. Why not? Because it has ceased to be civilized.

The recent spate of police brutality videos and the complete lack of a useful or even sane response by the police unions is shaping my writing here. But it goes well beyond those incidents and extends into all corners of the lives of US citizens now, as police abuse is only one symptom of a much deeper problem.

What do we mean by "civilized?"  Well, take a look at its official definition and see if you note any descriptors that are lacking in present day US culture:

Civilized adjective

1. Culturededucatedsophisticatedenlightenedhumane All truly civilized countries must deplore torture.

2. Politemannerlytolerantgraciouscourteousaffablewell-behavedwell-mannered

(Source)

A civilized society, then, is one that is humane at its core, that knows right from wrong, and which does not need to conduct lengthy ‘internal reviews’ to discover if videotaped brutality is indeed showing illegal abuse.

Let’s begin by examining a few recent cases of brutality, so many of which now exist that I have to narrow the field substantially in the interest of brevity.  I'm going to skip over the one where an unarmed black man was shot five times in the back and coldly murdered by the officer in South Carolina, because that has already (and rightly)…
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Chart Of The Day: Who Is Buying?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

At the end of last month we noted that stocks were entering a dangerous period: the “buyback blackout” that surrounds earnings. As we’ve documented exhaustively, stocks have benefited handsomely from the corporate share repurchase bid and so in the absence of demand from cost-insensitive corporate management teams, and with households and institutions both selling as outlined here, the following chart, which shows that equity flows are aggresively negative, comes as no surprise. Having said that, stocks are at record highs begging the question: “who is buying?”

From BofAML:

Big decoupling in recent weeks between US equity flows and prices (new highs today –…correction risks will grow in absence of fresh inflows in coming weeks.

 

We might ask the following: is there someone (or some central planning agency) out there buying ES or spoofing to push the market higher without ever actually buying anything? One never knows — perhaps Kuroda’s plunge protection is now operating outside of Tokyo.





The Clinton Global ‘Graft’ Initiative (Summarized In 1 Chart)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Via Doug Ross at DirectorBlue blog,

In 2010, when Barack Obama said, "I do think at a certain point you’ve made enough money," he definitely wasn't referring to the Clintons.

Because it wasn't enough for Bill Clinton to sell sensitive missile technology to the Red Chinese for campaign donations. It wasn't enough for Hillary Clinton to sell America's most valuable nuclear technologies to the Russians for "contributions" to her family's personal piggy bank.

That piggy bank, otherwise known as "The Clinton Global Graft Initiative", had an interesting way of doling out the "contributions" it received.
 

The Clintons are a malignant tumor on the body politic. They have a history of doing anything for money — including selling out their own country — and when it comes to their personal bank accounts, there's apparently never enough zeroes.

Hat tip: @amr033.





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons

 

Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...



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Zero Hedge

Silver Specs Signal It's Time To Start Buying

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

The gold futures market took a big step towards bullish — or at least neutral — in the past week. Speculators (usually wrong at big turning points) scaled back their long bets while commercials (usually right at turning points) reduced their net short positions.

...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

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Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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