Archive for 2015

Chinese Stocks Crash Most In 19 Years, Re-Open Limit Down (Despite PBOC Hail Mary)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Carnage…

  • *CHINA STOCK PANIC SELLING TO CONTINUE, CENTRAL CHINA ZHANG SAYS

This leave China's CSI-300 broad stock index futures up just 7% year-to-date…

  • *CHINA CSI 500 STOCK-INDEX FUTURES FALL BY MAXIMUM 10% LIMIT
  • *CHINA CSI 500 STOCK-INDEX FUTURES FALL BY LIMIT FOR 2ND DAY

  • *HKEX DROPS AS MUCH AS 7.3%, MOST SINCE SEPT. 2011
  • *SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX EXTENDS DROP TO 7.5%
  • *SHANGHAI COMPOSITE HEADS FOR BIGGEST 3-DAY DROP SINCE 1996

Carnage-er…

  • *CHINA'S CSI 300 INDEX FALLS 3.4% TO 4,190.3 AT BREAK
  • *CHINA'S SHANGHAI COMPOSITE FALLS 3.8% TO 4,035.48 AT BREAK
  • *CHINA'S CSI 500 STOCK INDEX FUTURES EXTEND LOSSES TO 5.7%
  • *CHINEXT INDEX PLUNGES 7.8% FOR 3-DAY 20% SLIDE

After The People's Daily proclaimed… "investors were moved to tears" thanks to the PBOC's actions…

  • *FOUNDATIONS FOR A-SHARES ARE `SOLID': CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL
  • *CHINA STOCK MARKET TO HAVE 30 YEARS `GOLDEN AGE': SEC. JOURNAL

The bounce is dead. CHINEXT – China's tech-heavy high beta 'Nasdaq' – is down 5-6% today, 19% in 3 days, and 33% from highs in early June…!

In 3 weeks, it has given up half its gain of the year…

*  *  *

All that pent-up demand to be ignited among the farmers and housewives of China thanks to a double rate cut (RRR and benchmark) enabled a mere 2.5% bounce in Chinese stocks at the open which has now completely been erased as Shanghai enters a bear market. As The South China Morning Post's George Chen notes, the most dangerous idea gaining traction in the Chinese stock market is the naïve consensus among ordinary investors that no matter how bad the market gets, the Communist Party will eventually rescue everyone. If not them then, as Chen concludes, "It's time to wake up."

Spot the double-rate cut 'bounce'…

  • *SHANGHAI COMPOSITE SET FOR BEAR MARKET AFTER 20% DROP FROM HIGH

Decidely not what the doctor ordered… and as The South China Morning exclaims, many Chinese investors who have a planned economy mindset, believing government should help them, may well have a surprise coming…

The most dangerous idea gaining traction in the Chinese stock market is the naïve consensus among ordinary investors that no matter how bad the market gets, the Communist Party


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Chinese Stocks Are Collapsing, Despite PBOC Hail Mary

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Carnage…

  • *CHINA'S CSI 300 INDEX FALLS 3.4% TO 4,190.3 AT BREAK
  • *CHINA'S SHANGHAI COMPOSITE FALLS 3.8% TO 4,035.48 AT BREAK
  • *CHINA'S CSI 500 STOCK INDEX FUTURES EXTEND LOSSES TO 5.7%
  • *CHINEXT INDEX PLUNGES 7.8% FOR 3-DAY 20% SLIDE

After The People's Daily proclaimed… "investors were moved to tears" thanks to the PBOC's actions…

  • *FOUNDATIONS FOR A-SHARES ARE `SOLID': CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL
  • *CHINA STOCK MARKET TO HAVE 30 YEARS `GOLDEN AGE': SEC. JOURNAL

The bounce is dead. CHINEXT – China's tech-heavy high beta 'Nasdaq' – is down 5-6% today, 19% in 3 days, and 33% from highs in early June…!

In 3 weeks, it has given up half its gain of the year…

*  *  *

All that pent-up demand to be ignited among the farmers and housewives of China thanks to a double rate cut (RRR and benchmark) enabled a mere 2.5% bounce in Chinese stocks at the open which has now completely been erased as Shanghai enters a bear market. As The South China Morning Post's George Chen notes, the most dangerous idea gaining traction in the Chinese stock market is the naïve consensus among ordinary investors that no matter how bad the market gets, the Communist Party will eventually rescue everyone. If not them then, as Chen concludes, "It's time to wake up."

Spot the double-rate cut 'bounce'…

  • *SHANGHAI COMPOSITE SET FOR BEAR MARKET AFTER 20% DROP FROM HIGH

Decidely not what the doctor ordered… and as The South China Morning exclaims, many Chinese investors who have a planned economy mindset, believing government should help them, may well have a surprise coming…

The most dangerous idea gaining traction in the Chinese stock market is the naïve consensus among ordinary investors that no matter how bad the market gets, the Communist Party will eventually rescue everyone.

The central bank surprised everyone with its announcement on Saturday that it will cut its benchmark deposit and lending rates by 25 basis points – the fourth reduction since November.

Meanwhile, it also decided to reduce the reserve requirement ratio at selected banks to further ease liquidity in the banking system.

The unusual "double cut" move came just 24 hours after more than US$760 billion was wiped off the value of mainland stocks


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The NATO Buildup On Russia’s Border – Groundless Pretext For Cold War Revival

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Patrick Smith via Salon.com,

Have you picked up on the new trope du jour? We are all encouraged to bask in our innocence as we lament the advent of a new Cold War. The thought has been in the wind for more than a year, of course, at least among some of us. But we witness a significant turn, and I hope this same some of us are paying attention.

As of this week, leaders who know nothing about leading, thinkers who do not think and opinion-shaping poseurs such as Tom Friedman are confident enough in their case to sally forth with it: The Cold War returns, the Russians have restarted it and we must do the right thing – the right thing being to bring NATO troops and materiel up to Russia’s borders, pandering to the paranoia of the former Soviet satellites as if they alone have access to some truth not available to the rest of us.

James Stavridis, the former admiral and NATO commander, quoted in Wednesday’s New York Times: “I don’t think we’re in the Cold War again—yet. I can kind of see it from here.”

I can kind of see it, too, Admiral, and cannot be surprised: NATO has missed the Cold War since the Wall came down and the Pentagon’s creature in Europe commenced a quarter-century of wandering in search of useful enemies. At last, the very best of them is back.

The inimitable (thank goodness) Tom Friedman on the same day’s opinion page: “This time it seems like the Cold War without the fun—that is, without James Bond, Smersh, ‘Get Smart’ Agent 86’s shoe phone,” and so on.

Leave it to Tom to recall the single most consequentially corrosive period in American history by way of its infantile frivolities. He is paid, after all, to make sure Americans understand events cartoonishly rather than as historical phenomena with chronology, causality and responsibility attaching to them.

You have here a classic one-two. Stavridis’ successors in the military get on with the business of aggressing abroad and trapping Russia in a frame-up J. Edgar Hoover would admire, while Friedman buries us in marshmallow fluff sandwiches.

A couple of columns back I wondered aloud as to what all the talk of renewed Russian aggression, begun in mid-April, was all about.…
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Here Comes “Prexit”: Puerto Rico In “Death Spiral”, Debts Are “Not Payable”, Governor Refuses To “Kick The Can”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As we noted last night, for a whole lot of time nothing at all can happen under the guise of “containment”… and then everything happens all at once. Because not even two full days after Greece activated the “Grexit” emergency protocol, leading to capital controls, and a frozen banking system and stock market, moments ago the NYT reported that the default wave has jumped the Atlantic and has hit Puerto Rico whose governor Alejandro García Padilla, saying he needs to pull the island out of a “death spiral,” has concluded that the commonwealth cannot pay its roughly $72 billion in debts, an admission that will probably have wide-reaching financial repercussions.

In other words, first Greece, and now Puerto Rico may be in a state of Schrodingerian default. Why the ambiguity? Because while Greece is not technically in default until July 1, Puerto Rico does not even have an option to declare outright default. But that doesn’t mean that the commonwealth will service it.  Quoted by the NYT, García Padilla said “The debt is not payable.” He added that “there is no other option. I would love to have an easier option. This is not politics, this is math.

Funny: math went out the window in 2009 when central bank “faith” took over. The problem is that faith has run out, as has the “political capital” to keep an insolvent global system running, and first Greece now Puerto Rico are finally realizing it.

As the NYT adds, this is “a startling admission from the governor of an island of 3.6 million people, which has piled on more municipal bond debt per capita than any American state.”

More:

A broad restructuring by Puerto Rico sets the stage for an unprecedented test of the United States municipal bond market, which cities and states rely on to pay for their most basic needs, like road construction and public hospitals.

That market has already been shaken by municipal bankruptcies in Detroit; Stockton, Calif.; and elsewhere, which undercut assumptions that local governments in the United States would always pay back their debt.

The immediate implication, as accurately presented by the NYT, is that Puerto Rico’s call for debt relief on such a vast scale could raise borrowing costs for other local governments as investors…
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Artist’s Impression Of This Week In America

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Quite a week…

Source: Cagle Post





“Contained” Greek Contagion Smashes Japanese Banks Lower

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Despite all the ‘smartest men in the room’ proclaiming that Greece doesn’t matter, and Greek risks are “contained”, Japanese stocks are tumbling led by bank stocks. Topix Banks Index has plunged the most since Feb 2014 (and 2nd most since the Taper Tantrum in 2013).

“Contained”… Japanese banks down 3.5% – the most in 18 months

It appears – just as we have said over and over – in the interconnected world of repo, ZIRP, and rehypothecation – size doesn’t matter, it’s collateral chains that matter… and shit’s breaking.

* * *

We await the BoJ’s decision on how much Japanese bank stocks to load on the back of Japanese taxpayers before we proclaim this a problem.

Charts: Bloomberg





The Bush Family Goes “All In” For Number Three (With The Help Of Its Bankers)

Courtesy of Nomi Prins at TomDispatch.com

Money, they say, makes the world go round. So how’s $10 billion for you? That’s a top-end estimate for the record-breaking spending in this 1% presidential election campaign season. But is “season” even the right word, now that such campaigns are essentially four-year events that seem always to be underway? In a political world stuffed with money, it’s little wonder that the campaign season floats on a sea of donations. In the case of Jeb Bush, he and his advisers have so far had a laser-focus on the electorate they felt mattered most: big donors. They held off the announcement of his candidacy until last week (though he clearly long knew he was running) so that they could blast out of the gates, dollars-wise, leaving the competition in their financial dust, before the exceedingly modest limits to non-super PAC campaign fundraising kicked in.

And give Jeb credit — or rather consider him a credit to his father (the 41st president) and his brother (the 43rd), who had Iraq eternally on their minds. It wasn’t just that Jeb flubbed the Iraq Question when a reporter asked him recently (yes, he would do it all over again; no, he wouldn’t… well, hmmm…), but that Iraq is deeply embedded in the minds of his campaign team, too. His advisers dubbed the pre-announcement campaign they were going to launch to pull in the dollars a “shock-and-awe” operation in the spirit of the invasion of Iraq. Now, having sent in the ground troops, they clearly consider themselves at war. As the New York Times reported recently, the group's top strategist told donors that his super PAC "hopes to 'weaponize' its fund-raising total for the first six months of the year."

The money being talked about$80-$100 million raised in the first quarter of 2015 and $500 million by…
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H-OPA!

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.

An ode to a Grecian contagion

Austerity victims are ragin’

These debts can’t be paid

It’s a Klepto charade

And soon WWIII we’ll be wagon’

The Limerick King





How Could The “Greek Experts” Be So Wrong?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

With Greece disintegrating before our very eyes, here are some recent blasts from the recent and not so recent past, showing just how clueless some of the most and least respected, strategists, bureucrats, drama majors, and former Goldman employees have been when it comes to Greece.

First, here is Tom Lee, best known for predicting in August 2008 that stocks will rise “much higher”  by the end of 2008, with the S&P expected to rise to 1450, instead of plunging some 40% lower and wiping out countless people who listened to Lee. From June 23, 2015:

The Greek debt drama is a “sideshow” for U.S. investors, who should be encouraged by signs of a stronger American economy, longtime stock market bull Thomas Lee said Tuesday.

“Greece isn’t the systemic risk that it was three years ago,” he told CNBC’s”

“Focus on U.S. fundamentals, which have been really good.”

Then here is Dennis Gartman, telling what little viewers CNBC has left, that he wants to be a “buyer of European stocks.”

Going further back in time, how can one possibly forget Jean-Claude “When it is serious you have to lie” Juncker’s premature victory lap from October 2014, best summarized in the tweet below:

Oops.

There was, of course, this humorous interlude:

But the single, most glorious example of clueless punditry comes from none other than Mario Draghi himself who back on April 4, 2013 lied to everyone’s face with the following:

Scott Solano, DPA: Mr Draghi, I’ve got a couple of question from the viewers at Zero Hedge, and one of them goes like this: say the situation in Greece or Spain deteriorates even further, and they want to or are forced to step out of the Eurozone, is there a plan in place so that the markets don’t basically collapse? Is there some kind of


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The War On Some Drugs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,

Drugs are a charged subject everywhere. Longtime readers know that although I personally abstain from drugs and generally eschew the company of users, I think they should be 100% legal.

Few people consider how arbitrary the current prohibition is; up until the 1920s, heroin and cocaine were both perfectly legal and easily obtainable over the counter. Some people “abused” them, just like some today “abuse” fat and sugar (because they’re enjoyable).

But drugs are no more of a problem than anything else; life is full of problems. In fact, life isn’t just full of problems; life is problems. What is a problem? It’s simply the situation of having to choose between two or more alternatives. Personally, I believe in people being free to choose, and I rigorously shun the company of people who don’t.

Hysteria and propaganda aside, the fact is that most recreational drugs pose less of a health problem than alcohol, nicotine, or simple lack of exercise.

Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes (of whom I’m a great fan) was an aficionado of opium products. Sigmund Freud enjoyed cocaine. Churchill is supposed to have drunk a quart of whiskey daily. Dr. William Halstead, father of modern surgery and cofounder of Johns Hopkins University, was a regular user throughout his long and illustrious career, which included inventing local anesthesia after injecting cocaine into his skin.

Insofar as recreational drugs present a problem, it arises partly from overuse, which is not only arbitrary, but can be true of absolutely anything. The problem comes, however, mainly from the fact that they’re illegal.

Alcohol provides the classic example. It wasn’t much of a problem in the US before the enactment of Prohibition in 1920, and it hasn’t been one since its repeal in 1933. Making a product illegal artificially and unnecessarily turns both users and suppliers into criminals.

Because illegality makes any product vastly more expensive than it would be in a free market, some users resort to crime to finance their habits. Because of the risks and artificially reduced supply, the profits to the suppliers are necessarily huge – not the simple businessman’s returns to be had from legal products.

Just as Prohibition of the ’20s turned the Mafia from a small underground group of thugs into big business, the War on Drugs
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ValueWalk

#1 Performing Global Macro Hedge Fund Sees More Shorts Opportunities Ahead As China Bursts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Crescat Global Macro Fund update to investors on 1/19/2019

Crescat Global Macro Fund and Crescat Long/Short fund delivered strong returns for both December and full year 2018 in a difficult market. Based on ...



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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

Divisive economics

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author and futurist — explores the records of Democrats and Republicans on the US economy in the following post. For David's latest posts, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog. For his books and short stories, visit his web...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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