Archive for 2015

Chinese Stocks Crash Most Since Feb 2007, Futures Limit-Down After Regulatory Crackdown On Margin-Trading

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

UPDATE:

  • *SHANGHAI COMPOSITE HEADS FOR BIGGEST LOSS SINCE FEBRUARY 2007
  • *CHINA CSI 300 INDEX FUTURES FALL BY 10% LIMIT

*  *  *

Who could have seen this coming?

Having tried and failed once to stem the speculative frenzy in Chinese stocks, regulators took more direct action tonight and suspended three of the biggest securities firms from adding margin-finance and securities lending accounts for three months following rule violations. As Bloomberg reports, Citic Securities, Haitong Securities, and Guotai Junan Securities shares plunged dragguing the entire Shanghai Composite down almost 7% and negative year-to-date.

As Bloomberg adds,

Regulators may have been concerned that stock gains, partly driven by margin financing, are too rapid, according to Hao Hong, a strategist at Bocom International Holdings Co. in Hong Kong. The move came after the Shanghai Composite Index surged 63 percent in six months and brokers including Citic and Haitong announced plans to raise more money to lend to clients.

“Brokerage shares are likely to get hit,” Hong said before the market opened today. “After all, margin financing is one of the reasons for people to be bullish on brokerage stocks, and these stocks have run particularly hard.”

Citic and Haitong, the nation’s biggest brokers by market value, announced plans for share sales that will help fund an expansion of businesses including margin financing. Those two and Guotai Junan were the three largest by assets in a 2013 ranking by the Securities Association of China.

“The regulators are doing this to cool down the stock market,” said Castor Pang, head of research at Core-Pacific Yamaichi in Hong Kong. “Stock market sentiment will definitely go down.”

*  *  *

In addition, China’s currency was sold hard out of the gate – testing 6.2250, its weakest level against the USD this year.





Guest Post: 5 Ways To Unf##k The World

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Gary 'Z'McGee via The Waking Times,

Here’s the thing: the earth is not f##ked. The earth will go on evolving with or without us. In fact, in many ways it is better off without us. No, it’s the human world that’s f##ked. Either we adapt and overcome by making cooperation primary and competition secondary, or we’re f##ked. It really is that simple. Unf##king the world will not be a walk in the park. It will be a complete upheaval of what we think we know about how human beings are “supposed” to live on this planet. We’ll have to turn the tables on our egos, our so called leaders, and even our loved ones. We’ll have to outgrow being indifferent and get used to being different. We’ll have to awaken and clear outdated, multigenerational patterns that need interrogation and then integration at a higher vibration. Here are five ways to attempt unf##king an otherwise f##ked up world. Without further ado, let the unf##king begin.

1.) Unf##k Yourself

“To be human is necessarily to be a vulnerable risk-taker; to be a courageous human is to be good at it.” –Jonathan Lear

lion

Before you can unf##k the world, you have to unf##k yourself and then lead by example. Start by questioning everything, especially yourself. Meditate on everything, and then let it go so you are free to create something new. Do it to the nth degree. Question yourself so hard and so ruthlessly that your bones ache with doubt and your soul trembles with uncertainty. And then let that doubt and uncertainty go. Question your devotion to an unhealthy, unsustainable lifestyle. Then brainstorm on ways to live healthier and more sustainably. Question why you tolerate and defend unjust, inept, and corrupt systems of human governance. Then free-associate ways to make it more just, more competent, and more honest. A mindf##k a day keeps the brainwash away. Question why you’re not doing what it takes too become healthier in mind, body, and soul. Interrogate your ego. Cross-examine your soul. Then take the answers and apply them to the natural world. Get out into nature and have a deep, interdependent conversation with Mother Nature using a language older than words, and then discard what insults her soul. Her soul is your soul, after…
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The PunchLine: “The Oil Crash Is No Small Matter…Repurcussions Will Be Extensive”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Via Abe Gulkowitz’s The PunchLine:

Awkward Beginnings… With all due respect…

What a way to start the year. The crash in oil prices is no small matter. The previous down sweep in energy prices occurred in the midst of the financial crash 0f 2008 and Great Recession. Oil prices soon reversed afterwards and climbed back to dizzying heights, even as world economic and financial recovery remained fragile. This time it would be foolish to bet solely on such a similarly quick snapback. The current bear market for oil may actually be the beginning of a longer and extended period of low commodity prices…

First, the price of oil at $100/bl or above had been an absurdity.

Second, many nations simply cannot afford to curtail pumping oil, even at a loss in the short run.

Third, global growth is proving to be woefully inadequate and uncertain. Even as growth in the U.S. economy is becoming more firmly entrenched, the rest of the major economic engines remain mired, as we have argued for some time, in subpar growth trajectories. The Euro area may be facing another soft patch and remains entangled in both economic and geopolitical crises. The recovery in Japan has been slower than expected. And China continues to grow well below its previous super- track; and it obviously faces headwinds from a volatile real estate sector, awkward debt buildups and massive stockpiles of high-priced commodities.

Fourth, the shale gas revolution has transformed America’s energy markets, with profound effects for economic growth, competitiveness, security, and environmental quality. And the extensiveness of the oil rush in America is also playing a big role in pushing the adjustment on prices.

Naturally, the new weakness in commodity prices will bolster the economies of some countries, but clearly damage others. The strength of the U.S. dollar in the face of a stronger U.S. economy and shift in Fed policy this year, combined with the sharp drop in commodities could expose severe underlying vulnerabilities in situations with significant currency mismatches. The effects of exchange rate movements for the developing world may also become more marked if the duration of the upward climb of the U.S. dollar becomes extended even more. The various repercussions will be extensive; this extremely tense business picture will be detailed herein in 2015.

The…
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Graves Waiting For Bodies: Major War Escalation in Ukraine; In 5 Weeks Ukraine Out of Money

Courtesy of Mish.

We regret having to interrupt feel-good weekend articles with more sobering news. In Ukraine, major battles have broken out over the past couple weeks.

Mainstream media has widely ignored the story because of Greece, then Charlie, and then the Swiss Franc. And of course Western media has no interest in reporting news the rebels are winning.

However, ignoring the story does not make it go away.

Major Rebel Advance

On November 9, 2014, I posted Ukraine Split in Two; Expect Major Rebel Advance.

That advance came later than I expected. But it is here in full force.

Max Keiser provided this accurate headline two days ago: Ukraine Lurches to Full Scale War as Russia Drastically Reduces Gas Supply to EU.

Reader Jacob Dreizin, a US citizen who speaks Russian and reads Ukrainian sent a few emails and videos recently worth posting.

From Jacob …

Hello Mish

Here’s a video that shows a military “cemetery” in Dnepropetrovsk region, Ukraine. Note especially seconds 33 through 51. There are literally hundreds of empty holes in the ground here, waiting for bodies. I read in another source that these graves were dug very recently, probably right before this video was posted on January 8th. Looks like Kiev had been planning an offensive, presumably the one that was just broken up by the rebels in the last few days. I guess it’s cheaper to have the graves dug all at once than to keep calling the backhoe crew over and over.




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Chinese Stocks Crash Following Renewed Crackdown On Margin Accounts

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Who could have seen this coming?

Having tried and failed once to stem the speculative frenzy in Chinese stocks, regulators took more direct action tonight and suspended three of the biggest securities firms from adding margin-finance and securities lending accounts for three months following rule violations. As Bloomberg reports, Citic Securities, Haitong Securities, and Guotai Junan Securities shares plunged dragguing the entire Shanghai Composite down almost 7% and negative year-to-date.

As Bloomberg adds,

Regulators may have been concerned that stock gains, partly driven by margin financing, are too rapid, according to Hao Hong, a strategist at Bocom International Holdings Co. in Hong Kong. The move came after the Shanghai Composite Index surged 63 percent in six months and brokers including Citic and Haitong announced plans to raise more money to lend to clients.

“Brokerage shares are likely to get hit,” Hong said before the market opened today. “After all, margin financing is one of the reasons for people to be bullish on brokerage stocks, and these stocks have run particularly hard.”

Citic and Haitong, the nation’s biggest brokers by market value, announced plans for share sales that will help fund an expansion of businesses including margin financing. Those two and Guotai Junan were the three largest by assets in a 2013 ranking by the Securities Association of China.

“The regulators are doing this to cool down the stock market,” said Castor Pang, head of research at Core-Pacific Yamaichi in Hong Kong. “Stock market sentiment will definitely go down.”

*  *  *





What We Can Learn From The Richest Man In Asia

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Simon Black via Sovereign Man blog,

It was nine months ago when we reported that Li Ka-shing, the richest man in Asia, had sold all of his major assets in China.

In 2013 when he started dumping his Chinese property holdings he was being ridiculed and criticized. Everyone was bullish on China’s real estate market.

It turns out you don’t want to bet against a man with a track record like Li’s.

Li Ka-shing’s grasp for major trends is unmatched. And he demonstrated his shrewdness and insight yet again when China’s real estate market went into correction mode last year.

He got out right at the peak of the market.

He recognized that China’s major credit bubble isn’t sustainable. Behind closed doors, the bosses in Beijing know it too.

A recent report by the chief economist at the Bank of Singapore reveals that the Chinese leadership is desperately trying to conceal the effects of excessive credit and engineer a ‘soft landing’.

And yet Chinese credit expansion continues.

Data from the Bank of International Settlements shows that in 2014 credit expansion’s share of GDP growth soared by 14%.

Since the end of 2008, credit expansion has accounted for 79% of China’s GDP growth.

Historical data and analysis shows that such levels of credit expansion inevitably lead to a lot of bad debts that can’t be repaid.

We’ve already seen first ever Chinese corporate defaults as a result of these policies, and we can expect more.

The long-term trend for China is of course, positive, but this doesn’t mean it’s going to be a smooth ride along the way. Nothing goes up or down in a straight line.

Right now, renminbi assets are falling and renminbi is weakening. Capital is fleeing China in fear of a major credit crunch.

Li was one of the first to spot this trend, and he got out.

Moreover, he’s hedging his bets across the board.

His most recent move is to restructure his investment companies and move them to the Cayman Islands.

Li is being very prudent– moving his money and his assets far away to safe, stable locations so that no single government has control over him.

Until now he was very much dependent on a single jurisdiction. He resides in Hong Kong and has…
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Obama’s “Free College-For-All” Handout Explained (In 1 Cartoon)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

“Other people’s money…”

Source: Indystar via Sunday Funnies





Sneakin’ In To The USA: Remake of Surfin’ USA: Remake of Sweet Little Sixteen

Courtesy of Mish.

For those looking for yet another lighter weekend moment, I can oblige with a trilogy of musical videos to compare.

Rusty Humphries made an entertaining (some may say “politically incorrect” or insensitive) remake of the 1963 Beach Boys hit tune Surfin’ USA, which in turn was actually a remake of Chuck Berry’s 1958 hit Sweet Little Sixteen.

Here are three versions to compare.

Sneakin’ In To The USA – Rusty Humphries

Link if video does not play: Rusty Humphries: Sneakin’ In To The USA

Surfin’ USA – Beach Boys

Link if video does not play: Beach Boys – Surfin Usa (Live, 14 March 1964)

Sweet Little Sixteen – Chuck Berry




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Franc-ly Speaking: What If It Were All A Set Up?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Via Mark St. Cyr,

Everyone loves a good conspiracy theory debate. Regardless of whether you argue for it, or against, there are times when suddenly the ramifications for plausible truth are realized that overshadow the conspiracy. This is where the plot of truth can get far more sinister than the imagined conspiracy ever could.

Since we’re going into a long holiday weekend here in the U.S. I figured it would be instructive to indulge in a few hypothetical arguments while throwing in a little conspiracy theory to make one think about what just might seem at first blush as unthinkable, might actually be more in line with undeniably plausible as time plays out.

For it will only be “in time” that we’ll know more about what prompted certain actions going forward. And what they may mean to all of us down the road if played out in ways most others would never contemplate.

I make that point because when I first thought about the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) declaration to rescind its commitment to the Euro peg, I wondered why when just mere days before they assured their commitment to it.

A decision of this scale and magnitude with all its disruption directly thrust upon its own business infrastructure (i.e. The immediate throwing of profits into the waste-heap via a new exchange rate.) there had to be a reason far more onerous to the SNB than previously imagined. And that’s when my first thoughts went to thinking that maybe the SNB – was set up.

I use the words “set up” intentionally and deliberately. Why? Let’s just say today’s Central Bank cartel seems to have more in common with characters and scenarios in an episode of the Sopranos™ than anything else. Too harsh? Fair point. So let’s remember another indecent not all that long ago for some perspective.

Back in early 2011 then head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Dominique Strauss-Kahn (DSK) suddenly was charged with rape, sexual abuse, and unlawful imprisonment. DSK at the time was considered the rising star in the world of European monetary policy and politics. So much so that he was also considered a credible challenge to Nicolas Sarkozy for the French presidency. In a blink of an eye all that was wiped from the ledgers. And none seemed…
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First It Refused To Bail Out Its Insolvent Banks; Now Iceland Set To Officially Withdraw European Union Application

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Iceland may be a small country, but when it comes to dealing with big problems it is truly the modern equivalent of David in the battle against the status quo Goliath. First, it was Iceland, and only Iceland, refusing to bail out its banks, when every other western nation was being held hostage by those who stood to lose the most from a financial collapse, and even going so far as throwing some of its banking executives in prison. And now, as MBL reports, Iceland’s con­ser­v­a­tive In­de­pen­dence Party will sup­port a res­o­lu­tion in par­lia­ment to for­mally with­draw Ice­land’s ap­pli­ca­tion to join the Eu­ro­pean Union.

As MBL further reports, yhis was con­firmed to­day by Bjarni Benedik­ts­son, Min­is­ter of Fi­nance and the par­ty’s chair­man, in an in­ter­view with the state broad­caster RÚV.

The EU ac­ces­sion talks were put on hold af­ter the gen­eral elec­tions in April 2013. The elec­tions re­sulted in the In­de­pen­dence Party and the cen­trist Progress Party form­ing a coali­tion gov­ern­ment backed by 38 MPs out of 63 in to­tal. Prime Min­is­ter Sig­mundur Davíð Gunnlaugs­son said ear­lier this month that he ex­pected a res­o­lu­tion with­draw­ing the EU ap­pli­ca­tion to be put to the par­lia­ment soon and For­eign Min­is­ter Gun­nar Bragi Sveins­son, who as Gunnlaugs­son be­longs to the Progress Party, has said it would be sense­less not to with­draw the ap­pli­ca­tion. If any­thing Sveins­son has said there are more ar­gu­ments for do­ing so now than a year ago.

The gov­ern­ment put such a res­o­lu­tion to the par­lia­ment last year but the mat­ter was not con­cluded be­fore sum­mer re­cess. Mainly be­cause of a fil­i­busted which was staged by the op­po­si­tion call­ing for a ref­er­en­dum on the is­sue. As a con­se­quence the gov­ern­ment de­cided to post­pone the mat­ter as it con­sid­ered more press­ing to get other is­sues ac­cepted. Pri­mar­ily laws paving the way for a gov­ern­ment pro­gram to re­duce house­hold debts.

“This is a res­o­lu­tion which we sup­ported last year,” Benedik­ts­son said adding that noth­ing had changed since then. Asked if that meant the con­ser­v­a­tives would sup­port a res­o­lu­tion to with­draw the EU ap­pli­ca­tion he replied: “Yes, we would do that just like we did last time.”

So yes, dear Greece: as you prepare for elections whih may result in the first official departure of a European country from the Eurozone, not only has Iceland…
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Zero Hedge

Enemy Of The People?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Via The Zman blog,

There has never been a time when normal people did not know the media was biased and biased in a predictable direction. For every non-liberal in the media, there were at least ten liberals. The ratio was probably higher, but then, as now, some lefties liked to pretend they were independents or some third option.

The media used to invest a lot of time denying they had a bias and an agenda, but the only people who believed them were on the Left, which had the odd effect of confirming they had a bias and an agenda.

...



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Phil's Favorites

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

 

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

Courtesy of 

Shout to Leigh!

On the new Talk Your Book – Josh Brown is joined by Leigh Drogen of Estimize, one of the leading providers of crowdsourced financial and economic data to talk about the trend in corporate profits that could potentially lead to an earnings recession later this year.

What is the thing that Leigh is seeing in the data that Wall Street isn’t yet picking up on? What segment of the stock market is most at risk? Why is the crowd smarter than the narrow consensus of Wall Street analysts?

Check out Estimize ...



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ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold & Silver Testing Important Breakout Levels!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Gold and Silver from a long-term perspective have created a series of lower highs over the past 8-years. Will 2019 bring a change to this trend? A big test is in play!

Gold since the lows in 2016 has created a series of higher lows, while Silver may have created a double bottom.

Gold & Silver are currently facing break attempts a (1) and (2). These falling resistance lines have disappointed metals bulls for the past few years.

The direction of Gold and Silver weeks and months from now should be highly influenced by what each does as they are attempting to break above important resistance levels.

To become a member of Kimbl...



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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

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Digital Currencies

Russia Prepares To Buy Up To $10 Billion In Bitcoin To Evade US Sanctions

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

While the market has been increasingly focused on the rising headwinds in the global economy in general, and China's economic slowdown in particular, while the media is obsessing over daily revelations that Trump may or may not have colluded with Russia to get elected, a far more critical, if underreported, shift has been taking place over the past year.

As we reported in June, whether due to concerns over draconian western sanctions and asset confiscations following the poisoning of former Russian military officer Sergei Skripal, or simply because it wanted to diversify away from the dollar, Russia liquidated virtually all of its Treasury holdings in the late spri...



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Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's failure based on his personality, which was evident years ago. This article, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump became president, in July, 2016, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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