Archive for 2015

Meet The Kagans: Seeking War To The End Of The World

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Robert Parry, via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,


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If the neoconservatives have their way again, US ground troops will reoccupy Iraq, the US military will take out Syria’s secular government (likely helping Al Qaeda and the Islamic State take over), and the US Congress will not only kill the Iran nuclear deal but follow that with a massive increase in military spending.

Like spraying lighter fluid on a roaring barbecue, the neocons also want a military escalation in Ukraine to burn the ethnic Russians out of the east, and the neocons dream of spreading the blaze to Moscow with the goal of forcing Russian President Vladimir Putin from the Kremlin. In other words, more and more fires of Imperial “regime change” abroad even as the last embers of the American Republic die at home.

Much of this “strategy” is personified by a single Washington power couple: arch-neocon Robert Kagan, a co-founder of the Project for the New American Century and an early advocate of the Iraq War, and his wife, Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Victoria Nuland, who engineered last year’s coup in Ukraine that started a nasty civil war and created a confrontation between nuclear-armed United States and Russia.

Kagan, who cut his teeth as a propaganda specialist in support of the Reagan administration’s brutal Central American policies in the 1980s, is now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a contributing columnist to The Washington Post’s neocon-dominated opinion pages.

On Friday, Kagan’s column baited the Republican Party to do more than just object to President Barack Obama’s Iranian nuclear deal. Kagan called for an all-out commitment to neoconservative goals, including military escalations in the Middle East, belligerence toward Russia and casting aside fiscal discipline in favor of funneling tens of billions of new dollars to the Pentagon.

Kagan also showed how the neocons’ world view remains the conventional wisdom of Official Washington despite their disastrous Iraq War. The neocon narrative gets repeated over and over in the mainstream media no matter how delusional it is.

For instance, a sane person might trace the origins of the bloodthirsty Islamic State back to President George W. Bush’s neocon-inspired Iraq War when this hyper-violent Sunni movement began as “Al Qaeda in Iraq” blowing up Shiite mosques and instigating sectarian bloodshed.…
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Can You Hear the Fat Lady Singing? – Part III

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Capitalist Exploits.

By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at

I love what I do! A recent get together filled with blonde stick insects and cologne covered chinos found me subjected to talk about “work at the office”:

“What did you do at work today?”

“Oh, nothing much, tried to look down the new girl’s top for a bit then I made some phone calls, you?”

“Oh, much the normal, searched the web for our next vacation and found I can get a Filipino bride for a grand.”

After only 10 minutes I was ready to leave.

I then received a call from a friend which snapped me back into my world and cemented my decision to leave. This friend has been extremely successful trading Asian credit and I was eager to get his perspective on emerging market debt and in particular China.

This brings me to my thoughts on emerging market currencies and debt, which I’d like to share with you today.

It all starts with the dollar bull market which we’ve discussed previously at length. As Brad mentioned earlier this year:

So while the US current account deficit continues to narrow there is absolutely going to be a shortage of USDs. There is $9 trillion of dollar denominated debt outstanding, well considering that it took a number of years to build up this debt, it is going to take more than just a few months to unwind, more likely a couple of years at least. If the US Federal Reserve were to raise rates this year it sure wouldn’t help the cause, rather it would throw accelerant on the smouldering liquidity fire!

After a brief breather, the dollar looks set to take out new highs:

DXY

This time around the dollar looks set to take out 100 on the Dollar Index. My thoughts today lie in what this may mean for various emerging market asset classes.

Take a look at the MSCI Emerging Markets ETF:

EEM

Support sits at 36 and we’re getting close!

This is a function of a stronger dollar. The larger question lies in where the leverage in emerging markets may lie, remembering that the unwinding of the carry trade will
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Clinton Favorability Plunges, Sanders Surges Amid Classified Emails Scandal

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Despite all her proclamations of new fairness doctrines, false promises of her truthfulness, and exclamations of 'everyday Americanism' Hillary Rodham Clinton is seeing her favorability ratings collapse. As populist as she dares to be, in the face of her donating captors, it appears the everyday American just isn't buying it as Gallup reports just 43% Americans view her favorably (down from 66% just a few years ago) while none other than Bernie Sanders is bounding up the popularity ladder, rising from 12% to 24% favorability in recent weeks.

Via Gallup,

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders' favorable rating among Americans has doubled since Gallup's initial reading in March, rising to 24% from 12% as he has become better known. Hillary Clinton's rating has slipped to 43% from 48% in April. At the same time, Clinton's unfavorable rating increased to 46%, tilting her image negative and producing her worst net favorable score since December 2007.

Clinton, Clint-off…

Clinton maintains a higher absolute favorable rating from Americans than any of her official rivals for the 2016 Democratic nomination. In contrast to the relative prominence of numerous candidates on the Republican side, she remains the only Democratic candidate known well enough by a majority of Americans for them to rate her, which helps Clinton maintain a higher overall favorable score.

Sanders is still an unknown to a majority of Americans, with just 44% able to rate him compared with Clinton's 89%.

Clinton's favorable rating has slipped slightly among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents since April, falling to 74% from 79%. This partly accounts for her overall decline in favorability among the public. The other factor is a drop among non-leaning independents, from 44% to 36%, while her image among Republicans and Republican leaners is essentially unchanged at 14%.

Among Democrats and Democratic leaners, Clinton is currently viewed more favorably by older than younger adults, by nonwhites than whites and by liberals than moderates or conservatives. However, she retains solid majority favorable scores from all of these groups. And she enjoys equally high ratings from men and women as well as in each of the four major regions of the country.

However, as Gallup concludes,

Clinton's national image has taken a slight turn for the worse, which is also evident in her image among Democrats. But she remains the only Democratic


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Chinese Stocks Extend Friday’s Losses Following Drop In Corporate Profits

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Following the weakness in Friday's afternoon (China) session, tonight's open is decidedly shaky as Shanghai Composite open down over 2% and CSI-300 (China's S&P 500) is now down over 5%. This follows a year-over-year drop in China Industrial profits (-0.3%), the first since March as the small bounce in April and May is now done. Commodities are lower and silver saw a minor flash-crash shortlty after China opened.

  • *SHANGHAI COMPOSITE FALLS 2.4% AT OPEN

  • *CHINA JUNE INDUSTRIAL COMPANIES' PROFIT FALLS 0.3% Y/Y

Silver saw a mini flash crash…

But PMs are bouncing back now…

Charts: Bloomberg





It’s Really Very Simple…

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Dmitry Orlov via Club Orlov blog,

There are times when a loud cry of “The emperor has no clothes!” can be most copacetic. And so, let me point out something quite simple, yet very important.

The old world order, to which we became accustomed over the course of the 1990s and the 2000s, its crises and its problems detailed in numerous authoritative publications on both sides of the Atlantic—it is no more. It is not out sick and it is not on vacation. It is deceased. It has passed on, gone to meet its maker, bought the farm, kicked the bucket and joined the crowd invisible. It is an ex-world order.

If we rewind back to the early 1980s, we can easily remember how the USSR was still running half of Europe and exerting major influence on a sizable chunk of the world. World socialist revolution was still sputtering along, with pro-Soviet regimes coming in to power here and there in different parts of the globe, the chorus of their leaders' official pronouncements sounding more or less in unison. The leaders made their pilgrimages to Moscow as if it were Mecca, and they sent their promising young people there to learn how to do things the Soviet way. Soviet technology continued to make impressive advances: in the mid-1980s the Soviets launched into orbit a miracle of technology—the space station Mir, while Vega space probes were being dispatched to study Venus.

But alongside all of this business-as-usual the rules and principles according which the “red” half of the globe operated were already in an advanced state of decay, and a completely different system was starting to emerge both at the center and along the periphery. Seven years later the USSR collapsed and the world order was transformed, but many people simply couldn't believe in the reality of this change. In the early 1990s many political scientists were self-assuredly claiming that what is happening is the realization of a clever Kremlin plan to modernize the Soviet system and that, after a quick rebranding, it will again start taking over the world. People like to talk about what they think they can understand, never mind whether it still exists.

And what do we see today? The realm that self-identifies itself as “The West” is still claiming
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Energy M&A Hits A Brick Wall: Ex Shell-BG Megadeal, Q2 Deal Value Was Lowest Since 2008

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

One of the few catalyst that had helped maintain a consistent bid under energy names in the first half of 2015, despite the dramatic drop in the price of oil in late 2014 and then again in the last several weeks, was persistent fears of an “unexpected” M&A bid which would crush any new or incremental shorts who would otherwise have been delighted to accelerate the downward momentum in the beaten down energy sector.

The result was an epic surge in forward energy P/E multiples: ones which even put the “glamour” multiples to shame, and threatened to overtake the all time fwd multiple high as recently as a few months ago.

However, now that the latest crude dead cat bounce is over, it is time to reassess just how credible a surge in energy M&A activity truly is. The answer, as the EIA’s energy blog reveals, is not very credible at all (especially when considering the disappointing for the industry development when Whiting Petroleum pulled itself off the block when it found no buyer and was forced to massively dilute its shareholders instead).

In fact, if one excludes the gargantuan April merger between Shell and the BG Group, Q2 M&A activity was the slowest in since 2008! If the price of oil continues to decline, one can be certain that Q3 M&A activity will be a dead zone.

From the EIA:

The second quarter of 2015 exhibited the largest amount of oil companies’ merger and acquisition (M&A) activity by value since fourth-quarter 2012. The announced merger between Royal Dutch Shell and BG Group in early April accounted for $84 billion of the $115 billion quarterly total.

Without the Shell-BG merger, however, the value of deals in the second quarter of 2015 would have totaled $31 billion, $18 billion higher than first-quarter 2015, which was the lowest since at least 2008. The 137 deals announced in the second quarter was the lowest number of deals since fourth-quarter 2008 and 42% below the 235 median quarterly number of deals over the previous two years, indicating less breadth of activity.

Companies often merge with or acquire other companies or their assets in an effort to achieve longer term growth, economies of scale, access to new technologies, diversity of market exposure, or a


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Gold’s Two Stories: Paper Markets Collapse… While The Retail Public Buys At A Record Pace

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

We’ve seen some significant swings in precious metals over the last several years and if we are to believe the paper spot prices and recent value of mining shares, one would think that gold and silver are on their last leg. Last weekend precious metals took a massive hit to the downside, sending shock waves throughout the industry. But was the move really representative of what’s happening in precious metals markets around the world? Or, is there an effort by large financial institutions to keep prices suppressed? In an open letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission First Mining Finance CEO Keith Neumeyer argues that real producers and consumers don’t appear to be represented by the purported billion dollar moves on paper trading exchanges.

With China recently revealing that they have added some 600 tons of gold to their stockpiles and the U.S. mint having suspended sales of Silver Eagles due to extremely high demand in early July, how is it possible that prices are crashing?

As noted in Mike Gleason’s Weekly Market Wrap at Money Metals Exchange, while it appears that gold is currently one of the world’s most hated assets, the retail public continues to buy at a record pace:

The paper market is telling one story. But the actual physical bullion market is telling quite another.

The U.S. Mint has sold over 100,000 ounces of American Eagle gold coins so far in July. That’s the highest monthly demand volume registered since April 2013. And that’s just as of this week. There’s still another week left to go before the final sales tally for Gold Eagles comes in for the month of July. It could be one for the record books with 109,000 1-ounce Gold Eagles sold — with bargain hunters purchasing 6% of the U.S. Mint’s production from Money Metals Exchange.

As for Silver Eagles, the U.S. Mint has given up on trying to keep up with demand. After brisk sales during the first week of July, Mint officials suspended deliveries of Silver Eagles to dealers. Sales of the popular coins are set to resume next week. But we expect the Mint will be unable to get its act together and keep up with demand.

Listen: Full Interview With Chris Powell Of The Gold


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In These 13 US Cities, Rents Are Skyrocketing

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Seven years ago, the American homeownership “dream” was shattered when a housing bubble built on a decisively shaky foundation burst in spectacular fashion, bringing Wall Street and Main Street to their knees. 

In the blink of an eye, the seemingly inexorable rise in the American homeownership rate abruptly reversed course, and by 2014, two decades of gains had disappeared and the ashes of Bill Clinton’s National Homeownership Strategy lay smoldering in the aftermath of the greatest financial collapse since the Great Depression.

In short, decades of speculative excess driven by imprudence, greed, and financial engineering and financed by the world’s demand for GSE debt had come crashing down and in relatively short order, a nation of homeowners was transformed into a nation of renters. 

It wasn’t difficult to predict what would happen next.

As demand for rentals increased and PE snapped up foreclosures, rents rose, just as a subpar jobs market, a meteoric rise in student debt, tougher lending standards, and critically important demographic shifts put further pressure on homeownership rates. Now, America faces a rather dire housing predicament: buying and renting are both unaffordable. Or, as WSJ put it last month, “households are stuck between homes they can’t qualify for and rents they can’t afford.”

We’ve seen evidence of this across the country with perhaps the most telling statistic coming courtesy of The National Low Income Housing Coalition who recently noted that in no state can a minimum wage worker afford a one bedroom apartment. 

In this context, Bloomberg is out with a list of 13 cities where single-family rents have risen by double-digits in just the last 12 months. Note that in Iowa, rents have risen more than 20% over the past year alone.

More color from Bloomberg:

Landlords have been preparing to raise rents on single-family homes this year, Bloomberg reported in April. It looks like those plans are already being put into action.

The median rent for a three-bedroom single-family house increased 3.3 percent, to $1,320, during the second quarter, according to data compiled by RentRange and provided to Bloomberg by franchiser Real Property Management. Median rents are up 6.1 percent over the past 12 months. Even that kind of increase would have been welcome in 13 U.S. cities where single-family


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Record Eurozone Borrowing: Public Debt Rises With Recovery; Greece a Small Sideshow Compared to Italy

Courtesy of Mish.

The eurozone is supposedly in a state of recovery. However, in spite of that recovery, public debt and debt-to GGP levels are still rising. Austerity is difficult to find in any realistic sense.

Please consider Eurozone Borrowing Rises to Record as Recovery Remains Weak.

The European Central Bank’s programme of quantitative easing has pushed down interest rates to ultra low levels, encouraging governments to borrow more in the early part of this year, despite turmoil in Greece.

Across countries that use the euro, average debt to gross domestic product reached 92.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2015, up from 92 per cent in the previous quarter and 91.9 per cent in the same period last year, according to figures from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical agency.

Greece remains the EU’s most indebted nation, with debt equal to 169 per cent of annual GDP, but Italy, Belgium, Cyprus and Portugal also carry government debt that exceeds 100 per cent of economic output.

The rise in debt comes despite a pickup in the pace of recovery in the eurozone, with the region’s economy expanding 0.4 per cent in the first quarter of this year — while the US saw a contraction.

Targets vs. Reality

The “Growth and Stability” pact on which the Eurozone was founded limits debt to 60% of GDP and deficits at no more than 3%.

Average Debt-to-GDP is 92.9% and rising.

Eurostat Data shows Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Cyprus, Portugal, Belgium, Slovenia, and Finland all exceeded 3% budget deficit requirement in 2014.

France and Spain have been given warnings and extensions on numerous occasions.

Greece Sideshow

By any realistic measure, Greece is just a sideshow for what is to come.



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ECB and Twitter

At least short term, you may be better off learning how to mine Twitter data for sentiment signals than learning how to value a company.

And note, currently people are paying higher than usual prices for growth stocks. As all cycles come to an end, studying Twitter may warn us of the turning away from stocks such as Zillow to something as boring as, say, gold.


Courtesy of 

The European Central Bank has been particularly busy. It is engaged in an asset buying program. Despite a European Court of Justice ruling highlighting the conflict of interest between its bank supervisory function and role as creditor, the ECB is still part of the Troika official creditors and participated in the marathon negotiating sessions over Greece.  

The ECB is closely monitoring the situation at Greek banks.  It has now increased the ELA ceiling for the second consecutive week, following the Greek government's acceptance of the creditors' demands.
 
Still its staff has time to conduct some fun research.  It released a report that many market participants will find interesting.  It looked at whether Twitter and Google can be useful in predicting the stock market.  It finds that Twitter is better than Google.  It is also better than the survey that the ECB currently uses.  The ECB staff (Huina Mao, Scott Counts and Johan Bollen) concludes that Twitter generates statistically and economically significant predictive value.  The caveats are that it is particularly useful in the US, UK, and Canada.  It is not very useful in China.  Also, the predictive value is only for the very short-term.  
 
The research looks at the use of "bullish" and "bearish" words on tweets and also in Google.  A one-point increase in the sentiment survey index it currently uses translates, for example, into a 2.26 bp move in the Dow Jones Industrials the next day.  In contrast, a one-point increase in its Twitter index is associated with a 12.5 bp move in the Dow.  
 
This research found that Twitter bullishness helps predict Google bullishness.  This suggests that Twitter information precedes Google searches.   It also finds that the bump given to


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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons

 

Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...



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Zero Hedge

Macron Suffers Huge Blow With Defeat To Le Pen

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In what may be the biggest shock from today's European parliamentary elections, President Emmanuel Macron is set to suffer a blow with French voters set to hand a victory to Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, picking the vocal Eurosceptic and nationalist over the former Rothschild banker.

Macron’s En Marche (Republic on The Move) will have just 22.5% of the vote compared with 24% for Le Pen, according to pollsters Ifop. With Macron and Le Pen neck and neck ahead of the elections, the outcome will be a...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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