Archive for 2015

Swing trading portfolio – week of August 24th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.</p></body></html>

 





“Black Monday” – Shanghai Composite Goes Red For The Year, Wiping Out 60% In Gains, 2000 Stocks Limit Down

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

But… but… pension funds are “allowed” to buy stocks.

Judging by the first few minutes of trading in the first thing to open this evening on the mainland, the CSI 300 Index Futures which immediately tumbled by 4% to 3340, China’s attempt to deflect attention from the fact that it did not do a 50-100 bps RRR cut is not doing too well.

Some other indicative levels which are in line with the CSI:

  • Shanghai Composite to open -3.8%, some 130 points below the 3,500 “hard line” support level below which it is a nothing but air back to 2000
  • Shenzhen down 4.3%
  • ChiNext down 5.1%

That said, we expect the National Team to not give up without a big fight, and forcefully step in any minute and do everything in its power to prevent the resultant plunge in the Shanghai Composite which is set to open shortly, or else SHCOMP 2000 beckons, and with it lots and lots of social unrest.

* * *

Update: Shanghai Composite now down -5.7%

And the 3,500 support is now gone.

Update 2: Shanghai Composite crashing, now down 7%

Update 3 and final: SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX ERASES YEAR’S GAINS





US Equity Futures Are Crashing

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Moments ago, without any specific catalyst, US equity futures just plunged when in thin, illiquid tape, a seller took out about 30 consecutive bid levels and as of last check, the ES was down as much as -48 to just 1923, or 2.5%, after being down a modest -13 minutes ago.

It is unclear just what is going on, or whether some prop desk or hedge fund just got tapped out, and/or how the Fed will react but the last time we had action like this, the Fed confused a liquidating SocGen trader for an economic collapse, and cut rates by 75 bps in January of 2008. This time it does not have that luxury.

So while we await the Fed’s response we watch in stunned amazement at a meltdown the likes of which we have not seen in years. Alternatively, if the Fed has nothing up its sleeve, the good news is that limit down for ES is just about 1870, so only 60 points more.

* * *

Update: just when it seemed that a BTFDer had emerged, even more focused selling took ES to new lows, and as of moments ago ES was down as low as 1913, down a whopping 58 points, and officially in 10% correction territory. Also, we are now down to about 50 points from limit down.





10Y Slides Back Under 2%, Precisely What Goldman Said Could Not Happen

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Remember trade #2 from Goldman’s list of top trade recommendations for 2015?

Um, yeah…. well, moments ago the 10Y just dropped below 2% for the first time since April.

End result: tomorrow, Goldman’s cafeteria will once again be proudly serving Kermit flambe.





SocGen: “Markets Have Lost Faith In Monetary Policies”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Aside from a few skeptical strategists, SocGen’s economists such as Michala Marcussen, have been ever so happy to drink the Kool-Aid of a US, and global, recovery that never comes and of a rate hike which until a few weeks ago was “imminent”… and suddenly isn’t even though nothing in the US economy has supposedly deteriorated. Which is why we were very surprised to read a note from none other than Marcussen, in which the formerly hopiumy economist , confirms what we have always known: that sooner or later, everyone will admit the truth.

From SocGen

Less confidence in central bank puts

As noted above, the most notable feature of recent market price action is that there has been no visible comfort taken on risky assets from the idea that central banks may step in with further liquidity injections to alleviate the situation. To our minds, this reflects two main points. First, the fact that the tremendous amounts of liquidity injected to date have produced less than spectacular economic results. Clearly, markets have lost faith in the ability of unorthodox monetary policies to kick start the economy over time. This also fits the findings of academic literature suggestion diminishing returns from subsequent rounds of QE. Second, central banks have clearly become more concerned about the potential risks to financial stability from indefinitely inflating asset prices, suggesting that they may be slower to step in.

Should the current situation – contrary to our expectations – spill over to a full blown crisis, we have little doubt that central banks would act. The lesson from the last crisis was that as the crisis deepened, central banks became more unorthodox in their approach. While part of the debt service costs of the public sector have been monetised (as central banks hand back profits from the carry of government bonds to the government coffers), actual debt has not been monetised. Moreover, political constraints have kept fiscal policy considerations in check in the bulk of the major economies. This raises an interesting question on whether fiscal policy expansion, backed by central banks, becomes the tool to fight the next crisis.

* * *

So… central bank intervention does little (or nothing, as the St. Louis Fed admitted as well), and yet SocGen has “little doubt…
continue reading





Bloomberg’s Commodity Index Just Hit A 21st Century Low

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

After the Bloomberg commodity index crashed overnight, having tumbled for each of the past 4 years, this happened:

  • BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX SLIDES TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1999

Said otherwise, the lowest level in the 21s centiry. 

Yup, rate hike any minute now.





They’re Gonna Need A Bigger Balance Sheet

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

Driving home from work on Friday night I found it terribly amusing listening to the “business journalists” on the local news station trying to explain the 531 point plunge in the Dow and the 1,105 point plummet from the Tuesday high. The job of these faux journalist mouthpieces for the status quo is not to report the facts, analyze the true factors underlying the market, or seek the truth. Their job is to calm the masses, keep them sedated, and paint the rosiest picture possible.

The brainless twit who reported the stock market bloodbath immediately went into the mode of counteracting the impact of what was happening. She said the market is overreacting, as the country has strong job growth, low inflation, a strongly recovering housing market, and an improving economy. The fact that everything she said was a complete and utter falsehood was exacerbated by her willful ignorance of the Fed created bubble leading to the most overvalued stock market in history. How can these people pretend to be business journalists when they haven’t got a clue about stock market valuations and just say what they are told to say?

Anyone who listens to a mainstream media pundit, talking head, or spokes bimbo deserves the reaming they are going to receive. They are paid to lie, obfuscate, spin, and propagandize on behalf of their corporate media executives, who are beholden to Wall Street bankers, mega-corporations, and the government for their advertising dollars. The mainstream media is nothing but entertainment for the masses, part of the bread and circuses designed to distract the dumbed down, iGadget addicted, ignorant masses.

The entire stock market bubble has been created and sustained by the Federal Reserve and their QE and ZIRP schemes to prop up insolvent Wall Street banks, enrich corporate executives, and produce the appearance of a recovering economy. The wealth was supposed to trickle down to the masses, but the trickle has been yellow in appearance and substance. The average American is far worse off today than they were in 2007, with the Greater Depression Part 2 underway.

The Fed balance sheet currently stands at $4.5 trillion. Seven years ago this week it stood at $931 billion. Seven years before that it stood at $641 billion.…
continue reading





This Advice Has Cost Investors a Sh*tload of Money

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Capitalist Exploits.

Perhaps, like me, you’ve been hearing “the dollar is going to die” rhetoric nonstop for the last few years.

Our stance, well documented in these pages here, here, here and here, amongst many, many other posts, has been that for the last 12 months we’ve been long, and remain long – very, very long!

Last week I woke to 3 articles forwarded to me by some friends. I don’t typically pay any attention to these particular investment writers, as I categorize them in the “marketers,” not “professionals” basket.

The reason they were forwarded to me was to point out the duplicity. All three have been in the “dollar’s going to Hell” basket, and equally interesting, literally overnight all three have begun the spin process of changing their tune! The “unexpected” PBOC devaluation of the renminbi has been the catalyst.

Politicians could actually learn a few tricks from these guys! Here are a couple of the rules of their playbook:

Rule number 1: Never admit to being 100% wrong, and;

Rule number 2: Ensure you spin any market event to appear as if, “Why yes, of course we knew all along that the RMB was going to devalue.”

Quite frankly, the articles my friends forwarded me are a pig to read. They are filled with emotionally laden sound bytes, arrogance, inaccuracies, and logic which, like a cardboard cutout, simply goes soggy in the rain. It gives me a headache, and as I read through them, I found myself yelling obscenities at my computer.

It’s commendable in a morbid, psychologically imbalanced sort of way. A few simple Google searches reveal the deception, but no matter, press on we must, and revel in the fact that the vast majority of sheep will never do any meaningful due diligence.

When I see that sort of duplicity, then all credibility disappears for me. We have to be able to acknowledge our mistakes otherwise we’re bound to repeat them.

We’ve gotten things wrong before and we’ll certainly get them wrong again, but I always encourage a debate on the topics. Nothing can be more valuable than a rigorous debate in order to flesh out and better understand. After all, what if I’m wrong?

I have no particular…
continue reading





Another Asia-Pacific Equities Bloodbath

Courtesy of Mish.

Another Asia and South Pacific equity bloodbath is underway this evening (morning or afternoon to those areas).

Here is a chart from roughly 8:30 PM central.

click on chart for sharper image

Mike “Mish” Shedlock



Continue Here





Crude Snaps Below $40 : Gartman Stopped Out Of Oil Long

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

It was inevitable.

As we reported first on Friday, the best contrarian indicator the market has ever known, perhaps even better than the legendary FX titan, Tom Stolper, Dennis Gartman recommended clients invest their monopoly money alongside his, in a short gold, long crude trade: one which has lost about 5%on both legs in 24 hours. To wit:

CRUDE OIL PRICES ARE LOWER BUT WE ARE CHANGING OUR VIEW ON PRICES for having been overtly and rather relentlessly… and very publically… bearish, we are this morning turning bullish of crude oil and we are turning so because the term structure shifts mandate that we do so…. We do not make this statement lightly for this is a material shift in our view of the energy market… a very material shift.

* * *

Amidst the carnage of the global stock markets this morning and even in light of the sustained bear market in crude oil, the narrowing of the contangos in Brent and WTI brings us to become a buyer of crude as noted at length above. We’ll buy a unit of crude oil, split between Brent and WTI, upon receipt of this commentary. We shall, for the moment, give these prices the latitude to move 3% against us, hoping that we can tighten that up when we  return Monday.

Moments ago, the $40 support level for oil finally snapped… 

… and with its so did Gartman’s oil stop loss level, which means Gartman is now stopped out.

Normally this would mean going long, however in this case China has yet to open and following the disappointment of no RRR-cut, tonight’s commodity carnage may just be beginning.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Bloomberg System Goes Down Ahead Of US Open

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

For the second time in a few months, the Bloomberg Terminal system appears to be down and is causing panic across Wall Street ahead of the US market open...

Traders are not happy...

When Bloomberg panels go down 8 minutes before the open...... pic.twitter.com/pqoQoyoBHj

— NOD (@NOD008) January 17, 2019 ...

more from Tyler

Kimble Charting Solutions

Triple Breakout Test In Play For S&P 500!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the rally of late about to run out of steam or is a major breakout about to take place in the S&P 500? What happens at current prices should go a long way in determining this question.

This chart looks at the equal weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) on a daily basis over the past 15-months.

The rally from the lows on Christmas Eve has RSP testing the top of a newly formed falling channel while testing the underneath side of the 2018 trading range and its falling 50-day moving average at (1).

At this time RPS is facing a triple resistance test. Wil...



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Phil's Favorites

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

 

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

Courtesy of Victoria Honeyman, University of Leeds

As the clock ticks down to March 29 2019, all of the political manoeuvring, negotiating, arguing and fighting is coming to a peak. In the two and a half years since the 2016 EU referendum, views on both sides have hardened and agreement still seems as far away as it was the day after the referendum.

With Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement disliked by all sides, and voted down by an unprecedented majority in the House of Commons, everyone is wondering what can and should be done next?

...



more from Ilene

Digital Currencies

Crypto-Bubble: Will Bitcoin Bottom In February Or Has It Already?

Courtesy of Michelle Jones via ValueWalk.com

The new year has been relatively good for the price of bitcoin after a spectacular collapse of the cryptocurrency bubble in 2018. It’s up notably since the middle of December and traded around the psychological level of $4,000... so is this a sign that the crypto market is about to recover?

Of course, it depends on who you ask, but one analyst discovered a pattern which might point to a bottom next month.

A year after the cryptocurrency bubble popped

CCN...



more from Bitcoin

ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



more from Chart School

Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>