Archive for 2015

What Comes After Paper Money, Part 1: Fiat’s Obvious Failure

Courtesy of John Rubino.

Business Insider just posted a Deutsche Bank chart that illustrates the difference between life under the Classical Gold Standard and today’s “modern” forms of money. It’s for the UK only but is a pretty good representation of the world in general:

UK inflation 1500 to 2010

For the first four hundred years depicted here, money was gold and silver — the quantity of which rose at roughly the same rate as the human population. Prices during that time fluctuated, but only modestly by today’s standards, and they always returned to more-or-less the same level. In other words, money held its value for not just years but centuries. It was a fixed aspect of the financial environment and was therefore not a tool of economic policy. Governments and individuals had to adapt to unchanging money rather than forcing money to adapt to political circumstances.

A phase change occurs in the 20th century when the US created the Federal Reserve and World Wars I and II placed survival above monetary stability for most of Europe and Asia. Violent swings in the value of money became the norm, and with the subsequent worldwide adoption of fiat currencies — which governments can create at will — volatility has soared.

Clearly, something bad has happened — and just as clearly something really bad is coming. The question is what. Inflation and deflation both have their articulate proponents, many of whom (adding yet another layer of complexity) expect both but disagree on the order in which they’ll occur. See here, here, here, and here. This is a fascinating debate, with huge implications for personal financial planning. We all have to choose a side with our investments, and the risks and potential rewards have never been higher.

The follow-on question is also fascinating: What do we use for money once fiat currencies inevitably fail? Will central banks adopt some version of Milton Friedman’s computer that increases the supply of base money by a pre-set amount each year, removing the temptation to inflate? Will cyber-currencies like bitcoin turn out to be secure enough to gain worldwide acceptance, eliminating the need for underlying physical reserves? Is a high-tech gold standard possible, in which physical bullion backs an electronic currency…
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Swing trading portfolio – week of February 2nd, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.</p></body></html>

 





Solar Stocks Up Following DOE Report, Higher Crude Oil Prices

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Related FSLR
First Solar Is Approaching A Key Technical Level
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Solar stocks jump amid oil/energy stock rally (Seeking Alpha)

Shares of solar stocks surged Monday following a report on solar energy issued on Friday by the U.S. Department of Energy.

The report noted a 1,200 percent growth in solar capacity since 2008 and projected continued growth in the years ahead.

SolarCity Corp (NASDAQ: SCTY) showed the most strength among U.S. solar companies, trading at $52.18, up 7.35 percent.

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) was also putting in a strong performance and recently traded at $45.14, up 6.66 percent.

SunEdison Inc (NYSE: SUNE) was up 5.13 percent Monday to $19.69 and SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) also traded higher, up 5.06 percent to $25.34.

China-based Daqo New Energy Corp (NYSE: DQ) soared 15.85 percent to $22.80 by Monday afternoon.

Investors may also be buying solar stocks due to Monday’s increase in crude oil prices. WTI traded at $49.35, up 2.30 percent and Brent traded at $54.50, up 2.85 percent. Deutsche Bank, however, claims that oil has little impact on solar demand.

Posted-In: Department of Energy Deutsche BankNews Intraday Update Movers





Credit Suisse Downgraded 3 Mortgage REITs On Compression In Yield Curve, Widening Of Agency MBS Spreads

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related ARR
Worst Performing Industries For February 2, 2015
MLV & Co Downgrades ARMOUR Residential REIT
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Related CYS
Benzinga's Top Downgrades
Maxim Group Downgrades Cypress Sharpridge Investments To Hold
Credit Suisse downgrades three mortgage REITs (Seeking Alpha)

With a compression in the yield curve and a widening of Agency MBS spreads, Credit Suisse sees strong challenges for mortgage REITs ahead for 2015.

In a report published Monday, research analysts Douglas Harter, Sam Choe and Matthew Freedman look into the sector, which, despite the backdrop, still offers attractive investment options like PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (NYSE: PMT), Two Harbors Investments Corp (NYSE: TWO) and New Residential Investment Corp. (NYSE: NRZ). However, the firm decided to trim its target prices for the sector by an average of 4 percent.

In addition, a “challenging new investment environment” led to a downgrade of three stocks to Underperform as analysts expect “these names to underperform the mortgage REIT peers from a total return viewpoint.” The demoted stocks are: Armour Residential REIT (NYSE: ARR) and Cypress Sharpridge Investments Inc (NYSE: CYS) and New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NASDAQ: NYMT).

Credit Suisse’s analysts cite the following reasons for the downgrades:

Armour Residential REIT: “The combination of a negative duration and relatively long dated hedges lead to book value underperformance in a flat curve environment. This combined with a below average historical risk-adjusted return profile lead us to a lower valuation.”

Cypress Sharpridge Investments: “With above average economic return volatility we expect CYS to continue to have one of the lower price to book multiples among the Agency-only REITs leading us to believe the total return will underperform peers.

New York Mortgage Trust: “The continuation of a tight credit spread and low yield environment will make it challenging for NYMT to meaningfully…
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Keefe Bruyette & Woods Upgrades Fifth Third Bancorp To Outperform

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related FITB
Compass Point Lowers Price Target On Fifth Third Bancorp As Bumpy Ride Continues
UPDATE: Fifth Third Bancorp Q4 Earnings Beat Views

Analysts at Keefe Bruyette & Woods upgraded Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ: FITB) from Market Perform to Outperform.

The price target for Fifth Third Bancorp is set to $20.

Fifth Third Bancorp shares have dropped 15.61% over the past 52 weeks, while the S&P 500 index has gained 14.53% in the same period.

Fifth Third Bancorp’s shares fell 0.92% to close at $17.30 on Friday.

Latest Ratings for FITB

Date Firm Action From To
Feb 2015 Keefe Bruyette &amp; Woods Upgrades Market Perform Outperform
Jan 2015 Citigroup Maintains Buy
Jan 2015 FBR Capital Downgrades Outperform Market Perform

View More Analyst Ratings for FITB
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Keefe Bruyette & WoodsUpgrades Analyst Ratings





UBS Downgrades Laboratory Corp. of America To Neutral

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related LH
Morgan Stanley Previews Earnings For Cardinal Health, Quest Diagnostics
Benzinga's Top Upgrades

Analysts at UBS downgraded Laboratory Corp. of America Holdings (NYSE: LH) from Buy to Neutral.

Laboratory Corp shares have surged 30.64% over the past 52 weeks, while the S&P 500 index has gained 14.53% in the same period.

Laboratory Corp. of America’s shares fell 1.15% to close at $114.78 on Friday.

Latest Ratings for LH

Date Firm Action From To
Feb 2015 UBS Downgrades Buy Neutral
Jan 2015 Evercore ISI Upgrades Hold Buy
Jan 2015 Baird Upgrades Neutral Outperform

View More Analyst Ratings for LH
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: UBSDowngrades Analyst Ratings





Morgan Stanley Downgrades Cardinal Health To Equal-weight

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related CAH
Earnings Scheduled For January 29, 2015
Morgan Stanley Previews Earnings For Cardinal Health, Quest Diagnostics

Analysts at Morgan Stanley downgraded Cardinal Health, Inc. (NYSE: CAH) from Overweight to Equal-weight.

The price target for Cardinal Health is set to $86.

Cardinal Health shares have jumped 26.51% over the past 52 weeks, while the S&P 500 index has gained 14.53% in the same period.

Cardinal Health’s shares fell 1.92% to close at $83.19 on Friday.

Latest Ratings for CAH

Date Firm Action From To
Feb 2015 Morgan Stanley Downgrades Overweight Equal-weight
Jan 2015 Deutsche Bank Maintains Hold
Jan 2015 Citigroup Maintains Neutral

View More Analyst Ratings for CAH
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Morgan StanleyDowngrades Analyst Ratings





Credit Suisse Lowers Price Target On Moog As Macro Issues Weigh On Guidance

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related
Earnings Scheduled For January 30, 2015
Earnings Scheduled For October 31, 2014

In a report published Monday, Credit Suisse analyst Robert Spingarn reiterated a Neutral rating on Moog (NYSE: MOG-A), but lowered the price target from $74.00 to $67.00.

In the report, Credit Suisse noted, “Moog reported FQ1’15 EPS of $0.86 which missed consensus by $0.01 despite including ~$0.04 of tax help (from the reinstatement of the 2014 R&D tax credit), by our math. While management described FQ1 as “a slow start to the year,” it classified it as being in-line with guidance, and actually slightly ahead of plan with respect to EPS. However, low oil prices and an associated reduction in exploration ($0.13) activity, slowdown in industrial markets ($0.13), higher tax and other macro effects ($0.07), and the FQ1 high yield bond issuance netted against share repurchases ($0.07) combined to drive a $0.30 (~9.4%) reduction to EPS guidance from $4.25 to $3.85, which excludes future share repurchases (MOOG notes in today’s release that completion of the remaining 9M authority in FY’15 would be worth an incremental $0.10).”

Moog closed on Friday at $70.30.

Latest Ratings for MOG-A

Date Firm Action From To
Nov 2014 Credit Suisse Maintains Neutral
Jan 2014 KeyBanc Downgrades Buy Hold
Jul 2013 DA Davidson Maintains Neutral

View More Analyst Ratings for MOG-A
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Credit Suisse Robert SpingarnAnalyst Color Price Target Analyst Ratings





Benzinga's Top #PreMarket Gainers

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related BLUE
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Related CAMT
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Morning Market Movers

Camtek Ltd.(NASDAQ: CAMT) shares rose 10.97% to $3.44 in pre-market trading. Camtek received a conditional purchase order from Bay Area Circuits for a Gryphon system.

bluebird bio, Inc. (NASDAQ: BLUE) shares jumped 7.63% to $100.00 in pre-market trading following announcement of the FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation for LentiGlobin.

Kamada Ltd. (NASDAQ: KMDA) gained 4.22% to $4.20 in pre-market trading after the company reported encouraging interim data from its Phase 1/2 extension study.

Hawaiian Holdings Inc.(NASDAQ: HA) shares gained 4.17% to $20.25 in the pre-market trading session after tumbling 26.97% on Friday.

Energy XXI Ltd. (NASDAQ: EXXI) shares surged 3.74% to $3.05 in pre-market trading after rising 2.80% on Friday.

Posted-In: PreMarket GainersNews Pre-Market Outlook Markets Movers





Presidio Acquired By Funds Affiliated With Apollo Global Management From American Securities

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related APO
Credit Suisse Takes Neutral Position On 4 Asset Managers
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Presidio Holdings, Inc. (“Presidio” or the “Company”) announced that effective today, the previously announced acquisition of the Company by funds affiliated with Apollo Global Management, LLC (NYSE: APO) (together with its consolidated subsidiaries, “Apollo”) from affiliates of American Securities, LLC has been completed. In accordance with the terms of the definitive agreement, which was announced on December 1, 2014, funds affiliated with Apollo have acquired all outstanding common stock of Presidio. Going forward Presidio Holdings, Inc. will continue to do business as Presidio. Terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

“We are pleased to complete the acquisition and begin moving forward with a new partner. We believe Apollo is a great partner for Presidio, and we are excited about the opportunities this will bring us to continue to scale and grow our business,” commented Bob Cagnazzi, Presidio’s Chief Executive Officer. “We are in an excellent position to build on our industry leadership in advanced IT solutions and services.”

Matthew Nord, Partner at Apollo, said, “Presidio is a world-class business led by an outstanding management team that has consistently delivered for its partners and clients. We are eager to support the Company in its growth initiatives and strategic investment opportunities.”

LionTree Advisors served as financial advisor to Apollo. Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz served as legal counsel to Apollo. Barclays Capital and Credit Suisse Securities served as financial advisors to Presidio. Weil, Gotshal & Manges served as legal counsel to Presidio.

Posted-In: News M&A Press Releases





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Congress is considering privacy legislation - be afraid

 

Congress is considering privacy legislation – be afraid

Courtesy of Jeff Sovern, St. John's University

Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis called privacy the “right to be let alone.” Perhaps Congress should give states trying to protect consumer data the same right.

For years, a gridlocked Congress ignored privacy, apart from occasionally scolding companies such as Equifax and Marriott after their major data breaches. In its absence, ...



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Zero Hedge

Key Events This Week: Trade War, EU Elections, Durables, PMIs And Fed Minutes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Looking at this week's key events, Deutsche Bank's Craig Nicol writes that while the unpredictable nature of US-China trade developments will likely continue to be the main focus for markets again next week, we also have the European Parliament elections circus to look forward to as well as various survey reports including the flash May PMIs which may offer some insight into the impact of trade escalation on economic data. The FOMC and ECB meeting minutes are also due, along with a heavy calendar of Fed officials speaking.

The European Parliament elections will kick off next Thursday with voting continuing into the weekend across the continent, with results expected on Sunday. With the elections surrounded by internal and external challenges for the EU, members di...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will S&P 500 Double Top Derail The Rally?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The rally off the December stock market lows has been strong, to say the least. The S&P 500 rallied 25 percent before hitting and testing the 2018 high.

The old highs proved to be formidable resistance and ushered in some volatility in May… and a 5 percent pullback.

In today’s 2-pack, we look at that resistance level – could that be a double top? We can see similar patterns develop on the S&P 500 Index and its Equal Weight counterpart.

Both indexes are testing short-term Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent decline at point (2).

What takes place here after potential double top highs will be important. Stay tuned...



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Insider Scoop

60 Biggest Movers From Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Gainers
  • Fastly, Inc. (NYSE: FSLY) shares jumped 50 percent to close at $23.99 on Friday. Fastly priced its 11.25 million share IPO at $16 per share.
  • Outlook Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: OTLK) shares climbed 37.3 percent to close at $2.10 on Friday after the stock rose over 68 percent Thursday following an Oppenheimer initiation at Outperform with a price target of $12.
  • Cray Inc. (NASDAQ: CRAY) shares rose 22.5 percent to close at $36.52 after Hewlett Packard Enterpri...


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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.

...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>